o3-mini-high + Deep Research: Super Bowl LIX Prediction (2025): Eagles vs. Chiefs
o3-mini-high augmented with "Deep Research" predicts Super Bowl LIX
Previously I had 4 AI models make Super Bowl LIX (2025) predictions for Eagles vs. Chiefs (DeepSeek, Gemini-1206, Claude Sonnet, o1-pro) using advanced data I’d manually compiled and fed them to synthesize within their GPU brains — then make the most accurate prediction possible.
3 of these AIs made pre-playoff predictions (attempting to accurately predict outcomes of the entire playoffs before starting)… and they did a separate series of round-by-round predictions with updated data after each round.
A new model “o3-mini-high” was released by OpenAI this past week… and I fed it my mega-dataset of manually compiled info. to make its prediction… OpenAI added a tool called “Deep Research” which lets o3-mini scan the internet to gather data with the internet of improving the quality/accuracy of its output.
Google’s Gemini 1.5 has had the “Deep Research” feature for a while now and it’s very good. I like the output for o3-mini-high with DR more than that for Gemini 1.5, but I think Gemini scans more info… the report is just less extensive and you need to ask more follow up questions after the scan for details.
READ: Gemini 1.5 Deep Research Super Bowl LIX Prediction (2025): Eagles vs. Chiefs
I gave o3-mini-high a very solid prompt, but for some reason it got really hung up focusing on the 2023 season… then it kind of skipped to the 2025 playoffs and analyzed some stats from the 2024 season, but didn’t do a very good job considering the current 2024-2025 season.
I forced it to do a second round of “Deep Research” (criticizing its initial research) with a stronger focus on the 2024 regular season… but the predictions were identical anyway… maybe some of its “thinking” or “analysis” was hidden? IDK.
Interestingly o3-mini-high settled on the same winner as o3-mini-high’s Super Bowl LIX prediction using my dataset… but with a slightly different scoreline.
Note: Even after forcing it to double-check things, I had to make corrections. It failed to include Xavier Worthy and was thinking Kadarius Toney was still on the team. I had to keep correcting o3-mini-high… was annoying but it eventually figured more things out. (Cannot be sure there are zero errors here.)
Current Season Performance & Advanced Metrics (2024-2025)
Offensive Efficiency
Philadelphia Eagles:
Averaged 27.2 points per game with top-tier rushing (top 3 in EPA per rush) and efficient play-action passing (8th in pass EPA).
Extremely low turnover rate (~6.6%) helps sustain drives.
References:
Kansas City Chiefs:
Averaged about 22.6 points per game, ranking 12th in EPA per play overall.
Despite Mahomes’ brilliance, the unit has struggled—especially in deep passing efficiency.
Turnover rate at ~8.3% remains a minor issue relative to the Eagles’ cleaner play.
Reference: Same sources as above.
Defensive Efficiency
Eagles: Allowed only 17.8 PPG (2nd best) with a top-ranked adjusted defensive EPA/play.
Chiefs: Allowed 19.2 PPG (4th overall) with decent run defense but vulnerability in pass defense (20th by adjusted NEP).
References:
Situational Metrics & Red Zone Efficiency
Eagles: Excel in red-zone scoring (over 50% TD conversion) and boast a strong third-down defense.
Chiefs: Have struggled in the red zone (conversion around 53–56%) and are even on turnovers.
References:
Roster Evolution & Coaching Adjustments
Philadelphia Eagles:
Upgrades:
Adding star running back Saquon Barkley, who posted nearly record-breaking yardage.
Re-signing veteran TE Zach Ertz enhances red-zone performance.
Coaching:
Head Coach Nick Sirianni, along with new OC Kellen Moore, has implemented a run-heavy and efficient play-action scheme.
References:
Kansas City Chiefs:
Wide Receiver Situation:
Xavier Worthy is now emerging as a reliable short-to-intermediate target (though his deep efficiency has been a concern). Recent viral practice footage shows a promising connection between Mahomes and Worthy, which could open up the vertical dimension.
Reference: Arrowhead Pride & The Sun on Xavier Worthy
JuJu Smith-Schuster returned on a one-year deal, though he’s been hampered by injury. His role is expected to be limited, but he provides depth and veteran savvy.
DeAndre Hopkins: Recently acquired via trade from the Titans, adds a veteran presence to help offset receiver inconsistencies.
Skyy Moore: His status has been up and down with injuries, but he remains a potential spark if healthy.
The updated Chiefs depth chart (as shown on Ourlads) now ranks Xavier Worthy as the top receiver, followed by Hollywood Brown and then veteran JuJu, with Hopkins serving as a situational option.
Coaching Adjustments:
Head Coach Andy Reid has shifted to more timing-route schemes to compensate for a lack of deep-threat efficiency, a change intended to protect Mahomes and create yards after catch.
Offensive coordinator Matt Nagy has reworked the passing game to emphasize quick, high-percentage routes.
References:
Playoff Performance Analysis
Philadelphia Eagles:
Dominant Run: Overwhelming victories, including a historic NFC Championship with 55 points, largely powered by efficient offense and a high turnover margin (10 takeaways, 0 giveaways).
Defense: The Eagles forced a +10 turnover margin in the playoffs, setting them up for sustained success.
Reference: NBC Sports Philadelphia
Kansas City Chiefs:
Tough Road: Won a narrow 27-17 Divisional win and edged a 32-29 thriller against the Bills.
Clutch Performances: Patrick Mahomes and a timely pass rush (with players like George Karlaftis and Trent McDuffie stepping up) drove these wins.
Receiver Note: Although receiver production was a concern, recent adjustments (including the Hopkins trade) are intended to shore up these weaknesses.
Reference: The Ringer and Arrowhead Pride
Betting Market & Prop Bet Analysis
Overall Market:
Spread & Moneyline:
Chiefs are slight favorites (around -1.5 points, approx. -120 ML), though sharp money leans toward the Eagles.
Total Points: Set at roughly 48.5–49 points with public bettors favoring the Over, while sharp action suggests potential value on the Under.
Reference: Vegas Insider
Prop Bets:
Super Bowl MVP:
Top candidates remain Mahomes (+120) and Hurts (+150).
Dark Horse: Travis Kelce at +1500, if he can exploit red-zone mismatches.
Player Stat Props:
Mahomes’ passing line is around 285.5 yards; Hurts’ around 225.5 yards.
Look for value in Hurts’ rushing props and Hopkins’ receiving opportunities.
Reference: FanDuel Research
o3-Mini-High + Deep Research: Prediction & Betting Alpha
Game Prediction:
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
Final Score: Eagles 27, Chiefs 23
The Eagles’ superior overall efficiency, red-zone proficiency, and defensive prowess are expected to overcome the Chiefs’ situational strengths.
Reference: Sharp Football Analysis and PFF Playoff Rankings
Betting Alpha:
Spread/Moneyline: Value in backing the Eagles as slight underdogs (e.g., Eagles +1.5/+2 or outright at around +105 ML).
Total: Consider the Under 49, given both teams’ defensive traits.
Props: Look for value in Hurts’ rushing props and a long-shot MVP bet on Kelce.
Reference: Vegas Insider
Final Call
Eagles: Superior on both offense and defense, especially in the red zone and turnover margin.
Chiefs: Still led by Mahomes and seasoned coach Andy Reid, but receiver issues have been a concern—recent moves (Hopkins trade, development of Worthy) aim to address these.
Final Call: With all factors considered, we predict a narrow win for the Eagles 27-23, and from a betting perspective, value lies with the Eagles (spread/moneyline) and possibly the Under on total points.