3 AIs Predict the 2025 NFL Divisional Round: Gemini vs. Claude 3.5 Sonnet vs. o1-pro
Google's Gemini vs. Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet vs. OpenAI's o1-pro (ChatGPT) give their predictions for the 2025 Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs
I had 3 AIs: Gemini Experimental Advanced (1206), Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and o1-pro use data from the entire 2024-2025 NFL season to make predictions for the playoffs before they started. Each did full playoff predictions and Wild Card round predictions.
This week I updated each of the AIs with the results of the Wild Card Round (full box scores, stats, injuries, etc.) along with matchups for the Divisional Round, odds, time of day, conditions, etc. – and had them make new predictions specifically for the Divisional Round.
I don’t think they really have an advantage over most people in predicting these games… most will pick: Chiefs > Texans, Lions > Commanders, Eagles > Rams, and struggle picking the Bills vs. Ravens… and there will be massive hindsight bias for whoever called it correctly.
The reality: Bills vs. Ravens is mostly a coinflip. Both have MVP-caliber QBs.
AI: 2025 NFL Wild Card Predictions
These focused specifically on Round 1 Wild Card Matchups.
AI: Full 2025 NFL Playoff Predictions (Pre-Playoffs)
These focused on making predictions for the entire NFL playoffs before they started.
A.) Gemini-Exp-1206: Experimental Advanced (2025 Divisional Round)
Divisional Round Predictions
Saturday, January 18th
(4) Houston Texans (11-7) at (1) Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Texans 17
Odds of Chiefs Winning: 70%
Confidence Level: 7/10
Rationale & Specifics:
Mahomes' Playoff Experience: Patrick Mahomes' playoff experience (6-0 in the divisional round) is a significant advantage, especially against a young QB like C.J. Stroud.
Chiefs' Defense: The Chiefs' defense is strong overall (8th in DVOA), particularly against the pass (4th in DVOA). They excel at creating pressure (2nd in pressure rate, 8th in sacks, 19.2% sack rate) and have a solid secondary, even with the improvement of Watson.
Texans' Offensive Line: The Texans' offensive line is a major concern without Shaq Mason. The Chiefs' pass rush, led by Chris Jones, could dominate this matchup.
Texans' Wild Card Performance: The Texans' convincing win over the Chargers was impressive, but the Chiefs are a much tougher opponent, especially at Arrowhead. Also, the Chargers were missing some key players in that game.
Chiefs' Offensive Improvement: The addition of Hollywood Brown and the late-season growth of Xavier Worthy has given Mahomes more options in the passing game.
Turnover Battle: The Texans have a strong +10 turnover differential, while the Chiefs are at +6. While Houston is adept at taking the ball away, their offense also gives it away more than the Chiefs do.
Home-Field Advantage: Arrowhead Stadium is a significant advantage for the Chiefs.
Coaching: Andy Reid's playoff experience gives him a clear edge over DeMeco Ryans.
Saturday, January 18th
(3) Baltimore Ravens (13-5) at (2) Buffalo Bills (14-4)
Score Prediction: Bills 27, Ravens 24
Odds of Bills Winning: 56%
Confidence Level: 6/10
Rationale & Specifics:
Elite QB Matchup: Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson is a premier quarterback battle. Both are capable of winning games on their own.
Bills' Offensive Balance: The Bills have a more balanced offense (6th in DVOA), ranking 2nd in passing DVOA and 4th in rushing DVOA. James Cook and Josh Allen provide a potent rushing attack to complement Allen's passing ability.
Ravens' Reliance on the Run: The Ravens are the best rushing team in the NFL (1st in DVOA), but the Bills are strong against the run (5th in DVOA). This could force Lamar Jackson to throw more, especially without Zay Flowers.
Bills' Home-Field Advantage: The Bills are undefeated at home, and the January weather in Buffalo adds to their advantage.
Ravens' Defense: The Ravens have the top-ranked defense in DVOA, but they are slightly more vulnerable against the run. The Bills' balanced offense could exploit this. Their pass rush is also middle of the pack, ranking 21st.
Turnover Battle: The Ravens have a +16 turnover differential, while the Bills are at +24. Both teams are excellent at taking the ball away, with the Bills having a slight edge at forcing fumbles. This is a critical factor that could decide the game.
Coaching: This is a close matchup between two of the best coaches in the league.
Zay Flowers Injury: Flowers' absence significantly hurts the Ravens' passing attack, as he was their leading receiver.
Sunday, January 19th
(6) Washington Commanders (13-5) at (1) Detroit Lions (15-2)
Score Prediction: Lions 34, Commanders 23
Odds of Lions Winning: 74%
Confidence Level: 8/10
Rationale & Specifics:
Lions' Offensive Dominance: The Lions have a historically great offense (2nd in DVOA), ranking 3rd in both passing and rushing DVOA. Jared Goff has been phenomenal at home (111.8 adjusted rating). The potential return of David Montgomery further strengthens their run game.
Commanders' Defensive Struggles: The Commanders' defense, while improved, is still ranked 10th in DVOA, but 28th against the pass. They will have a very difficult time containing the Lions' explosive passing attack.
Jayden Daniels' Inexperience: While Daniels has had a great rookie season, this will be his toughest test yet, facing a strong Lions defense in a raucous playoff atmosphere on the road.
Lions' Home-Field Advantage: Ford Field will be a significant advantage for the Lions.
Turnovers: The Commanders have a +1 turnover differential, but the Lions are relatively good at protecting the ball.
Coaching: Dan Campbell has the Lions playing with incredible confidence and intensity.
Lions' Special Teams: The Lions have the top-ranked special teams unit in the NFL (1st in DVOA), giving them an edge in field position and potentially scoring.
Lions' Defense: While the Lions' defense has been hit by injuries, they have shown improvement, especially against the run (5th in DVOA).
Sunday, January 19th
(4) Los Angeles Rams (11-7) at (2) Philadelphia Eagles (15-3)
Score Prediction: Eagles 26, Rams 20
Odds of Eagles Winning: 62%
Confidence Level: 6.5/10
Rationale & Specifics:
Eagles' Elite Defense: The Eagles' defense is the best unit in this game (2nd in DVOA), ranking 1st against the pass and 10th against the run. They will make it tough for Matthew Stafford.
Saquon Barkley's Impact: Barkley has transformed the Eagles' offense, giving them a dominant rushing attack (2nd in DVOA). He could have a big game against the Rams' run defense (11th in DVOA).
Matthew Stafford's Experience: Stafford is a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, and he has the arm talent to challenge the Eagles' secondary. However, he's facing a very tough defense on the road.
Rams' Offensive Weapons: Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are excellent receivers, but the Eagles' secondary is well-equipped to defend them. The Rams rank 17th in offensive DVOA.
Eagles' Offensive Line: The Eagles' offensive line is one of the best in the NFL, and they should be able to control the line of scrimmage against the Rams.
Home-Field Advantage: The Linc is a very difficult place to play, especially in the playoffs.
Turnovers: The Eagles have a major advantage in turnover differential (+11 vs. -5).
Coaching: Nick Sirianni has consistently had the Eagles performing at a high level.
Rams Pass Rush: The Rams do have a respectable pass rush, ranking 17th in adjusted sack rate, but they may struggle to get to Hurts consistently.
“These Divisional Round games are shaping up to be incredibly exciting. I'm looking forward to seeing how it all unfolds!” - Gemini-Exp-1206
B.) Claude 3.5 Sonnet (Divisional Round Predictions)
Overview: Home teams are favored across all four matchups, but each game has the potential to be competitive based on Wild Card performances.
Key factors: Rest advantages for bye-week teams and weather conditions, which may heavily influence outcomes.
Based on team stats, Wild Card outcomes, and other key factors, here are my Divisional Round predictions:
Ravens (3) @ Bills (2)
Predicted Score: Bills 28, Ravens 24
Odds: Bills -1
Confidence Level: 65%
Rationale:
Bills are 8-0 this season at home in Buffalo.
Late-season improvement in Bills' defense (e.g., held Broncos to 7 points).
Balanced offense with Josh Allen playing efficiently.
Ravens’ strong run game will keep the game close.
Buffalo weather is likely to favor the home team.
Texans (4) @ Chiefs (1)
Predicted Score: Chiefs 31, Texans 23
Odds: Chiefs -8
Confidence Level: 75%
Rationale:
Chiefs are rested after a bye week.
Arrowhead Stadium playoff atmosphere is a tough test for C.J. Stroud.
Texans impressed against the Chargers but face a much stronger opponent in the Chiefs.
Andy Reid’s teams excel after bye weeks historically.
Commanders (6) @ Lions (1)
Predicted Score: Lions 34, Commanders 27
Odds: Lions -9.5
Confidence Level: 70%
Rationale:
Lions are rested and dominant at home this season.
Commanders’ defense has shown vulnerabilities.
Commanders QB Daniels may keep it competitive with his dual-threat ability (268 yds, 2 TDs vs. Bucs).
Lions’ explosive offense, especially at home, will prove difficult to stop.
Rams (4) @ Eagles (2)
Predicted Score: Eagles 27, Rams 23
Odds: Eagles -6
Confidence Level: 65%
Rationale:
Eagles’ dominant run game led by Saquon Barkley (2,005 rushing yards).
Eagles’ defense is creating pressure and forcing turnovers (3 INTs vs. GB).
Rams’ balanced offense will challenge the Eagles, but Philly’s defense has improved.
Significant home-field advantage for the Eagles.
Playoff experience tilts in the Eagles’ favor.
C.) o1-Pro: 2025 NFL Divisional Round Predictions
I had to ask o1-Pro about why it changed some of its predictions from pre-playoffs when the matchups ended up the same.
For example: It went with Bills over Ravens before the playoffs, but after factoring in performances in Round 1 – it switched to the Ravens for that matchup and it explained why with good rationale. (You can read its response after the predictions.)
Its predicted scores also differed slightly from pre-playoffs (despite same matchups) as a result of the new information from Wild Card Round outcomes.
(AFC) (3) Ravens @ (2) Bills
Matchup/Context
Ravens: Coming off a 28-14 defeat of Pittsburgh. Lamar Jackson (16-of-21, 175 yards, 2 TD) looked sharp, Derrick Henry hammered 186 yards on the ground, and the Baltimore defense stifled the Steelers.
Bills: Dominated Denver 31-7. Josh Allen was nearly flawless (20-of-26, 272 yards, 2 TD), while Buffalo forced Denver into 2-of-9 on third down.
Key Factors
Ground Game vs. Ground Defense: Baltimore’s lethal run game (Jackson + Henry) meets a Bills front that’s been respectable vs. designed runs. However, Jackson’s scrambles could be the X-factor.
Buffalo’s Balanced Offense: Allen can beat a strong Ravens secondary, especially if Buffalo’s O-line protects as well as it did vs. Denver.
Turnovers: Both teams are good at forcing mistakes; any short field could swing it.
Prediction
Score: Ravens 28, Bills 27
Spread/Odds: If the line is about Bills -1 or Ravens -1, I’ll call this an upset Ravens (+1).
Confidence: 6/10 (super close matchup).
(AFC) (4) Texans @ (1) Chiefs
Matchup/Context
Texans: Handled the Chargers 32-12. Stroud threw for 282 yards, the pass rush battered Justin Herbert (four INT). But this is a big step up in Arrowhead.
Chiefs: Well-rested 15-2 defending champs. They beat Houston in Week 16 (27-19). Andy Reid is historically great off a bye.
Key Factors
Chiefs Pass Protection: Houston’s pass rush is formidable (Danielle Hunter, Will Anderson Jr., Denico Autry). But the Chiefs’ OL has been top 10, and Mahomes is lethal when he buys time.
Offensive Firepower: KC added midseason receiving depth (DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown returning from injury, Xavier Worthy emerging). Texans’ offense likely lacks the consistent punch to keep pace unless it forces multiple turnovers.
Prediction
Score: Chiefs 30, Texans 20
Spread/Odds: Chiefs favored around -8; I’ll lay the points with KC.
Confidence: 8/10 (Houston’s pass rush might cause some headaches, but Mahomes at Arrowhead is tough to unseat).
(NFC) (6) Commanders @ (1) Lions
Matchup/Context
Commanders: Beat Tampa Bay 23-20 behind Jayden Daniels’ 268 passing yards, plus timely stops by the defense.
Lions: 15-2, explosive offense. Jared Goff (4,600+ yards), Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs (16 TD). They’re undefeated at home since midseason.
Key Factors
Daniels vs. Lions’ Blitz: The Lions’ defense was battered by injuries late in the year but still got a big pass-rush performance in Week 18. Daniels excelled vs. the blitz in the regular season, so that cat-and-mouse game is critical.
Explosive Offense: Detroit is near unstoppable scoring at Ford Field. Washington must keep pace and/or generate takeaways.
Prediction
Score: Lions 31, Commanders 23
Spread/Odds: Lions favored around -8 or -9.
Confidence: 7/10 (Commanders are feisty, but the Lions at home typically score 30+).
(NFC) (4) Rams @ (2) Eagles
Matchup/Context
Rams: Defense is blossoming (9 sacks in the 27-9 thrashing of Minnesota). Matthew Stafford’s big-play passing can still punish secondaries.
Eagles: Fended off Green Bay 22-10. Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and a top-2 defense in points allowed.
Key Factors
Eagles Defense: They rank near the top in yards/play, plus they have a fearsome pass rush (Jalen Carter, Josh Sweat, etc.). If they hurry Stafford, LA’s offense might stall.
Rams’ Defensive Front: Jared Verse, Kobie Turner & Co. hammered Minnesota. They’ll need to replicate that against an Eagles line that’s arguably the league’s best.
Prediction
Score: Eagles 27, Rams 20
Spread/Odds: Eagles favored around -6.
Confidence: 7.5/10 (The Rams are on a surge, but Philly at home plus a better overall roster tips the scale).
Summary of Divisional Round Picks
Ravens (3) upset Bills (2), 28-27
Chiefs (1) handle Texans (4), 30-20
Lions (1) defeat Commanders (6), 31-23
Eagles (2) outlast Rams (4), 27-20
That sets up an AFC Championship of (3) Ravens @ (1) Chiefs, and an NFC Championship of (2) Eagles @ (1) Lions — with plenty more drama to come!
Explanation (o1-pro): Switching from Bills to Ravens after picking Bills pre-playoffs…
I can definitely see how flipping from picking the Bills to now picking the Ravens raises eyebrows—especially after I initially had Buffalo winning that hypothetical matchup.
Essentially, the short answer is yes, their respective wild-card performances factored significantly into my revised projection. Here’s the thought process:
Margins Were Already Slim: Before the wild-card round, I saw Bills vs. Ravens as close to a 50–50 toss-up. In the regular season, both finished with elite scoring offenses and top-10 defenses. It wouldn’t take much—an injury update, a new wrinkle on offense, a lopsided wildcard showing—for me to swing my pick from one side to the other.
Baltimore’s Wild-Card Dominance: The Ravens’ 28–14 victory over Pittsburgh was more imposing than the final score indicates:
Offensively: Lamar Jackson looked crisp (16/21, 2 TD), and Derrick Henry piled up 186 yards rushing. Pittsburgh’s typically stout run defense simply had no answers.
Defensively: They stifled Russell Wilson (just 14 completions) and allowed only one offensive touchdown, consistently generating pressure and limiting big plays.
Buffalo’s Matchup vs. Denver: Yes, the Bills beat the Broncos 31–7, which on paper is a blowout. However, the slow start (went down 7–0) plus a couple of missed opportunities and the fact that Denver’s offense was essentially shut down in the second half gave me pause. Buffalo still looked impressive, but not so unstoppable that I’d label them a prohibitive favorite against a surging Ravens squad.
Adjusting to Current Health and Momentum: A big factor in the playoffs is “who’s hot” and “who’s healthy.” The Ravens look as close to full strength as they’ve been all year, and Henry’s performance affirms that he might be unstoppable behind a cohesive O-line. Meanwhile, Buffalo has had some banged-up players come and go (a few in the secondary, plus tight ends), so I’m less certain the Bills can hold Baltimore’s run game in check.
The QB Scramble X-Factor: If Buffalo’s defense is susceptible anywhere, it’s stopping QB scrambles—particularly in big moments. And Lamar Jackson is arguably the most dangerous scramble threat in football. One or two explosive plays of that nature could swing the difference in a close divisional playoff.
In short:
Before wild-card weekend, I had it pegged at maybe Bills by a field goal.
After seeing how dominant Baltimore’s run game and pass defense looked against the Steelers—and how the Bills, despite a 31–7 score, had a couple of early hiccups—I flipped to Ravens in a nail-biter (28–27 type of game).
It’s less an indictment of Buffalo and more of a tip of the cap to how “complete” the Ravens seem right now—and how a single weekend’s worth of data points can nudge an already razor-thin margin from one side to the other.
What about my picks? The human: Chiefs, Lions, Eagles, Ravens. And no I didn’t read the AIs before making them. I don’t care if I’m right or wrong. These are my gutshot picks. The general consensus is Chiefs, Lions, Eagles… and then flip a coin. I happen to think Ravens are a bit better but I’d like to see Bills win.