2025 Final Four Predictions (Men's NCAA Basketball): Duke, Florida, Auburn, Houston - by ChatGPT o1-Pro + Deep Research
ChatGPT's o1-pro with Deep Research makes its Final Four predictions for 2025...
My brackets have performed well in the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament (“March Madness”).
My strategy? Since: (A) some top (#1) seeds typically make the final four AND (B) the 2024-2025 season had massive statistical & talent gaps between top seeds & lower seeds (arguably larger than ever) — I went mostly chalk (but underperformed pure chalk).
Funny enough, if you had gone pure chalk (picking all favorites to win) — you’d be in the top 97.4% (better than ~97.4% of all brackets on ESPN). Pure chalk would have you in the top 674k brackets going into the Final Four games today.
The logic did favor chalk in 2025 based on talent, performance, and statistical discrepancies between top-ranked (elite) teams and lower ranked teams… the gaps were far more substantial than other years. I mentioned this in a different post.
But it’s still tough to believe that pure chalk will outperform (because there’s often chaos). And while it’s common for #1 seeds to make the Final Four and win championships — it’s very rare for all #1 seeds to be in the Final Four simultaneously.
All #1 seeds in the Final Four has only happened ONE other time (2008).
I filled out 25 total brackets through ESPN, using various strategies for each (statistical-oriented, weighted with some randomness, only upsets if seed is within a certain gap, expert brackets tweaked, etc.)… won’t go into too many details.
Anyways, I always track ONE “true bracket” or a “personal bracket” that I aim to “try my best” on… and my personal bracket this year is in the 89.3%/percentile (worse than pure chalk!) — but hey, it’s still better than 89.3% of brackets.
This means that although I have other brackets (24 others)… this is the one that I claim when telling people how my picks are doing.
Of course I could lie and claim that I’m in the top 99% or 99.9% percentiles (2 of my other brackets are in fact in these positions right now) — but these aren’t the brackets I’d take credit for in discussions.
The Final Four in my personal bracket? Michigan State, Florida, Duke, Houston — with Duke vs. Florida in the Championship… and Duke winning it. So I did fairly well, but not good enough to outperform “pure chalk!”
How did the o1-pro Deep Research March Madness 2025 bracket perform? It’s doing worse than pure chalk as well — and worse than my personal bracket. Entering the Final Four it’s in the top 85.8% (3.5M rank).
This is why I tell people: AI doesn’t have any advantage over logical humans in March Madness picks — a lot of this is pure luck.
One mismatch, one injury, a timely foul call, a hot shooting night, a cold shooting night, etc. Even if AI would be ahead of my picks… it would still be luck.
o1-pro with Deep Research’s Final Four? Michigan State, Florida, Alabama, Houston — with Houston vs. Florida in the Final… and Florida winning it all.
What about in my “Second Chance Bracket” for 2025? (This is a bracket ESPN does from the Sweet 16 onward for fun… much higher odds of doing well.)
My true picks ~90.1% (Rank: 519K) entering the Final Four — and o1-pro Deep Research’s Second Chance 2025 picks? ~76.7% (Rank 1.2M). The strategy here was exceptional though IMO.
I also have 2 perfect (100%) “Second Chance” brackets so far (both with Duke winning it all — but with different matchups in the Final)… even if I win out with perfect brackets, it’ll likely come down to the final scores of the Championship (whoever is closest wins).
Anyways… I present to you… o1-pro’s Deep Research predictions for the Final Four. Not that this is rocket science type stuff… just wanted to be entertained by the AI’s research and analysis. I had it account for various things like momentum, statistics, injuries, and other variables (won’t mention everything here).
Note: I also did “Deep Research” with the general 4o model to see how its analysis stacked up to o1-pro’s. o1-pro used 35 sources and took ~10 minutes and 4o used 30 sources and took ~10 minutes. Both agreed on the predictions. 4o’s analysis was excellent as well (but o1-pro’s is below); predictions are the same (the rationale and specifics e.g. scorelines were slightly different).
2025 NCAA Final Four Predictions
The 2025 NCAA Men’s Final Four features four powerhouse teams – Florida, Auburn, Duke, and Houston – that have been among the nation’s best all season. Each brings a potent blend of talent, advanced metrics, and momentum into San Antonio. Below we analyze each national semifinal matchup, predict the winners of the semifinals and ultimately the national championship. All statistical claims and facts are sourced from official stats or reputable media.
Semifinal #1: Florida Gators vs. Auburn Tigers
Florida Gators: Team Overview (2025)
Florida earned its Final Four berth behind an explosive offense and formidable depth. The Gators average 85.4 points per game, which ranks third nationally, and maintain a +15.8 scoring margin while shooting 47.3% from the field. They hit nearly 10 three-pointers per game at a 35.7% clip.
Point guard Walter Clayton Jr., who averages 18.1 points per game, is the “head of the snake” for Florida. A first-team All-American, Clayton is known for his clutch play and has consistently delivered in high-pressure moments throughout the NCAA Tournament. He played a pivotal role in helping the Gators survive a scare against defending champion UConn and rally from a 10-point deficit in the Elite Eight.
Clayton's backcourt partner, Alijah Martin, adds athletic scoring from the wing and averages 14.5 points per game. Notably, Martin will become the first player ever to start in the Final Four for two different programs, having previously starred in Florida Atlantic’s 2023 run before transferring to Florida. His big-game experience brings additional value to the Gators' lineup.
Florida’s greatest strength may be its frontcourt depth. Starters Alex Condon (10.8 PPG, 7.7 RPG) and Rueben Chinyelu (6.5 RPG) form a bruising duo in the paint. Off the bench, 6’9” forward Thomas Haugh (9.8 PPG, 6.1 RPG) and 7’1” center Micah Handlogten provide elite rim protection and rebounding.
Florida ranks fifth nationally in offensive rebounding rate at 38.9%, a testament to its physicality and deep rotation of bigs. On average, the Gators outrebound their opponents by +8.6 per game, often creating second-chance scoring opportunities.
Defensively, Florida is stout—allowing just 69.7 points per game and limiting opponents to only 29.6% shooting from beyond the arc. KenPom ranks Florida’s adjusted defense in the top 10 nationally.
The Gators feature an experienced backcourt, a deep and imposing frontcourt, and a fast-paced, balanced attack that has been tested by a strong tournament schedule, including wins over UConn and Texas Tech.
Auburn Tigers: Team Overview (2025)
Auburn was arguably the nation’s top team for much of the season, entering the NCAA tourney with a 32–5 record and an SEC regular-season title. The Tigers boast one of the country’s most efficient two-way teams, ranking in the top 10 nationally in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
They score 83.2 points per game (12th in D-I) while allowing just 69.2 (88th) – the relatively higher points against is partly due to Auburn’s tempo, as their defense is elite on a per-possession basis.
Coach Bruce Pearl’s squad is athletic, relentless, and excels at rim protection. Auburn was one of the best teams in the sport at blocking shots in 2025, anchored by 6’10” junior center Johni Broome.
Broome, the SEC Player of the Year, averages a double-double (around 18.7 PPG, 10.9 RPG) and 2+ blocks per game, patrolling the paint with excellent timing. His impact was on full display in the Elite Eight, where he dominated with 22 points and 16 rebounds to lead Auburn past No. 2 seed Michigan State.
The Tigers’ backcourt and wing rotation provide scoring punch and defensive grit. Senior guard Denver Jones (a transfer from FIU) chips in around 15 PPG and earned SEC All-Defensive Team honors, often guarding the opponent’s top perimeter threat.
Wing Miles Kelly (Georgia Tech transfer) adds shooting (he had 22 points in the regular-season meeting vs. Florida). Freshman point guard Tahaad Pettiford and Furman transfer J.P. Pegues share playmaking duties, with Pettiford’s quickness offering a change of pace.
Auburn isn’t as deep in the post as Florida – 6’11” grad Dylan Cardwell is the primary backup big – but they compensate with active hands and help defense. Auburn forces turnovers and blocks shots to ignite transition offense.
One concern was Auburn’s form entering March: they lost three of their last four games before the tournament. However, they regained momentum in the Big Dance.
After shaking off a slow first half against #16 Alabama State in the opener, the Tigers showed resiliency by erasing a 10-point deficit vs. #5 Michigan in the Sweet 16. Pearl is coaching in his second Final Four (he led Auburn in 2019 as well), and his team appears to have righted the ship at the perfect time.
Notably, Johni Broome gave Auburn a brief scare in the Elite Eight by exiting with ankle and elbow injuries, but he returned and finished the game. All indications are that he will play in San Antonio; his health and performance are absolutely pivotal to Auburn’s title hopes.
When Broome is at his best, Auburn’s offense operates inside-out and their defense can suffocate opponents in the lane. The Tigers’ statistical profile is very similar to Florida’s: Auburn too has an elite offense (KenPom adjusted offensive rating 128.4, 2nd only to Florida) and a top-15 defense (KenPom adjusted defensive rating 93.4, ranked 12th).
This is a balanced, veteran squad with a star big man and a track record of winning big games.
Key Matchups & Factors: Florida vs. Auburn
This all-SEC showdown pits strength against strength. Florida and Auburn feature the two most efficient offenses in the nation, per KenPom’s ratings.
Florida’s uptempo attack (85+ PPG) thrives on guard play and offensive rebounding, whereas Auburn’s offense often runs through Broome in the post surrounded by shooters.
When these teams met on Feb. 11 in conference play, Florida won 90–81 on Auburn’s home floor, outshooting the Tigers and holding Johni Broome to a relatively quiet playmaking role (he led Auburn in assists that game, but not in scoring or rebounding).
That result gives the Gators confidence, but both teams have evolved since then. Key factors to watch in the rematch include:
Battle in the Paint: Florida’s deep rotation of bigs (Condon, Chinyelu, Haugh, Handlogten) will try to wear down Johni Broome. Florida’s frontcourt depth means they can defend aggressively and afford foul trouble more than Auburn can. Auburn, however, excels at rim protection themselves – Broome and Cardwell will challenge every shot. Florida’s nation-leading offensive rebounding (39% rate) versus Auburn’s solid but not spectacular rebounding (Auburn +4.4 margin, ~37.6 RPG) could tilt possession count in Florida’s favor. If the Gators dominate the offensive glass, Auburn may have difficulty getting enough stops.
Guard Play & Perimeter Shooting: Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin form a more prolific backcourt duo than Auburn’s guards, averaging a combined ~32 PPG. Clayton’s ability to penetrate and either finish or kick out will test Auburn’s perimeter defense. Auburn’s Denver Jones, an All-SEC defender, will likely guard Clayton or Martin at key moments. On the flip side, Auburn will need outside shooting to loosen Florida’s interior defense. The Tigers shoot a respectable 36% from three as a team, led by marksmen like Miles Kelly. Florida’s defense has held opponents to under 30% from deep, so the outcome of these three-point battles (Auburn’s shooters vs. Florida’s perimeter defense) will be crucial.
Pace & Transition: Florida is comfortable playing fast and scoring in the 80s or 90s, while Auburn can thrive in an up-tempo game as well (they averaged 83 PPG). We may see a track meet, but Florida might actually prefer a quicker pace to utilize their bench depth and multiple scoring options. Auburn could choose to slow it down a bit to play through Broome and keep Florida out of rhythm. Turnovers will also factor into pace – Florida has a positive turnover margin and scores almost 15 PPG off turnovers, so Auburn must take care of the ball against the Gators’ active defense.
Coaching & Experience: Bruce Pearl’s Final Four experience (2019) and his reputation for motivating underdogs is an intangible edge for Auburn. Florida’s second-year coach Todd Golden is making his first Final Four appearance as a head coach. However, Golden is known for his analytical approach and poise, and he has a veteran roster to rely on. On the court, very few players on either side have Final Four experience – except Florida’s Alijah Martin, who was on this stage two years ago. How each team handles the early nerves in a cavernous Alamodome could swing momentum. If either side falls into an early shooting slump, look for the coaches to adjust – Florida by using their bench depth, Auburn by leaning on Broome inside or pressing on defense.
Recent Momentum: Florida had to gut out close wins in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, showing composure in clutch moments. Auburn, conversely, just delivered a “statement” 19-point win over Michigan State after a comeback win the game prior. Both have been tested; neither has coasted through the bracket. Florida’s path (which included the reigning champs and a Big 12 power) might be slightly tougher than Auburn’s, indicating the Gators are battle-hardened.
Location & Fan Support: Being an all-SEC matchup in Texas, neither team has a true geographic advantage. San Antonio is roughly equidistant from Florida and Alabama, so expect both fanbases to travel well. The crowd should be fairly split, creating a loud but neutral environment. If anything, the two SEC fan contingents might jointly create a spirited atmosphere when compared to the later game (which features Houston’s home-state crowd). Intangibles like fan noise likely won’t heavily favor one side here.
Prediction: Florida over Auburn
Confidence: Moderately High
This semifinal projects as a tight, high-scoring contest, but Florida’s depth and backcourt edge give the Gators a slight advantage. Florida can throw multiple defenders at Johni Broome to limit his dominance down low, as they did in their February victory.
Meanwhile, Walter Clayton Jr.’s playmaking and clutch shot-making should allow Florida to execute in the late-game halfcourt, where Auburn’s offense can stagnate if Broome is bottled up.
The Gators’ superior rebounding (especially on the offensive end) could lead to a handful of extra possessions or second-chance buckets that prove decisive. Both teams are elite on both ends, but Florida’s balance (No. 1 adjusted offense and top-10 defense) and the confidence from already beating Auburn once tilt the scales.
Auburn absolutely has a path to win – namely, if Broome plays like a National Player of the Year (20+ points, 15+ boards, 4+ blocks) and Auburn’s supporting cast hits timely threes, the Tigers could certainly prevail.
However, on paper Florida answers every strength of Auburn with one of its own, and the Gators’ guards are more likely to take over the game down the stretch.
We predict Florida will win by a margin of around 5-8 points, in a game that stays within two possessions until the final minute.
Confidence level: ~7.5/10 – Florida is a slight favorite given the matchup dynamics and past result, but as two evenly matched No. 1 seeds, an Auburn win would not be a major shock.
Semifinal 2: Duke Blue Devils vs. Houston Cougars
Duke Blue Devils: Team Overview (2025)
Duke enters the Final Four as the lone blue blood program in this group and the team to beat according to many analysts. Under third-year head coach Jon Scheyer, the Blue Devils went 35–3, dominated the ACC, and were ranked #1 in the final AP poll.
This Duke squad is remarkable for its combination of size, skill, and efficiency. They are literally the tallest team in Division I – the shortest starter stands 6’6” – and they use that length to overwhelm opponents on both ends.
Offensively, Duke has been a juggernaut: KenPom ranks Duke #1 in adjusted offensive efficiency, averaging 83.7 points per game (9th nationally).
They shoot the ball extremely well at all three levels, ranking in the top 15 nationally in two-point FG% (58.5%), three-point FG% (38.6%), and free throw % (79%). There is no single way to guard this offense when it’s clicking.
Freshman forward Cooper Flagg has been the headliner – the 6’8” phenom (projected #1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft) leads Duke in scoring and rebounding and is capable of takeover performances.
Flagg is flanked by an incredibly versatile lineup: 6’6” senior Sion James (a transfer, providing veteran leadership and perimeter defense), 6’5” sophomore Tyrese Proctor at point guard (an excellent facilitator and improved shooter), 6’6” freshman Kon Knueppel (an elite sharpshooter on the wing), and 7’2” freshman center Khaman Maluach anchoring the paint.
Duke can also bring impact players off the bench, like junior forward Mark Mitchell and sophomore guard Caleb Foster, without sacrificing much size or talent. The result is a team that can score inside or out and rarely gets exploited in mismatches defensively due to their length.
Defense is actually where Duke has made its biggest leap this season. Scheyer’s team prides itself on contesting every shot – opponents average only 62.6 points against Duke (7th in the nation), and Duke’s adjusted defensive efficiency is 4th-best in the country.
The Blue Devils excel at protecting the rim (7’2” Maluach alters countless attempts) and closing out on shooters with their rangy lineup. They allowed ACC foes and NCAA tournament opponents alike very few open looks. Duke’s defensive rebounding is also strong, thanks to their collective size.
If there is a potential vulnerability, it might be that Duke hasn’t often faced teams that can physically match them – so how they respond against an equally tough Houston squad will be telling.
It’s also worth noting that no player on Duke’s roster has played in a Final Four (the last time Duke made it was 2022, and none of those rotation players remain on the team).
Still, with a roster stacked with future pros and a season’s worth of cohesion, Duke looks every bit like a championship-caliber team on paper.
Houston Cougars: Team Overview (2025)
Houston’s program identity under veteran coach Kelvin Sampson can be summarized in one word: defense. The Cougars (34–4) are the nation’s best defensive team by the numbers, leading Division I in points allowed (just 58.3 PPG conceded) and ranking #1 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Houston plays a tough, physical brand of basketball – they contest every possession, rebound ferociously, and wear teams down. In many ways, this is a prototypical Sampson team: relentless on defense and disciplined on offense.
What’s different this year is that Houston has added an unexpected offensive weapon: the three-point shot. The Cougars were the #1 three-point shooting team in the country, hitting 39.8% from deep. Unlike some past Houston teams that struggled to score for stretches, this group can light it up from outside, making them much more balanced.
The backcourt drives Houston’s success. Senior guard LJ Cryer and sophomore Milos Uzan form one of the nation’s best guard tandems. Cryer, a transfer who won a national title with Baylor in 2021, brings championship experience and deadeye shooting (42.4% from three).
Uzan, a transfer from Oklahoma, has been a revelation – he shoots 45.2% from beyond the arc and runs the point efficiently. Together, they account for a large share of Houston’s scoring and playmaking.
On the wing, Houston features versatile defenders like Terrance Arceneaux and sharpshooter Damian Dunn (if applicable – Houston often goes three-guard). The frontcourt may not have a star as nationally recognized as past Cougar bigs, but it is solid: forwards J’Wan Roberts and Ja’Vier Francis (and/or others in the rotation) provide interior defense, rebounding, and finish plays inside.
Houston is a bit undersized at some positions – for instance, Roberts is a 6’7” center – but they compensate with strength and positioning. The Cougars gang-rebound and often win 50-50 balls, extending possessions.
In fact, typically Houston is among NCAA leaders in offensive rebound rate; this year their offensive board work has been slightly less prominent (partly because they shoot so well initially), but it’s still a part of their DNA under Sampson.
One of the most impressive aspects of Houston’s run is their consistency. This is Houston’s second Final Four since 2021 (and third straight deep tournament run), showing the program’s sustained excellence.
The current roster’s tournament experience is significant: several players were on the squad that made the Elite Eight in 2024, and Cryer has been through a title run.
In this year’s NCAA Tournament, Houston has been dominant: they’ve won by double-digits in every game so far, including a 69–50 drubbing of No. 2 Tennessee in the Elite Eight, where their defensive mastery was on full display.
Offensively, the Cougars aren’t high-scoring (74.0 PPG) due to their deliberate pace, but they are efficient – about 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency – and very deliberate in shot selection.
About one-third of Houston’s points come from three-pointers, and when those are falling, they can bury teams quickly. If the threes aren’t dropping, Houston will try to grind out games in the 60s by forcing turnovers and winning the rebounding war.
Coach Sampson’s squad is mentally tough and unafraid of the big stage, having come so close in recent years to the program’s first championship.
Key Matchups & Factors: Duke vs. Houston
This Duke–Houston clash is a classic battle of offensive firepower versus defensive grit – and yet both teams are multifaceted beyond that. The contrast in styles should be fascinating, with Duke preferring a faster pace and Houston likely aiming to turn it into a halfcourt slugfest. Key factors to watch include:
Duke’s Offense vs. Houston’s Defense (Strength-on-Strength): This is the headliner matchup: the No. 1 offense vs. the No. 1 defense in the country. Duke scores about 1.26–1.28 points per possession (adjusted), while Houston allows only ~0.88 points per possession (adjusted). Something’s got to give. Duke’s advantage is their size and scoring balance – they can put 4–5 guys on the floor who can create shots. Houston, however, plays suffocating perimeter defense and will aggressively challenge Duke’s shooters. A critical aspect will be how Duke handles Houston’s physicality. The Cougars will bump cutters, fight through screens, and contest every pass – can Duke’s relatively young team stay composed and execute? Turnovers could tilt this battle: Duke has been decent at protecting the ball, but under intense pressure (which Houston will apply), mistakes can happen. If Duke is able to run its offense smoothly and shoot near its season averages, Houston will be in trouble. Conversely, if Houston can disrupt Duke’s rhythm, we could see the Blue Devils held well below their usual output. Keep an eye on the 3-point line: Duke’s shooters (Knueppel, Proctor, Flagg) vs. Houston’s close-outs. Houston has held opponents to low percentages all year, but Duke’s height means they can shoot over defenders at times.
Houston’s Offense vs. Duke’s Defense: This matchup is often overlooked, but equally important. Houston is not a run-and-gun offense; they are methodical, averaging only ~74 points (which is 169th in pace-adjusted scoring). Duke’s defense, anchored by Maluach inside, will try to take away Houston’s drives and contest the three-point line. Houston’s improvement in three-point shooting is a wildcard – 33% of their points come from deep, and Duke will need to extend its defense without overextending (the Cougars can also back-cut or drive if defenders sprint at shooters). Guards LJ Cryer and Milos Uzan are the engines; expect Duke to rotate a mix of defenders on them. A 6’6” defender like Sion James on Cryer (6'1") could bother the smaller guard’s shooting. Likewise, Proctor’s length on Uzan may make it harder for Houston to initiate offense. If Houston can’t hit outside shots, they may struggle to score in the paint over Duke’s twin towers (Flagg at 6’8” and Maluach at 7’2”). One key for Houston will be offensive rebounding – historically a strength. If shots miss, can Roberts, Francis and co. beat Duke’s big men to the boards? Extra possessions could be a lifeline if Houston’s first-shot offense falters. Conversely, Duke clearing the defensive glass will fuel their transition game, which Houston wants to avoid. This facet – rebounding – might quietly decide the game.
Pace & Tempo Control: Duke doesn’t necessarily play at breakneck speed, but they are comfortable scoring early in the shot clock or pushing off rebounds. Houston will aim to slow this game down to a crawl, use most of the shot clock on offense, and make Duke guard for long stretches. In the Elite Eight, Houston held a normally fast-paced Tennessee team to 50 points by grinding each possession. If this semifinal is played in the halfcourt with scores in the 60s, that favors Houston. If it’s more open and reaches the 70s or 80s, that means Duke probably dictated tempo and is likely coming out on top. Watch the first 10 minutes: if Duke jumps out in transition or gets into an offensive flow, Houston could be playing catch-up (which is not their comfort zone). But if early on we see a lot of missed shots, fouls, and scrappy play, Houston has successfully dragged Duke into the mud, so to speak.
Foul Trouble & Free Throws: Officiating can loom large in a clash of styles. Duke’s aggressive offense will put pressure on the refs to call contact; Houston’s defenders are handsy and physical, which could lead to fouls. Duke shoots 79% from the foul line, so if they get into the bonus early, they will capitalize. On the other side, Houston’s offense could benefit from drawing fouls on Duke’s big men – if Maluach or Flagg has to sit with fouls, Duke’s rim protection drops and Houston can attack inside more. Keep in mind Houston’s free throw shooting is solid (~74% as a team, not cited here but likely given their general shooting prowess). In a tight game, the team that gets a few more calls – or takes advantage at the charity stripe – might gain a decisive 5-6 point edge.
Experience & Coaching: Kelvin Sampson is one of the most experienced coaches in college basketball and has been to this stage before (Houston 2021). His teams are famously tough-minded; they will not be intimidated by Duke’s prestige. In fact, Houston might relish the opportunity to take down a blue blood on the big stage, using it as fuel. Duke’s Jon Scheyer is coaching in his first Final Four as the head man (though he won one as a player in 2010). Scheyer has done a masterful job remaking Duke in his own image, but this will be a new test for him matching wits against a veteran like Sampson. That said, Scheyer did guide Duke to the Elite Eight last year, and he has shown excellent game-planning skills. On the court, Houston’s roster skews older – Cryer, Roberts, Dunn are seniors – whereas Duke leans on freshmen and sophomores (albeit extremely talented ones). Will the bright lights affect the young Blue Devils? Or will their talent shine through? Thus far in the tournament, Duke has been poised, e.g. comfortably beating No. 2 Alabama by double digits in the Elite Eight. But Houston presents a different kind of test: a team that will punch back every possession.
Intangibles & Fan Support: This game will be in Texas, which could effectively make it a semi-home game for Houston. The Alamodome crowd is likely to have a strong pro-Houston tilt given the school’s proximity and alumni base. Duke’s fanbase travels well nationally, but Houston fans (and perhaps many neutrals) will be loud in backing the Cougars. If Houston can capitalize on that energy with an early run or big defensive stands, it could rattle Duke’s young players. On the flip side, if Duke starts strong and takes the crowd out of it, the neutral site factor diminishes. Emotionally, Houston might carry a slight chip on their shoulder – they’re chasing the program’s first NCAA title and have been knocking on the door for years. Duke is accustomed to big stages, but these particular players are carving out their own legacy and may feel the pressure of expectations as slight favorites.
Prediction: Duke over Houston
Confidence: Moderate
Expect a hard-fought, low-possession game with momentum swings. In the end, we predict Duke will find a way to break through Houston’s vaunted defense and advance to the title game – but by the slimmest of margins.
This matchup is essentially a toss-up; our confidence is tempered by how evenly matched these teams are in overall quality. Duke’s ability to score from multiple positions and their massive size advantage should help counter Houston’s pressure defense.
For instance, Duke’s frontcourt can deter Houston’s drives and force the Cougars into outside shots, and if Houston cools off even slightly from their season-high 3-point percentage, they could struggle to reach 70 points.
On offense, the Blue Devils won’t expect to hit their season averages against Houston, but even something like 70 points could be enough given their defense.
A key factor is Duke’s free-throw shooting and depth – in a grind-it-out game, Duke can bring fresh legs off the bench and is less likely to beat itself with missed foul shots.
We see a scenario where Houston makes life difficult for Duke’s stars (Flagg might not go off for his usual numbers), yet Duke’s secondary players – say, Tyrese Proctor or Kon Knueppel – hit a couple of big shots to tip the balance.
Houston will absolutely not go quietly; their seniors and Sampson’s tactics will keep this tight.
Ultimately, Duke’s size on the glass and slightly more dynamic offense should yield a very close win, perhaps something like Duke 68, Houston 64. Confidence level: 6/10.
We give Duke a roughly 55-60% chance to win – they are favored due to their edge in talent and offensive efficiency, but Houston’s defense and experience make this a coin flip game.
If Houston manages to dictate tempo fully and knock down outside shots, they could just as easily suffocate Duke and win. This one should be a classic, but we lean (lightly) toward the Blue Devils advancing.
Men’s NCAA National Championship 2025: Florida Gators vs. Duke Blue Devils
Predicted matchup: Florida and Duke as the semifinal winners.
Matchup Overview
If this title game comes to pass, it will feature two No. 1 seeds and a collision of styles: Florida’s depth and fast-paced offense against Duke’s length and efficient, disciplined play.
It’s a fascinating duel between a program seeking its first championship in over 15 years (Florida) and one of college basketball’s modern dynasties (Duke) looking to capture glory under a new coach. Here’s how these teams stack up head-to-head:
Offenses: Florida and Duke boast the top two adjusted offensive ratings in the nation. Florida averages slightly more points (85.4 vs 83.7 PPG) and plays faster, while Duke’s offense is incredibly balanced and accurate (top-15 shooting splits across the board). Florida’s offense might try to push tempo and get Duke’s defense on its heels; the Gators love to run after rebounds or turnovers. Duke, however, rarely allows easy transition baskets – their ability to get back on defense and use their length to contest will be key. In the halfcourt, Florida’s offense relies a bit more on dribble penetration (Clayton creating) and offensive rebounding, whereas Duke will use a motion offense to create mismatches and open jumpers. KenPom metrics: Duke’s offensive efficiency (128.0) is fractionally behind Florida’s (128.6), so essentially it’s a wash – both offenses are elite and can score in bunches.
Defenses: Duke has the stronger defensive profile (allowing just 62.6 PPG, 7th nationally) and a top-5 adjusted defensive efficiency. Florida’s defense is very good but not quite at that level (69.7 PPG allowed, ranked ~100th in raw scoring defense due in part to pace); adjusted metrics put Florida around the top 10–15 defensively. Florida’s challenge will be dealing with Duke’s size. In the halfcourt, Florida has not seen a team with as much height at every position – Duke can switch and still have long defenders in front of Clayton or Martin. Florida’s 3-point shooters (Clayton .385, Richard .357, etc.) will be shooting over taller close-outs. One key area will be rebounding: Florida is one of the nation’s best offensive rebounding teams, but Duke’s frontline presents a formidable barrier. If Florida can crash the glass successfully even against Duke’s size, it could negate some of Duke’s defensive stops. On the other side, Duke will test Florida’s perimeter defense with their multiple shooters. Florida held opponents to 29.6% from three, but facing marksmen like Knueppel (around 40%) and Proctor means they must extend their defense without getting beat off the dribble by Duke’s wings. Turnovers could also be a factor: Florida forces more turnovers (7.4 steals per game) than Duke, using active hands. If Florida can create a few takeaways and run, that might give them an edge. However, Duke’s guards are generally careful with the ball.
Star Power & Matchups: This game would showcase some star individual matchups. Walter Clayton Jr. vs Tyrese Proctor at point guard – Clayton is the more prolific scorer, Proctor the taller playmaker. How Proctor’s 6’5” frame deals with Clayton’s quickness and how Clayton navigates Duke’s help defense will be critical. On the wing, Alijah Martin (Florida) vs Cooper Flagg (Duke) could be a marquee matchup. Martin is a veteran, physical guard/wing who can score at all three levels, but Flagg, at 6’8” with elite athleticism, might guard him and also try to pull Martin out of his comfort zone on the other end. Flagg’s ability to drive and draw fouls could hurt Florida if guys like Martin or Will Richard get into foul trouble trying to guard him. In the post, Alex Condon/Rueben Chinyelu vs Khaman Maluach: Florida’s bigs are strong and fundamentally sound, but Maluach’s 7’2” length is unique. Florida might actually use backup 7-footer Micah Handlogten at times to match up height with height. Duke’s depth means even when they go to the bench, they don’t get much smaller – Florida will need all its frontcourt pieces to neutralize Duke inside.
Coaching & Experience: Both coaches would be rookies on this stage (Scheyer’s first title game as head coach, Golden’s first as well). Scheyer does have the advantage of having been in a championship as a player and having slightly more tournament experience as a coach (this is Golden’s first NCAA run of this magnitude). That said, Golden has impressed by making a Final Four in just his second year at Florida. We might see more focus on execution rather than any coaching trickery – both coaches will lean on what got them here: for Duke, trusting their talent and system; for Florida, using lineup flexibility and sticking to their fast-paced game plan. In terms of player experience, Florida’s roster is older on average (several seniors and juniors) whereas Duke relies on freshmen/sophomores. In a title game, sometimes veteran poise can make a difference in handling the adrenaline. Florida’s leaders like Clayton and Richard are seasoned college players, and recall that Alijah Martin played in an epic Final Four game in 2023. Duke will counter with the sheer confidence and skill of their young stars.
Intangibles: Florida would have a slight edge in the underdog mentality – facing Duke in a championship, the Gators might relish proving themselves against the sport’s royalty. Florida also has recent clutch experience in this tournament (multiple close wins), which could help if the title game goes down to the wire. Duke, on the other hand, carries the pressure of expectations. If the game is tight late, will Duke’s young stars handle the moment? Or will we see nerves at the foul line or in decision-making? One thing in Duke’s favor: they have been relatively dominant in the tournament so far (average win margin in earlier rounds was comfortable), so they haven’t been pushed to a last-possession scenario yet; but one could argue that might leave them less tested in crunch time than Florida. The Alamodome crowd in this matchup would be more neutral – neither campus is near San Antonio. Duke’s national fan base might be slightly larger in attendance, but Florida fans (and possibly many neutrals/other SEC fans) would be vocal as well. Crowd noise likely wouldn’t favor one side heavily, allowing the game to be settled straight-up by the players.
Prediction: Duke defeats Florida for the National Championship
Confidence: Moderate
In our projected final, Duke’s incredible length and offensive efficiency give them the nod in a close contest with Florida.
Florida would pose the toughest challenge Duke has seen – a team that can match Duke score-for-score and has the bodies to battle in the paint. However, a few factors make us lean toward the Blue Devils to cut down the nets:
First, Duke’s defense against Florida’s guards could be a deciding factor. Florida relies on Walter Clayton Jr. to orchestrate and often to create late in games.
Duke can deploy a 6’6” defender (Sion James) to shadow Clayton and use their team length to hedge Florida’s ball screens, potentially disrupting the Gators’ perimeter flow.
In their earlier games, Florida occasionally struggled when opponents packed the paint or had size – for instance, in the Sweet 16 Florida shot poorly for 35 minutes before Clayton’s late heroics bailed them out.
Against Duke, those lanes to the basket will be even harder to come by, and Duke’s disciplined close-outs might prevent the kind of three-point barrages Florida used at times this season. Essentially, Duke is built to negate some of Florida’s biggest strengths (paint scoring and kick-out threes).
Second, Duke’s scoring options are more numerous. Florida has an outstanding backcourt, but Duke can get points from almost anywhere in its lineup. If Florida manages to contain Flagg, Duke could ride a hot hand from elsewhere (for example, Knueppel hitting 5 threes, or Proctor dishing 10 assists with timely drives).
Florida’s defense might not have enough fingers to plug all the leaks, so to speak. In contrast, Florida’s offense, while excellent, has a slightly narrower path: they need Clayton or Martin to have a strong game and they need to win the rebounding/second-chance battle.
Duke’s frontcourt can likely hold its own on the glass – remember, Duke’s the rare team that can challenge Florida’s 6’11” and 7’1” backups with equally tall players. If Florida can’t count on 15+ second-chance points, they must score efficiently on the first try, which Duke’s defense makes difficult.
One wildcard: Tempo. Florida will try to speed the game up and make it an 80+ point affair. If they succeed, their chances improve, because it likely means their guards are dictating play and Duke is off-balance. Our expectation, though, is that Duke will manage to keep the pace moderate.
They handled Alabama – another fast, guard-driven team – by double digits, showing they can impose their style on run-and-gun opponents. Florida is deeper and better defensively than that Alabama team, so it will be closer, but Duke has shown the ability to execute their game plan against various styles all year.
All told, we anticipate a thrilling championship game. Florida’s seniors and multi-pronged attack will ensure Duke has to earn everything. It wouldn’t surprise us to see a tie game with 5 minutes left. At that point, a few decisive plays – a big three, a key block – could swing it.
We give a slight edge to Duke’s superior shooting and rim protection to pull it out. Look for the Blue Devils to hit free throws in the final minute to seal a victory on the order of, say, Duke 78, Florida 73.
Our confidence in this pick is moderate (around 6.5/10). Duke has the profile of a national champion (top-5 offense and defense in efficiency), and their talent level is arguably the highest of any team in the field.
Yet Florida is a remarkably tough matchup for them – a veteran team with no obvious weakness and the resolve to claw back from deficits. If any team can topple Duke, it is Florida (or Houston/Auburn for that matter).
In a one-game scenario, Florida absolutely has the upset potential, especially if they turn it into a frenetic, physical game that tests Duke’s young players’ composure.
Still, when we weigh all the factors and data, Duke appears to have the slightest overall edge in this potential Final Four finale. We cautiously predict the Blue Devils will emerge as the 2025 national champions, adding one more banner to their storied history, while Florida’s valiant run comes up just short.
What about my Final Four predictions for 2025 Men’s NCAA Basketball (the actual human)?
I predicted Duke would win the 2025 NCAA Championship before the tournament and I’m sticking with them as my pick. I’ve seen absolutely nothing that would make me want to revise my pick… they look the most dominant and consistent. Can someone beat them? Yeah sure. These are all good teams.
Duke is elite in both Offense and Defense (#1 offensive rating, #2 in defensive rating, and #1 in net rating of the teams remaining). Plus they pass the “eye test” to me… and have the #1 pick of the 2025 NBA Draft: Cooper Flagg. Why would I pick against them? Zero logic.
Add in the fact that things have gone complete chalk thus far… things may continue going complete chalk. I’d actually like to see Houston win it though… they have the top-ranked defense overall (but are poorer offensively than the rest). So my picks are Duke to meet Florida… just like my actual bracket before the tournament.
In order to have a good shot at winning my second chance brackets that are currently in the 99% and 99.9%, respectfully, I need Auburn (99%) or Houston (99.9%) to come through… so for the sake of my bracket Houston would be cool. Do I care much? Nope. Just hoping for some close games and entertainment.
Some References:
Sports Reference: 2024-25 Florida Gators Men's Roster and Stats
Sports Reference: 2024-25 Duke Blue Devils Men's Roster and Stats
Sports Reference: 2024-25 Houston Cougars Men's Roster and Stats
Sports Reference: 2024-25 Auburn Tigers Men's Roster and Stats
CBS Sports: 2025 Final Four: Evaluating Duke vs. Houston, Florida vs. Auburn as March Madness reaches final weekend
Wikipedia: 2024–25 Auburn Tigers men's basketball team