4 AI Super Bowl LIX Predictions - Eagles vs. Chiefs (2025): Gemini-1206, Claude Sonnet, DeepSeek-R1, o1-pro

Is it even possible to bet against "Mahomeboy"?

Throughout the 2025 NFL Playoffs I’ve had 3 AIs (Gemini, Claude, o1-pro) make predictions.

There were 2 sets of predictions: (A) pre-playoffs (entire playoffs before the playoffs started) and (B) round-by-round (predictions before each round).

How’d the AIs fare last week (Conf. Championships)?

Gemini picked the Eagles and Chiefs, Claude picked the Commanders and Chiefs, and o1-pro picked the Eagles and Chiefs… so they did well.

For round-by-round predictions this playoffs the AIs have been:

• Gemini (Exp-1206): WC: 3/6; Div: 3/4; CC: 2/2 (Total: 8/12)

• Claude: WC: 5/6; Div: 3/4; CC: 1/2 (Total: 9/12)

• o1-pro: WC: 4/6; Div: 2/4; CC: 2/2 (Total: 8/12)

Keep in mind that accurately predicting these games doesn’t indicate much of anything (it doesn’t mean that one AI is “better” or “smarter” than another).

Then why do this? Entertainment. Humans can do just as good or better than AIs, especially for NFL playoffs, because there is a lot of luck involved in the outcomes of American football games.

You could have a dog, monkey, or some random person who doesn’t watch football pick the outcomes and results might be similar or better than the AIs.

Why? The competition is already elite and mostly even. Any-given-Sunday applies. NFL playoffs are unpredictable: penalties (or missed penalties), key drops, missed throws, fumbles, random injuries, mental lapses, coaching errors, game-plan mismatches, etc.) Any tiny thing can alter the trajectory.

Just because someone predicted correctly doesn’t mean they are a genius.

“It’s better to be lucky than good” - Lefty Gomez (New York Yankees)

If a person had a top 5 prediction record over a long span (i.e. top 5 in prediction accuracy for NFL regular season over the past 10 years, every year), this person is more likely to have some sort of genius.

Over a larger sample size (i.e. 1000 games), advanced AIs should edge out most humans in prediction accuracy as a result of advanced analytics and/or modeling things more optimally… but for any given playoff run? You might be doing better in your predictions.

Admittedly I’m doing slightly worse than all 3 AIs this year… I’m 7/12, but you might be doing better (e.g. 10/12, 11/12, 12/12).

ADDED: o3-Mini-High Predicts Super Bowl LIX (2025)

LAST WEEK: 3 AIs Predict the 2025 NFL Conference Championships (2025)

RELATED:

• o1-pro: 2025 Full Pre-Playoff Predictions

• Claude 3.5: 2025 Full Pre-Playoff Predictions

• Gemini-Exp-1206: 2025 Full Pre-Playoff Predictions

Note: Due to the hype, I added DeepSeek-R1 to the prediction mix and told it that the fate of China was on the line.

A.) Claude Sonnet: Super Bowl LIX 2025 Prediction

Chiefs (1) vs Eagles (2)

• Line: Chiefs -1.5

• Total: 50

• My Prediction: Chiefs 31, Eagles 28

• Confidence Level: 65%

Rationale

• Chiefs have won 17 straight one-possession games

• Mahomes is playing at a superhero level (288 yards, 3 total TDs vs Bills)

• Chiefs’ defense has improved (held Bills to 29 points)

• Eagles’ offense is explosive (55 points vs Commanders)

• Barkley is dominant (2,005 regular-season yards, multiple playoff TDs)

• Chiefs have the playoff experience edge

• Eagles are seeking revenge from Super Bowl LVII loss

Key Factors

• Chiefs aiming for an unprecedented three-peat

• Eagles’ dominant run game with Barkley

• Mahomes in big games (3-0 in Super Bowls)

• Eagles’ defense creating pressure and turnovers

• Chiefs’ defense under Spagnuolo vs Hurts

• Neutral site conditions in New Orleans

• Two weeks rest advantage for both teams

• Initial injury reports show both teams relatively healthy

Final Analysis

The Chiefs’ experience in big moments and Mahomes’ ability to deliver in high-pressure situations give them a slight edge in what should be another classic Super Bowl matchup.

---

B.) Gemini (Exp-1206): Super Bowl LIX 2025 Prediction

Okay, here is my prediction for Super Bowl LIX, taking into account all the information you've provided about the 2024 NFL season, including regular season stats, DVOA, Wild Card and Divisional Round results, injury reports, and even some external insights from articles and betting markets.

Sunday, February 9th, 2025

Kansas City Chiefs (17-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (17-3)

Game Context:

This is a rematch of Super Bowl LVII, which the Chiefs won 38-35. The Chiefs are looking to make history as the first team to ever three-peat as Super Bowl champions.

The Eagles are seeking their second Super Bowl title and revenge for their heartbreaking loss two years ago.

Both teams have been dominant throughout the season, with the Chiefs holding the best record in the AFC and the Eagles the best in the NFC. The game will be held at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

Key Factors & Analysis:

1. Patrick Mahomes vs. Jalen Hurts: This is a battle of two elite quarterbacks. Mahomes, the three-time Super Bowl MVP, has the experience and the clutch gene. Hurts, while less experienced in the Super Bowl, has been incredibly efficient and has led the Eagles to a 17-3 record this season (including playoffs). Hurts ranks 8th in adjusted passing DVOA (102 rating), while Mahomes ranks 11th (92 rating).

2. Chiefs' Offense vs. Eagles' Defense: The Chiefs' offense, ranked 8th in DVOA, has found a rhythm. However, they are facing the Eagles' defense, which ranks 2nd in total DVOA, 1st in passing DVOA. The Chiefs' improved receiving corps, with the additions of Hollywood Brown and DeAndre Hopkins and the continued development of Xavier Worthy, will be tested by the Eagles' secondary. However, the Chiefs offense has shown to be able to win both by the pass and the run.

3. Eagles' Offense vs. Chiefs' Defense: The Eagles' offense, ranked 5th in DVOA, is led by Saquon Barkley's dominant rushing (1st in rushing yards) and a strong offensive line (6th in pass block win rate, 5th in run block win rate). The Chiefs' defense is stout (8th in DVOA), but they are stronger against the pass (4th in DVOA) than the run (8th in DVOA). This suggests Barkley could have a significant impact.

4. Jalen Hurts' Knee & Performance Under Pressure: Hurts' knee injury is a concern, as it may limit his mobility, a crucial part of his game. Additionally, while his overall numbers are excellent, he has struggled at times under heavy pressure. The Chiefs' pass rush, led by Chris Jones, could be a major factor.

5. Travis Kelce's Playoff Form: Kelce has found another gear in the playoffs, proving he's still a dominant force. He will be a key matchup for the Eagles' linebackers and safeties. The Eagles' pass defense is much better than their run defense.

6. Turnover Battle: The Eagles have a strong turnover differential (+11), while the Chiefs are also positive (+6). Turnovers are often decisive in big games, and the Eagles' ability to force mistakes could be a difference-maker.

7. Coaching: Andy Reid vs. Nick Sirianni is a fascinating coaching matchup. Reid has the clear edge in experience, but Sirianni has shown he can make adjustments and game plan effectively. This is a rematch, and both coaches know each other well.

8. Special Teams: The Chiefs have a slight edge in special teams, ranking 12th in DVOA compared to the Eagles' 14th. Harrison Butker has been reliable, while Jake Elliott has been inconsistent from 50+ yards. However, the Eagles have a dynamic return game led by Cooper DeJean. The new kickoff rules favor good return teams.

9. Super Bowl Experience: The Chiefs have a clear advantage in Super Bowl experience, with many players on their roster having played in multiple Super Bowls. The Eagles, while having some players with experience, are relatively new to this stage as a group.

10. Intangibles: The Chiefs are chasing history, which could provide extra motivation. The Eagles are looking for revenge, which could also be a powerful motivator.

Rationale:

This is an incredibly tough game to predict, as both teams are elite and have few weaknesses. The Chiefs' Super Bowl experience and Patrick Mahomes' ability to perform under pressure give them a slight edge. However, the Eagles' dominant rushing attack, led by Saquon Barkley, and their top-ranked pass defense could pose major problems for the Chiefs.

The Chiefs' improved receiving corps and the re-emergence of Travis Kelce in the playoffs are significant factors in their favor. However, Jalen Hurts' potential limitations due to his knee injury, combined with the Eagles' struggles against the blitz in their previous Super Bowl meeting with the Chiefs, are concerns.

Ultimately, I believe the Chiefs' experience and Mahomes' ability to make clutch plays will be the difference in a close, hard-fought game. However, the Eagles' strengths in the running game and on defense make them a very dangerous opponent, and an upset is certainly possible. The betting market, with the Chiefs as slight favorites, reflects the close nature of this matchup.

Prediction:

I would not be surprised to see a game similar to Super Bowl LVII, with both teams trading blows and the outcome decided in the final minutes.

• Score Prediction: Chiefs 31, Eagles 28

• Odds of Chiefs Winning: 53% (as per the Polymarket odds)

• Confidence Level: 6/10

C.) DeepSeek-R1: Super Bowl LIX 2025 Prediction (Eagles vs. Chiefs)

Like the other AIs, DeepSeek had access to all the data (this was a massive dataset that covered nearly everything you can think of).

I told DeepSeek that the fate of China was on the line, so it should aim to make the highest accuracy prediction it can possibly make.

Key Determinants

1. Defensive Pressure

• Eagles: NFL-high 74 sacks | 74.1 Defensive FPI (#2)

• Chiefs OL: Allowed 34 sacks (18th)

• Chiefs: Chris Jones (10.5 sacks) vs. Eagles’ injured OL (Jurgens/Dickerson at 80%)

• Simulation: Eagles generate 4.3 sacks (62% pressure rate) vs. Chiefs’ 2.1 sacks

2. Barkley’s Ground Dominance

• Eagles rushing attack: 6.7 YPC in playoffs (442 yards)

• Chiefs run defense: 4.0 YPC allowed to RBs

• Impact: Barkley hits 120+ rush yards, forcing Chiefs into 15+ snaps of dime defense

3. Mahomes’ Playoff IQ vs. Eagles’ Secondary

• Mahomes playoff record: 10-3

• Target matchup: Isaiah Rodgers (Eagles' slot CB) allowing 74.3% completions

• Counter: Rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell (4 INTs, 8 PD) shadows Kelce on key downs

4. Turnover Margin

• Eagles: +11 (4th NFL)

• Chiefs: +6 (8th NFL)

• X-Factor: Chiefs’ rookie WR Worthy (4 fumbles in playoffs) vs. Eagles’ 11 forced fumbles

Game Flow Prediction

1st Half:

• Chiefs lead 10-7

  • Mahomes exploits Eagles’ backup nickel CB with quick screens to Worthy (5 rec, 41 yards)

  • Eagles struggle in red zone, settling for FGs

3rd Quarter:

• Barkley breaks a 25-yard TD run (6.7 YPC avg) → Eagles lead 14-10

• Jalen Carter forces intentional grounding on Mahomes → Chiefs settle for FG (14-13)

4th Quarter:

• Hurts leads an 8-minute drive, Barkley scores on 2-yard TD + 2-pt conversion → Eagles 22-13

• Mahomes responds with a 12-play TD drive to Kelce (2:28 left) → 2-pt conversion fails (22-19)

• Eagles drain clock, Elliott 48-yard FG (25-19)

• Mahomes marches to PHI 40-yard line, but Reddick strip-sack seals the game

Final Score: Eagles 24, Chiefs 23

Statistical Validation

Critical Adjustments

• Eagles’ X-Factor: Hurts' legs on 3rd & 4+ (67% conversion rate in playoffs)

• Chiefs’ Counter: Isolate Kelce vs. LB Baun (allowed 84.3 passer rating)

Confidence & Stakes

• Win Probability: Eagles 51% | Chiefs 49% (Margin of error: ±1.5 points)

• Why the Eagles Win:

  1. Defensive line pressure + Barkley control time-of-possession

  2. Goedert (12.5 Y/R) exploits Chiefs’ LB duo Tranquill/Bolton

• Why the Chiefs Could Steal It:

  • Mahomes’ 88.7 passer rating under pressure (#1 NFL, 2024)

Final Thought:

• With defensive depth + Barkley’s ground efficiency, Philly edges out Mahomes’ magic in a 1-score Super Bowl classic.

---

D.) o1-pro: Super Bowl LIX (2025) Prediction: Eagles vs. Chiefs

1. Big-Picture Context

a) The Chiefs’ Three-Peat Pursuit

• Historical angle: No team has ever won three consecutive Super Bowls. By merely reaching this one, Kansas City (the first back-to-back champion to return) has made NFL history.

• 15–2 record: They not only dominated in the regular season (despite lots of one-score outcomes), they also found ways to consistently win tight games (17 straight one-score wins, 9-0 in the postseason since the 2022 AFC Championship).

• Offensive identity: While no longer as breakneck as the 2018–2020 versions, the Chiefs still field a top-5 offense by most advanced measures. They ranked 6th in DVOA, overcame injuries to skill players, and got key contributions from rookie WR Xavier Worthy and newly acquired WR Hollywood Brown.

• Defensive improvement: Steve Spagnuolo’s group started somewhat shaky midseason, but they have shown top-10 defense down the stretch (adjusted Weighted DVOA near 12th overall, but top 8 last few weeks). They pressured Josh Allen into game-deciding misfires in the AFC Championship.

b) The Eagles’ Redemption Tour

• Post-LVII heartbreak: They lost to Kansas City two years ago in a 38–35 thriller, overshadowed by a late defensive holding penalty.

• 17–3 record: The Eagles posted a top-3 offense and the NFL’s best defense by multiple advanced metrics (No. 1 in Defensive DVOA). They are also the first team since 1978 to rank top 5 in offense, defense, and special teams in the same season (alongside the 2022 Bills, 2023 Ravens, 1996 Packers, etc.).

• Ground game synergy: Jalen Hurts posted a mid-tier passing yard total but was among the most efficient QBs in red-zone and short-yardage situations. Meanwhile, RB Saquon Barkley had 2,005 yards rushing, becoming the first Eagles runner ever to pass 2K.

• Playoff rampage: The Eagles outscored opponents by 105-39 these playoffs, culminating in their 55-23 thrashing of Washington. They’ve posted 683 rushing yards in three playoff games, behind an unstoppable O-line. The pass rush leads the league in sacks and forced 4 turnovers in the NFC title game.

2. Key Matchups & Advanced Analysis

a) Chiefs Offense vs. Eagles Defense

1. Mahomes vs. Philadelphia Pass Rush

   • Mahomes faced this Eagles front in Super Bowl LVII. He overcame a pass rush that included Haason Reddick, Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, and Josh Sweat. Now, the Eagles add Jalen Carter and an improved Jordan Davis on the interior.

   • Key stat: The Eagles have the league’s No. 1 adjusted sack rate. However, the Chiefs O-line is top 5 in pass-block win rate and has allowed the third-fewest sacks since Week 10. Mahomes has the league’s quickest time to throw (2.56s) in the postseason, partially mitigating a great pass rush.

2. Travis Kelce & the Eagles’ LB/S coverage

   • The Eagles’ base coverage is well-suited to stopping tight ends: they have a trifecta of rangy safeties (Reed Blankenship, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Lewis Cine) and athletic LBs (Baun, Burks, Trotter Jr. rotating).

   • But historically, Kelce is the toughest TE for any zone coverage scheme. In the last 2 postseasons, Kelce has averaged 8.4 rec and ~95 ypg.

3. Rookie WR Xavier Worthy

   • The Bills game was his breakout (6 catches, 85 yards, 1 TD). He’s a 4.21-4.25 speedster, reminiscent of how Tyreek Hill stressed secondaries. Eagles typically keep big corners on the outside, but they might adjust to get a more physical corner (Darius Slay or Quinyon Mitchell) pressed on him.

   • Big question: can the Eagles muster bracket coverage on both Kelce and keep a safety over top for Worthy’s blazing speed?

4. Chiefs Ground Attack

   • 1,790 total rushing yards in the regular season was middle of the pack, but Kareem Hunt has turned up in the postseason (260 yards, 3 total TD in 3 games).

   • The Eagles rank top 5 in run defense DVOA, with Jordan Davis & Jalen Carter forming a monstrous interior. The last time they faced a heavy run scheme (49ers in 2023), they locked it down. If the Chiefs find themselves behind schedule with negative runs, they might ditch it quickly and rely on Mahomes short passing.

b) Eagles Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

1. NFL’s #1 Rushing Offense

   • The Eagles posted 3,048 rush yards (including playoffs). Barkley alone has 2,005. Then factor in Jalen Hurts (rushing for 600+ plus 12 rushing TDs).

   • The Chiefs’ run defense is average, ranking 15th in run defense DVOA. They have had difficulty against top-tier interior lines. Chris Jones is a monster inside, but the LB corps can be stressed, especially if the Eagles read-protect or run their famed “Brotherly Shove” short-yard advantage.

2. Eagles downfield threats

   • A.J. Brown’s raw yardage dipped a bit, but he’s the highest-graded deep threat in the postseason. DeVonta Smith is an electric route-runner. Both can make contested catches.

   • The Chiefs corners (Trent McDuffie, L’Jarius Sneed, Jaylen Watson) have been aggressive, but their coverage vs. top wide receivers is 17th in success rate. The Eagles are lethal on shot plays, particularly off RPO or play action, including post/wheel combos.

3. Hurts vs. Spagnuolo

   • Steve Spagnuolo is known for elaborate blitz packages. In the 2022-24 time period, Jalen Hurts has 0.21 EPA/play vs. the blitz, top 5 in the league. Two years ago in the Super Bowl, he lit up the Chiefs with ~300+ total yards and 4 total TD.

   • Expect the Chiefs to mix disguised looks, but if they blitz too often, Hurts can punish them with quick reads to Brown or Smith or scramble for big gains.

4. Red Zone Dominance

   • The Eagles rank No. 1 in red-zone TD efficiency, the Chiefs rank 6th. But the Chiefs also have the best red-zone defense of the final four teams. This might shape the outcome more than anything else. The Eagles are unstoppable from the 2-yard line with the “tush push,” so the Chiefs must hold them outside of the 5 or create negative plays to avoid short-yard plunges.

c) Special Teams and Turnovers

• Detroit ended up finishing first in special teams DVOA. The Eagles (No. 3) and Chiefs (No. 6) are both in the top 10, quite close.

• Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker is 13-of-14 on field goals in the playoffs over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile, Eagles’ Jake Elliott is also extremely reliable.

• The turnover margin in the postseason: The Eagles are +10 (!) while the Chiefs are -1. Kansas City rarely beats itself, but the Eagles forced 4 turnovers in the NFC Championship alone. Any big takeaway could swing the game.

d) Health and Key Injuries

• Chiefs:

  • Patrick Mahomes (ankle) is near 100%.

  • Right tackle Jawaan Taylor (knee) is likely good to go.

  • Chris Jones, Travis Kelce and Bryan Cook are all cleared.

• Eagles:

  • DE Brandon Graham (triceps) is uncertain but might get activated.

  • OL Landon Dickerson (knee) is questionable but leaning probable.

  • Jalen Hurts (shoulder) not listed on final estimates.

  • Everyone else trending healthy.

3. Forecasting the Game

a) Keys to the Game

1. Chiefs must protect Mahomes from the Eagles’ fierce pass rush, keep the offense balanced, and find ways to bracket or limit Barkley’s explosive runs, forcing Jalen Hurts into 3rd-and-long.

2. Eagles must feed Barkley behind the league’s best O-line, use RPO constraints on the Chiefs’ linebackers, and generate negative plays or a turnover or two on defense to neutralize Mahomes’ late-game heroics.

b) Potential Path to a Chiefs Win

• Mahomes methodically picks apart the Eagles with quick passes to Kelce and Worthy. Chris Jones registers 1-2 sacks.

• The Chiefs hold the Eagles to field goals in the red zone, stifling or limiting Barkley’s chunk runs.

• In the fourth quarter, down 3 or tied, Mahomes engineers a game-winning drive once again.

c) Potential Path to an Eagles Win

• The unstoppable run game sets the tone early. Eagles build an early lead.

• The pass rush hurries Mahomes into a costly pick in the third quarter.

• Barkley grinds out clock-late first downs with the help of Jalen Hurts on keepers, sealing a 7-10 point margin.