Claude 3.5 Sonnet: 2025 NFL Wild Card Predictions
Claude synthesizes the data and makes its predictions for the 2025 NFL Wild Card round of the playoffs
I’ve been doing a series where I feed AIs information to determine if they end up more accurate than most people in predicting each round of the 2025 NFL Playoffs.
A lot of NFL predictions are just luck… many matchups are pretty even and sometimes a team has an “off game” or critical injury early on or deals with a bad call or series of unexpected turnovers - and boom upset.
Anyways, I fed Claude 3.5 Sonnet (Anthropic’s best model) the same data I gave o1-Pro and Gemini 2.0: team stats, player stats, advanced stats/metrics, injury reports, complete schedules & scores for each team (2024-2025 reg season), the full set of rules, etc. - nothing was left out.
It then had to use this data to make predictions for the 2025 Wild Card Round. Its predictions are below.
2025 Wild Card Matchups & Predictions (Claude 3.5 Sonnet Edition)
Vikings (5) @ Rams (4)
Predicted Score: Rams 27, Vikings 24
Odds: Rams -3
Confidence Level: 65%
Rationale:
Rams have a strong run game led by Williams (1,299 yards).
QB Matthew Stafford (3,762 yards, 20 TDs) brings significant playoff experience compared to Sam Darnold.
Vikings' Justin Jefferson (1,533 yards) will challenge the Rams' secondary, but the unit has shown improvement.
Home field advantage is expected to be a key factor.
Packers (7) @ Eagles (2)
Predicted Score: Eagles 31, Packers 23
Odds: Eagles -6
Confidence Level: 75%
Rationale:
Eagles dominate the run game, led by Saquon Barkley (2,005 yards).
Packers QB Jordan Love (3,389 yards, 25 TDs) faces a difficult road environment.
Eagles' defense excels at creating pressure, with 41 sacks on the season.
Packers have struggled against power-running teams, a hallmark of the Eagles' offense.
Commanders (6) @ Buccaneers (3)
Predicted Score: Buccaneers 34, Commanders 27
Odds: Buccaneers -4.5
Confidence Level: 70%
Rationale:
Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield is having a career year (4,500 yards, 41 TDs).
Tampa Bay boasts a balanced attack with RB Irving contributing 1,122 rushing yards.
Commanders' defense has shown vulnerability throughout the season.
Buccaneers' playoff experience gives them a critical edge.
Chargers (5) @ Texans (4)
Predicted Score: Texans 28, Chargers 24
Odds: Texans -2
Confidence Level: 60%
Rationale:
Texans QB C.J. Stroud (3,727 yards) has demonstrated remarkable poise for a rookie.
Houston features a balanced offensive attack, with Joe Mixon contributing 1,016 rushing yards.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert (3,870 yards) can lead a high-scoring game, but the Texans' home field provides a slight edge.
Broncos (7) @ Bills (2)
Predicted Score: Bills 27, Broncos 20
Odds: Bills -5.5
Confidence Level: 70%
Rationale:
Bills' home field advantage in January is significant.
Buffalo's defense excels at generating turnovers.
Broncos have struggled in road games this season.
Bills' playoff experience is expected to be a decisive factor.
Steelers (6) @ Ravens (3)
Predicted Score: Ravens 24, Steelers 16
Odds: Ravens -9.5
Confidence Level: 85%
Rationale:
Ravens dominated the AFC North and bring a strong run game advantage.
Baltimore's elite defense is particularly formidable at home.
Steelers' offense has been limited in production throughout the season.
Familiarity as division rivals, but the Ravens have superior talent across the board.
Summary of Predictions
Highest Confidence Pick: Ravens over Steelers (85%)
Closest Predicted Game: Vikings vs. Rams (65% confidence)
Key Factors:
Home Field Advantage: Most matchups highlight the significance of playing at home, especially in January conditions.
Playoff Experience: Teams with seasoned players and coaches have a distinct edge.
Turnover Differential: Defensive pressure and creating turnovers play a crucial role.
Weather Conditions: January football often amplifies the importance of physicality and run-heavy strategies.