2026 NFL Playoff Predictions: AIs vs. Human in a High Parity Season
ChatGPT (5.2-Pro & DR), Gemini 3.0, Grok 4, Claude 4.5 Opus
This year’s playoffs are happening in the most important context people may not have thought much about:
The 2025 regular season was structurally “close” at a near-record level.
That doesn’t mean “no team is elite.” It means the margin between “wins” and “losses” got thin often enough that outcomes were unusually sensitive to single plays, single injuries, single turnover bounces, and single coaching decisions.
How much parity did the NFL have in 2025 — and was it abnormal?
The NFL’s own analytics recap reports:
73 games in 2025 were decided by 3 or fewer points, tied with 2018 and 2022 for the most ever.
That’s the headline. Subtle nuance: the season has more games than 2018 did but the same as 2022.
So the “73” tie is real in raw count, but not identical in per-game rate:
2025: 73 / 272 = 26.8% of games decided by ≤3
2018: 73 / 256 = 28.5% of games decided by ≤3
2022: Identical with 2025 (also 272 games)
Reality: 2025 was still extreme, even after correcting for the extra games. But 2018 was slightly “crazier” per game.
The stat that matters more than standings: games stayed close deep into the game
NFL analytics uses win probability to measure “closeness” and finds:
At halftime, 94% of games were still in the “not over yet” band (each team between 5% and 95% win probability).
Translation: Even when a team was “winning,” the game often wasn’t functionally decided.
That is the kind of season where:
late penalties matter more
special teams matter more
red zone variance matters more
turnovers matter more
a QB limping at 80% matters more
a single matchup exploit matters more
“momentum” is still not a science… but confidence and aggression swings are amplified
A fun “non-transitivity” parity marker: The 2025 Circle of Parity was completed — meaning you can draw a full 32-team win loop where each team beat the next team. It’s a meme, not a serious metric, but it’s a great visualization of why single-game transitivity is garbage in the NFL (“we beat a team that beat a team that beat you…”). The 2025 circle was completed after the Jets’ 39–38 win over the Bengals on Oct. 26, 2025.
Why 2025 felt like an “any given Sunday” factory
A big share of the league lived in a high-variance regime:
lots of teams had enough offense to score 20–30
lots of defenses were good enough to force punts/turnovers
and the gap between “top playoff team” and “good playoff team” wasn’t enormous
So now the playoffs are basically: top teams, close matchups, high leverage, higher variance.
AIs Predict the 2026 Playoffs
I had 5 AIs predict the entire 2026 NFL playoffs before they began.
ChatGPT 5.2 Pro
ChatGPT 5.2 Deep Research (standard)
Claude 4.5 Opus (Research mode)
Gemini 3.0 Pro (Deep Research)
Grok 4 Expert (because 4.1/Thinking isn’t as good)
AIs aren’t crystal balls (they’re just information algorithms) and output is heavily contingent upon the prompt utilized. The prompt I used was fairly detailed, but not excessively because I didn’t want to pigeonhole AIs into a specific way of thinking.
I listed variables the AIs could consider thinking about (with zero obligation to use them). The AIs had freedom to do what they wanted but the goal was the most accurate predictions. This meant using any data that they considered most useful.
The variables they could consider:
injuries (as reported)
momentum and trends
H2H matchup notes
coaching strategy
efficiency metrics
relevant stats
rankings (yards, points, etc.)
weather forecast and stadium effects
odds/betting lines (if important)
But even if the model considers 50 variables, it still runs into the same walls:
unknown health reality (not just “out/questionable,” but functional limitations)
gameplan surprises (coverage disguises, motion exploitation, fourth-down choices)
turnover volatility (tips, strips, fumble recoveries)
ref/clock randomness
high-leverage sequencing (a bad INT in the red zone is worth more than 50 normal plays)
This is why you should not assume an AI is better than you at predicting.
The best AI does not “know the future.”
It compresses public info into a coherent story (determined by the algo) — sometimes a very good one, but the playoffs punish overconfidence.
Even if the AI ends up picking well, we don’t really know how much of it was luck.
“AI might not be better than you” is not cope
In a tight year like 2025-2026, we can see outcomes where:
A blindfolded monkey does better than AI
A casual fan does better
Mascot-pickers do better
Not because skill doesn’t exist, but because the variance ceiling is high.
Personally: I don’t like outsourcing any of my predictions to AI. I like thinking for myself… it’s not fun if I’m outsourcing my thinking to an AI or even NFL “expert.” I want to do the picking and test my own judgment. Since this year was high parity, many correct regular season picks may have been more attributable to “luck” than good judgment.
Note: I completed my picks before the AIs. Was surprised at the consensus for many… didn’t expect everyone to pick the same SB winner.
Why perfect NFL brackets are rare (permutational math)
There are 13 playoff games total (6 WC + 4 Div + 2 Conf + SB).
Each game has 2 outcomes.
So the number of possible winner-combinations is:
2¹³ = 8,192
If you guess randomly, a perfect bracket is:
1 / 8,192 = 0.0122% (about 1 in 8,192)
Even if you’re “good” and average 60% per game, you’re still looking at:
0.6¹³ ≈ 0.13% (about 1 in 765)
When someone talks like an “AI model” is going to reliably nail the bracket… they’re misunderstanding how thin the edge is in a playoff format.
What the 5 AIs picked vs. my bracket
Wild Card Round
All of the AIs agree on 5 of the 6 Wild Card winners:
Rams, Bears, Eagles, Patriots, Texans.
The only Wild Card disagreement among AIs is Bills vs Jaguars:
ChatGPT 5.2 Pro + ChatGPT Deep Research pick Bills
Claude + Gemini + Grok pick Jaguars
My two deviations from “AI majority” in Round 1:
I take Packers over Bears (AIs all take Bears)
I take Bills over Jaguars (I align with the two ChatGPT versions)
What the AI stack suggests…
The Rams are the strongest “obvious” Wild Card pick.
The Eagles, Patriots, and Texans are treated as structurally stable.
Bears–Packers is framed as rivalry + home-field + situational edge to Chicago.
Bills–Jags is the true fork in the road.
Score + confidence reality check (this matters in a parity year)
Even when all the models pick the same team, their confidence and score margin vary a lot.
Example: Rams @ Panthers (everyone takes Rams)
Models ranged from Rams 27–24 to Rams 34–17.
This gap is telling you how much uncertainty lives inside “the same pick.”
My Round 1 Wild Card Picks
(5) Rams vs. (4) Panthers
Rams had an elite year—Stafford slinging it to Puka and Kyren (Corum out for playoffs… big loss) but they’re getting Adams back, great coaching (McVay), proven Super Bowl pedigree. Rams finished with the #2 overall DVOA, #1 in offensive yards and TDs. Panthers could sneak one (they’ve got that win-lose streak thing going and ended on a down note in shitty weather), but their offense is nothing special and defense is just middling. I’d be shocked if Carolina pulled the upset. Rams roll.
This is the cleanest “team quality + coaching + offense” mismatch of the weekend.
Per Fox Sports season rankings, the Rams finished #1 in total offense at 394.6 yards/game, and also #1 in offensive TDs (65).
The Panthers are much lower in offensive output (295.6 yards/game) and scoring (18.3 ppg), and their season profile screams inconsistency.
What could flip it anyway (parity tax):
turnovers + short fields
weather
a slow start that lets Carolina play “low-variance” football (run, punt, field position)
AI stack: 5/5 Rams
Me: Rams (though I’d love to see an upset)
(7) Packers vs. (2) Bears
Classic rivalry shit in prime time, basically a remix of their last meeting. Bears closed the season with a tight loss to the Lions, picked up some injuries, lost a key CB late. Packers don’t have Parsons anymore (huge drop in their odds without him). Packers rested guys the last couple weeks—fresher, healthier.
The Week 16 game in Chicago, Green Bay had red zone chances but fucked them up, then Willis came in hot but Bears stole it late with some luck. Packers have better overall DVOA and defense (but these may be misleading now that no more Parsons).
Bears have the better offense and are playing in the Windy City. Bears defense plays more smash mouth than any team I’ve seen this year. Caleb Williams can be clutch at times. Not confident here, but rolling the dice and going Packers.
Key things I’m weighing (my logic):
Chicago can absolutely win this with smash-mouth defense + QB clutch moments.
I think Green Bay is more rested and has a path to finish drives better than last time.
I’m not confident — I’m just taking the side that I think has the better “execution bounce-back” setup.
AI stack: 5/5 Bears
Me: Packers
(6) Bills vs. (3) Jaguars
This game is where the models split because both narratives are strong.
Allen nursing a foot thing but he’ll play through it like always. Jags have been absolute fire—Lawrence cooking, 8-game win streak to end the year, beat Broncos bad late in the year. Slight edge to Bills on O and D overall. Bills closed on a 6-game win streak themselves. I’ll take Bills to gut it out on the road against a tough Jags team.
The Jaguars case (3 AIs pick them):
home game
team momentum
Lawrence is playing elite football
they closed hot (8-game win streak narrative)
The Bills case (2 AIs + me):
Allen’s ceiling
playoff experience
top 10 on O and D
Buffalo finished hot too (6-game win streak narrative)
My stance:
Allen’s foot issue is mildly concerning — it can cap mobility and change his angles.
But I’m betting that if he’s good enough to play, he’s good enough to get the job done in the playoffs.
AI stack: 3/5 Jaguars, 2/5 Bills
Me: Bills
(6) 49ers vs. (3) Eagles
One of the hardest WC games to pick. 49ers with CMC are versatile as hell, well-coached, offense pops even with defensive injuries giving up points late in the year. But they’re in Philly, defending champs who smoked KC in the Super Bowl last year.
Eagles offense didn’t wow me this year, but are solid and a tough match every week. Sharp defense in the latter half of the season, Hurts/AJ/Devonta/Saquon etc. Home crowd will be hostile. Eagles looked shaky in the last game of the regular season, but I’m going with Philly.
Shanahan, Purdy and CMC could play spoiler though… wouldn’t shock me.
Why I’m on Philly:
Home crowd + hostile cold environment
The Eagles are the defending champs
The defensive form late season looked good
What about the 9ers:
Shanahan can steal this with sequencing and versatility.
If the Eagles have one of those “dead stretch” offensive games, this can flip fast.
AI stack: 5/5 Eagles
Me: Eagles
(7) Chargers vs. (2) Patriots
Pats at home, riding an elite defense and MVP-caliber play from Drake Maye. Harbaugh and Herbert could road-win it (Herbert’s been banged up with a left-hand fracture, affects grip/mental side) and Chargers just keep winning somehow. Still, Pats are vibing as a team, top-10 on both O and D (#3 offensive yards, #8 defensive yards, #9 DVOA) plus at home. One of the most balanced squads in football. Going New England. If Chargers won I wouldn’t be that shocked though.
Why I’m on New England:
The Pats are top-tier on both sides in the macro profile.
Fox Sports has them as #3 in total offense (379.4 yards/game) and #8 in total defense (295.2 yards allowed/game).
Drake Maye MVP-level season + home game = stable setup.
What could flip it:
Herbert/Harbaugh pulling off a “steal one” road game
Patriots offensive mistakes letting the Chargers play field-position ball
AI stack: 5/5 Patriots
Me: Patriots
(5) Texans vs. (4) Steelers
Steelers survived Week 18 on a missed kick (after their own miss—wild), get DK back, Rodgers at home for the fans. But Texans have the juggernaut #1 defense—visually and stats—they’re wolves out there but offense is mid (#18). Steelers have been shaky all around (bottom-7 offensive yards, bottom-6 defensive). Home crowd could intimidate, low-scoring clock-drain if they jump ahead. Anything possible, and I’d love Steelers to pull it... but Texans look too lethal on D. Going Houston.
Why I’m taking Houston:
Their defense is clearly the best in the league (may have Rodgers ready to retire).
Fox Sports has them #1 in total defense at 277.2 yards allowed/game.
What could flip it:
Steelers get a lead early and turn it into a clock-drain grind
home crowd + chaos + a low-scoring script
one defensive TD (variance spike)
AI stack: 5/5 Texans
Me: Texans (but I’d enjoy a Steelers upset)
Conference Winners + Super Bowl Pick
All 5 AIs pick the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl.
4 of 5 AIs pick the Broncos to win the AFC.
Gemini is the only AI that flips the AFC to Patriots.
My bracket flips the AFC harder: I have the Bills winning the AFC and losing to Seattle in the Super Bowl. (I want the Bills to win it… but my logic tells me Seattle looks too good and has been too consistent… plus the first-round-bye, home field advantage, and a SB very close to Seattle).
My 2026 NFL Playoff Predictions (The Human)
Wild Card
Rams over Panthers
Packers over Bears
Bills over Jaguars
Eagles over 49ers
Patriots over Chargers
Texans over Steelers
Divisional
Seahawks over Packers
Rams over Eagles
Patriots over Texans
Bills over Broncos
Conference Championships
Seahawks over Rams
Deja Vu potential… OT decision late in the season that could’ve gone either way. Both teams looked great but I’m taking the home team that has been more consistent all year. Am taking Seattle to win another one against the Rams. Hoping for another thriller/classic if this matchup comes to fruition.
Bills over Patriots (AFC)
They split this year—Pats won 23-20 early in Buffalo, Bills 35-31 late in NE. An even matchup. Bills slight DVOA edge. NE inexperience may show in a big game with high stakes. The question is whether Josh Allen is healthy enough. Am going to gamble that Allen stays healthy and am picking Buffalo to the Super Bowl against the odds, grinding out all road wins.
Super Bowl (Levi’s Stadium)
Seahawks over Bills
My final answer is the same endpoint as every AI model: Seattle wins.
But I get there with a different AFC story, and one key Round 1 divergence (Packers over Bears).
No head-to-head between Seahawks and Bills this year. Would be the first SB for Darnold and Allen. Both QBs great, I’d root a bit more for Buffalo/Allen magic.
Seattle better on paper (DVOA), chalk favorite, Seahawks fans will have easy travel to Levi’s Stadium (closer than Buffalo). Defenses pretty even, offenses strong—comes down to health, strategy, bounces. Brain says Seahawks win it.
Synthesis: the “AI + me” hivemind
The strongest shared consensus
Even with different logic styles, different sources, and different prompts:
Seattle is the consensus 2026 SB Champ. Every AI picks them and I pick them.
That doesn’t mean Seattle is “guaranteed.”
But if you force a coherent prediction from public info, Seattle is the least insane champion pick.
Volatility levers
Bills vs Jaguars
AIs split 3–2
I side with Bills
This is the “fork game” that changes the AFC tree.
Packers vs Bears
AIs go 5/5 Bears
I go Packers
Rivalry + home field + injury context makes this exactly the kind of game a parity year turns into a coin flip.
AFC champion
4 AIs say Broncos
1 AI says Patriots
I say Bills
This is basically the “nobody has certainty here” zone.
2026 NFL hivemind playoff bracket
This is the bracket when you force the most literal majority-vote bracket from the AI stack.
It’s mostly just betting odds “chalk” (BORING AF but sometimes BORING AF is what’s most logical… and sometimes “chalk” happens or is closer to the outcome than making risky picks).
Wild Card: Rams, Bears, Jaguars, Eagles, Patriots, Texans
Divisional: Seahawks, Eagles, Broncos, Patriots
Conference: Seahawks, Broncos
Super Bowl: Seahawks
That’s the clean consensus story.
Closing thoughts…
Seattle is the chalk pick for a reason: Balance + defense + #1 seed structure + home field to SB path = the classic playoff formula.
With high parity in the 2025-2026 season, the less arrogant you should be about any single prediction.
If you want to stack the odds in your favor and are strategically picking (as opposed to standard brain/gut pick without stats), it’s strategic to pick a SB team that gets a first-round BYE (as they have rest + home field advantage path to SB + are guaranteed to survive the first round). Then again, way less differentiation from the masses… strategic differentiation can be smart too.
DISCLAIMER: NONE OF THIS IS GAMBLING/BETTING ADVICE. I DID THESE PICKS FOR FUN. IF YOU GAMBLE, BE RESPONSIBLE/DON’T BE A DUMBASS.
NOTE: Making picks round-by-round is far easier than entire playoffs pre-playoffs. I like doing both.