Apple & Nvidia Insider Trading Alarm After Trump's April 2025 Tariffs Flip
More insider trading under Trump? Cue: "What about Pelosi and Soros?!" (MMV)
We know the market continues taking an MMA prize fight style pummeling as a result of King Trump’s MAGAnomics which continues signaling: high tariffs, international isolationism (or strained relationships), reshoring as much manufacturing/industry as possible, low taxes, running up the debt, and throwing an infantile temper tantrum because you can’t control “The Fed” (Jerome trying to prevent perma-nuking of the economy).
For now nobody knows what’s going to happen next… New ideas pop into Trump’s head each day… some days he thinks we should raise tariffs, other days he thinks we better pause tariffs, some days he thinks we should have certain exemptions to the tariffs, other days we should rescind the exemptions. (At this point get in the clown car and laugh… it’s more fun.)
China calling Trump’s bluff? Xi hurt my feelings so I’ll rescind the NVIDIA exemptions (Trump’s feelings don’t care about your facts: the fact is that this just gives Huawei more of an edge. You no longer can keep China on the hook with your NVIDIA GPU mods. This is bad.)
Anyways, certain entities with the intelligence of a rotting stump — (maybe an insult to rotting stumps?) — are never a panican. They are enlightened members of the inverse panican realm.
Inverse panicans are allegedly strong and smart. Are they actually strong and smart though? Or are they calm because they have insider information? And if they have insider information — are they trading with it?
All reasonable questions to ask. Why? Many allege there was insider trading on April 9 with SPY 0DTE & QQQ call options purchased minutes before Trump’s 90 day tariff pause was officially announced on Truth Social.
My goal is not to convince you that there was 100% insider trading… but it is to shine a light on some suspicious activity that may be best explained by insider trading.
Note: Many alleging insider trading have a clear motive to discredit and defame the Trump admin (TDS’ers); these people are vicious and attack in bad faith without reasonable evidence. On the other hand, those who dismiss the possibility of insider trading outright with zero reasonable investigation are also bad faith (protecting their cult from any perception of wrongdoing).
My aim is to objectively analyze what happened with Apple, Nvidia, and SMH ETF — give my $0.02 (could be off base), and let you arrive at your own conclusions. Feel free to double-check my information and call me out if I’m wrong anywhere (I’ll gladly make updates/adjustments.)
“Was there insider trading here? Or was it all a figment of your imagination? Find out on the next episode of Beyond Belief: Fact or Fiction — Trump 2.0 edition.” — Jonathan Frakes, probably
Various possibilities I’ve considered: (1) insider trading (direct or indirect leak); (2) algorithmic/automated trading; (3) meeting bets (Tim Cook & Jensen Huang); (4) macro bet; (5) hedges; (6) genius insight (or insider information without an actual leak); (7) YOLO speculation; etc.
Apple & Nvidia: Price Moves, Rumors, Well-Timed Trades (April 2-16, 2025)
In early April 2025 the entire market dropped in reaction to Trump’s tariff news.
This sent shockwaves through tech and had a major impact on large-cap tech stocks, including Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA).
However, the policy messaging seesawed: Liberation Day tariffs then strategic 90 day tariff pause; this tariff reprieve triggered a historic rally – the S&P 500 surged 9.5% (one of its strongest days in decades), with the Nasdaq up 12.2%.
By Friday, April 11, the administration appeared to refine its approach: technology products (smartphones, computers, chips) were exempted from Trump’s planned 145% tariff hike on Chinese imports. This gave tech companies temporary relief.
The following Monday (April 14), tech stocks – led by Apple and Nvidia – soared on the news. Apple spiked as much as 7% intraday (hitting ~$212.94) before closing up 4.5%, and Nvidia similarly jumped, helping drive a global rally.
Trump even noted he granted Apple “assistance” (tariff relief) after talks with CEO Tim Cook. But the optimism was short-lived. By April 15–16, officials clarified that these electronics tariff exemptions were only temporary, foreshadowing a new tariff strategy targeting the semiconductor industry.
Simultaneously, the U.S. imposed new export restrictions on advanced AI chips (like Nvidia’s), news that hit after market hours – Nvidia’s stock immediately dropped ~6% on the announcement. This whipsaw timeline of tariff exemptions and hints of reinstatements (or new restrictions) set the stage for potential insider trading opportunities.
April 2–8: The Tariff Shock Sell-Off
Apple (AAPL) drops from ~$246 to ~$190 — a brutal ‑23% crash.
Nvidia (NVDA) slides from ~$106 to ~$94 — down ‑11%.
Markets reel as Trump’s new tariff threats shake investor confidence.
April 9: The Reversal Begins
9:37 AM ET – Trump posts on Truth Social: “GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” Stocks stabilize but remain deeply red.
1:30 PM ET – Trump announces a 90-day pause on new tariffs.
Apple rebounds to ~$205.
Nvidia climbs to ~$101.
April 11: Bullish Apple Trade Hits the Tape
Apr 11 ~1:50 PM: Cook spotted at White House; electronics‑carve‑out rumor hits X.
2–3 PM ET – A single trading desk buys 35,000 Apr 25 $210/$220 call spreads on Apple (~$5.25M bet). For breakeven Apple must rally fast.
Note: Anyone scouring news wires on April 10 could’ve read that Jensen Huang met Trump the prior weekend — but nothing in those prices pointed to a policy move seesaw (tariffs → exemptions → rescinded exemptions).
April 13–14: Electronics Exemption Leaks & Confirmed
Weekend (Apr 13): Rumors of an electronics exemption hit social media.
Apr 14: Exemption confirmed — tech surges.
Apple spikes to $212.94 intraday, closes up +4.5% at $207.
That $5.25M call spread now marks near $14M — a ~$9M profit in one session.
Nvidia rides the wave, jumping to ~$106.
April 15: Nvidia Hit by AI Export Curbs
3:45–3:58 PM ET – A flurry of bearish trades:
Nvidia puts: ~$3-4M in short-dated premium while NVDA hovers near $101.
SMH puts: An additional ~$2M at the $240/$235 strikes (about 8x avg. daily volume).
4:26 PM ET – U.S. announces new AI-chip export restrictions.
Nvidia tanks ~6% after hours, closing around $95.
The fresh puts more than double, netting multi-million-dollar gains overnight.
The Takeaway: Suspiciously Well-Timed Trades
Two trades stole the spotlight:
A $9M windfall on Apple from a rapid tech rebound.
A multi-million-dollar win from Nvidia’s after-hours plunge, caught just minutes before news hit.
A quick 2x on SMH puts, placed in the same 9‑minute burst, underscoring that the tip was expressed at both the single‑stock and sector levels.
The precision and size of these trades have fueled intense speculation around insider knowledge, especially given their near-perfect alignment with major policy announcements.
I.) Apple (AAPL): Unusual Trading Activity (April 2025)
Just before Trump’s tariff exemption announcement, an extremely large and bullish options position was opened in Apple – strongly suggesting someone anticipated the news.
Earlier that same afternoon, reporters spotted Apple CEO Tim Cook entering the Eisenhower Executive Office Building, and X/Twitter buzzed that a smartphone tariff carve‑out might be brewing—fuel for anyone bold enough to gamble on an Apple rebound.
On Friday, April 11 (the last trading day before the smartphone tariff exclusion was made public), an anonymous trader bought roughly 35,000 Apple call spread contracts (strike $210–$220, expiring April 25) when Apple was trading around $192.
This massive position – one of the largest single-stock options trades of the day – cost an estimated $5.25 million in premiums. The bet would profit if Apple’s stock jumped in the next two weeks, ideally rising above $210. In fact, if Apple exceeded $220 by expiration, the trade could reap about $30 million in profit.
The timing was impeccable. Over that weekend, Trump’s team approved the smartphone tariff exemption, exactly the catalyst the trader seemed to be positioning for. When markets opened Monday, April 14, Apple’s stock exploded upward on the news, and those call spreads ballooned in value.
By early Monday trading, the once-$5 million position had an estimated paper value of ~$14 million, a gain of roughly +180% in days. In other words, the trader stood to gain on the order of $9 million (or more, if held longer) almost overnight. In fact, about 10,000 of the contracts were reportedly closed out Monday morning to lock in profits.
Market surveillance experts immediately took note.
Ophir Gottlieb (CEO of Capital Market Laboratories) remarked that these bullish Friday trades likely reflected speculation that tariffs on Apple/China would be reversed over the weekend. There was indeed “market chatter about a possible exemption” circulating on Friday, and this trader appears to have acted decisively on that rumor.
Unusual Whales, a popular options flow tracker, reported seeing “numerous $AAPL calls being opened” in real time on Friday, marking the first day all week that Apple’s options flow turned net positive. The top strike positions opened were $200, $210, $215, and $220 calls expiring the following week – strikes that align with the now-known call spread bet.
Options analyst Joe Kunkle (of OptionsHawk) was among those who flagged the suspicious trade immediately. “I knew it was a China exemption play,” he said, noting that it was positioning for what many insiders expected would happen.
The sheer size and prescience of this trade – coming just before Trump’s latest tariff update – raise serious red flags of possible insider knowledge.
At minimum, the trader had a very strong hunch (or tip) that a favorable policy reversal was imminent, as there was no other public news on April 11 to justify such a large, short-term bullish bet on Apple’s rebound.
II.) NVIDIA (NVDA) & SMH ETF: Unusual Trading Activity (April 2025)
Suspicious trading also surrounded Nvidia, particularly ahead of the negative announcements about chip export controls and the notion that tech tariff relief would be temporary. Unlike Apple’s single giant trade, the activity in Nvidia was noted in the options flow and broad market instruments.
Important context: Although Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang had dined with Trump at Mar‑a‑Lago on April 4, that meeting wasn’t reported until April 9–10 and gave no hint of a looming export‑licence crackdown—so traders on April 15 had no public cue to justify piling into last‑minute puts.
On Tuesday, April 15, in the final minutes of trading just before U.S. officials revealed new restrictions on Nvidia’s AI chips, there was a sudden surge of bearish positioning in Nvidia and semiconductor-related bets.
Unusual Whales observed that Nvidia’s options “net premiums [dropped] to overwhelmingly negative in the final 15 minutes” of the session, as traders piled into put options or other bearish strategies.
A near‑identical burst showed up in the sector proxy VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)—same strikes, same nine‑minute window—suggesting the Nvidia sellers were hedging (or doubling down) through the whole chip basket.
In other words, a wave of money aggressively flowed betting on NVDA’s downside right before the bad news hit. Sure enough, after the closing bell, the announcement came that Nvidia’s high-end chips would face indefinite export licensing requirements – a bombshell that sent NVDA stock down about $7 (-5–6%) after hours.
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) also fell ~4% on that news, reflecting a broad impact. Those fresh SMH puts roughly doubled within minutes, a quieter but still lucrative side‑bet that added evidence of coordinated, time‑stamped conviction.
The character of the Nvidia-related trading suggests that those in the know may have used multiple avenues to profit. In addition to the end-of-day NVDA options flow, some traders placed big bets on market indices tied to tech.
The Nvidia-specific flow – combined with bearish bets in related chip stocks or ETFs – points to possible coordination or multiple actors having advance knowledge. Unlike the Apple case (which looks like a single trader’s bold bet), the NVDA scenario saw multiple bearish orders clustering in a short time window.
This could indicate either one savvy insider executing a broad hedging strategy across several instruments, or several traders with similar tips all acting at once. In either case, the timing was uncanny and highly suggestive of foreknowledge rather than coincidence, given that no public information on April 15 predicted an after-hours semiconductor crackdown.
Timing Analysis: Trades vs. Trump’s Posts & Public Knowledge
Crucially, these unusual trades occurred shortly before Trump or the White House made the market-moving disclosures.
The massive Apple call spread was initiated on Friday afternoon (Apr 11) just ahead of Trump’s late-day or weekend announcement exempting iPhones and electronics from tariffs.
The Nvidia bearish surge hit in the last minutes of Apr 15’s session, barely an hour before Trump officials publicly confirmed the “temporary” nature of tech tariff relief and new chip export rules.
The alignment is so tight that it strongly implies the traders were anticipating the content of Trump’s Truth Social posts or policy statements to come.
To illustrate, on April 9, Trump’s Truth Social “buy” message and tariff pause led to one of the best days in stock market history – anyone who knew of the planned pause even 30 minutes prior could have reaped huge profits.
In fact, Trump’s own behavior drew scrutiny: by posting “Great time to buy” hours before the official tariff suspension, he essentially tipped off the market to positive news (the S&P began surging even before the formal announcement).
Insiders who “had advance knowledge of his plans to delay tariffs” could have bought stocks or calls right after that Truth Social post (or in the moments before it).
The pattern with Apple and Nvidia is analogous – but in these cases the trades occurred even before Trump’s public hints, suggesting an even deeper level of access.
The Apple trader appears to have acted on Friday before Trump’s Truth Social or press release about the exemptions, and the Nvidia-related trades hit just before Trump’s team signaled the policy reversal on chips.
Scale of Trades & Profit Potential
The scale and profit potential involved in these trades were enormous, which would clearly motivate anyone with insider knowledge.
The Apple call spread position risked over $5 million in capital – an unusually large short-term bet – and stood to make tens of millions if successful.
In fact, as noted, an exit on April 14’s spike could yield roughly a $9+ million profit in one day, and holding for further gains might have pushed profits toward the eight-figure ($20–30M) range.
Such a reward dwarfs typical speculative trades and suggests the trader had very high conviction. It’s the kind of trade one might only take if they were very confident a catalyst was coming (e.g. they were “certain” Trump would exempt Apple from tariffs).
On the Nvidia side, the exact profits are harder to quantify without specific trade data, but we can infer scenarios.
A trader who bought put options on NVDA in size during the final minutes on Apr 15 could have seen those puts surge in value after the stock’s 6% drop.
For example, a short-dated NVDA put that was near-the-money could easily double or triple with that overnight move.
Likewise, shorting Nvidia or semiconductor ETFs right before the news and covering after the drop would net quick gains.
Considering the total options volume in Nvidia exploded to 2.5+ million contracts around that event, even a small fraction of those positioned bearishly could represent millions in profit when the news hit.
Importantly, there was no obvious public catalyst on April 15 that would cause a rational trader to suddenly short Nvidia heavily – absent knowledge of policy change. So the profit motive points back to using non-public information: only those who knew the Commerce Department and White House were about to hammer NVDA’s China business had the certainty to place such large end-of-day bearish bets.
It’s also worth noting that multiple trades across broader indices (SPY, QQQ) gained from Trump’s posts. The flurry of call buying in SPY/QQQ just before the April 9 tariff pause is estimated to have made “millions” for those traders as the market ripped upward.
These index trades demonstrate that the strategy of leveraging inside information was not confined to a single stock – it was potentially an array of coordinated trades hitting the whole market.
That broad approach would make sense if someone in Trump’s orbit (or government) tipped a network of traders: some focused on index futures/options, others on specific high-fliers like Apple and Nvidia, ensuring they could extract maximum gain from the upcoming news.
Single Actor vs. Multiple Actors
The evidence so far suggests a mix of trading patterns, hinting at possibly multiple actors with insider knowledge, though some trades could be from the same source.
The Apple call spread was a singular, concentrated wager – likely the work of one trader or fund, given its cohesive structure (35k contracts on the same spread). Such a trade was probably executed as a block by one entity, rather than many small traders coincidentally doing the exact same spread. This points to a single actor (or group acting in concert) behind the Apple trade, essentially one “insider” making a huge bet.
The Nvidia and index option activity had a slightly different character. The end-of-day NVDA flow showed a cluster of bearish orders hitting in a short window – this could still be one entity (for instance, one hedge fund might rapidly buy puts in the last 15 minutes through various brokers).
But the fact that similar prescient trading occurred in SPY and QQQ options around the same announcements suggests more than one participant. It’s possible a group of connected traders or several funds all caught wind of the tariff developments.
If, say, an insider in Washington tipped multiple contacts, each might have used different instruments (one focusing on Apple, another on Nvidia or chip ETFs, others on the broad market). The result was a spread of unusual trades all pointing to the same knowledge. The coordination doesn’t have to be explicit between the traders if they all received the same news independently.
Another clue is the volume clustering: the Apple trade was huge but isolated (one big trade stood out), whereas the SPY options case involved several strikes and expirations (as broken down in the Unusual Whales analysis).
This could indicate multiple parties acting on similar info in their own way. Moreover, Congressional trading activity adds another dimension – for example, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene was reported to have bought large shares of Apple, Amazon, and other stocks right after the initial tariff-induced dip (and before the rebound).
While she’s a public figure, it raises the question of whether political insiders were also trading on inside knowledge of Trump’s tariff maneuvers. All told, the pattern does not point to a lone rogue trader; it implicates a broader possibility of insider information circulating, possibly among high-level contacts or a network of tippees.
Assessment: Likelihood of Insider Trading and Alternative Explanations (April 2025)
The trades line up almost uncannily with policy moves that were still private—so insider knowledge remains the frontrunner. But here’s how each possibility stacks up:
Insider information (≈ 70% for Apple, ≈ 75% for Nvidia): Both orders were placed in tight windows—hours before the weekend carve‑out (Apple) and minutes before the after‑hours export ban (Nvidia). They used short‑dated, far‑OTM options that only pay if the news lands immediately, and they produced eight‑figure paper gains almost overnight. That timing + leverage combination is the calling card of a leak.
CEO‑meeting “bets” (≈ 15% for Apple, 5% for Nvidia): Tim Cook’s Friday walk into the EEOB was public, and X was buzzing that phones might be spared—so a daring macro desk could have taken a flyer. But would a rumor justify risking $5 million on a 10‑day spread timed to the exact weekend? Probably not. For Nvidia, there was no public Jensen Huang cue on 15 Apr, so this angle almost disappears.
Macro thesis or bond‑curve read (≈ 6% Apple, 7% Nvidia): A fund might reason that Trump eventually caves to calm markets, or that chip controls are politically inevitable. Still, macro desks rarely pinpoint the hour a headline will drop, and they usually spread risk across expiries rather than one last‑minute blast.
Hedge tweaks / short covering (≈ 4% each): Managers do slap on calls to cap risk or buy puts to protect gains, but genuine hedges gravitate to at‑the‑money strikes and longer expiries. These trades added delta risk with far‑OTM, very short contracts—more like punts than protection.
Algorithmic / automated tradingbot (≈ 3% Apple, 5% Nvidia): High‑frequency systems generally react to prints rather than front‑run headlines, and they slice orders rather than sweep the ask in single blocks. Nvidia’s late cluster could include some momentum bots, but they’d be following, not leading, the burst of human‑driven flow.
Genius public‑info sleuthing (“mosaic theory”) (≈ 2% Apple, 3% Nvidia): Yes, a top‑tier research shop might piece together tariff drafts, logistics data, or Hill gossip. Yet risking eight‑figure premium on a weekend Apple pop or a 4:26 PM Nvidia dive still requires near‑certainty—something that usually comes from the source, not from clever web‑scraping.
Pure YOLO speculation (<2% total): Retail degenerates do gamble on OTM weeklies—but not with $5 million in premium, and not in perfect sync with closed‑door policy pivots.
Why the insider trading speculation sticks: No Fed decision, earnings print, or scheduled data hit those windows; the only fresh information was locked inside the White House and Commerce. Until a mundane trigger emerges that explains the minute‑perfect timing, insider knowledge—whether a direct leak or a tightly held whisper network—remains the simplest and most coherent story.
Joint odds (Apple + Nvidia)
Both trades insider‑driven: ~50–60%. Quick math: if you treat the events as roughly independent, 0.70 × 0.75 ≈ 0.53, i.e., 53%. Because the same leak network could easily feed both trades, positive correlation nudges that closer to the high‑50s.
At least one trade insider‑driven: ~90–95%. Using the same independence baseline, the probability that neither was insider activity is (1 – 0.70) × (1 – 0.75) = 0.30 × 0.25 = 0.075, i.e., 7.5%. Subtracting from 100 % gives roughly 92% odds that one or both trades relied on non‑public information.
Regulatory & Market Implications
The pattern of trades around Trump’s tariff posts has not gone unnoticed by regulators and lawmakers. The extraordinarily well-timed Apple trade and the broader flurry of options activity have likely drawn the attention of the SEC and FINRA’s market surveillance units.
A group of U.S. Senators formally urged the SEC to investigate whether anyone “with prior knowledge of the tariff pause… made stock trades ahead of the President’s announcement,” enriching insiders at the expense of the public.
They highlighted the Truth Social “buy” post and the ensuing rally, calling it “unconscionable” if insiders profited from the volatility. This suggests a high likelihood of an inquiry into the April 2025 trading activity.
If investigators trace these Apple or Nvidia trades to specific individuals, and especially if any link to government or Trump’s circle is found, it would constitute a serious case of insider trading and market manipulation.
From a market perspective, these events also raise concerns about fairness and information asymmetry. The fact that options monitors caught these moves in real time and flagged them publicly is encouraging – it shows the market community is vigilant.
But it’s cold comfort to ordinary investors if a few insiders can repeatedly front-run major policy news.
Confidence level in the insider trading interpretation here is high. Using the best‑fit probabilities from our analysis (≈ 70% for Apple, ≈ 75% for Nvidia), we estimate roughly a 92% chance that at least one of the trades exploited insider information, and about a 50–60% chance that both did.
Final Take: Apple (AAPL) & Nvidia (NVDA) Options Activity (April 7-16, 2025)
The pattern of unusual stock and options trading in Apple and Nvidia between April 7 and 16, 2025 strongly indicates potential insider trading linked to Trump’s tariff-related communications.
The trades line up almost tick‑for‑tick with Trump’s tariff exemptions and subsequent reversals.
Size, strike selection, expiry, and instantaneous pay‑offs leave little room for coincidence.
Alternative stories—rumor surfing after Tim Cook’s hallway cameo, macro curve plays, eleventh‑hour hedges—explain only a small fraction of the timing and leverage on display.
Consequently, the most coherent reading is that insider information—or a very tight whisper network—drove these trades. If confirmed, they would represent a textbook abuse of material non‑public information and a direct hit to market integrity.
Regulators will feel pressure not just to penalize the actors involved, but to tighten the channels through which policy moves can leak.
Until that reckoning happens, the message to ordinary investors is stark: in a headline‑driven market, a select few can still front‑run the news—and turn millions in minutes—while everyone else reacts after the bell.
References:
Reuters: Bullish trade in Apple options reaps gains as shares jump on tariff exemption
Reuters: Global chip stocks slide as Nvidia warns of $5.5 billion hit from U.S. export curbs
Los Angeles Times: Confusion grips Big Tech over exemptions from Trump tariffs
Los Angeles Times: Tech shares fall after Nvidia says new U.S. controls on exports of AI chip will cost it $5.5 billion
U.S. Senate Banking Committee: Letter to SEC re DJT Tariff Insider Trading (PDF)
X (Twitter) Unusual Whales: NVDA net premium turned overwhelmingly negative in the final 15 minutes