3 AIs Predict the 2025 NFL Conference Championships (Bills vs. Chiefs & Commanders vs. Eagles) (Gemini vs. Claude vs. o1-pro)
Last week the AIs were 3/4, 3/4, 2/4 - respectively
Last week the 3 AIs predicted the 2025 NFL Divisional Round Games and: all got the Lions game incorrect (Commanders upset on the road), but both Gemini and Claude were 3/4 (not bad)… o1-pro was 2/4 because it switched its pick from the Bills to the Ravens - and Bills got the job done at home in Buffalo (maintaining their perfect home record).
I think most rational thinkers ended up 2/4 or 3/4… and a few lucky people batted 4/4 with picks… these are high-octane unpredictable matchups. A person going 4/4 and looking like a genius may have a terrible season-long track record or have just gotten lucky (i.e. picked Washington cuz like the QB)… there’s a lot of randomness and unpredictability in the 1-and-done NFL playoffs.
If they had a relatively good track-record throughout the regular season AND had strong logic for picking both Washington and/or Buffalo, then it makes sense to give them proper credit. If just random guessing then we have no reason to put stock into their subsequent picks.
Considering the high level of competition (these are the hottest teams facing off) - all it takes is one fluke mistake (drop, fumble, INT, etc.), a bad call from refs, unexpected mid-game injuries, inclement weather (e.g. snow, sleet, cold) to throw players “off” just enough to alter the outcome.
The “no excuses” mentality for NFL Playoffs is comical… none of the players make excuses anyway. One tiny thing doesn’t go as planned and your team will lose in a relatively even matchup.
And when a team loses they are lambasted by ESPN/FS1 talking heads for a couple weeks, the QB is questioned, the coaching is scrutinized, etc. - but only one team can win… playoffs are a zero-sum scenario… only one Super Bowl winner. Teams take more heat for losing in the Super Bowl than they do for finishing last in the league.
Anyways, done with that min-rant. Back to the AIs for the 2025 Conference Championships (AFC Championship: Bills vs. Chiefs & NFC Championship: Commanders vs. Eagles).
3 AIs Predict 2025 NFL Wild Card Games
3 AIs Predict the 2025 NFL Playoffs (Before Starting)
A.) Gemini (Gemini-Exp-1206): 2025 NFL Conference Championship Predictions
Sunday, January 26th
NFC Championship 2025: (6) Washington Commanders (14-5) at (2) Philadelphia Eagles (16-3)
Score Prediction: Eagles 31, Commanders 27
Odds of Eagles Winning: 60%
Confidence Level: 6/10
Spread: Eagles -5.5 (I'd lean towards taking the points with Washington)
This is the third meeting between these NFC East rivals this season. They split the regular season matchups, with the Commanders winning the most recent game in Week 16, 36-33.
The Commanders are the Cinderella story of the playoffs, led by their rookie sensation QB Jayden Daniels. They've knocked off the Buccaneers and the top-seeded Lions on the road to reach this point.
The Eagles, meanwhile, have been dominant all season, boasting the 2nd-best record in the NFL and a stellar defense (2nd in DVOA). They've overcome the Packers and Rams to get here.
Key Factors & Analysis:
Saquon Barkley vs. Commanders Run Defense: Barkley has been a monster, leading the NFL in rushing yards (2,005) and dominating in the playoffs. The Commanders, while improved, are still vulnerable against the run (22nd in DVOA). Barkley's ability to control the clock and wear down the defense will be crucial. He's averaged 264 total yards and 2 TDs in two games against the Commanders.
Jalen Hurts' Knee: Hurts is expected to play, but his knee injury is a significant concern. Even with a brace, his mobility could be limited. This takes away a key element of his game and makes him more susceptible to pressure, although he has been excellent at avoiding sacks (2nd lowest sack rate). However, in the two games since his return from his concussion, he hasn't thrown for over 200 yards.
Eagles' Offensive Line vs. Commanders' Pass Rush: The Eagles' offensive line is a strength, but the Commanders' pass rush, led by Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler, can be disruptive. If they can pressure Hurts, especially with his potentially limited mobility, they can force mistakes. The Eagles were 6th in pass block win rate in the regular season.
Jayden Daniels' Performance Under Pressure: Daniels has been incredible, exceeding all expectations. However, he's still a rookie facing an elite defense (1st in pass defense DVOA) on the road in the NFC Championship Game. The Eagles are also 1st in pressure rate. His ability to handle the pressure and make plays will be the biggest factor for Washington. Daniels also ranks 5th in adjusted passing DVOA at 97.
Eagles' Secondary vs. Commanders' Receivers: The Eagles have a top-tier secondary, led by Darius Slay and James Bradberry. Terry McLaurin (78 catches, 1,096 yards, 13 TDs) is a proven playmaker, but the Eagles have contained him effectively in the past. Dyami Brown had a good game in the Wild Card but is still unproven.
Turnover Battle: The Eagles have a significant edge in turnover differential (+11 vs. +1). Daniels has thrown 4 interceptions to the Eagles' defense this year. However, they have done a good job protecting the ball in their two playoff games. Forcing turnovers will be crucial for the Commanders.
Coaching: Nick Sirianni has more playoff experience than Dan Quinn, but Quinn has completely turned around the Commanders' franchise. This is a fascinating coaching matchup. Sirianni's Eagles are 1-1 against Quinn's Commanders this year.
Home-Field Advantage: The Linc is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL, giving the Eagles a clear advantage.
Sam Cosmi Injury: Losing their starting right guard to an ACL tear is a big blow to the Commanders' offensive line. Trent Scott will have his hands full against the Eagles' pass rush.
Commanders' Special Teams: The Commanders' special teams have been solid, ranking 9th in DVOA, but they haven't created any game-changing plays. The Eagles, however, are ranked 14th in special teams DVOA.
Commanders Momentum: Beating the top seed, the Lions, on the road is a huge confidence booster.
Eagles Run Defense: The Eagles run defense is ranked 10th.
Sunday, January 26th
2025 AFC Championship: (2) Buffalo Bills (15-4) at (1) Kansas City Chiefs (16-2)
Score Prediction: Chiefs 28, Bills 27
Odds of Chiefs Winning: 54%
Confidence Level: 5.5/10
Spread: Chiefs -1.5 (I'd lean towards taking the points with Buffalo)
This is the marquee matchup of the weekend, featuring two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and two teams with Super Bowl aspirations.
The Chiefs are the defending back-to-back champions, while the Bills are looking to finally overcome their playoff hurdle and reach the Super Bowl.
The Bills defeated the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11 in Buffalo.
Key Factors & Analysis:
Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen: This is a heavyweight battle. Mahomes has the edge in playoff experience and has consistently performed well in the AFC Championship Game. Allen, however, is playing at an incredibly high level and has the ability to single-handedly win games. Mahomes ranks 11th in adjusted passing DVOA, and Allen ranks 2nd.
Chiefs' Defense: The Chiefs' defense is a top-10 unit (8th in DVOA) and has been particularly strong against the pass (4th in DVOA). They will need to contain Allen's big-play ability, both through the air and on the ground. They rank 15th against the run.
Bills' Offense: The Bills have a balanced and explosive offense (6th in DVOA), ranking 2nd in passing and 4th in rushing. James Cook's emergence as a reliable running back has been crucial. They've averaged 34.6 points per game since Week 11.
Chiefs' Offensive Weapons: The Chiefs receiving corps has become more reliable as the season has gone on. Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy have improved the offense. Travis Kelce, while not as dominant as in past years, is still a major threat, especially in the playoffs. He ranks 12th in receiving yards this season.
Bills' Defense: The Bills' defense ranks 11th in DVOA, but they have been vulnerable against the run, especially against mobile quarterbacks. Containing Mahomes' scrambling ability will be key. They are much stronger against the pass, ranking 4th.
Turnover Battle: Both teams are strong in turnover differential, with the Chiefs at +6 and the Bills at +24. Turnovers could be the deciding factor in this game. The Bills are 1st in takeaways, and the Chiefs are 10th.
Coaching: Andy Reid is a legendary playoff coach, while Sean McDermott is still searching for his first Super Bowl appearance. This gives the Chiefs a slight edge.
Home-Field Advantage: Arrowhead Stadium is a significant advantage for the Chiefs.
Chiefs Special Teams: The Chiefs are the stronger special teams unit, ranking 12th in DVOA. The Bills rank 28th in the same category.
This game is a true toss-up, but I give a slight edge to the Chiefs due to Mahomes' playoff experience, the home-field advantage, and their slightly better defense. However, the Bills are more than capable of pulling off the upset, and this game has the potential to be an all-time classic.
B.) Claude 3.5 Sonnet: 2025 NFL Conference Championship Predictions
AFC Championship
Bills (2) vs. Chiefs (1)
Location: Arrowhead Stadium
Line: Chiefs -2.5
Total: 47.5
Prediction: Chiefs 24, Bills 20
Confidence Level: 65%
Key Factors:
Chiefs Defense: Rested unit allowed just 14 points vs. Texans.
Bills Offense: Struggled for consistency vs. Ravens (127 passing yards).
Home Field Advantage: Chiefs are 8-0 at Arrowhead this season; playoff atmosphere is a significant edge.
Coaching: Andy Reid’s teams excel with extra preparation time.
Bills Run Game: James Cook and the ground attack must improve after managing only 67 rushing yards vs. Ravens.
Experience: Mahomes’ extensive playoff experience vs. Josh Allen’s run-dependent offense.
Pass Rush: Chiefs defense is creating havoc (8 sacks vs. Texans).
Rationale: The Chiefs’ defense has been dominant at home and is well-equipped to limit the Bills’ evolving, run-reliant offense. While Josh Allen remains a significant threat, Kansas City’s secondary matches up well. Mahomes’ stellar playoff record at Arrowhead tips the scale. Expect a tightly contested game, but the Chiefs advance.
NFC Championship
Commanders (6) vs. Eagles (2)
Location: Lincoln Financial Field
Line: Eagles -3
Total: 51.5
Prediction: Commanders 31, Eagles 27
Confidence Level: 60%
Key Factors:
Commanders Offense: Explosive performance vs. Lions (45 points).
Daniels’ Form: Playing at an elite level (299 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs vs. Detroit).
Eagles Defense: Struggled in late-season matchups.
Turnovers: Commanders defense forced 4 interceptions vs. Lions.
Eagles Run Game: Saquon Barkley (2,005 regular-season rushing yards) is crucial to their success.
Momentum: Commanders are peaking at the right time.
Weather: Could be a factor in Philadelphia, but both teams are prepared for winter conditions.
Rationale: The Commanders are the hottest team in football, led by Daniels’ MVP-level play and a defense that thrives on creating turnovers. While the Eagles have home field and an effective rushing attack, their defensive vulnerabilities and late-season struggles give Washington the edge. In a high-scoring contest, the Commanders’ dynamic offense prevails.
C.) o1-pro: 2025 NFL Conference Championship Predictions
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP (6) Washington Commanders at (2) Philadelphia Eagles
Context & Storylines
Commanders’ Stunning Upset: Washington blew the top-seeded Lions out of the water 45-31 in the divisional round, riding a massive second-quarter surge and nearly flawless offensive execution. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels was once again outstanding, finishing 22-of-31 for 299 yards and 2 TDs (0 INT). On the ground, the Commanders collectively piled up 182 yards, with Brian Robinson Jr. scoring twice and Jeremy McNichols adding a short touchdown.
Eagles’ Balanced Victory: The Eagles defeated the Rams 28-22 in a cold, sloppy affair that showcased Philly’s unstoppable rushing attack. Saquon Barkley erupted for 205 yards and 2 long TDs (including a 78-yarder to seal the game). Jalen Hurts remained relatively quiet through the air (15-of-20 for 128 yards) and got sacked seven times, injuring his knee in the process. However, Hurts is expected to play. The biggest question: Can he be his full dual-threat self?
Injury Updates
Philadelphia: Saquon Barkley had a minor hand tweak mid-game but returned; he’s fine going forward. Jalen Hurts twisted his left knee on a sack and wore a brace. He finished the game, but it may limit his rushing explosiveness.
Washington: RG Sam Cosmi tore his ACL in the win over Detroit. This is a vital blow to the Commanders’ O-line, which now turns to backup Trent Scott. The interior protection will be tested against the Eagles’ fierce defensive front.
Key Factors
Commanders’ Explosive, Balanced Offense
Jayden Daniels has shown zero fear in the postseason, tossing 4 TDs in two playoff games and consistently torching defenses on read-options or quick hitters. He rarely gets rattled, and the Commanders’ skill group—Terry McLaurin, Dyami Brown, and the RB duo of Robinson/Ekeler—keeps defenses honest.
However, losing Cosmi at right guard could cause major issues in pass-pro against Fletcher Cox, Jalen Carter, and the rest of Philadelphia’s interior D-line.
Eagles’ Elite Ground Game
Saquon Barkley is on a historic tear: 324 rush yards in just 2 playoff games, including monster breakaway TDs. He’s the ultimate trump card if Philly’s pass attack stalls again.
Still, the pass protection for Hurts must handle Washington’s pass rush (led by Frankie Luvu, Jeremy Chinn off blitzes, and Dorance Armstrong). The Commanders sacked Jared Goff only twice but generated big interior disruption with Luvu (5 total pressures).
Hurts’ Health vs. Commanders’ Secondary
The last time Hurts faced Washington fully healthy, the Eagles squeaked out a narrow victory. The Commanders forced multiple turnovers in the other meeting. If Hurts is hobbled, that could hamper the RPO game, something the Commanders have exploited.
Washington’s secondary is opportunistic (4 INT vs. Detroit), with Jeremy Chinn and Mike Sainristil flying around. They’ll hope to bait Hurts into mistakes.
Commanders’ Confidence on the Road
They’ve now won back-to-back playoff road games, averaging over 34 points. They’ve shown they don’t wilt in hostile environments.
For Philadelphia, the “Link” is one of the NFL’s best home-field advantages. The Eagles were 8-1 at home this season.
Prediction & Spread
Likely Game Flow:
Expect Washington to test the Eagles with short, quick passes from Daniels, plus zone-read concepts to mitigate Cosmi’s absence. Washington’s pass game can pop big chunk plays if the Eagles overplay the run.
Philadelphia, conversely, will attempt to exploit the Commanders’ run defense (which ranks middle of the pack) with a heavy dose of Barkley, sprinkled with RPO passes to Dallas Goedert, Devonta Smith, and A.J. Brown.
Turnovers may decide the day. Washington was +5 in turnover margin the last two games combined, but the Eagles are 19-4 under Nick Sirianni when they win the turnover battle.
Spread/Odds & Confidence:
The Eagles opened around -5.5. That line suggests a healthy edge for Philly at home.
Confidence Level: 7/10 that Philadelphia pulls this out, but the Commanders have proven they can shock favorites.
Final Score Projection:
Eagles 27, Commanders 23
Daniels keeps Washington competitive all night, but a couple of key sacks and a forced fumble by the Eagles’ front four help secure the home victory. The Eagles’ experience and Barkley’s unstoppable form seal the deal late in the fourth quarter.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP (2) Buffalo Bills at (1) Kansas City Chiefs
Context & Storylines
Chiefs Eye Three-Peat: Kansas City overcame the Texans 23-14 in the divisional round, a day in which the offense was outgained but the defense took over with eight sacks. Mahomes remains turnover-free, and TE Travis Kelce reemerged with 117 yards and a crucial TD. The Chiefs haven’t lost an AFC Championship Game at home under Patrick Mahomes.
Bills Survive Another Nail-Biter: Buffalo squeaked past Baltimore 27-25, intercepting Lamar Jackson once and stuffing a last-second two-point try. Josh Allen was more potent as a runner (2 TDs) than a passer. The Bills’ pass offense never truly found a deep rhythm, but they protected the football, winning the turnover margin.
Injury Updates
Chiefs: OL Joe Thuney is healthy, which is huge for the interior pass protection. RT Jawaan Taylor is expected to be good to go despite missing practice time recently.
Bills: The secondary came out relatively unscathed. WR Mack Hollins did tweak an ankle mid-game but returned. The O-line should remain intact.
Key Factors
Allen vs. Mahomes
Allen has been unstoppable on the ground in these playoffs, scoring 3 rushing TDs in two games. Meanwhile, Mahomes is the more consistent passer right now with zero picks since Week 11.
The Bills typically prefer 11-personnel but have integrated more heavy looks, especially in the red zone, to fuel their run game. The Chiefs have forced 14 sacks in the last two outings.
Bills’ Offensive Identity
The pass game has looked disjointed at times, partly because they lack a typical alpha WR1. Khalil Shakir has been the top target (6 catches for 67 yards vs. Baltimore), but he’s not a coverage-dominating presence. Buffalo has survived by leaning on Allen’s legs.
Against the Chiefs, that might not be enough. Kansas City’s front seven is athletic and can track Allen in open space.
Chiefs’ Defensive Surge
With 8 sacks in the Divisional Round, Kansas City’s front (Chris Jones, George Karlaftis, Mike Danna, Felix Anudike-Uzomah rotating) is peaking. They’ll aim to limit Allen’s time in the pocket and blow up the run game.
If the Bills’ offensive line can’t handle the interior push, the entire Buffalo offense shrinks.
Josh Allen, Red Zone & Turnovers
Allen has 6 total turnovers in 6 prior playoff losses. The Bills must remain turnover-free to keep pace with the Chiefs.
The Chiefs have gone 8 consecutive games without a single giveaway—an astonishing streak. Buffalo’s defense forced 3 takeaways vs. Baltimore. Something has to give.
Prediction & Spread
Likely Game Flow:
The first half might be low-scoring, as both defenses have proven themselves. Expect Allen to see a lot of disguised blitz packages from Steve Spagnuolo. Meanwhile, Buffalo tries to keep Mahomes off the field with lengthy drives, mixing James Cook runs and quick passes.
In the second half, both QBs find their groove. If Buffalo can coax a fumble or pick from Kansas City’s skill players, that could tilt it. Or if the Chiefs keep the turnover margin at zero, Mahomes will likely engineer a winning final drive.
Spread/Odds & Confidence:
Chiefs are roughly -1.5, the slimmest of edges. The line signals near toss-up.
Confidence Level: 6.5/10 that KC pulls it out. They have home field, the better pass-rush advantage, and unstoppable Travis Kelce in big playoff moments. However, Buffalo’s healthy O-line and Allen’s unstoppable short-yardage prowess keep the margin razor-thin.
Final Score Projection:
Chiefs 28, Bills 27
Allen accounts for 3 total TDs but can’t quite overcome a final Mahomes-Kelce dagger inside 2 minutes. The Chiefs preserve their dream of a three-peat and head to Super Bowl LIX.
Expect two highly entertaining matchups with game-winning plays in the final minutes. The Eagles’ unstoppable ground attack and the Chiefs’ advantage at home in a razor-thin duel give them the nod.
What about my picks?
Would like more info on Hurts’ injury (will likely surface as the week progresses). Commanders look jacked up with high energy, are firing on all cylinders (Daniels, Scary Terry, Ekeler, DEF) and have a good coaching staff.
If Hurts isn’t too dinged, I’m taking Eagles at home… their defense will be the best Commanders have seen this playoffs - by a wide margin… paired with Saquon and offensive weapons, they should be able to get it done.
As for Bills vs. Chiefs… I don’t ever bet against Mahomes/Mahomeboy at home in the playoffs… so Eagles & Chiefs are the pick for a rematch of SB LVII. (That said, I’m pulling for the Bills.)