GPT-5.2 Pro: 2026 Super Bowl LX Prediction: Seahawks vs. Patriots
The AI goes with the Seahawks.
I gave GPT-5.2 Pro freedom to use whatever data it thought would help it make the highest accuracy prediction it could for Super Bowl LX between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots.
I already did my “zero AI” 100% human Super Bowl LX prediction.
Quick note: IDK if OpenAI is focused on reducing token output or what but on ChatGPT I’ve been getting ultra-concise responses… and it’s a recent thing. I don’t really care for it, but I get it… probably trying to save money.
5.2-Pro “Extended Thinking” used 7 sources and “Thought for 24m 8s.” I wasn’t overly impressed, but I still think it’s good.
5.2-Pro “Pro Thinking” used 164 sources and “Reasoned for 17m 38s.”
I would argue with many of GPT-5.2 Pros’ points here.
My analysis of GPT-5.2 Pro’s analysis… borderline pathetic relative to its ability.
You can read through the points it makes… these were the cognitive reactions in my head when reading what it spat out.
DVOA: GPT-5.2-Pro used DVOA (opponent-adjusted efficiency) for a major point of its analysis (that’s fine and probably smart). The problem here is that DVOA alone may be misleading. DVOA ranks the Pats defense as 23rd best in the NFL! That’s absurd. We can just look at: (1) points allowed per game (NE ranks #2 overall) and (2) yards allowed per game (NE ranks #8). This is CLEARLY a top 10 defense… not a bottom 10 defense. This is why we must think critically about just relying on DVOA.
Maye was sacked 47 times in part because he held onto the ball longer than most QBs. It wasn’t necessarily because he was under-the-gun/pressure… much of this was self-induced. He could always throw sooner… but Maye taking sacks is partly due to his specific style of game, not the offensive line. Maye could have a gameplan to get rid of the ball a bit quicker… and he may have been improving throughout the season.
Pats QB edge is real? Perhaps, but we should pump the breaks a little bit. I think Maye may be a bit overhyped based on who the Pats played. They had one of the weakest schedules this year and Seattle had one of the toughest.
Turnover differential: Much of this has to do with who you played as well. A weak schedule could easily explain this gap. When adjusting for SOS the gap may be nonexistent or even flip the other direction.
Injuries to NE? Yes injuries matter but Seattle was far more banged up than NE. They both get an extra week to recover before the big game. So yeah they need Spillane back but let’s not act like the Pats are hurting far more than Seattle. Seattle’s entire Left-Tackle position was depleted and they are gradually recovering.
Weather conditions: Thanks Cap’n Obvious. The NFL generally tries to select either a dome stadium (rendering weather irrelevant) or a location notorious for predictably favorable weather conditions — such that weather doesn’t decide or significantly influence the outcome of the game. I wouldn’t say that Pats had an “environment edge”… they had the same conditions as the teams they played! Bizarre point.
Prediction #1: GPT-5.2 Pro + Extended Thinking: Super Bowl LX
Super Bowl LX is Seahawks (14–3) vs Patriots (14–3) at Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara, CA) on Feb. 8, 2026.
Market baseline (useful because it aggregates a lot of information)
Current widely posted numbers (DraftKings via ESPN):
SEA -4.5 (opened -3.5)
Total 46.5
Moneyline: SEA -230, NE +190
ESPN model win prob: SEA 60.2% / NE 39.8%
Prediction
Seahawks win, 24–20.
Win odds (my estimate):
Seahawks 62% (fair ML ≈ -163)
Patriots 38% (fair ML ≈ +163)
Confidence: Medium (single NFL game + turnover variance).
This lands close to the market’s “Seahawks by ~a FG” view, but with a slightly lower total because the cleanest path to a Seahawks win is pressure + field position + forcing FGs.
Why I’m leaning Seahawks
1) Team-quality indicators: Seattle looks more complete
DVOA (efficiency, opponent-adjusted):
Seahawks: total 41.2% (1st); offense 8.5% (10th); defense -24.2% (1st); special teams 8.6% (2nd)
Patriots: total 10.5% (9th); offense 16.2% (3rd); defense 5.5% (23rd); special teams -0.1% (20th)
That profile matters in a Super Bowl because “two-ways + special teams” reduces the number of things that must go right.
2) The highest-leverage matchup is Seattle pass rush vs. Patriots protection
Two data points stack in the same direction:
Maye was sacked 47 times in the regular season (and still produced an elite stat line).
In the playoffs, CBS notes Maye won three straight games while taking 5+ sacks in each—an unusual (and hard-to-repeat) combo.
Seattle’s defense registered 47 sacks (7th) and 18 INTs (5th).
If Seattle consistently creates 2nd-and-long / 3rd-and-long, New England’s drive success becomes more fragile, even with a great QB.
3) Pats QB edge is real — but Seattle can still win without “out-QB’ing” them
Season leaders underline the QB gap:
Maye: 4,394 yards, 31 TD / 8 INT, 72% completion
Darnold: 4,048 yards, 25 TD / 14 INT, 67.7% completion
So my Seattle case is not “Darnold outduels Maye.” It’s:
Seattle’s defense keeps Maye in the low 20s,
Seattle’s special teams + defense shorten fields enough that Darnold doesn’t need to be perfect.
4) Hidden swing factor: turnovers favor New England (and that’s why I’m not calling this “easy”)
From NFL’s team comparison:
Seahawks turnover differential: -3 (19th)
Patriots turnover differential: +3 (10th)
This is the cleanest Patriots “flip-the-script” path: if Seattle fumbles again or Darnold has a multi-pick day, the entire game changes.
5) Injuries: New England’s second level is the one to watch
As of current listings:
Patriots: LB Robert Spillane (ankle) questionable; multiple defenders/RBs on IR (e.g., Farmer, Jennings, Gibson).
Seahawks: Charbonnet on IR (ACL); a few role players listed questionable (Thomas/Kight/Ouzts).
If Spillane is limited, it matters most against:
Seattle’s in-breakers/RAC concepts to Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1,793 yards) and
RB/TE checkdowns when pressure arrives.
6) Game conditions likely don’t suppress offense the way Denver did for NE
New England just won the AFC title in snowy conditions (10–7), where the game environment inherently compresses outcomes.
Santa Clara forecast looks mild (low-variance weather).
That helps both pass games, but it removes a recent Patriots “environment edge.”
How the 24–20 game happens (plausible script)
Seahawks: 2–3 TD drives, plus 1–2 short fields created by defense/special teams (net result: 24).
Patriots: Maye makes enough off-schedule plays to score 20, but Seattle’s pressure forces at least one drive to end in a FG instead of a TD.
This is broadly consistent with the market total (46.5) and spread (-4.5), just slightly more “defense wins early downs, offenses do enough late.”
What would make me wrong (Patriots upset checklist)
If two of these three happen, the Patriots can win outright:
Sack damage is modest (say 0–2 sacks, or sacks but no drive-killers on 3rd down).
Patriots win turnover margin by 1+ (Seattle’s -3 season differential is the warning sign).
Spillane is closer to 100%, and New England can play more man/pressure looks without getting punished underneath.
If you want a clean alternate upset score that matches that script: Patriots 23–21.
Bottom line
Pick: Seahawks
Odds: SEA 62% / NE 38% (fair ML ≈ SEA -163)
Score: Seahawks 24–20
Prediction #2: 5.2-Pro + Pro Thinking (Super Bowl LX)
I did another 5.2-Pro “Pro” analysis and it had a slightly different scoreline than the 5.2-Pro “Extended Thinking” think time.
“Pro” thought for 17m 38s. It had the exact same prompt. If you want to read what it had to say… it’s pasted below. (FYI: “Pro + Pro” uses less compute than “Pro + Extended Thinking”).
Game snapshot and market baseline
Matchup: Seattle Seahawks (NFC) vs. New England Patriots (AFC) in Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara, CA) on Sunday, February 8, 2026 (kickoff 6:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. CT).
Consensus market (early): Seahawks -4.5; O/U 46.5; ML Seahawks -225 / Patriots +185 (DraftKings line as reported).
No-vig implied win prob (rough): SEA ~66% / NE ~34% (from -225/+185 after vig adjustment).
2026 rules environment that matters most
Kickoffs: The NFL’s “dynamic kickoff” remains in effect, and in 2025 the league moved the touchback spot to the 35, materially increasing return rates—so field position + return specialists matter more than they did a few years ago.
Overtime: Since the 2025 rules update, both teams are guaranteed a possession in OT (with postseason OT continuing until a winner). It slightly changes late-game strategy (less “TD-first-possession = over” incentive).
GPT 5.2-Pro-ET prediction
Pick: Seahawks win
Projected score: Seahawks 27, Patriots 21
Win odds (probability): SEA 65% / NE 35%
Equivalent “fair” moneylines (no vig): SEA -186 / NE +186 (approx).
Confidence: 6/10 (moderate; one-game variance + turnover volatility are high)
I’m intentionally staying close to the betting market because, historically, it’s the single best publicly available aggregator of information (injuries, matchup, coaching, power ratings). “Edge” adjustments mostly come from trenches + turnover profile + special teams fit under the kickoff rules.
Variables that move GPT-5.2-Pro’s needle most
1) The trench mismatch: Seattle rush vs. New England protection
Seattle’s defense creates pressure (and is elite overall): they allowed opponents 4.4 yards/play and were a top scoring defense; their unit also made the decisive stand late vs. the Rams to clinch the NFC.
New England’s offense gave up a lot of sacks during the season (48), while Seattle’s defense generated major disruption (Seattle opponents took 47 sacks per NFL team stats page).
This matters because New England’s best “escape hatch” is Drake Maye’s passing efficiency (see below). If Seattle can force long down/distance with sacks or pressure-driven throwaways, it reduces New England’s explosive upside.
2) Seahawks run defense vs Patriots run plan
ESPN’s matchup data is blunt: teams can’t run on Seattle (league-low opponent success rate on designed runs, league-low EPA per play on those runs).
New England’s RB Rhamondre Stevenson has been leaned on in the postseason, but if Seattle’s front holds, the Patriots are more likely to become pass-heavy (which they’re capable of doing).
Net: I don’t think the Patriots can “Vrabel-ball” their way to a comfortable low-possession run game unless Seattle’s front has an off day.
3) The QB axis: Maye’s ceiling vs Darnold’s volatility
Why New England absolutely can win:
Drake Maye’s 2025 efficiency profile is elite by ESPN’s reporting (league-leading Total QBR, plus top-tier accuracy/efficiency metrics).
The Patriots’ passing offense graded as best in the league by ESPN’s EPA framing, and they’ve been willing to put the ball in Maye’s hands (pass rate over expected).
Why I still lean Seattle:
Seattle’s path is simpler: play defense-first, and let Sam Darnold hit enough explosives to win (he just threw for 346 yards and 3 TDs in the NFC title game).
Darnold’s “risk” is real: Seattle’s turnover issues were a season-long theme and Darnold’s second-half-of-season dip was notable in ESPN’s splits.
So this is essentially: Maye has the higher “single-player” ceiling, but Seattle’s defensive floor is higher.
4) Turnovers: the swing factor
If I had to name one variable most likely to flip my pick, it’s turnovers.
Team-level: Patriots finished +3 turnover ratio, Seahawks -3 on the NFL’s team stat pages.
Player-level: ESPN flags Seahawks’ high turnover count, and also notes ball-security concerns for Maye in the postseason.
My projection (SEA 27–21) implicitly assumes roughly even turnover margin. If New England is +2 in turnovers, I’d flip to a Patriots one-score win.
5) Special teams is more valuable under the kickoff rules
With more returns leaguewide under the current kickoff environment, a true return threat can swing expected points via hidden field position (or one breakaway play).
ESPN explicitly tags Rashid Shaheed as a Seahawks X-factor with explosive ability “as a receiver, a runner or on special teams.”
That’s a non-trivial edge in a game where both defenses are good enough to force punts/field goals.
6) Injury uncertainty (small but real this far out)
Key items that could move the number by kickoff:
Seahawks: Darnold has been managing an oblique issue in recent weeks (though he carried no game status entering the NFC title game per NFL.com reporting), and RB Zach Charbonnet suffered an ACL tear per ESPN.
Patriots: LB Robert Spillane (defensive signal-caller type) left the AFC title game with an ankle injury, per Reuters.
If Spillane is out (or limited), it’s a meaningful hit against a Seahawks offense that can stress underneath zones with JSN and create shot plays off play-action.
Why my score lands at 27–21
The betting total (46.5) and spread (4.5) imply something like SEA ~26 / NE ~21 as the median scoring environment.
I’m essentially saying: Seattle hits one extra explosive (or short field) that New England doesn’t, and both teams trade TDs/FGs in a game that’s competitive into the 4th.
How the Patriots win instead
For those who want the “most realistic” upset script, it’s this:
Maye avoids the killer fumble/INT,
New England’s protection holds up just enough to hit 2–3 explosives, and
They win turnover margin and force Seattle into a more dropback-heavy second half (where Darnold’s volatility is the risk).
That version of the game looks like Patriots 24, Seahawks 23.