Gemini-Exp-1206: NFL Wild Card 2025 Predictions
Google's Gemini-Exp-1206 Predicts Round 1 of the 2025 NFL Playoffs
I fed every piece of data I could find: team stats, player stats, advanced stats/metrics, records, injury reports, complete schedule/scores for the entire 2024-2025 season, coaching, etc. - nothing was left out.
Gemini was also given the betting odds for each matchup and the full rules for 2024-2025 (there were some rule changes from last year). I then told it to consider everything and make the highest accuracy predictions possible for the Wild Card Round of the 2025 NFL Playoffs.
I didn’t really guide it much or tell it which specific variables I thought were most important… but I said reflect on the modern rules, historical trends from recent years, etc. Anyways, its predictions are below.
Related: O1-Pro (ChatGPT) 2025 NFL Wild Card Predictions
Wild Card Round Predictions (Gemini 2.0 Advanced Edition)
Saturday, January 11th
(5) Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at (4) Houston Texans (10-7)
Score Prediction: Chargers 27, Texans 24
Odds of Chargers Winning: 58%
Confidence Level: 6/10
Rationale & Specifics:
Quarterback Advantage: Justin Herbert is the more proven and higher-rated quarterback in this matchup. His adjusted passing DVOA of 101.7 significantly outpaces C.J. Stroud's 88. While Stroud had a remarkable rookie season, Herbert's experience and ability to make plays under pressure give the Chargers an edge in a playoff atmosphere. Also, Stroud's worst stretch of the season came when he was dealing with a nagging rib injury. It's worth wondering if this new leg injury will become a nagging injury.
Offensive Line Disparity: The Chargers' offensive line, bolstered by the addition of All-Pro center Bradley Bozeman, ranks 11th in pass block win rate. The Texans' offensive line, especially with the likely absence of starting right guard Shaq Mason (knee), is a significant weakness. This could lead to Stroud facing consistent pressure, hindering his ability to make plays downfield.
Chargers' Defensive Strength: The Chargers' defense, ranked 14th in overall DVOA and 7th in passing defense DVOA, is well-equipped to challenge Stroud and the Texans' passing attack. Their pass rush, led by Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa, could be particularly disruptive. The Texans are only ranked 22nd in pass block win rate.
Texans' Home-Field and Turnovers: Houston does have the home-field advantage, but their home record wasn't overwhelmingly dominant during the regular season. The Texans excelled at creating turnovers (+10 differential), and any takeaways could swing the momentum in their favor. The Chargers were also very good at forcing turnovers at +12.
Coaching: Jim Harbaugh's arrival in Los Angeles brings a renewed sense of discipline and a winning pedigree. While DeMeco Ryans has done an excellent job in Houston, Harbaugh's experience in big games could be a factor.
Injuries: The Chargers are missing WR Josh Palmer, but the bigger concern is the Texans' offensive line. Shaq Mason is out, and his absence will be felt. For the Texans, losing Mason to a grade 2 MCL sprain is a massive blow. The potential absence of John Metchie III (questionable) further hurts their offensive depth.
Run Game: While both teams have capable running backs, the potential loss of J.K. Dobbins could be a big issue for the Chargers given that Gus Edwards isn't as good of a runner as him.
Saturday, January 11th
(6) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at (3) Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Steelers 13
Odds of Ravens Winning: 75%
Confidence Level: 8/10
Rationale & Specifics:
Ravens' Historically Great Offense: The Ravens finished the regular season with the 4th-best offensive DVOA in history. This is a dominant unit led by the likely MVP, Lamar Jackson.
Quarterback Mismatch: Lamar Jackson (119.6 adjusted rating) vs. Russell Wilson (96 adjusted rating) or Justin Fields. Neither Steelers QB has shown the consistency or explosiveness to match Jackson, especially in a hostile playoff environment.
Steelers' Offensive Woes: The Steelers' offense has been anemic all year, ranking 31st in offensive DVOA, 29th in passing DVOA, and 25th in rushing DVOA. They struggle to move the ball consistently and score points. Facing the top-ranked defense in DVOA, these problems will be amplified.
Ravens' Defensive Dominance: The Ravens' defense is not just good; it's historically great. They rank 1st in overall defensive DVOA and 6th in passing defense DVOA. They pressure the quarterback effectively (9.8% sack rate) and force turnovers.
Derrick Henry's Debut: The addition of Derrick Henry to the Ravens' already potent rushing attack (1st in DVOA) makes them even more dangerous. He provides a physical presence that will wear down the Steelers' defense. The Steelers were just outside the top half in rushing defense DVOA (14th).
Home-Field Advantage: M&T Bank Stadium is a tough place to play, especially in the playoffs. The Ravens have a clear home-field advantage.
Turnovers: Both teams have positive turnover differentials, but the Ravens' defense is more adept at creating takeaways.
Coaching: John Harbaugh has a wealth of playoff experience and has consistently outcoached Mike Tomlin in recent years.
Injuries: Zay Flowers is out for the Ravens, which hurts their passing attack, but they still have sufficient weapons. The Steelers will be without WR Roman Wilson, which hurts their already struggling offense. They are also questionable on whether they will have guard Mason McCormick.
Steelers Run Defense: The Steelers were right in the middle of the road in terms of run defense DVOA.
Sunday, January 12th
(7) Denver Broncos (10-7) at (2) Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Score Prediction: Bills 34, Broncos 20
Odds of Bills Winning: 70%
Confidence Level: 7/10
Rationale & Specifics:
Josh Allen's Playoff Form: Josh Allen is a proven playoff performer with a knack for making big plays. He finished the regular season with the 2nd-highest adjusted passing DVOA (97).
Bills' Offensive Versatility: The Bills rank 6th in offensive DVOA, 2nd in passing DVOA, and 4th in rushing DVOA. They can beat you in multiple ways, making them a tough matchup for any defense.
Broncos' Defensive Strengths and Weaknesses: The Broncos' defense improved significantly as the season progressed, finishing 4th in defensive DVOA. However, they are stronger against the pass (4th in DVOA) than the run (8th in DVOA). The Bills' ability to run the ball with James Cook and Allen could exploit this weakness.
Bo Nix's Inexperience: While Bo Nix has shown promise, he's a rookie making his first playoff start in a hostile environment. He's more likely to make mistakes under pressure.
Home-Field Advantage: Highmark Stadium in January is a significant advantage for the Bills. The cold weather and passionate fans create a difficult atmosphere for visiting teams.
Turnovers: The Bills have a slight edge in turnover differential (+8 vs. +6).
Coaching: Sean McDermott has built a consistent winner in Buffalo, and his playoff experience gives him an advantage over Sean Payton, whose recent playoff record is less impressive.
Broncos' Kicking: While Will Lutz has been reliable, he hasn't been automatic, and any missed kicks could be costly in a playoff game.
Bills Defense: The Bills were 11th in defensive DVOA.
Injuries: The Broncos will be without OT Frank Crum and potentially RB Tyler Badie. The Bills only have KR Brandon Codrington questionable. This gives the Bills a slight edge in terms of health.
Sunday, January 12th
(7) Green Bay Packers (11-6) at (2) Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Score Prediction: Eagles 31, Packers 24
Odds of Eagles Winning: 65%
Confidence Level: 7/10
Rationale & Specifics:
Jalen Hurts' Health and Performance: Hurts has been cleared to play, which is huge for the Eagles. His dual-threat ability (630 rushing yards, 14 TDs) is a major asset. He ranks 8th in adjusted passing DVOA (102).
Eagles' Offensive Line vs. Packers' Pass Rush: The Eagles have a top-tier offensive line, ranking 6th in pass block win rate. This will be crucial against a Packers pass rush that features Rashan Gary and Kenny Clark.
Packers' Run Defense: The Packers' defense, while 7th in overall DVOA, ranks 24th against the run. This is a significant weakness against an Eagles team that loves to run the ball with Saquon Barkley and Hurts.
Jordan Love's Development: Love has been outstanding, ranking 6th in adjusted passing DVOA (97). However, he's facing a tough Eagles defense on the road in his first playoff start. The loss of Christian Watson removes a key deep threat.
Eagles' Secondary: The Eagles' secondary, led by Darius Slay and James Bradberry, is capable of making plays. However, they have been inconsistent at times this season.
Home-Field Advantage: Lincoln Financial Field is a very difficult place to play, especially in the playoffs.
Turnovers: The Eagles have a major advantage in turnover differential (+11 vs. +12).
Coaching: Nick Sirianni has more playoff experience than Matt LaFleur and has shown the ability to make adjustments.
Injuries: Christian Watson is out for the Packers. The Eagles are dealing with an injury to A.J. Brown, but he is expected to play. However, his effectiveness might be limited.
Sunday, January 12th
(6) Washington Commanders (12-5) at (3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
Score Prediction: Buccaneers 30, Commanders 27
Odds of Buccaneers Winning: 55%
Confidence Level: 6/10
Rationale & Specifics:
Baker Mayfield's Continued Success: Mayfield has revitalized his career in Tampa Bay, leading them to a division title. He finished the regular season 4th in adjusted passing DVOA (106).
Buccaneers' Offensive Balance: The Buccaneers have a balanced offense, ranking 7th in passing DVOA and 13th in rushing DVOA. The potential return of Cade Otton would further strengthen their passing attack. Rachaad White has also been solid.
Commanders' Defensive Struggles: The Commanders' defense ranks 18th in DVOA but has been particularly vulnerable against the pass, ranking 28th in pass defense DVOA.
Home-Field Advantage: The Buccaneers have been strong at home, and the Commanders are a relatively young team making their first playoff appearance under this core.
Jayden Daniels' Health: While Daniels is expected to play, his quad injury is a concern. His mobility is a key part of his game, and any limitations could hinder the Commanders' offense.
Turnovers: The Commanders have a slight edge in turnover differential (+6 vs. -2).
Coaching: Todd Bowles' defensive mind and playoff experience give him a slight edge over Dan Quinn.
Cade Otton Injury: Otton's potential absence would hurt the Buccaneers' passing game, as he's their second-leading receiver. However, his full participation in practice on Friday is encouraging.
Bucs' Pass Rush: The Buccaneers have a strong pass rush led by Vita Vea and Shaquil Barrett, and they could cause problems for Daniels, especially if his mobility is limited.
Monday, January 13th
(5) Minnesota Vikings (14-3) at (4) Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
Score Prediction: Vikings 27, Rams 24
Odds of Vikings Winning: 52%
Confidence Level: 5/10
Rationale & Specifics:
Vikings' Defensive Prowess: The Vikings boast the 2nd-ranked defense in DVOA, excelling in both pass rush (7.1% sack rate) and coverage. They are particularly strong against the pass, ranking 13th in pass defense DVOA.
Matthew Stafford's Vulnerability: While Stafford has playoff experience and a strong arm, he has been prone to turnovers throughout his career. The Vikings' defense, with its strong pass rush and opportunistic secondary, could force him into mistakes.
Justin Jefferson's Impact: Jefferson is arguably the best receiver in the NFL, and he will be a matchup nightmare for the Rams' secondary. He has the ability to take over a game single-handedly. The Vikings also have a very good tight end in T.J. Hockenson.
Rams' Offensive Line Concerns: The Rams' offensive line has been inconsistent, and the health of right tackle Rob Havenstein (questionable) is a major concern. If he's limited or out, the Vikings' pass rush could have a field day.
Vikings' Running Game: The Vikings have a potent rushing attack led by Aaron Jones, ranking 15th in rushing DVOA. This balanced offense will be difficult for the Rams to defend.
Turnovers: The Vikings have a significant advantage in turnover differential (+12 vs. -2). This could be the deciding factor in a close game.
Coaching: Kevin O'Connell has done an excellent job in his first two seasons as head coach, leading the Vikings to consecutive division titles. Sean McVay is a proven winner, but his team has been less consistent this year.
Rams' Home-Field: While the Rams have home-field advantage, their home-field advantage has not been as strong in recent years as other teams'.
Rams Injury Concerns: The Rams are the unhealthier team entering this matchup.
This is going to be a very close game, but I give a slight edge to the Vikings due to their superior defense and turnover differential. The health of Rob Havenstein will be a major factor to watch. If he's unable to play or is significantly limited, the Vikings' chances increase even more.
Gemini 2.0 Advanced Predictions 2025 NFL Wild Card (Recap)
Saturday:
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans: Chargers 27, Texans 24
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: Ravens 24, Steelers 13
Sunday:
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills: Bills 34, Broncos 20
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles: Eagles 31, Packers 24
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Buccaneers 34, Commanders 31
Monday:
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams: Vikings 27, Rams 24