AI (o1-Pro) Predicts the Frozen Four (2025): Men's NCAA D1 Ice Hockey (2025): Western Michigan, Denver, Boston University, Penn State
o1-pro with deep research attempts to accurately predict the 2025 Frozen Four winners in Men's NCAA D1 college hockey
I should note that I rarely watch college hockey… not sure if games are rarely on TV or if it’s just not that entertaining or what. Occasionally I’ll tune in during the 16-team tournament (usually finishes in April each year).
A couple years ago I remember tuning in for a Quinnipiac win 3-2 against Minnesota in a crazy OT thriller (April 8, 2023)… last year I don’t think I watched, but Denver beat Boston College 2-0 (April 13, 2024).
A week or so ago (~March 30, 2025) — I watched parts of some “Elite Eight” games: Penn State vs. UConn and Denver vs. Boston College games… the former was an OT win for PSU and the latter was a rematch of last year’s championship — Denver got the W (and won last year’s title).
Regional Final Results (Mar 30, 2025)
#12 Penn State defeated #5 UConn 3–2 in OT (Allentown)
#3 Denver defeated #2 Boston College 3–1 (Manchester)
#1 Boston University defeated #4 Cornell 3–2 (Toledo)
#7 Western Michigan defeated #6 Minnesota State 2–1 in double OT (Fargo)
So this year we have a 12-seed, 3-seed, 1-seed, and 7-seed in the “Frozen Four.”
The 2025 NCAA Division 1 Men’s Ice Hockey Tournament began on March 27, 2025 — with regional semifinals on March 27 and March 28… Regional finals took place on March 29 and 30th (this is what I watched).
One team has (from my cursory research) kicked ass over the past ~5-8 years and that’s Denver. They won championships in 2017, 2022, and 2024 (last season) and have the most titles in NCAA Men’s Ice Hockey history.
Other teams that are typically solid are Minnesota Duluth, Boston College, Boston University, etc.
Hockey in general is a highly unpredictable sport and one of the worst sports to “bet on” because there’s a lot of luck involved in the outcome… this isn’t to say players aren’t skilled.
It’s just that luck has an outsized impact on game outcomes due to the game structure and relatively similar levels of talent among top teams.
In hockey you could “dominate” the other team in terms of puck possession or shots on goal, but if the other team has a hot goalie and draws some timely penalties, they may win despite the fact that you outplayed them.
This doesn’t happen in basketball. If you outplay another team in basketball it’s usually a trouncing (e.g. double-digit victory).
Additionally, in basketball you can keep your best guys in the game for most of the time… in hockey teams “rotate” shifts between 3-4 lines of players — so best guys aren’t always on the ice.
At the college level some teams probably have much higher level talent than others… so recruiting matters to some extent, but when you get even to the Final 8/4 teams… you see a lot of close games.
We see very few “blow out” shellackings in hockey… unless a team draws a lot of penalties and/or faces a weak goalie or the other team has a massive “off day.”
Predictably, the recent Elite Eight games had one OT win, another double OT win, and all games were decided by 1 goal (the other decided by 2)…. zero crushing defeats… and 3 “upsets” if you’re going by seeding.
If you want to know why certain sports like hockey have more “luck” as a factor in outcomes, I suggest reading the “Skill-Luck Continuum.” It’ll help you mentally conceptualize this stuff so you won’t be so surprised.
Anyways, since I know jack shit about the teams in this tournament… I’m going to just guess randomly and pick the team that’s been on fire in recent years: Denver to win the 2025 championship. (I know nothing… I figure my odds are at least 25% though.)
I have a lot of “deep research” credits remaining so I leveraged o1-pro to scour the internet for whatever data it needed to make its best possible prediction(s) in the Frozen Four — and the Final it thinks will happen (picking the ultimate winner.)
o1-pro DR pick: Western Michigan
My pick: Denver
Watch us both be wrong. (After reading through this report it seems like BU has a strong shot)
At least I predicted the Florida vs. Houston 2025 Men’s Basketball Championship game correctly (it was luck though — Houston could’ve won it)… AI o1-pro predicted Houston and I faded the AI and took my eye test pick Florida. Was a very good game and could’ve gone either way.
Not sure what happened to Houston on that final possession. Looked like the player thought he’d draw a foul in his pump/jump fake from 3… never got one, realized it would be a double dribble/travel upon landing and dropped the ball — sealing the deal for Florida.
Houston looked intense with intense pressure defense and was firing on all cylinders (hitting 3s like it ain’t no thang) in the first half… their defense was elite almost the entire game.
Their downfall? A few prolonged stretches of no buckets. I was like damn you guys can’t hit shots. They kept going for FGs… probably should’ve stuck with their bread-and-butter 3s (deep ball was working early on).
Houston clearly won the first half (even beyond the scoreline… just looked better). Florida had many possessions where their bigs were deep in the paint, practically kissing the rim — and had zero “soft touch” (laying enough bricks for a few construction zones).
But Florida did just enough to get the win. There was some controversy about “foul” calls favoring Florida in the second half… As a neutral fan I didn’t see many bad calls (or lack of foul calls that had me angry). Officiating was fine.
Good game. Sucks someone has to lose. Cool that someone gets to win.
Anyways… below is the AI’s analysis of the “Frozen Four” hockey.
Note: DeepResearch commonly makes errors. I had to correct it several times for the NCAA Basketball analyses. Surprisingly it nailed this hockey analysis (at least I think). I cross-referenced with Grok 3 (usually catches mistakes)… so should be good.
Frozen Four 2025: Team Analyses
Skip this section if you want to read more about the matchups. If you want a general understanding of each team? Read it.
Western Michigan Broncos
Western Michigan enters its first-ever Frozen Four riding an eight-game winning streak and boasting a program-record 32 victories this season. The Broncos captured the NCHC regular-season title and then won the Fargo Regional with back-to-back 2–1 victories—one in double overtime against Minnesota State, and a comeback win over UMass.
Offensively, Western Michigan leads the nation with an explosive 4.1 goals per game. Sophomore forward Alex Bump, a Philadelphia Flyers draft pick and NCHC Forward of the Year, paces the team with 47 points. The offense is deep and balanced, with five other players netting 11 or more goals, including graduate captain Tim Washe (16 goals) and senior sniper Liam Valente (14 goals), both of whom delivered clutch performances in the regional. The Broncos roll four lines with confidence, thriving on unpredictability and team-wide contributions. Their 25.9% power play ranks among the top 10 nationally.
Defensively, the Broncos allow just 2.1 goals per game—tied for sixth in the nation—and have held opponents to two or fewer goals in 24 of 36 games heading into the Frozen Four. A mobile and poised blue line is led by freshman standout Joona Väisänen, who excels in both puck movement and defensive coverage. Their penalty kill is elite, operating at nearly 87% efficiency, also top-10 in the country.
In goal, Western Michigan has used a strong two-goalie tandem: graduate Cameron Rowe and freshman Hampton Slukynsky. Slukynsky, the younger brother of teammate Grant, has taken the reins in recent weeks and performed exceptionally. Both goaltenders have posted approximately .920 save percentages and 2.00 goals-against averages. Combined with a veteran lineup and aggressive, physical play, the Broncos dominate possession, outshooting opponents 35–26 on average.
Since January, Western Michigan has gone 17–3 and carries tremendous momentum into the tournament. Head coach Pat Ferschweiler, making his Frozen Four debut, has built a fearless, confident squad with the mindset that “nobody here is putting a cap on what we can do.” While this is their first Frozen Four, the Broncos have proven their mettle with overtime heroics and comeback wins, showcasing composure and resilience. Statistically, they may be the most complete team in the field—No. 1 offense, top-10 in defense, power play, and penalty kill.
Playing in St. Louis, a Midwestern venue, may provide a slight edge due to fan proximity and enthusiasm. With scoring depth, elite special teams, strong goaltending, and championship momentum, the Western Michigan Broncos arrive as a legitimate title threat.
Denver Pioneers
The defending national champions return to the Frozen Four for a second straight year and a record-setting fourth time under 35-year-old head coach David Carle. Denver, a storied program with nine NCAA titles, brings a wealth of championship experience and resilience. With a 31–11–1 record, the Pioneers had a season marked by early dominance, a mid-season dip, and a strong finish, going 13-5-1 in their final 19 games. They emerged from a challenging NCHC quarterfinal and stormed through the Manchester Regional with a 5–1 rout of Providence and a 3–1 upset over top-seeded Boston College—highlighting their battle-tested path and big-game readiness.
Offensively, Denver is loaded with elite talent and NHL-caliber firepower, ranking second nationally at 4.0 goals per game. Senior captain Jack Devine and junior Aidan Thompson lead the way as a lethal duo; both were All-NCHC selections and finished #1 and #2 in the nation in points, with Devine posting 57 and Thompson (a Blackhawks prospect) contributing 54. The forward group is deep, featuring senior goal-scorers Carter King (21) and Sam Harris (20), along with strong secondary producers like Massimo Rizzo and Tyler Haskins. In total, Denver boasts seven players with double-digit goals.
On the blue line, NCHC Player of the Year Zeev Buium fuels the offense with 48 points—most by any defenseman in the nation. He quarterbacks the power play and leads breakouts, supported by sophomores Eric Pohlkamp and Boston Buckberger. The defense activates aggressively in transition, driving a lethal 29% power play that ranks second nationally, powered by fluid puck movement and precise one-timers.
Defensively, the Pioneers are just as sound. They allow only 2.1 goals per game (tied for sixth in the NCAA) and surrender the fewest shots per game among Frozen Four teams (~25.8). Their puck possession game and structural discipline shine in their own zone. Pohlkamp anchors the defense with a two-way presence, leading the team in blocked shots and chipping in timely offense. In goal, senior Matt Davis has been a rock with a 23-5-3 record, a 2.09 goals-against average, and a .920 save percentage—providing calm, clutch goaltending.
The one area of relative concern is Denver’s penalty kill, which operates around 82% and falls just outside the national top 15. They've shown occasional vulnerability when down a man, a potential issue against strong power-play units. Still, the Pioneers' style is built on fast, transition hockey, elite forechecking, and the ability to dictate pace while defending with structure. They’ve proven capable of locking down tight games or lighting up the scoreboard in shootouts—like their dominant 15–5 scoring margin over rival Colorado College in playoff action.
Experience is Denver’s X-factor. Many on this roster hoisted the trophy last year and are no strangers to the Frozen Four spotlight. Carle, seeking his third national championship in four seasons, has guided the team with composure and strategic discipline. The Pioneers believe their “bumpy” stretches toughened them for this moment, and their pedigree shows. Though they may not have the largest fan contingent in St. Louis, their success at neutral sites gives them confidence. With elite scorers, a structured system, and unmatched championship experience, Denver enters the Frozen Four as one of the most dangerous and complete teams in the field.
Boston University Terriers
Boston University returns to the Frozen Four for the 25th time in program history, aiming for its first national championship since 2009. The Terriers (27–11–0) secured their spot with an 8–3 blowout of Ohio State followed by a gritty 3–2 overtime win against Cornell. This run showcased both their explosive offense and ability to battle through adversity. Under second-year head coach Jay Pandolfo, a BU alum and Stanley Cup winner, the Terriers are playing aggressive, attacking hockey backed by elite talent and NHL-caliber prospects.
Offensively, BU is dangerous. Averaging 3.8 goals per game, the team blends veteran presence with emerging stars. Junior Quinn Hutson leads the team with 50 points (23 goals, 27 assists), including the overtime winner that clinched their Frozen Four berth. His younger brother, freshman defenseman Cole Hutson, has racked up 46 points and quarterbacks the power play with remarkable poise. Fellow freshman Cole Eiserman, a projected top-5 NHL draft pick, adds a lethal scoring touch with 23 goals. The top power-play unit, featuring Hutson and Eiserman, is one of the most feared in the nation, converting at a 28.4% rate.
Veteran leadership balances the youth movement. Centers Ryan Greene (37 points, Blackhawks prospect) and Jack Hughes (23 points, Kings prospect) anchor the forward lines, while sophomore Shane Lachance (11 goals, 18 assists, Oilers prospect) brings physicality and a net-front presence. Graduate transfer Matt Copponi and senior winger Dylan Peterson round out a deep offensive unit. BU boasts at least six NHL-drafted players, and it shows in their quick puck movement, transition play, and finishing ability.
Defensively, BU has struggled at times. They allow 2.95 goals per game and are one of the few Frozen Four teams to be outshot on average (30 shots for, 30.6 against). Goaltending has been serviceable but not dominant, with a .904 team save percentage. Sophomore Mathieu Caron, likely to start, was strong in the regionals—making 40 saves against Cornell—but consistency has been an issue for both him and junior Vinny Duplessis.
The penalty kill sits at 78.5%, the lowest among the Frozen Four field. The Terriers have been vulnerable when down a man, a weakness opponents have exploited in key games. Still, there is defensive talent. Sophomore Tom Willander (Canucks first-round pick) and senior Case McCarthy provide size and mobility, while Cole Hutson drives offense from the back end. Despite the skill, lapses in defensive coverage remain a concern—Cornell’s late rally in the regional final nearly derailed BU’s run.
Style-wise, the Terriers thrive in an up-tempo, offense-first system. They push the pace, create in transition, and aren’t afraid to trade chances. This high-risk, high-reward style has resulted in some goal-fests—dominant wins, but also tough losses when the defense couldn’t hold. The team is playing with confidence, having won the Hockey East title and six of their last seven games.
Pandolfo brings valuable experience from last year’s Frozen Four appearance, and the returning core of Greene, Hutson, and Peterson adds leadership and hunger. Though the trip to St. Louis may limit their fan presence compared to Midwestern programs, BU’s pedigree ensures strong support.
In short, Boston University’s path to a national title depends on leveraging its offensive firepower while tightening its defensive game. If the stars shine and the defensive structure holds, the Terriers have all the tools to go the distance. But if breakdowns and penalty kill issues emerge, they’ll face an uphill battle against the nation’s elite.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State enters the Frozen Four as this year’s Cinderella story—making their first-ever appearance on college hockey’s biggest stage. The Nittany Lions (22–13–4) shocked third-overall seed Maine with a dominant 5–1 win before clinching their spot in dramatic fashion with a 3–2 overtime victory against UConn in the Allentown Regional final. Forward Matt DiMarsico sealed the historic moment with the OT winner, sending Penn State to new heights in just over a decade since the program joined Division I.
Under head coach Guy Gadowsky, Penn State is known for its relentless, offense-first style of play. This season, the team averaged 3.5 goals per game and over 33 shots per night—living up to their shoot-heavy reputation. Sophomore Aiden Fink, a Hobey Baker top-10 finalist, leads the charge with 53 points (23 goals, 30 assists), topping the Big Ten in scoring. A seventh-round NHL pick of Nashville, Fink has emerged as one of the top playmakers in college hockey.
Supporting him is freshman standout Charlie Cerrato (42 points), who assisted on the overtime winner in the regional final. Additional firepower comes from freshman JJ Wiebusch (33 points), senior Danny Dzhaniyev (31), and sophomore Reese Laubach (30), giving PSU two dangerous scoring lines. Their power play, converting at roughly 24%, punished both Maine and UConn in clutch moments, adding another layer to their offensive arsenal.
Defensively, Penn State has been the most vulnerable of the Frozen Four teams, allowing about 3.0 goals per game. Their aggressive style occasionally leads to run-and-gun battles, but they tightened up significantly in the NCAA tournament, limiting Maine to one goal and UConn to two across 60+ minutes. A major reason for this surge is goaltender Arsenii Sergeev, a Calgary Flames draft pick. Sergeev, a 6'3" netminder with sharp reflexes, stopped 42 shots in the regional final and has elevated his game in the postseason. His season numbers (~2.80 GAA, .910 SV%) have trended upward at the perfect time.
On defense, the Nittany Lions don’t feature star names but rely on a committee approach, with senior Simon Mack contributing 29 points from the blue line. While defensive coverage remains a concern, the unit has shown growth under pressure. A unique strength is Penn State’s penalty kill—though not elite in percentage (79%), it’s dangerous offensively, leading all Frozen Four teams with eight shorthanded goals this season.
Stylistically, Penn State plays fast, tenacious hockey. They press hard on the forecheck, shoot often, and look to create rebounds and turnovers. Their attack overwhelmed Maine, and their willingness to battle through adversity fueled the overtime win over UConn. The team is red-hot and embracing its underdog identity, riding momentum and belief.
Coach Gadowsky has described this run as “a little more special” given the emotion and community behind it. While no player on the roster has Frozen Four experience, that inexperience may play to their advantage—they’re loose, motivated, and playing with house money. Penn State’s massive alumni base could help fill the Enterprise Center with blue and white, giving them unexpected support despite the long trip to St. Louis. And as a Big Ten program used to NHL-sized arenas and big crowds, the moment shouldn’t overwhelm them.
In the end, Penn State’s hopes rest on continued offensive brilliance from their young stars and lights-out goaltending from Sergeev. If they can maintain their scoring pace while staying more disciplined defensively, this first-time Frozen Four participant has the tools to keep the dream alive—and possibly shock the college hockey world.
Frozen Four Semifinal Predictions (2025): ChatGPT o1-Pro + Deep Research
Here are o1-pro’s predictions after doing “deep research” for the Men’s Ice Hockey 2025 NCAA D1 “Frozen Four.”
Denver vs. Western Michigan (Semifinal 1)
This all-NCHC showdown is as close as it gets—a clash between two powerhouse programs that know each other intimately. Just weeks ago, Western Michigan edged Denver 2–1 in double overtime to win the conference championship. Now, they meet again with a national title on the line.
What to Expect: This game has all the makings of a tense, tactical chess match. Both teams boast elite offenses, structured defenses, and strong goaltending. Expect a tight, physical contest—possibly low-scoring and potentially heading into overtime.
Edge: Western Michigan (Slightly)
Recent Form:
Western Michigan is red-hot in 2025, with a 17–3 record since January and an 8-game win streak.
Denver, while battle-tested, has shown more inconsistency down the stretch.
Special Teams:
Penalty Kill: Western Michigan holds a key advantage here:
WMU: ~87% (Top-5 nationally)
Denver: ~82% (Outside top-15)
This could be decisive against Denver’s lethal 29% power play.
Depth & Balance:
Western Michigan isn’t reliant on a single line. While Denver’s top duo (Devine/Thompson) is elite, Western can counter with Bump/Washe and still roll out other scoring lines.
WMU has consistently won the 5-on-5 battles, wearing teams down with balanced, relentless pressure.
Goaltending:
Hampton Slukynsky has proven himself under pressure, having already outdueled Denver’s goaltender in the NCHC final.
Both teams average just 2.1 goals against per game, so netminding and shot quality will be critical.
Counterpoint: Denver's X-Factors
Championship Pedigree: Multiple Denver seniors have already won a national title and know how to respond after tough losses.
Coaching & Adjustments: David Carle is seeking his third national championship in four years. If any coach can scheme a turnaround, it’s him.
Elite Talent: With the top two scorers in the country and the No. 2 power play, Denver can break open tight games if given space or power-play time.
Prediction:
Western Michigan wins a one-goal nail-biter.
Confidence Level: 5/10
The Broncos’ slight edge in momentum, special teams, and recent head-to-head success tips the scale—but only barely.
This is essentially a toss-up, and fans should be ready for anything in what could be the most thrilling semifinal.
Don’t be surprised if it goes to overtime again.
Penn State vs. Boston University (Semifinal 2)
This semifinal delivers a classic contrast: blue-blood vs. upstart. Boston University brings tournament pedigree, elite talent, and Frozen Four experience. Penn State, meanwhile, is making its first-ever appearance—riding momentum, belief, and the energy of a breakthrough run.
Edge: Boston University
Offensive Firepower:
BU boasts one of the most dynamic forward groups in the nation. The top six includes Quinn Hutson, Cole Eiserman, and Ryan Greene, all dangerous in transition and on the power play.
Their 28.4% power play is among the nation’s best—and it presents a major mismatch against Penn State’s 79% penalty kill.
If BU can draw penalties with speed and puck control, they could pile up goals and force PSU out of their comfort zone.
Experience Advantage:
BU reached the Frozen Four last season, and players like Hutson and Greene have already been on this stage.
In contrast, no Penn State player has ever played in a Frozen Four, and early nerves could come into play under the spotlight.
Matchup Factor:
Penn State hasn’t faced a forward group with the depth and skill BU brings. Managing the Terriers’ top lines over 60 minutes is a massive challenge.
BU’s finishing ability—especially if they get time and space in the offensive zone—could be the difference-maker.
Penn State's Path to the Upset
Make It a Track Meet:
PSU thrives in fast-paced, chaotic games and needs to turn this into a shootout. BU allowed 5+ goals in seven regular-season games, so their defense can break down.
If Penn State’s forecheck disrupts BU’s breakout and Aiden Fink continues his offensive surge, the Lions can keep pace or even take control.
Goaltending X-Factor:
Arsenii Sergeev was spectacular in the regional final and gives PSU a chance to steal a game.
BU’s likely starter, Mathieu Caron, has been steady but not unshakable. A red-hot Sergeev could be the great equalizer.
Momentum & Belief:
Penn State just dropped 5 goals on a strong Maine team, and they’ve embraced their underdog identity.
If they strike early or BU takes undisciplined penalties, the Lions can absolutely flip the script.
Prediction:
Boston University wins a high-scoring battle.
Potential Score: BU 5, PSU 3
Confidence Level: 7/10
BU’s depth, power play, and tournament experience give them the upper hand—but it won’t be easy. Penn State is playing fearless, Sergeev is locked in, and their offense can erupt at any moment. Expect a back-and-forth game with momentum swings and plenty of scoring chances. Ultimately, BU’s ability to finish and control the game late should carry them to the national title game.
Cautionary Note: If BU takes penalties or lets PSU grab an early lead, this game could shift quickly. The upset is real—but BU remains the more complete team on paper and earns the nod to advance.
o1-pro (AI)’s NCAA D1 Men’s Hockey Championship Matchup Prediction (2025): Western Michigan vs. Boston University
Matchup Breakdown
Western Michigan’s Game Plan:
Expect the Broncos to dictate pace with a structured, heavy game similar to how Cornell slowed BU in the regional semifinal.
Defensive depth gives them the best shot at containing BU’s top scorers (Hutson, Eiserman, Greene), unlike Penn State.
With scoring depth across four lines, WMU can test BU’s defense beyond just the top pair.
WMU’s elite penalty kill and faceoff success allow them to control puck possession and neutralize BU’s biggest strength—their power play.
Boston University’s Game Plan:
BU will try to break through Western’s structure with speed and skill, generating rush chances and drawing penalties.
Their top unit is lethal, but will need to capitalize on limited chances against WMU’s disciplined scheme.
The key will be goaltending: if BU’s netminder (likely Caron) plays above his season average, they could survive the expected shot suppression.
Prediction: Western Michigan Wins the 2025 National Championship
Projected Score: Western Michigan 3, Boston University 2
Confidence Level: 7/10
Why Western Michigan?
Defensive Edge: WMU gives up nearly one fewer goal per game than BU. In a title game setting, defensive structure often prevails.
Goaltending Advantage: WMU’s netminders (.922 save%) have been consistently excellent, while BU’s tandem (.904) has been solid, but not elite.
Special Teams + Discipline: The Broncos' penalty kill, faceoff dominance, and disciplined play could keep BU’s power play from tilting the game.
Momentum: Western is riding high after taking down Denver and entering the Frozen Four as the No. 1 team in the nation. Their confidence and composure are peaking at the perfect time.
X-Factor to Watch
The showdown between Western’s shutdown defensive pair and BU’s top line could determine the outcome. If WMU limits BU’s top unit to just one goal or fewer, the advantage swings heavily in their favor.
Final Take:
This would be a worthy finale to one of the best Frozen Fours in recent memory. BU absolutely has the talent to win, especially if their stars get hot early.
But Western Michigan’s complete 200-foot game, superior goaltending, and ability to adapt under pressure give them the edge.
o1-pro Pick: 🏆 Western Michigan – the 2025 NCAA Men’s Ice Hockey National Champions.