Gemini 1.5 "Deep Research": Super Bowl LIX (2025) Prediction (Eagles vs. Chiefs)
Gemini 1.5 scrapes the internet, gathers data it wants, and makes a prediction...
I already had 4 AI models make Super Bowl LIX (2025) predictions for Eagles vs. Chiefs using extensive/advanced data I’d manually compiled and fed them to synthesize and make the best possible prediction.
Before the playoffs, I had 3 AIs (Gemini-Exp-1206, Claude Sonnet, o1-pro) make full playoff predictions (how the entire thing would play out before starting)… and I had these same 3 AIs make weekly round-by-round predictions (with data updates after each round to predict the next round).
Because a new model “o3-mini” was released this week, I had the highest-performing version “o3-mini-high” make a Super Bowl LIX prediction using the same dataset that I’d manually compiled.
Then I compared predictions from Gemini 1.5 and o3-mini-high with “Deep Research” added on.
READ: o3-mini-high + Deep Research: Super Bowl LIX 2025 Prediction
Deep Research is a feature that Gemini has had for a while and OpenAI just added it… both are similar, wouldn’t necessarily say one is significantly better than the other.
I essentially instructed these AIs to find all of the highest-quality data on the internet to make a Super Bowl LIX prediction between Eagles and Chiefs, and determine whether there is any betting alpha. They still needed some guidance, but here is the output for Gemini 1.5 “Deep Research” after a bit of guidance.
I still am not sure if Gemini 1.5 necessarily focused on the highest quality data (signal vs. noise) while predicting Super Bowl LIX, but I wanted to give it some freedom. I also did NOT take the time to verify its accuracy here (could’ve made mistakes with key stats).
I think it created a really solid analysis/report and prediction.
Gemini 1.5 Deep Research: Super Bowl LIX (2025) — Eagles vs. Chiefs (Analysis)
“The Super Bowl is the pinnacle of the NFL season, and Super Bowl LIX promises a thrilling clash between two titans: the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles.” - Gemini 1.5
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs clinched the AFC's top seed with an impressive 15-2 record, a testament to their offensive firepower and defensive resilience. Notably, they demonstrated an exceptional ability to perform under pressure, securing 17 consecutive wins in one-score games, including their last three playoff games in the previous season and 12 wins this season.
This remarkable streak underscores their clutch performance and Mahomes' leadership in high-stakes situations. However, a closer look at their offensive and defensive efficiency metrics reveals a more nuanced picture, with some areas closer to league average than their dominant record might suggest.
Offense:
Passing: While the Chiefs ranked 14th in passing yards per game (222.4), their passing attack remained efficient, ranking eighth in adjusted pass offense. This efficiency stems from the masterful play of Patrick Mahomes, who threw for 3,928 yards and 26 touchdowns in the regular season. Mahomes' ability to improvise, extend plays, and make accurate throws under pressure is a crucial factor in the Chiefs' offensive success.
Rushing: In contrast to their passing game, the Chiefs' rushing attack was less potent, ranking 22nd in rushing yards per game (105.3). Kareem Hunt spearheaded their ground game with 728 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns.
Red Zone Efficiency: The Chiefs faced challenges in the red zone, ranking 22nd in red zone scoring percentage, converting touchdowns on only 53.95% of their trips inside the 20-yard line.
Defense:
The Chiefs' defense proved to be a formidable unit, allowing only 19.2 points per game, the fourth-best mark in the NFL. Their run defense was particularly stingy, surrendering a mere 101.8 rushing yards per game (8th in the NFL).
However, their pass defense showed some vulnerability, ranking 20th in adjusted defensive passing NEP per play.
Turnovers: A key strength of the Chiefs' defense was their ability to force turnovers and protect the ball. They finished the regular season with a +6 turnover margin. Furthermore, they achieved a remarkable feat by not committing a single turnover in the last seven games of the regular season. This impressive streak is tied for the longest in the Super Bowl era, matching the 2010 New England Patriots.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles asserted their dominance in the NFC, culminating in a 14-3 record and showcasing a formidable offense and an elite defense. Their offensive line was arguably the best in the league, providing a solid foundation for their run-heavy attack.
Offense:
Passing: The Eagles adopted a run-first offensive approach, ranking 29th in passing yards per game (187.9). Despite this, Jalen Hurts demonstrated improved efficiency as a passer, finishing the season with a 103.7 passer rating. However, it's worth noting that Hurts has struggled when pressured this year, which could be a factor if the Chiefs' pass rush can disrupt the Eagles' offensive line.
Rushing: The Eagles' ground game was a force to be reckoned with, leading the league in rushing attempts (621) and rushing yards per game (179.3). Saquon Barkley was the driving force behind their rushing dominance, accumulating an impressive 2,005 yards and 13 touchdowns. The Eagles' high rate of 11 personnel usage (3 WR sets) could further benefit their run game, as the Chiefs' run defense has been less effective against this personnel grouping.
Red Zone Efficiency: The Eagles displayed efficiency in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 58.02% of their trips.
Defense:
The Eagles' defense was nothing short of exceptional, ranking first in the league in both yards allowed per game (278.4) and points allowed per game (17.8). Their pass defense was particularly dominant, allowing a league-low 174.2 passing yards per game and leading the league in EPA per play allowed on pass plays. They were also one of the best in the league in limiting passing touchdowns, allowing only 22.
Their run defense was also solid, ranking third in adjusted defensive rushing NEP per play. Interestingly, the Eagles' defense has been more successful against man coverage compared to zone coverage, which could influence the Chiefs' offensive play calling.
Turnovers: The Eagles were adept at forcing turnovers, finishing the regular season with a +11 turnover margin. They had an impressive stretch with 34 takeaways and only 7 turnovers over a 16-game span.
Head-to-Head Matchups (All-Time)
The Chiefs and Eagles share a history of closely contested, high-scoring encounters. The Chiefs hold a slight 6-5 advantage in their all-time series.
However, the Eagles emerged victorious in their most recent clash during the 2023 regular season, defeating the Chiefs 21-17. In Super Bowl LVII (2023), the Chiefs triumphed over the Eagles 38-35 in a thrilling contest.
Note: I think historical H2H is completely irrelevant since counting meetings before Mahomes and Hurts were in the league. Their prior meetings (including SB meeting) could be analyzed though.
Roster Changes & Coaching Adjustments
Both teams have implemented significant roster moves and coaching adjustments throughout the 2024-2025 season, aiming to optimize their performance and address areas of concern.
Chiefs
Xavier Worthy: The Chiefs drafted the speedy wide receiver from the University of Texas to inject a new dimension into their offense. While he experienced some inconsistencies early on, Worthy has blossomed into a significant big-play threat, averaging 56 yards per game over his last seven regular season contests and delivering a standout performance in the AFC Championship game with 85 yards and a touchdown. His emergence as a deep threat has added a new layer to the Chiefs' offensive arsenal.
DeAndre Hopkins: The Chiefs bolstered their receiving corps by acquiring veteran wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins in a trade with the Tennessee Titans. Hopkins made crucial contributions in key regular-season wins, including a two-touchdown performance against the Buccaneers and a 90-yard game against the Raiders.
L'Jarius Sneed Trade: The Chiefs made a strategic decision to trade cornerback L'Jarius Sneed to the Titans, opting not to commit to a substantial contract extension. This move allowed them to allocate resources elsewhere while relying on the development of other cornerbacks like Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.
Offensive Line Reshuffle: The Chiefs faced challenges with their offensive line due to injuries and inconsistent play. They experimented with different combinations before settling on a solution that involved moving Joe Thuney to left tackle and Mike Caliendo to left guard. This adjustment has yielded positive results, with Mahomes experiencing improved protection in recent games.
Eagles
Britain Covey: The Eagles opened the practice window for wide receiver Britain Covey's return from injured reserve. Covey could potentially contribute as a punt returner, adding depth to their special teams unit.
Nakobe Dean Injury: The Eagles suffered a significant loss with linebacker Nakobe Dean sidelined for the season due to a knee injury. This injury forced the Eagles to adjust their linebacker rotation, with Oren Burks and Jeremiah Trotter Jr. potentially taking on larger roles.
Defensive Scheme: The Eagles' defense, under the guidance of coordinator Vic Fangio, has earned a reputation for its versatility and adaptability. Fangio is known for making in-game adjustments to counter opponents' offensive strategies, which could be a crucial factor in the Super Bowl.
Injury Reports
Chiefs
The Chiefs appear to be in relatively good health heading into the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes, who had an ankle injury earlier in the season, has fully recovered and participated fully in practice.
Eagles
The Eagles have a few players listed as questionable for the Super Bowl, including Britain Covey (neck), Kenneth Gainwell (concussion/knee), Brandon Graham (elbow), and C.J. Uzomah (abdomen).
Landon Dickerson (knee) and Cam Jurgens (back) are also dealing with injuries. These injuries, particularly those affecting the offensive line, could potentially impact the Eagles' performance in the Super Bowl.
Betting Markets and Odds
The Chiefs enter Super Bowl LIX as slight favorites, with odds ranging from -124 to -125. The Eagles are considered slight underdogs, with odds around +105.
The point spread favors the Chiefs by -1.5 points. The over/under for total points is set at 48.5.
Super Bowl LIX Prediction (Gemini 1.5 DR)
Predicted Score: Chiefs 27, Eagles 24
Rationale:
Mahomes' Magic: Patrick Mahomes has consistently demonstrated his exceptional ability to perform in high-pressure situations, leading the Chiefs to victory in numerous close games. His improvisational skills, clutch throws, and experience in leading comebacks give the Chiefs a significant edge in this Super Bowl matchup.
Chiefs' Defensive Improvement: The Chiefs' defense has shown steady improvement throughout the season, particularly against the run. Their ability to contain Saquon Barkley, the engine of the Eagles' offense, will be crucial in limiting Philadelphia's offensive effectiveness. Furthermore, the Chiefs' impressive streak of seven games without a turnover in the regular season highlights their improved ball security, which could be a decisive factor in a close game.
Eagles' Offensive Line Concerns: While the Eagles possess an elite offensive line, they have faced injury issues and inconsistencies throughout the season. If the Chiefs' pass rush can exploit these vulnerabilities and generate consistent pressure on Jalen Hurts, it could disrupt the Eagles' offensive rhythm and potentially force turnovers.
Turnover Battle: Both teams have excelled at forcing turnovers throughout the season. The team that wins the turnover battle will likely gain a significant advantage in this closely contested matchup. However, Mahomes' tendency to throw interceptions in the third quarter of Super Bowl games is a potential concern for the Chiefs.
Matchup History: The Chiefs have historically performed well against the 49ers, who were the Super Bowl runner-up last year. This suggests that the Chiefs are capable of competing against top-tier teams and adapting to different offensive and defensive schemes.
Coverage Matchups: Jalen Hurts has shown vulnerability against certain types of coverage this year, particularly Cover-3 zone and 2-high zone. The Chiefs could potentially exploit these weaknesses by employing similar coverage schemes to disrupt Hurts' rhythm and limit his passing effectiveness.
Confidence Level: Moderate
Betting Alpha:
Over/Under: The over/under of 48.5 points appears to be slightly undervalued, considering the offensive potential of both teams and their history of high-scoring games. Betting the over could offer good value.
Point Spread: The Chiefs are favored by -1.5 points, but the Eagles are more than capable of covering the spread. This is a tightly contested matchup, and the spread could go either way.
Favorite vs. Underdog: While the Chiefs are the favorites, the Eagles present good value as underdogs. Their strong defense and potent rushing attack could potentially lead to an upset.
Value Bets and Player Props
In addition to the main betting markets, there are several player props that offer potential value based on our analysis:
Super Bowl MVP: Patrick Mahomes (+105) is the favorite, and his odds offer a reasonable return if the Chiefs win. However, Saquon Barkley (+240) presents a more enticing option with a higher potential payout. If the Eagles win, Barkley's dominant rushing performance will likely be a key factor, making him a strong contender for MVP.
First Touchdown Scorer: Saquon Barkley (+420) is the favorite to score the first touchdown, followed by Jalen Hurts (+600) and Travis Kelce (+800). Barkley has consistently found the end zone throughout the season, and Hurts is a threat to score with his legs, especially in goal-line situations. However, considering the Chiefs' strong run defense and their vulnerability to tight ends, Travis Kelce (+800) could be a valuable longshot bet.
Jalen Hurts Rushing Yards: Over 48.5 yards (-110) is a solid bet. Hurts is a dynamic runner, and the Chiefs' defense may struggle to contain him, especially if they focus on stopping Barkley.
Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards: Over 52.5 yards (-110) is worth considering. The Chiefs have struggled to defend tight ends this season, and Goedert has been a key target for Hurts in the playoffs.
Isiah Pacheco Receptions: Over 1.5 receptions (+188) offers good value. With the Eagles likely focusing on stopping the Chiefs' run game, Pacheco could be more involved as a receiver out of the backfield.
DeAndre Hopkins Receptions: Over 1.5 receptions (+126) is another prop bet to consider. Hopkins has been a reliable target for Mahomes, and he could see increased opportunities if the Eagles' defense focuses on Travis Kelce.
Chiefs Win Super Bowl LIX (Mahomes X-Factor)
Super Bowl LIX is poised to be a captivating contest between two exceptional teams. The Chiefs, led by the dynamic Patrick Mahomes, boast a potent offense and an improving defense.
The Eagles, with their dominant rushing attack and elite defense, present a formidable challenge. While the Chiefs are slight favorites, the Eagles are more than capable of securing an upset.
The game could hinge on a few key plays, and the team that executes better in those critical moments will ultimately claim victory.
Our prediction favors a narrow Chiefs victory, 27-24, driven by Mahomes' ability to make game-changing plays and the Chiefs' defensive improvement. However, the Eagles' strong defense and potent run game make them a legitimate threat. Ultimately, Super Bowl LIX is a true toss-up, and the outcome could go either way.
For those seeking betting opportunities, the over/under and the Eagles as underdogs offer potential value. In the player prop markets, Saquon Barkley and Dallas Goedert present enticing options with potentially high payouts.