2026 NFL Divisional Round Predictions (6 AIs + Human)
AIs predict the 2026 NFL Divisional Round matchups.
A comprehensive analysis featuring predictions from ChatGPT Deep Research, Grok 4 Expert, ChatGPT Agent Mode, GPT-5.2 Pro, Claude 4.5 Opus, and Gemini 3.0 Pro—plus the human perspective
NOTE: Multiple AIs used incorrect information to make their decisions (pulling info from last year and/or hallucinating). I’m making this note so that you know that I AM FULLY AWARE… just wanted to showcase how bad some of these still are (and they still have a ~50% chance of being correct anyway). Examples: Geno Smith (???), assuming Nico Collins is automatically “out,” etc.
Wild Card Weekend: Chaos, Comebacks, and Championship Dreams
The 2026 NFL postseason exploded out of the gates with one of the most thrilling Wild Card weekends in playoff history.
Four games were decided by four points or fewer—the most in any playoff round ever—delivering the kind of late-game drama that makes January football appointment viewing.
The Wild Card Results
Saturday, January 10:
Rams 34, Panthers 31 — Matthew Stafford engineered a 71-yard game-winning drive, finding Colby Parkinson for a 19-yard touchdown with just 38 seconds remaining. Stafford threw for 304 yards and three touchdowns in what may bolster his MVP case.
Bears 31, Packers 27 — Caleb Williams authored the third-largest fourth-quarter comeback in NFL playoff history, erasing an 18-point deficit. Williams threw for more yardage in the fourth quarter alone (184) than in the first three quarters combined (177), capping the miracle with a 25-yard strike to DJ Moore with 1:43 remaining.
Sunday, January 11:
Bills 27, Jaguars 24 — Josh Allen proved once again why he’s considered the best quarterback in the playoffs, willing Buffalo to victory in a back-and-forth thriller featuring four fourth-quarter lead changes. Allen’s clutch rushing touchdown sealed the deal.
49ers 23, Eagles 19 — Brock Purdy knocked out the defending champions despite throwing two interceptions. The victory, however, came at a devastating cost: All-Pro tight end George Kittle tore his Achilles and was carted off the field.
Patriots 16, Chargers 3 — New England’s defense put on a clinic, sacking Justin Herbert six times and holding the Chargers to just 207 total yards. Drake Maye was efficient in his playoff debut, throwing for 268 yards and rushing for 66 more.
Monday, January 12:
Texans 30, Steelers 6 — Houston’s defense delivered the only blowout of the weekend, sacking Aaron Rodgers four times, holding Pittsburgh to 175 yards, and scoring two defensive touchdowns in the fourth quarter—including Calen Bullock’s 50-yard pick-six to salt the game away. The Texans earned their first road playoff win in franchise history.
The Aftermath: Setting the Divisional Stage
As the dust settled, the playoff field crystallized into eight survivors.
The two top seeds—the Denver Broncos (AFC) and Seattle Seahawks (NFC)—emerged from their bye weeks fresh, while the Wild Card combatants nursed their wounds and prepared for shortened rest.
The injury fallout was severe:
Bills: Lost WR Gabe Davis (torn ACL), S Jordan Poyer (hamstring), and Josh Allen himself is playing through knee, foot, and hand issues
49ers: George Kittle (torn Achilles) is done; LB Fred Warner and S Ji’Ayir Brown unlikely to return; LT Trent Williams playing through a hamstring injury
Bears: LB T.J. Edwards (broken fibula) and LT Ozzy Trapilo (torn patella tendon) both lost for the playoffs
Texans: Star WR Nico Collins in concussion protocol
Rams: CB Ahkello Witherspoon placed on IR; Matthew Stafford dealing with a sprained index finger on his throwing hand
The stage is set. Four games. Eight teams. And one burning question: Who advances to the Conference Championships?
I asked 6 AI models to break down each matchup. Here’s what the silicon brains had to say.
Related: Full 2026 NFL Playoff Predictions (Pre-Playoffs)
Game 1: Buffalo Bills (6) at Denver Broncos (1)
Saturday, January 17 | 4:30 PM ET | Empower Field at Mile High
ChatGPT Deep Research (5.2)
Prediction: Bills 27, Broncos 23 | Confidence: ~55%
Deep Research frames this as a “classic strength-on-strength matchup”—Josh Allen and Buffalo’s passing attack against Denver’s elite defense and Sean Payton’s coaching.
Key factors include:
Allen being “arguably the best QB in these playoffs”
Buffalo’s spotty run defense that was “shredded on the ground in a wild-card loss last postseason”
Denver’s home-field advantage (8-1 at home) and altitude effect
Vegas opening Denver as only a 1.5-point home favorite
“In the end, Buffalo’s talent at quarterback wins out in a nail-biter... we’ll trust Josh Allen to deliver a clutch road win.”
Grok 4 Expert
Prediction: Broncos 24, Bills 20 | Confidence: 60%
Grok focuses heavily on Denver’s defensive metrics and Buffalo’s key absences:
Denver’s defense ranked 7th in DVOA, allowing just 18.3 opponent points per game
Bills missing WR Gabe Davis (torn ACL) and S Jordan Poyer (hamstring)
Allen’s turnover-prone play (two INTs in wild-card win)
Home altitude and cold (forecast highs around 25°F)
“Denver’s balanced offense (14.4% DVOA) exploits Buffalo’s 18th-ranked pass defense. Home altitude and cold favor the acclimated Broncos, who force a late turnover to seal it.”
ChatGPT Agent Mode
Prediction: Broncos 24, Bills 20 | Confidence: ~60%
Agent Mode built a statistical model weighting EPA metrics, injuries, and weather:
Buffalo’s offense (28.3 PPG) against Denver’s defense (18.3 PAG) projects to ~23 Bills points
Key variables: Receiver depth after Davis loss, Allen’s health limiting mobility, altitude fatigue in fourth quarter
Denver is rested with nearly full roster returning from bye
“Adjusting for the Bills’ depleted receiving corps and Allen’s injuries, I expect scoring slightly lower. Denver’s rested defense and altitude advantage tilt the outcome.”
GPT-5.2 Pro
Prediction: Broncos 24, Bills 21 | Confidence: 57%
GPT-5.2 Pro’s “38 minutes of reasoning” identified pressure vs. protection as the highest-leverage variable:
Denver’s defense generates sacks at 9.74% rate (elite)
Buffalo’s sack rate allowed: 6.81% (not disastrous, but not clean)
Bills explosive passing options reduced without Davis
Run game chess match: Buffalo EPA/rush +0.08 vs. Denver defensive EPA/rush -0.04
“Home field + rest + pass rush profile + Buffalo’s key absences collectively tip a very even efficiency matchup.”
Claude 4.5 Opus
Prediction: Bills 27, Broncos 20 | Confidence: 65%
Claude Opus dissents from the AI consensus, emphasizing the quarterback gap:
Allen: 73.8 QBR (1st), 8.0 Y/A, 6 TDs/1 INT in last 4 games
Nix: 58.5 QBR (14th), 61.2% completion (27th), 28.9% three-and-out rate
Market signal: Denver is the first #1 seed to be a home underdog in 9 years
“The rushing attack neutralizes the pass rush. James Cook’s 1,621 rushing yards give them a physical identity that can control tempo... Allen is the best player on the field by a wide margin.”
Gemini 3.0 Pro (Deep Research)
Prediction: Broncos 27, Bills 20 | Confidence: High
Gemini’s “forensic examination” hammers the rest advantage and altitude factor:
Since 2010, teams with a bye are 39-13 in playoff games
Broncos historically 72.6% win rate coming off bye
Bills haven’t played above 500 feet elevation since September
Ed Oliver (biceps) likely on “pitch count” if he plays at all
“Josh Allen is capable of superhuman feats, but asking him to beat a top-2 defense, on the road, at altitude, with a depleted supporting cast and his own physical ailments, is a bridge too far.”
Game 2: Houston Texans (5) at New England Patriots (2)
Sunday, January 18 | 3:00 PM ET | Gillette Stadium
ChatGPT Deep Research (5.2)
Prediction: Patriots 20, Texans 16 | Confidence: ~60%
Deep Research highlights the clash of elite young quarterbacks against elite defenses:
Houston’s defense “possibly the best unit in the league” on 10-game win streak
Drake Maye had “historic sophomore season” with MVP buzz
Texans forced turnovers from Allen and Mahomes this season
Over/under at just 41.5 suggests defensive struggle
“In a grind-it-out affair, the Patriots’ experience and home-field advantage give them the edge.”
Grok 4 Expert
Prediction: Patriots 27, Texans 17 | Confidence: 75%
Grok is most bullish on New England, citing:
Patriots’ elite offense (0.13 EPA/play, 3rd in yards)
Pats defense ranked 9th in DVOA, allowing 17.9 points/game
Head-to-head: Patriots won 21-14 in regular season
Cold Foxborough weather (~20°F) hampers Texans’ warm-weather acclimation
“Pats’ playoff experience and balanced scoring (31 pass TDs, 22 rush) grind out a comfortable win.”
ChatGPT Agent Mode
Prediction: Patriots 23, Texans 17 | Confidence: ~57%
Agent Mode identifies Nico Collins’ concussion as the critical variable:
Houston leads the league in defensive EPA/play
But Collins’ absence makes Houston easier to defend on money downs
Patriots have extra day of rest; Texans played Monday night
Texans’ offensive line has both starting tackles questionable with ankle injuries
“Houston’s defense is good enough to spring an upset, especially if Christian Gonzalez cannot play for New England.”
GPT-5.2 Pro
Prediction: Patriots 23, Texans 17 | Confidence: 66%
GPT-5.2 Pro emphasizes the “strength-on-strength” battle:
Patriots EPA/pass +0.29 (best-in-league tier)
Texans defensive EPA/play -0.13, EPA/pass -0.19 (also best-in-league tier)
Texans offense EPA/play -0.02 with negative rush efficiency
Collins’ concussion introduces “real downside risk”
“New England has the more complete profile—elite offense AND a strong defense—while Houston’s offensive efficiency is the weak link.”
Claude 4.5 Opus
Prediction: Patriots 24, Texans 16 | Confidence: 60%
Claude Opus questions Stroud’s readiness after his wild-card stumble:
Stroud had zero fumbles all regular season, then coughed up two against Pittsburgh
Maye’s 77.3 QBR is “historically good for a second-year QB”
Houston is 0-6 all-time in divisional round games
Mike Vrabel “knows exactly how Houston operates”
“Maye outplays Stroud decisively. Houston’s defense keeps them in it until the fourth quarter, but Stroud turns it over at least once in a critical moment.”
Gemini 3.0 Pro (Deep Research)
Prediction: Patriots 24, Texans 13 | Confidence: High
Gemini digs deep into Stroud’s home/road splits:
Home rating: 108.8
Road rating: 81.3
Completion % drops from 70.3% (home) to 60.9% (road)
Maye: 4,844 passing yards (league leader), 35 TDs, 52.1% deep ball completion
“Foxborough in January is the ultimate test of road composure. The cold, the wind, and the hostile crowd noise will exacerbate Stroud’s communication issues at the line of scrimmage.”
Game 3: San Francisco 49ers (6) at Seattle Seahawks (1)
Saturday, January 17 | 8:00 PM ET | Lumen Field
ChatGPT Deep Research (5.2)
Prediction: Seahawks 23, 49ers 17 | Confidence: ~65%
Deep Research frames this as Seattle’s defense vs. a depleted San Francisco roster:
Seattle’s defense finished #1 in DVOA (41.2%)
49ers lost Kittle, likely without Warner, Bosa limited by injury
Seattle won Week 18 meeting 13-3 in dominant fashion
Lumen Field’s noise “gives Seattle a huge advantage”
“The Seahawks’ defense and crowd will create a pivotal mistake, such as a strip-sack or tipped-pass interception, to swing the momentum.”
Grok 4 Expert
Way to go “Grok Expert”… Geno Smith wasn’t even on the Seahawks this year.
Prediction: Seahawks 31, 49ers 24 | Confidence: 70%
Grok points to Seattle’s Week 18 dominance as a preview:
Seattle’s offense (351.4 yards/game) exploits 49ers’ 10th-ranked defense
Without Kittle, 49ers lose their best mismatch creator
Geno Smith: 69.3% completion rate; Seattle’s pass rush generated 51 sacks
“Home noise disrupts Purdy” who saw QB pressure rate rise 15% on road
“Seattle’s incentives (top seed motivation) and feedback loops force two INTs, leading to a shootout win.”
ChatGPT Agent Mode
Prediction: Seahawks 27, 49ers 16 | Confidence: ~75%
Agent Mode delivers the highest confidence pick of the weekend:
Kittle’s Achilles tear “is not just losing a receiver—it hits middle-of-field passing, protection solutions, and run-game blocking”
Seattle’s defense: EPA/play -0.12, EPA/rush -0.15
Week 18: Seattle held SF to 127 total yards (fewest in nine years)
49ers’ offensive line decimated with Kittle gone and Williams limited
“The talent gap, injury disparity and recent head-to-head result favour the Seahawks strongly.”
GPT-5.2 Pro
Prediction: Seahawks 27, 49ers 17 | Confidence: 78%
GPT-5.2 Pro calls this the game where “data + injury situation points in the same direction strongly”:
Seahawks defense: EPA/play -0.12 (elite)
49ers defense: +0.06 EPA/play allowed (poor), +0.12 EPA/pass allowed (poor)
Kittle’s absence “changes SF’s identity”—not just receiving but blocking and protection
“Seattle’s defense is elite by efficiency, SF’s defense is a real liability, and Kittle’s loss removes SF’s best ‘structure’ answers.”
Claude 4.5 Opus
Prediction: Seahawks 27, 49ers 13 | Confidence: 73% (highest confidence pick)
Claude Opus delivers the most emphatic prediction of the weekend:
SF’s pass rush without Bosa: 20 sacks (dead last), 30th pressure rate
Seattle’s -24.2% DVOA is the 12th best defense since 1978
Sam Darnold “will have all day to throw against this front”
Week 18 with healthier 49ers was 13-3; expects similar
“The talent gap is enormous once you account for injuries. San Francisco’s pass rush is historically bad. I expect something similar to Week 18.”
Gemini 3.0 Pro (Deep Research)
Prediction: Seahawks 31, 49ers 13 | Confidence: Very High
Gemini calls Kittle’s loss “a structural collapse” of the Shanahan system:
Kittle “is the skeleton key” of SF’s offense—best run-blocking TE in NFL history
Seattle’s defense: #1 Pass Defense DVOA (-17.1%), #1 Rush Defense DVOA (-30.3%)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 1,793 receiving yards; Kenneth Walker III: 1,027 rushing yards
“San Francisco’s ‘Magic Carpet Ride’ ends here. They expended tremendous emotional energy coming back against Philadelphia; they will have nothing left for the buzzsaw that is Seattle.”
Game 4: Los Angeles Rams (5) at Chicago Bears (2)
Sunday, January 18 | 6:30 PM ET | Soldier Field
ChatGPT Deep Research (5.2)
Prediction: Rams 30, Bears 20 | Confidence: ~60%
Deep Research emphasizes the talent gap despite weather concerns:
Stafford “playing some of the best football of his career”
Rams possess “arguably the best array of weapons of any remaining team”
Chicago’s defense is “solid but not elite”
This game has highest projected total (51.5 points)
“The Bears are a fantastic story and their future is bright, but this matchup feels like a year-too-soon moment for them.”
Grok 4 Expert
Prediction: Rams 28, Bears 24 | Confidence: 55%
Grok sees this as the weekend’s closest contest:
Rams’ explosive offense (394.6 yards/game, #2 DVOA)
Bears’ vulnerable secondary allowed 295 pass yards in wild-card
Stafford’s 304 yards/3 TDs in playoffs signal rebound
Cold Soldier Field (~15°F, possible snow) tests Rams’ dome roots
“Cold weather tests Rams’ dome roots, but McVay’s scheming (0.12 EPA/play) creates mismatches. Bears’ rush pressures Rams’ line, but LA forces a late FG miss for the upset.”
ChatGPT Agent Mode
Prediction: Rams 24, Bears 20 | Confidence: ~65%
Agent Mode weighs the weather impact on both offenses:
Rams offense: 30.5 PPG (#1), 0.477 points per play (#1)
Bears defense: 24.4 PAG (ranked 23rd)
Soldier Field: cold and windy with possible snow and 20 mph gusts
Bears injuries: LB T.J. Edwards (fractured fibula), LT Ozzy Trapilo (torn patella)
“Weather and a road environment could turn this into a grind and keep the Bears within one score.”
GPT-5.2 Pro
Prediction: Rams 24, Bears 20 | Confidence: 61%
GPT-5.2 Pro identifies weather as “the main reason this isn’t a 70%+ Rams call”:
Rams EPA/play +0.12, EPA/pass +0.22 (top tier)
Bears defense EPA/play +0.02, EPA/pass +0.03 (below average)
Rams sack rate allowed: 3.66% (excellent—low negative-play rate)
Chicago’s run game must capitalize on Rams’ EPA/rush -0.04 defense
“Rams have the stronger efficiency profile on both sides... The weather is the main reason this isn’t a 70%+ Rams call.”
Claude 4.5 Opus
Prediction: Rams 24, Bears 21 | Confidence: 55% (lowest confidence pick)
Claude Opus calls this “the most interesting game” due to the Stafford finger + weather interaction:
Stafford’s 4,707 yards and 46 TDs are both NFL-leading
Chicago’s +21 turnover differential looks elite, but underlying metrics are “terrible”
Williams’ 1.2% INT rate is lowest ever for QB with 1,000+ attempts
19°F with 16-30 mph wind gusts is “brutal”
“If Stafford is 90% of himself, the Rams win comfortably. If he’s 70% of himself, struggling with grip and touch, this becomes a coin flip.”
Gemini 3.0 Pro (Deep Research)
Prediction: Bears 23, Rams 20 | Confidence: 65% (UPSET PICK)
Gemini delivers the lone contrarian pick of the divisional round:
Stafford’s sprained index finger + 17°F weather = compromised passing
Stafford is 1-9 in career outdoor games with rain, snow, or extreme cold
Caleb Williams “has played in Chicago elements all winter”
Bears momentum from historic comeback; Soldier Field will be electric
“This is the upset pick of the playoffs. The Rams are the better team on paper, but the environment neutralizes their greatest strength. Stafford’s injury is a silent killer.”
The Mega Synthesis: Where the AIs Agree and Disagree
Unanimous Consensus: Seahawks
All six AI models picked Seattle to defeat San Francisco—and it wasn’t close. The average margin of victory across predictions was 13.3 points.
The models universally cited:
George Kittle’s Achilles tear as a “structural collapse” of the Shanahan system
Seattle’s historically elite defense (#1 DVOA)
The Week 18 beatdown (13-3) as a preview
San Francisco’s inability to generate pressure without Nick Bosa at full strength
This is the weekend’s most lopsided prediction from the AI consensus.
Strong Consensus: Patriots
All six models favor New England, though confidence levels vary from 57% to 75%.
Key agreement points:
Drake Maye’s elite sophomore season outweighs C.J. Stroud’s current form
Stroud’s troubling road splits (108.8 home rating vs. 81.3 road)
Nico Collins’ concussion severely limits Houston’s offensive ceiling
Mike Vrabel’s intimate knowledge of his former team
Split Decision: Bills vs. Broncos
This game produced the clearest philosophical divide:
Broncos: Grok 4, GPT-Agent, 5.2-Pro, Gemini 3.0 Pro
Bills: GPT-DR, Claude 4.5 Opus
The Broncos backers emphasize altitude, rest advantage, and Buffalo’s injuries. The Bills backers counter that Josh Allen is simply too good—and that Vegas making a #1 seed a home underdog “isn’t a call they make lightly.”
The Wild Card: Bears vs. Rams
Five of six models pick the Rams. But Gemini 3.0 Pro stands alone with a Bears upset prediction, arguing:
Stafford’s finger injury becomes debilitating in 17°F weather
Stafford’s 1-9 record in extreme cold/precipitation games
Caleb Williams’ ice-cold composure and playoff experience from the Bears’ historic comeback
This is the only game where a model predicted the home team to win outright against conventional expectations.
The Human Factor: My Predictions
Now for the picks from the carbon-based lifeform in the room.
Bills over Broncos
Why? Josh Allen. I’m rolling with the idea that last year’s MVP makes a deep run this year—on the road if necessary. The Bills beat a very talented Jags team last week in a thriller that could’ve gone either way. The Bills have a better offense than Denver and a very solid defense. As long as Allen isn’t too banged up, I think he does what it takes to get the win at Mile High.
That said, Denver is well-coached (Sean Payton), their defense is #2 in the league, and they’re at home with crowd, atmosphere, and altitude. These teams didn’t play during the regular season, so we don’t know the matchup dynamics. The Broncos appear healthier, and it will be an uphill battle for the Bills.
Josh Allen lost Gabe Davis and is not 100% himself… this favors the Broncos. The matchup difficulty would’ve been high before the injuries… these all favor the Broncos.
But I think Bills pull it off somehow, some way.
Seahawks over 49ers
The Seahawks are rested and the 49ers are banged up badly. Kittle exited last game. San Francisco pulled off the win against Philly with smoke and mirrors—some trick plays (non-QB throwing TDs), coaching, and CMC carrying the load.
I give them an outside chance, but I don’t think their defense can contain a well-rested Seattle team at Seattle. I expect Seattle’s defense to make Purdy pay and Seattle’s run game to be vicious.
Patriots over Texans
Before the playoffs, I had the Pats winning this one. I’m sticking with that but am less convinced than ever. Despite the turnovers from Stroud against Pittsburgh, I thought he looked good passing—a couple mental mistakes, but overall solid.
The Texans’ defense came out ferocious, like a pack of sabertooth tigers that wear you down, beat you up, and by the end of the game, embarrass you.
If they come to play like they usually do, and if the Pats play somewhat mediocre like they did against the Chargers, the Texans can pull it off. But the Texans had Collins go out with a concussion (status unknown). Kirk was catching everything, Schultz can play, but they need Collins back.
I give Houston a longshot here, but I’m still going with Pats. Why? They’re at home, they have a top-3 offense, and they have a MUCH BETTER DEFENSE than Pittsburgh. Makes no logical sense to change my pick. That said, would love to see an upset.
Rams over Bears
Reflexively went Rams and picked them before the playoffs started.
The Rams were lucky to survive against the Panthers last week… Panthers played a helluva game, btw… but so did the Rams. Stafford banged up a bit but all weapons should be available. I think Stafford deserves the 2025 NFL MVP and I think he’ll get it.
Bears won in a game that felt like Deja Vu with the previous Packers matchup.
Some say “defense wins championships”… but that won’t be relevant this game. Neither the Bears nor Rams are good on defense.
I expect a lot of points to be scored, and I expect Stafford to win the gunslinging competition and advance to the conference championship.
Final Tally: Consensus and Contrarian Picks
Full Consensus Picks (All 7 predictors agree)
Seahawks over 49ers ✓
Patriots over Texans ✓
Majority Picks (5-6 predictors)
Rams over Bears (5 AIs + Human vs. 1 AI)
Broncos over Bills (4 AIs vs. 2 AIs + Human)
The Contrarian Positions
Bills: GPT-DR, Claude 4.5 Opus, Me
Bears: Gemini 3.0 Pro
Gemini stands completely alone in predicting a Bears upset.
If Chicago wins on Sunday night in frigid Soldier Field, the deep research model will have bragging rights for this round of the postseason.
Predicted Conference Championship Matchups
If AI Consensus Holds:
AFC Championship: Patriots at Broncos
NFC Championship: Rams at Seahawks
If the Contrarians Are Right:
AFC Championship: Bills at Patriots (AFC East showdown!)
NFC Championship: Bears at Seahawks
The Divisional Round kicks off Saturday at 4:30 PM ET. May the best algorithms—and the best teams—win.