2025 Masters Predictions: AI Picks & Betting Odds (o1-Pro + Deep Research)
I had o1-pro do "deep research" in attempt to predict the winner of the 2025 Masters
Predicting the actual winner of the Master’s Tournament is very difficult… in 2025 there is a field of 95 golfers (a typical number for the Masters, which traditionally has the smallest field of all golf’s major championships).
Golfers in the 2025 Masters include a mix of past Masters champions, recent major winners, top-ranked players, and leading amateurs. Notably, 21 players are making their Masters debuts in 2025.
I don’t watch too much golf because I find it somewhat boring… but I tune in occasionally for majors, especially on the final day. The pre-tournament favorite to win the 2025 Masters was Scottie Scheffler (makes sense… he’s ranked world #1 and won the Masters in 2022 & last year: 2024).
🏌️♂️ 2025 Win Probability Distribution (Pre-Tournament Betting Odds)
Scottie Scheffler +450
Rory McIlroy +650
Collin Morikawa +1400
John Rahm +1400
Bryson DeChambeau +1600
Ludvig Aberg +2000
Justin Thomas +2200
Xander Schauffele +2200
Joaquin Niemann +2800
Phil Mickelson +8000
Normalized “True” Win Probability for 2025 Masters
📊 Cumulative for Top 10:
13.26+9.85+4.96+4.96+4.37+3.56+3.26+3.26+2.59+0.89 = 50.96%
Calculating the top 10’s total Vegas implied % = 68.8%.
We estimated the total field overround = ~135% (standard bookmaker practice).
Top 10 win probability entering the tournament = ~50.96% vs. the rest of the field (other 85 players = ~49.04%).
A relatively “fair bet” (~50/50) is Top 10 vs. The Field… with a slight edge to the Top 10.
How difficult is it to accurately predict the winner?
It ain’t easy.
🎲 Pure Random Guess (Baseline)
Total players in 2025 Masters: 95
Random pick (no knowledge): 1/95 ≈ 1.05%
That’s your floor. Close your eyes and throw a dart in the dark.
📊 Cumulative Probability by Tier
Top 5 players: ~37%
Next 5 players: ~14%
Top 10 Total: ~51%
Remaining 85 Players: ~49%
To recap: If you take the Top 5, you’re working with ~37% combined probability, and if you go with just the favorite (Scheffler), your chance is ~13.3%.
If you pick a player at random, your odds are very low of selecting the winner.
If you pick someone who is in the top 10, you have a better chance.
If you pick the favorite… you have the best chance.
AI Predicts the 2025 Masters Tournament: Top 5 Potential Winners (ChatGPT, o1-pro, Deep Research)
I didn’t attempt to predict a winner for the 2025 Masters because I don’t watch enough golf… no unique human insight.
Before the 2025 Masters began, I had ChatGPT’s o1-pro utilize the deep research feature to see how well it could do.
I gave it specific instructions that did not involve just examining the betting odds… and picking the favorites (although it did take the favorite, logically, as its “winner”); it factored in specific variables (e.g. recent performance & momentum, rank, recent history in majors, etc.) — but I gave the AI leeway here to opt out of factoring in specific variables as well if it thought it may just add noise.
The AI had to predict its Top 5 most likely winners in rank-order — with projected scores. It utilized data published on the internet prior to the 2025 Masters. I also tasked it with providing “betting insights” (only if there were any) without just copying cookie-cutter “betting advice” from random blogs or expert consensus.
Note: Yes it is currently April 12, 2025. The research was completed on April 8, 2025 (1 day before the start of the tournament). I was going to publish this after the tournament and evaluate how well the AI predicted… but am working on other things… so here it is. And yes it made a few errors (predictably) that I had to edit. May have missed a few others too. (Research time: ~11 minutes. 23 sources.)
Related: AI Predicts the 2025 Frozen Four (Looks like o1-pro with DR accurately predicted Western Michigan as the Champion and Boston University as runner-up. WMU won 6-2.)
Introduction
The 2025 Masters Tournament at Augusta National (April 10–13, 2025) features an elite field of the world’s best male golfers.
The goal: Predict the winner (with an estimated 72-hole score and win probability), rank the top five finishers with their probabilities for various outcomes, and identify any betting “alpha” where our odds diverge from Vegas.
Augusta National remains a second-shot golf course that rewards elite approach play, savvy scrambling, and proficient putting (especially lag putting on fast greens).
This year the course has subtle changes – several greens have been rebuilt (holes 1, 8, 15, 16) and many trees were lost to a recent hurricane, slightly opening the course to winds.
A forecast of breezy, dry conditions (Friday could play as a “torture chamber” of wind and firm greens) means controlling iron trajectories and short-game touch will be vital.
In sum, strong ball-striking (particularly strokes-gained approach and tee-to-green) and adaptive creativity on and around Augusta’s greens should separate the contenders from the pretenders.
Top 5 Contenders & Predicted Finishes
Based on the above factors, here are the top five contenders for the 2025 Masters, with their predicted probabilities of finishing in various placement categories. These probabilities reflect both their consistent high performance and any risk factors noted. We also list an expected 72-hole score for each player (relative to par) under the anticipated conditions:
(Probabilities are approximate. “Projected Score” is the expected total score if the player plays to our prediction; range given for non-winner scenarios.)
Below we break down each of these five contenders, ranked #1 through #5, with detailed rationale:
1. Scottie Scheffler – Top Pick (Winner Prediction)
Confidence Level: High.
Rationale: As the defending champion, world #1, and two-time Masters winner, Scheffler deserves favorite status. We assign him ~18% win probability, notably higher than a typical favorite’s odds, reflecting a strong analytical conviction.
Course Fit & Augusta History: Scheffler’s affinity for Augusta is well-documented – he has “run away from the field in two of the last three years” at the Masters. He already owns two green jackets (2022 and 2024) and hasn’t finished worse than T10 in any Masters since 2020. His composed temperament and strategic game plan suit Augusta’s pressure and complexity. Few in the field can match his combination of power off the tee and deft touch on and around these greens. His “dazzling record here” includes a win by three shots last year; he’s clearly comfortable navigating Amen Corner and the slick putting surfaces.
Recent Form & Momentum: While Scheffler hasn’t won yet in 2025, he’s trending sharply upward. In his final tune-up start he finished T-2 in Houston, where importantly he also solved his recent putting woes. In fact, Houston saw him log the second-best putting performance of his career, an encouraging sign given putting had been his only weakness. Even at slightly below his 2024 peak, his results have been solid (several top-10s and contending finishes in early 2025). Any lingering injury concerns have abated – after a minor mid-season injury, Scheffler appears to be “building into form” nicely ahead of Augusta.
Key Stats: Scheffler’s ball-striking numbers are elite. In his dominant 2024 season he led the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach by a wide margin (0.5 strokes better than the next best) and was 2nd in SG: Off-the-Tee, making him an automatic tee-to-green leader. This year he’s been a bit less superhuman tee-to-green (averaging +6.7 strokes T2G per event vs. +11 in last year’s peak stretch), but that’s still world-class. He remains top-10 in the major ball-striking stats in 2025. The big difference is putting – when average or better with the flat stick, Scheffler is nearly unbeatable. Encouragingly, he has improved to rank inside the top 50 in SG: Putting entering Masters week after that “turnaround week on the greens at Memorial Park” in Houston. If he putts even reasonably well at Augusta, his tee-to-green superiority (he’s gained ~6–7 strokes per event in 2025) should put him in position to win.
Intangibles: Scheffler’s calm demeanor and patience shine in majors. He won’t panic if conditions get tough (e.g. wind on Friday) – in fact he often separates himself on difficult scoring days. His post-victory Champions Dinner menu might be already secretly planned; motivation is high to become one of the few to win back-to-back Masters (and three green jackets in four years, putting him on a Nicklaus/Tiger-like trajectory at Augusta). There are essentially no red flags in his profile: experience, course knowledge, ball-striking, mental game, all top-notch. The only slight question entering the week was putting consistency, and he appears to have addressed that just in time. Our projected winning total for Scheffler is about 276 (-12), given moderate conditions – a score he’s very capable of achieving or bettering based on recent history. Overall, Scheffler is our pick to win, with an estimated 18% chance to don the green jacket again. His high probability to finish top 5 or top 10 (roughly 45% and 70% respectively) reflects just how consistently he performs at Augusta.
2. Rory McIlroy
Confidence Level: High
Rationale: McIlroy enters the Masters with perhaps the most well-rounded game of his career and a burning motivation to finally complete the career Grand Slam. Many observers feel “this year feels different” for Rory. He has already notched three worldwide wins in his last seven starts, including two PGA Tour “signature” events (at Pebble Beach and THE PLAYERS Championship) on courses that don’t typically favor bombers. That signals his adaptability – he won at Sawgrass even when his driver misbehaved (he was bottom-10 in accuracy) by leaning on superb iron play, gaining 7.8 strokes on approach (the best of his career since 2019). Augusta is the one major that has eluded McIlroy, but he’s had many close calls here (six top-10 finishes). His course knowledge is extensive, though the pressure of the Grand Slam quest has often loomed large on him come Masters weekend.
Form & Stats: Rory has been arguably the best player of 2025 so far. Aside from his wins, he’s contended frequently and is near the top of the FedExCup and world ranking points lists. Statistically, he’s firing on almost all cylinders: he ranks 4th in Scrambling and 12th in SG: Putting on Tour this season, a short-game improvement that addresses weaknesses that have hurt him in past Masters. Off the tee, he’s still one of the longest drivers in the game, and after some accuracy issues early in the year, he “remedied” those by the time he played Houston. There was a slight concern about a right elbow tweak (which he casually mentioned during the Houston event), but it did not seem to hinder him significantly – he managed a solid finish and full swings without visible discomfort. On approach, McIlroy’s stats have been a bit puzzling: he’s #1 in SG: Approach for 2025 among Masters entrants, yet only 87th in proximity to the hole. This suggests he’s hitting a lot of greens (and gaining strokes by finding putting surfaces where others miss), albeit not always sticking it very close. At Augusta, hitting greens in regulation is half the battle; the onus will be on Rory to convert more makeable birdie putts when he does give himself chances.
Augusta Outlook: McIlroy’s last trip to Augusta (2024) was a disappointment (missed cut) which he attributed to pressure and poor play, but he bounced back with a renewed focus. This time, given his confidence from recent victories, he seems better equipped mentally to handle the “mounting pressure of his major drought and Grand Slam pursuit.” If he can navigate the first round or two without too much stress (historically, he’s struggled with slow starts here), his chances skyrocket heading into the weekend. We project Rory to post a total around –10 to –12 if he plays to his recent form, which could certainly win or come very close. We give him roughly a 15% chance to win – not far behind Scheffler – and strong odds (~40%) to be in the top 5 come Sunday. His combination of elite driving, improved putting, and wealth of experience at Augusta make him a top contender, and sentimentally many are rooting for him to finally slip on the green jacket.
3. Collin Morikawa
Confidence Level: High
Rationale: Morikawa has quietly become a Masters stalwart and arrives as perhaps the hottest statistical golfer on the planet. He has logged 3 straight top-10 finishes at Augusta (T-3 in 2024, following T-5 and T-10 in previous years), showing remarkable consistency on this course. Few players are as well-suited to Augusta’s second-shot demands: Collin is the PGA Tour leader in Strokes Gained: Approach this season, once again showcasing the iron precision that netted him two majors by age 24. In 2025, he’s gained strokes with his irons in every start, including eye-popping totals of +8.1 at THE PLAYERS and +4.8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He also tops the Tour in proximity to the hole, meaning he’s giving himself plenty of birdie looks – a huge advantage at Augusta’s greens where being on the right tier can make the difference between a makeable putt and a defensive lag.
Form & Results: Morikawa has played a limited schedule so far this year, but when he’s teed it up, the results have been excellent. He has two solo runner-up finishes and a top 10 at THE PLAYERS among his handful of starts. He’s done this exclusively in strong fields (no weak-field padding of his stats), indicating his game rises to the level of elite competition. According to Data Golf’s performance index, he’s arguably the “hottest player” entering the Masters. The only thing missing? A win – and the narrative that Morikawa “can’t close” has grown with each close call. However, he’s proven he can win majors when in contention (2020 PGA, 2021 Open Championship), so it’s more a matter of timing than any flaw in his ability.
Key Stats: Beyond his approach play, Collin’s other metrics are solid if not spectacular. His off-the-tee game is not about power but precision – and with fewer trees this year, any accuracy shortcomings are slightly mitigated. Around the greens he’s serviceable, which is fine given how often he hits greens. The putter is Morikawa’s barometer: it “still comes and goes,” as he can have cold weeks, but when he even putts field-average (gains a stroke or two), his ball-striking usually guarantees a high finish. Encouragingly, he’s had multiple events this season gaining a few strokes putting, leading to those runner-ups. At Augusta, he’s shown he can handle the tricky greens – evidenced by an impressive 11 under par final-round 67 in 2022 to finish 5th, and generally steady putting in his top-10 Masters finishes.
Augusta Narrative: Morikawa is also chasing a piece of history: a win here would mean he has 3 legs of the career Grand Slam at just 28, leaving only the U.S. Open. That provides extra motivation. His calm, methodical approach suits the Masters pressure cooker well. We expect Morikawa to be in contention again – he’s a near lock for a top 10 finish (≈60% probability) given his consistency, and about a 10% chance to win. If his putter gets hot for four days, watch out – he absolutely can don the green jacket. We project a score around –8 to –10 for Collin, which would put him in the mix; if conditions get tough and scores are higher, even a -8 could be enough. Given his extremely high floor (“one of the highest floors in the field” as analysts note), Morikawa is also a very safe bet for top-5/10 pools this week.
4. Justin Thomas
Confidence Level: High
Rationale: Don’t let the last two Masters missed cuts fool you – Justin Thomas is resurging at the right time and might be the field’s biggest wild card. Described as “maybe the most interesting man in the field,” JT has been wildly unpredictable of late – capable of brilliance and calamity in equal measure – but the pieces seem to be coming together. He has three top-10 finishes in his last four starts, indicating a return to form after a prolonged slump in 2023. Stat models even rank him #1 among PGA Tour players in overall performance recently. Thomas’s iron play is back to its elite level – he’s top 10 in SG: Approach this season, and we’ve seen flashes of the vintage JT magic, such as leading the field in approach at the Genesis Invitational and nearly so at Phoenix earlier in the year. The catch is consistency: JT has struggled to put together four good rounds. For example, at THE PLAYERS he infamously followed a first-round 78 with a scintillating 62. This feast-or-famine tendency has characterized his season: one day his irons are “dead last” in the field, the next day they’re best in the field; one tournament he gains strokes off the tee, the next he loses – an every-other-event pattern.
Why We’re Optimistic: There are strong signs that “something is brewing” with JT. Crucially, his putter has caught fire lately – a club that has long been his Achilles’ heel. He ranked top 10 in SG: Putting in each of his last two starts, gaining +4.7 strokes on the greens at THE PLAYERS and +6.8 at Valspar. When Thomas putts well, he usually contends or wins (both his major wins featured positive putting weeks). Additionally, he’s shown high-end form in every part of his game at least once this season – driving, irons, short game, putting – just not all at the same time. If he can eliminate the one “blow-up round” and have a solid opening round (his Thursdays have sometimes put him behind the 8-ball), he has as much upside as anyone in this field. Remember, Thomas is a 15-time PGA Tour winner and two-time major champion; at age 31 he’s in his prime and won’t be short on motivation to reclaim his place among golf’s elite.
Masters History: Augusta hasn’t been as kind to JT as one might expect for such a talented player. He has just one top-10 (4th in 2020) in seven attempts. Notably, he missed the cut here in 2023 and 2024 during his slump. However, prior to those, he had a string of made cuts and a few solid showings (top-20 finishes). The difference now is he comes in “far better form” than the last two years. His creative shot-making and excellent wedge game are assets at Augusta – he’s often excelled on the par-5s here, and if the course plays firm, his high ball flight helps him attack flags. One intangible positive: JT is good friends with Tiger Woods and often picks Tiger’s brain about course management here; with Tiger not competing this year (due to injury), Thomas may feel an extra drive to represent that mentorship well.
Prediction: JT is a high-variance pick – his probability to win (around 8%) or contend (30% top-5 chance) is higher than many perceive, but there’s also a real risk he could finish outside the top 20 if the inconsistency bites again. Our bet is that he will contend: expect at least one “extremely low round” during the week from him. If he can avoid an equally disastrous round, a score of –7 to –9 is achievable, which could land him in the top 5. Thomas himself has expressed that one decent opening round is the key – “contending could just be a matter of eliminating the bad one.” With renewed confidence and a hot putter, JT is our bold pick to surprise people – don’t be shocked if he’s on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday.
5. Jon Rahm
Confidence Level: Medium-High
Rationale: Rahm is the enigma of this Masters. The 2023 Masters champion and a generational talent, he certainly has the skill and Augusta pedigree to win another. However, 2025 finds Rahm in a different context – he’s now playing on the LIV Golf circuit, meaning fewer high-pressure PGA Tour reps and questions about how his form there translates to majors. On paper, Rahm’s recent results are solid: he’s on a streak of top-10 finishes in LIV events. But as one analyst noted, it’s hard to “quantify those results” because the LIV fields and format differ. A year ago, Rahm came into Augusta under similar circumstances (multiple LIV top-10s) and underperformed, finishing T-45. This inconsistency – dominant on LIV, but middling when back in majors – introduces uncertainty. That said, Rahm remains “one of the two or three most talented players of this era.” We can’t discount his immense ability: he won the U.S. Open in 2021 and was world #1 as recently as 2022. If anyone can flip a switch and contend despite limited recent PGA Tour action, it’s Rahm.
Course History: In seven Masters starts, Rahm has an impressive five top-10s, including the win in 2023 and top-5 finishes in 2018 and 2022. Augusta suits his game: he’s a high-ball hitter (useful for holding greens), an excellent driver of the ball, and his short game is underrated (he’s terrific out of tight lies, which Augusta demands). Last year’s hiccup (T-45 in 2024) aside, Rahm generally figures Augusta out quite well. Importantly, he knows how to win here, which is a big psychological edge.
Recent Form & Stats: In LIV Golf this season, Rahm has finishes of 9th, 5th, 6th, 6th, and 2nd. Consistently good, if not great. He ranks high in greens-in-regulation on LIV (3rd) and has been in contention most weeks. But as observers have pointed out, “so far, there has been very little correlation between LIV form and success in the majors.” Examples: other LIV stars like Joaquin Niemann and Talor Gooch racked up wins on that tour but struggled in majors, whereas Bryson DeChambeau had mediocre LIV results yet excelled in 2023’s U.S. Open and other majors. This makes Rahm a bit of a wildcard. If we look at his long-term skillset, Rahm’s strengths are driving (historically top-5 in SG: Off-the-Tee) and a great all-around game with no weaknesses. One concern might be competitive rust against elite fields – he hasn’t faced a field of this quality since last year’s majors. In terms of stats we can measure, one encouraging sign is that Rahm has been putting and chipping well (short-game tends to be a separator at Augusta and he has one of the best par-5 scoring records here). On the flip side, any lack of sharpness in approach play could hurt him; if he’s not dialed in, he could find himself scrambling more than he’d like.
Prediction: We give Rahm about a 7% chance to win – slightly lower than his “true talent” might warrant, reflecting those uncertainties about form and competition level. He’s still Jon Rahm, so we think he’ll find a way into the mix, at least to a degree; a top-10 finish is roughly a 45% proposition for him in our model, lower than his historical Masters hit rate. We’re tempering expectations but not ruling him out. A –6 to –8 total seems a reasonable guess for Rahm’s tournament – good, but perhaps not quite enough unless others falter. It wouldn’t surprise us if he contends, but we view him as a half-step behind the other names above given the question marks. In summary, Rahm is a high-ceiling, uncertain-floor contender this week. As one preview concluded, “there’s no question he is capable of winning another green jacket” – it’s just harder to have a strong conviction about it this time.
Betting Value & “Alpha” Insights
When comparing our analytical probabilities to the implied odds in betting markets, we find a few notable discrepancies – potential opportunities where a savvy bettor might find value (or avoid a trap).
Justin Thomas – Undervalued: Many sportsbooks had JT around ~20-to-1 (+2000) to win, implying roughly a 5% chance. Our analysis gives him closer to an 8% win probability, with even higher upside for a top-5. The data on his ball-striking revival and putting streak suggests he’s a stronger threat than the odds imply. This is a classic case of the market being slow to adjust to a resurging star – providing a possible “alpha” play for those willing to bank on his positive regression. Backing Thomas for a win or each-way (top-5) could yield value given our projections, as we expect his true chances are higher than the betting line indicates.
Collin Morikawa – Rock-Solid Contender: Morikawa’s odds were roughly in the mid-teens (around 15/1, ~6–7% implied). We’ve pegged his win chances at ~10% and consider him extremely likely to finish top-10 (≈60%). In pools or fantasy formats, he’s gold. In betting terms, a top-10 or top-5 wager on Morikawa might be a smart play – his consistency at Augusta and current form make the risk of him underperforming relatively low. The betting public sometimes overlooks him in favor of flashier names, so there’s a slight edge in trusting the stats here.
Jon Rahm – Caution on Short Odds: Rahm’s name recognition and past green jacket mean his odds haven’t drifted as much as his situation might warrant. If he’s, say, 10/1 (10% implied) in some markets, our model’s ~7% win outlook would urge caution. In other words, be wary of a market inefficiency in the opposite direction – Rahm might be overpriced by bettors not accounting for the LIV-to-Masters uncertainty. Unless you have inside confidence that Rahm will flip the switch, the value might lie in fading him at those odds (for instance, choosing other players in matchup bets or avoiding him in DFS lineups).
Shane Lowry – Dark Horse Value: Outside our top five, one name that stands out for value is Shane Lowry. His outright odds are longer (perhaps on the order of 30–40/1), but our analysis shows a scenario where he contends strongly. Lowry has been excellent in 2025, with multiple close calls (2nd at Pebble, 7th at API). He led the Tour in SG: Approach in March and even fixed his driver issues – going from testing multiple drivers to leading the field in SG: Off-the-Tee at Valspar (+4.9). If the improved driving holds (and it’s a big “if”), his tee-to-green game is formidable enough to carry him into the top 10 regardless of an up-and-down putter. We’d rate Lowry’s true chances to win at maybe ~5%, which is modest but higher than implied by his long odds (2–3%). Moreover, his top-10 probability (perhaps ~30%) is significantly higher than public expectations. This suggests an “alpha” opportunity: consider Lowry in top-10 markets or as a high-reward each-way pick. The analytical case is that he’s closer to the elite than people think – with a T-3 at Augusta in 2022 on his resume, he’s proven he can thrive here.
By comparing implied odds to our probabilistic model, we’ve identified a few edges: backing players like Morikawa or Thomas (or a sleeper like Lowry) who are analytically under-appreciated, and being cautious about overhyped favorites where our data flags concerns (e.g., Rahm’s situation).
Of course, golf remains unpredictable – that’s part of the thrill of the Masters. Our confident pick is Scottie Scheffler to win (with ~18% probability and a predicted score of -12) given his stellar fit and form.
But the beauty of Augusta is that anything can happen under the Georgia pines.
We’ve stacked the odds in our favor with deep research and reasoning – now we’ll see if the roars of the back nine on Sunday validate our analysis.
Enjoy the Masters!