o1-Pro (ChatGPT): 2025 NFL Wild Card Predictions
o1-pro synthesizes the data and makes predictions for the 2025 NFL Wild Card games
I wanted to determine how well o1-pro (ChatGPT’s most advanced publicly-available model – specializing in high-level reasoning) would do predicting the NFL Playoffs.
I fed it every single piece of data associated with: (1) teams (entire schedule, each game outcome, coaching, etc.); (2) player stats (all players on offense/defense); (3) injuries. It has access to everything (e.g. betting odds, times, locations, advanced metrics, etc.).
Its goal was to analyze regular season data and determine who wins each of the 2025 Wild Card games – while providing its estimated odds, confidence level, and reasoning.
We should not expect it to necessarily get things perfect (there is still a lot of luck in the NFL playoffs… injuries early in the game, bad calls, “off games,” etc. – this is a 1-and-done “do-or-die” set up).
In addition to predicting the Wild Card games for 2025, I had it predict the entire 2025 NFL Playoffs Round-by-Round & Super Bowl Matchup/Winner (pre-playoffs).
Methodology (Macro-Level Overview)
I guided its methodology a bit by suggesting things to key in on and consider: rule changes, recent history (which variables mattered most in modern playoffs), advanced logic, trends (how teams trended near end of season), matchups against good teams throughout the year), injuries, coaching, etc. - but I didn’t impose my own ideas too much.
Historical Performance and Trends: Reviewed each team’s season trajectory, including recent form (how they fared in the last few weeks) and any head-to-head or notable matchup histories.
Injury Impact Analysis: Factored in key injuries (or players returning from injury) to estimate changes in unit effectiveness, particularly on the offensive line, defensive front, and skill positions.
Advanced Metrics: Considered DVOA (offense, defense, special teams) to capture the overall efficiency of each team. Looked at how strong or weak each side of the ball is, especially in situational contexts (e.g., red zone, third down).
Matchup-Specific Edges: Applied a matchup lens—such as pass rush vs. pass protection, run defense vs. run offense, or a secondary’s strength against a particular receiving corps—to gauge where one team’s strengths align with the other’s weaknesses.
Home-Field/Weather Factors: Accounted for home-field advantages (especially in tougher outdoor venues) and any relevant weather or altitude considerations that historically tilt the outcome.
Turnover Margin & Big-Play Potential: Checked each team’s propensity for turnovers or explosive plays on both sides of the ball. A team prone to giveaways, especially against a strong opportunistic defense, gets downgraded.
Confidence & Odds: Blended qualitative factors (coaching, postseason experience) with the above data to arrive at a rough percentage “chance to win” and a final predicted score. The “confidence level” reflects how stable those factors appear (fewer unknowns or injury concerns yields higher confidence).
2025 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round: o1-Pro Predictions
Included below are predictions for the 2025 Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs by o1-pro (ChatGPT’s most advanced publicly-available model).
1. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) @ Houston Texans (10-7)
Predicted Score: Chargers 23, Texans 20
Odds: Chargers 55% | Texans 45%
Confidence: 6.5/10
Breakdown:
Quarterbacks:
Justin Herbert (LAC) posted 3,870 yards, 23 TD, a mere 3 INT, with a 65.9% completion rate. His average of 227.6 YPG and only 3 picks highlight how safe but effective he’s been.
C.J. Stroud (HOU) threw for 3,727 yards, 20 TD, 12 INT, plus Joe Mixon’s 1,016 rushing yards give the Texans a balanced attack.
Advanced Insight:
Herbert under pressure: He’s only been sacked 41 times for 244 yards lost. Houston’s pass rush includes Will Anderson Jr. (11 sacks), but the Chargers’ O-line ranks well in pass block (via metrics you shared).
Texans run game: Mixon’s 4.1 YPC (1,016 yds) plus Dameon Pierce’s high-efficiency bursts (7.3 YPC on limited touches) can keep L.A. honest.
Key Factors:
Chargers’ pass rush (Joey Bosa: 13 sacks, Tuli Tuipulotu: 8.5 sacks) might force Stroud into mistakes.
Texans’ pass defense is respectable (Derek Stingley Jr. 5 INT), but Justin Herbert’s low interception rate is big in a tight game.
Conclusion: A back-and-forth contest, but the Chargers’ slightly more polished passing game + pass rush edge them out by a field goal.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) @ Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
Predicted Score: Ravens 24, Steelers 17
Odds: Ravens 60% | Steelers 40%
Confidence: 7.5/10
Breakdown:
Quarterbacks:
Lamar Jackson (BAL): 4,172 pass yards, 41 TD vs. 4 INT (!) plus 915 rush yards. That’s MVP-level total offense. (Read: Lamar Jackson 2024 MVP: Objectively the Best Player).
Russell Wilson (PIT): 2,482 pass yards, 16 TD in 11 games. Efficiency has been decent, though not as prolific as Lamar.
Advanced Insight:
Ravens RPO threat: Henry’s 1,921 rushing yards means Baltimore leads the league in rush offense. Lamar’s own 8.8 YPA passing pushes safeties to pick their poison.
Steelers on offense: Najee Harris’s 1,043 yards (4.0 YPC) helps keep them balanced, but they’ll need explosive plays from WR George Pickens (900 yds, 15.3 YPC).
Key Factors:
Baltimore ranks high in pass coverage: 41 sacks across T.J. Watt & Co. is a Steelers stat, but the Ravens have Kyle Hamilton, Roquan Smith, and a big turnover advantage (Flowers on offense is out, but they still have Mark Andrews).
Pittsburgh’s D can make it tough, but Baltimore’s rushing + Lamar’s low turnover rate is a mismatch.
Conclusion: The Ravens exploit Pittsburgh’s LB coverage with Mark Andrews, and the Jackson/Henry combo bleeds the clock. Steelers keep it within a TD, but Baltimore’s at home with more dynamic weapons.
3. Denver Broncos (10-7) @ Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Predicted Score: Bills 28, Broncos 17
Odds: Bills 70% | Broncos 30%
Confidence: 8/10
Breakdown:
Quarterbacks:
Josh Allen (BUF): 3,731 pass yards, 28 pass TD, plus 12 rushing TD (the data suggests ~12 total ground scores for him).
Bo Nix (DEN): 3,775 yards, 29 TD, 12 INT. Good season, but less proven in big playoff moments.
Advanced Insight:
Broncos WR Courtland Sutton hits 1,081 yards (8 TD), but Buffalo’s secondary (Damar Hamlin, Taylor Rapp, plus some corners) is top-tier.
Bills pass rush: Greg Rousseau (8 sacks), DaQuan Jones (2.5 sacks) can pressure Nix, who’s been sacked 24 times.
Key Factors:
Buffalo’s home-field advantage and an offense that can exploit Denver’s coverage.
Denver’s run game (Javonte Williams 513 yds, 4 TD) hasn’t been explosive; the Bills allow a middling YPC but have also forced fumbles.
Conclusion: If the Broncos can’t slow down Allen’s dual-threat or create 2–3 turnovers, Buffalo wins by double digits.
4. Green Bay Packers (11-6) @ Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Predicted Score: Eagles 27, Packers 20
Odds: Eagles 65% | Packers 35%
Confidence: 7.5/10
Breakdown:
Quarterbacks:
Jalen Hurts (PHI): 2,903 pass yds, 18 pass TD, 5 INT, plus strong rushing.
Jordan Love (GB): 3,389 yds, 25 TD, 11 INT. Good downfield success, but losing WR Christian Watson (ACL) is a blow.
Advanced Insight:
Philly run game: Saquon Barkley’s monstrous 2,005 yards at 5.8 YPC plus 13 TD. This sets up potent play-action for Hurts to A.J. Brown (1,079 yds, 7 TD).
GB offense: They rely on Josh Jacobs’s 1,329 yds (15 total TD) to set up Love’s vertical shots to Jayden Reed (857 yds) and Tucker Kraft.
Key Factors:
Philly’s pass rush (Jordan Davis, Nolan Smith Jr., Josh Sweat 8 sacks) can disrupt Love.
Packers’ pass D has standouts like Xavier McKinney (8 INT), but Philly’s multi-faceted offense is tough at home.
Conclusion: Green Bay likely feeds Jacobs heavily, but the Eagles’ top-tier rushing + Hurts’ big-play passing wins by a TD.
5. Washington Commanders (12-5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
Predicted Score: Commanders 23, Buccaneers 21
Odds: Washington 52% | Tampa Bay 48%
Confidence: 5.5/10
Breakdown:
Quarterbacks:
Jayden Daniels (WAS): 3,568 pass yds, 25 pass TD, 9 INT; plus 891 rushing yards (6 TD).
Baker Mayfield (TB): 4,500 pass yds, 41 TD, 16 INT – high volume, big downfield threat.
Advanced Insight:
Commanders Offense: Terry McLaurin (1,096 yds, 13 TD) = huge chunk yardage. Daniels’ 6.0 YPC on the ground is a factor in short-yardage.
Bucs’ skill guys: RB Bucky Irving (1,122 yds, 8 TD), WR Mike Evans (1,004 yds, 11 TD). TE Cade Otton questionable but an important chain-mover.
Key Factors:
Washington’s pass rush featuring Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen, Tavius Robinson can pressure Baker, who’s thrown 16 INT.
Tampa Bay’s secondary is decent (Zyon McCollum, 2 INT), but Jayden Daniels’ mobility can stress them.
Conclusion: A near toss-up. Tampa can score quickly but Washington’s QB run dimension extends drives. The Commanders squeak by.
6. Minnesota Vikings (14-3) @ Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
Predicted Score: Vikings 27, Rams 24
Odds: Vikings 55% | Rams 45%
Confidence: 6.5/10
Breakdown:
Quarterbacks:
Sam Darnold (MIN): 4,319 yds, 35 TD, 12 INT, strong 7.9 YPA.
Matthew Stafford (LAR): 3,762 yds, 20 TD, 8 INT.
Advanced Insight:
Vikings skill set: WR Justin Jefferson (1,533 yds, 10 TD) is unstoppable. RB Aaron Jones with 1,138 yds.
Rams run game: Kyren Williams (1,299 yds, 14 TD, 4.1 YPC). Stafford’s advanced in DVOA pass but sacked 28 times.
Key Factors:
Minnesota’s pass coverage has Byron Murphy Jr. (6 INT), while the Rams rely on Jared Verse (8 sacks) for pass rush.
The Vikings have more big-play threats overall.
Conclusion: A close affair, but Darnold-Jefferson’s synergy + Vikings’ explosive pass plays overshadow the Rams’ run-first approach. Vikings by a field goal.
O1-Pro: NFL Wild Card 2025 Predictions (Recap)
Chargers over Texans (23-20) – Confidence 6.5/10
Ravens over Steelers (24-17) – Confidence 7.5/10
Bills over Broncos (28-17) – Confidence 8/10
Eagles over Packers (27-20) – Confidence 7.5/10
Commanders over Bucs (23-21) – Confidence 5.5/10
Vikings over Rams (27-24) – Confidence 6.5/10
Each game has its share of intrigue. None of the latest injury updates drastically overturn these predictions. Expect at least one upset possibility (maybe the Rams or Bucs) if a few breaks fall their way, but on paper, the above favorites have the edge.