2026 Super Bowl LX Prediction: Seahawks vs. Patriots
I think many are likely underrating the Pats... but I'm still picking the Seahawks.
I picked the Seahawks to win Super Bowl LX before the playoffs.
Many others did too. This wasn’t some sort of “dark horse” Super Bowl candidate… the Seahawks were the odds-on favorite and #1 NFC seed entering the playoffs.
All AIs (Grok, Gemini, Claude, GPT) picked the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl in pre-playoff picks.
I correctly predicted the winners of the 2026 NFL Conference Championships: Seahawks and Patriots (but most people likely did this).
The Seahawks pass my “eye test”… every time I watched them play, they stood out… high-octane and in control.
In an NFL season with extreme parity, the Seahawks looked a clear Notch Above most teams, more consistent, and immunized against the parity effect.
The Seahawks have been a predictably well-rounded team with the #7 reg season offense in yards (351.4 ypg) and #6 reg season defense in yards allowed (285.9 yapg).
Darnold began the 2025-2026 NFL season in lethal sniper mode (looking like the MVP frontrunner), then regressed a bit as the season progressed… but it didn’t matter because the Seahawks were too dynamic with JSN (leading WR), Kupp, Walker III, Charbonnet… and the strategic addition of Rashid Shaheed (whoever decided to get Shaheed = high IQ judgment call).
Even in the games Seattle lost (e.g. Baker/Buccs beat them 38-35 early in the season), the Seahawks could’ve won… in the Buccs game they should’ve won… they were in control of their destiny and Darnold threw a gift to the Buccs defense with tie game.
The Seahawks don’t have any brutal defeats… their 3 losses were:
49ers (Sep 7): 17-13
Buccs (Oct 5): 38-35
Rams (Nov 16): 21-19
Not only were their losses close, the Seahawks proved they could win any type of game. They are battle tested.
Low-scoring defensive slugfest? They can win that 13-3.
High-scoring OT shootout? They can win that 38-37.
For a moment I thought the Seahawks were going to choke yesterday’s game away via braindead defensive taunting which set up the Stafford to Puka TD… Stafford played great and I’ll reiterate that I think he deserves (and will win) the 2025-2026 NFL MVP.
The Rams had some late-game momentum, yet the Seahawks regained their bearings and course-corrected after some late-game psychological lapses… this wasn’t just any win… they took down the bona fide #1 offense in the NFL and likely MVP — plus a team with a Super Bowl winning coach and QB.
The Seahawks defense redeemed themselves after the taunting… and Walker III showcased some freakish offensive agility when they needed it most.
The Seahawks are now on a 9 game win streak.
Okay… but what about those Patriots?
One could make a lawyerly case that the Patriots are more well-rounded than the Seahawks.
The Patriots had the #3 overall reg season offense in yards (379.4 ypg) and #8 overall reg season defense in yards allowed (295.2 yapg).
If we combine those metrics in a vacuum and compare to the Seahawks, some might consider the Pats to be technically superior.
If we adjust for things like strength of schedule and analyze Team Total DVOA, the Seahawks come out ahead by a pronounced margin.
Nevertheless, depending on how you tweak the stats, there are many ways to argue for Patriots being the superior 2025-2026 team.
And just like the Seahawks, the Patriots didn’t have any “bad beats” this season.
Additionally, like the Seahawks, the Pats only lost 3 games:
Raiders (Sep 7): 20-13
Steelers (Sep 21): 21-14
Bills (Dec 14): 35-31
2 of 3 three losses came early in the season (September) while Maye was getting a feel for things under Vrabel’s system… and the only recent loss for Pats was the Bills in December (and it was down-to-the-wire… Pats up 24-7 at halftime… and lose.)
Whenever I tuned into Pats football this year, they mostly obliterated the competition… a model of consistency.
And I’ll keep repeating it: I like the Pats defense more than the offense despite the “higher ranking” of the Pats offense. These aren’t clean 1:1 comparisons. This playoffs, the Pats defense clearly carried the team.
My subjective gut instinct all year has been that the Pats defense is more valuable than the offense… every game I watched the defense was setting Maye up with good field position and/or not allowing points.
Variables like strength of schedule can sometimes matter in determining how we should interpret some of the stats.
Did the Pats rack up a lot of points on offense and/or generate a lot of elite defensive performances against shitty teams? If so, stats might be somewhat misleading.
Thoughts on the Patriots’ 2026 postseason?
Defensive juggernauts doing just enough on offense to eke out wins.
They faced the top 2 defenses (Texans and Broncos) and 3 of the top 5 defenses (Chargers ranked #5) in their 3 playoff games.
It doesn’t get much tougher for Maye. And while I think the Broncos would’ve won with Bo Nix… it’s irrelevant.
I also think Broncos should have had the game in OT. Denver’s biggest err was “going for it” with Stiddy early in the game on 4th down in scoring position against that NE defense… just kick the FG and get to 10. Romo said it, I said it. I think Payton was hoping for a momentum/confidence boost and it backfired.
Thankfully we have a better Super Bowl matchup than if Broncos had won.
Leading up to Super Bowl LX (2026 Levi’s Stadium)
The Super Bowl will be played at Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco. Average tickets cost ~0.1 BTC and ~3 ETH.
I’d love to see: (1) the Seahawks win in beat-down, blowout fashion… but (2) I’d also love to see a close game… (3) I also wouldn’t be mad if Pats won… they had a great year… (4) but I’d prefer the winner to be Seattle.
My perspective: I think neutral fans and the media may be overrating the Seahawks leading into the Super Bowl… especially those predicting Seahawks domination (i.e. win by 3+ TD).
This NFL season had way too much parity for me to predict a “Seahawks rout” as the base case in Super Bowl LX.
The Seahawks have the #6 defense in yapg… which should make life a little easier for Drizzy Drake Maye and the Pats offense relative to what they faced en route to SB.LX (Chargers, Texans, Broncos).
Statistically, Seattle will be the “easiest” defense the Pats face in the 2026 postseason.
Additionally, the Patriots will be the toughest defense (by far) that the Seahawks face in the 2026 postseason… they played a depleted 49ers defense (trounced them)… then played a mediocre-at-best Rams defense (put up the expected points).
The Pats will be a higher degree of difficulty for Sam Darnold and the Seahawks offense.
And while the Pats defense has been “#1 in the postseason” allowing just ~209.7 ypg, we must mentally adjust for the fact that they played: (1) Texans (mediocre offense + zero N. Collins + snow-slop game) and (2) Denver without Bo Nix (Stiddy played)… easier to rack up great stats. So I’m ignoring postseason stats for Pats and focusing on regular season.
So this combination results in potentially mentally underrating the Patriots:
Pats played elite defenses (Chargers, Texans, Broncos): Top 2 + 3 of Top 5. (Leads to the false impression that they regressed on offense)
Seahawks played weak defenses (49ers + Rams): Easy to rack up points. (Will be tougher against NE)
Patriots have a Top 8 defense. (Better than any team the Seahawks have faced this postseason)
Patriots are the most balanced team the Seahawks will face this post-season.
Seahawks have a lower ranked defense than Chargers, Texans, Broncos. (In theory should be slightly easier to handle for Maye)
Underrating the Patriots entering Super Bowl LX is easy to do.
The Patriots have a perfect 8-0 record away from home. Clearly they can ball on the road. (The Seahawks are 8-1 on the road… so both should be fine playing “away.”)
The Patriots have a better turnover differential (+3) vs. Seahawks (-3)… but I’m not sure how much this matters though since the Pats had a weaker schedule (this gap is somewhat expected)… but if I’m steelmanning the Pats this is worth mentioning.
The Patriots have some potent offensive weapons: Diggs can fly by anyone, Boutte had a great year, Stevenson at RB is solid, and guys like Hunter Henry and Mack Hollins can randomly step up. Maye had an MVP-finalist-caliber season.
And the Patriots are on a 6 game win streak.
Why I think Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl LX
Confidence: Low
Team Total DVOA: SEA clocked in with a 41.3% Team Total DVOA and NE clocked in with a 10.6% Team Total DVOA. What is DVOA? Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team’s performance to a league-average baseline based on situation and opponent. If we account for regular season + playoffs, the numbers are: 44.9% for SEA and 16.5% for NE.
Levi’s Stadium (Proximity to Seattle): Seahawks fans don’t have to travel far to watch their team in the Super Bowl. I think this should favor Seattle… it may not be the full “12th man effect” but it might be an 11.5th man effect or something. Logically I would think a fanbase advantage Seahawks. But who knows… Patriots are “America’s Team.”
Extra week rest (helps Darnold + LTs): Should have both teams at their best entering the Super Bowl. Darnold’s oblique injury should be fully healed. Although both teams need the rest, the Seahawks benefit more from this than the Pats… Darnold’s oblique was still not 100% and Seattle was depleted at left-tackle.
Performance relative to SOS: Seattle ranked #4 for “strength of schedule” on TeamRankings (#15 for “SOS” on ESPN) during the 2025-2026 season and still managed to get the #1 overall seed. The Pats had the easiest SOS in the league according to TeamRankings and ESPN. SOS doesn’t matter that much and just because your SOS is weak doesn’t mean you’re not great… Pats destroyed most teams and had an FPI of 2.7 (points above average) which ranks at #10. Seattle had an FPI of 7.0 (the league’s best).
Offensive weapons: JSN, Cupp, Walker III. You can do a lot with these 3. Add in a Darnold who is dialed in without oblique limitations… and this is a difficult offense to stop. Not sure if they’ll use Holani more than they did against Rams (they barely used him)… but Walker III ran so well I wouldn’t be surprised if they just make him carry the load… outside shot at MVP.
Performance against Texans: Seattle didn’t play many top-tier defenses this year. The Texans are the closest to the Pats in terms of defense they’ve faced… and the Texans have a much weaker offense than the Pats. The Seahawks beat the Texans 27-19 on Oct 20 (early in the season)… it’s possible Texans defense wasn’t in elite form then… but still a reference point worth considering.
Variables I consider mostly “a wash” or irrelevant…
Penalties: Both Patriots and Seahawks are disciplined teams. They give up ~5.3 (NE) and ~5.7 (SEA) penalties per game. Despite differences in numbers, the Pats gave up more total penalty yards for the 2025-2026 season. This is mostly a wash.
Efficiencies: Team efficiency ratings for the Seahawks and Patriots are #1 and #2, respectively with EFFs of: 73.6 (SEA) and 71.1 (NE). Seattle has a higher EFF on Defefnse and Special Teams… NE has a higher EFF on Offense.
Coaching: Both the Seahawks and Patriots have excellent head coaches and coordinators with plenty of experience. Vrabel and Macdonald are both coach of the year nominees for 2025 (along with Kyle Shanahan, Liam Coen, Ben Johnson). Macdonald x Kubiak x Durde vs. Vrabel x McDaniels x Willaims. It’s mostly a wash… for some reason I want to give a slight edge to Macdonald but it’s too close to do that.
Special Teams (minus kicking): Seattle averages 28.0 yards per return vs. New England ~25.5. Both teams scored 1 kickoff-return TD. New England has better pure punt-return efficiency, but Seattle has cleaner ball security. Pats averaged 17.3 per punt return vs. Seattle at 15.4 and both teams had 2 punt-return TDs. Pats had 2 fumbles on punt returns and Seattle had 0. Seattle also had 1 punt block (Pats had 0). Seattle has slightly better direct coverage on kickoffs (opponents getting 24.0 yards per return vs. 25.3 yards vs. NE). Seattle comes out ahead on punt net average (coverage, returns, touchbacks)… Seattle is slightly ahead (net: 42.2 for SEA vs. 40.6 NE). Pats allowed fewer punt return yards per return (~12.0 yards per return vs. ~15.5 yards per return for Seahawks). I wouldn’t get too deep into the statistical weeds here… it’s a tossup.
Kicking: Both Jason Myers and Andy Borregales are good kickers. Myers was 41/48 (85.4%) on FGs and 48/48 on PATs. Borregales was 27/32 on FGs and 53/55 on PATs. In the playoffs Myers is 2/2 FGs and 5/5 PATs and Borregales is 3/3 FGs and 5/5 PATs. Mostly a wash… maybe slight edge Seattle.
Strength of Schedule: You can’t control strength of schedule (SOS)… but by most metrics the Seahawks had one of the toughest regular season schedules in 2025-2026. The Patriots’ schedule ranked relatively low in difficulty (some had them marked as the “easiest schedule” in the NFL). This doesn’t mean much as I’ve said because Pats still kicked ass in performance relative to schedule. Not something I’m seriously weighting as a negative for NE… but it could be considered somewhat of a positive for SEA.
Post-bye performance: Some might argue the week after your “bye” performance gives subtle preview for how you might react with an extra week off before the Super Bowl. Teams can lose momentum. Pats lost after their “bye” week this season… but I don’t think this means anything given they played a very tough Buffalo Bills team to a 31-35 final score. The Seahawks won after their “bye” week but played the Commanders (38-14 W).
Historical matchups: Some people like using “history” between 2 franchises to help them make predictions. This might can be an entertaining and/or psychologically satisfying thing to do… but its 1000% useless. It does NOT matter what an entirely different roster did 10 years ago against another entirely different roster 10 years ago… or whatever. It shouldn’t be given serious weight.
What about betting on the winner?
Do I have “skin in the game?” No. I don’t play “Draft Kings” or “Fan Duel”… but if I bet it’ll be on Polymarket.
I predict that the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl LX: 28-24 with low confidence.
And I want the Seahawks to win… but that did not factor into my prediction (I pick winners in effort to be accurate and this is not influenced by who I personally want to win).
From my judgment, “smart money” is on the Pats straight up or spread +4.5 (this isn’t betting advice… I wouldn’t bet here).
Can sometimes be fun to fade the masses and throw some money at the game.
If I were to bet? It would be on the Seahawks because in coin-flip type games, I bet on who I want to win… makes the win better.
Some stats I looked at…