Predicting Bitcoin's Next 3 Cycles: 2025, 2029, 2033 (Future Projections)

Yesterday with the help of AI, I published a historical thought experiment of retroactive predictions for Bitcoin’s bull/bear cycles (2011-2021) using data only up to the prior cycle’s bear trough to make predictions for each subsequent cycle.

For this specific piece, I conducted a forward-looking (futuristic) thought experiment that used known data up to November 2022’s trough ($15,600) - with each prediction made for the next 3 Bitcoin cycles (assuming “cycles” continue) - estimated to be: 2025 (now), 2029, and 2033.

This means our predictions from 2022 have zero information about: current ETFs (for BTC/ETH), Trump 2.0 (embracing crypto), the rate of BTC/crypto adoption, companies putting crypto on balance sheets, etc. All we know is there was a major crash post-2021 peak and the hype fizzled.

In addition to our predictions for the next 3 cycles, we estimated a date when the “significant” halving-driven cycles might end or lose much of their punch… keep in mind that our model is highly speculative based mostly on historical halving cycles, diminishing returns, and large bear-market corrections.

Real outcomes will probably differ significantly. It will be fun to look back on this piece in a few years to see how it did for the current 2025 cycle… and later for the 2029 and 2033 cycles (assuming this site exists, I exist, etc.).

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Vantage Point: Nov 2022 (Trough at $15,600)

At this moment, we know:

• Previous Peak (Nov 2021): $69,000

• Bear Market (2022): 77–78% drop to $15,600 (Nov 2022)

• Historical Patterns:

  • Roughly 3–4 years from one peak to the next;

  • Large run-ups (peak-to-peak multiples diminishing over time);

  • Major bear corrections of 70–85%.

With only that knowledge, here’s how we might predict the next three cycles (2022–2033+).

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Cycle #1 (Post-2022 Trough → ~2025/26 Peak)

1. Halving Timing: Next halving is expected around April 2024.

2. Peak Timing: Historically, BTC peaks ~12–18 months post-halving, suggesting mid/late 2025 is plausible. Let’s pick Q4 2025.

3. Bull Market Multiple:

   • Last trough-to-peak (2018–2021) was ~22× ($3,128 → $69k).