2025 March Madness "Second Chance" Bracket Picks & Predictions (Men's NCAA Basketball) - AI ChatGPT o1-Pro Deep Research
Attempting to engineer a novel set of "Sweet 16" picks for ESPN's "Second Chance" bracket
In the Men’s “Tournament Challenge” on ESPN I have 2 brackets (both completely non-AI) that are in the top 1%… both are technically in the top 99.1% with 530 points currently and maximum points of 1810 and 1730, respectively — for the remainder (assuming things go perfectly).
So how many other people are in the top 0.9% like these brackets for the Men’s March Madness? ~209,664 (according to what my ESPN dash is displaying).
Interestingly, for the Women’s Tournament Challenge (also on ESPN) I have one bracket in the top 1% as well (99%) with a total of 580 points and a maximum of 1860 remaining. How many other people are in the top 1% for women’s? ~36,475 (according to what the ESPN dash is displaying). (There are 25 perfect brackets remaining in ESPN after the first 2 rounds of 3,425,801 total submissions.)
I posted ChatGPT’s o1-pro with Deep Research picks for 2025 March Madness Men’s Basketball Tournament… but I also used it for the Women’s (I didn’t post the output due to lower interest). (Once again, I want to emphasize that the output I consistently get with o1-pro + deep research is better than o3-mini-high + deep research — often by a significant degree depending on the topic).
How are the AI o1-pro “deep researchers” performing with their submissions:
Men’s: 94.3% (500 pts; Max remaining potential: 1780; Rank: 1,361,893)
Women’s: 72.1% (530 pts; Max remaining potential: 1810; Rank: 1,005,235)
Some notable accurate picks that o1-pro got right in 2025? #6 Ole Miss to Sweet 16. #12 Colorado State over #5 Memphis. #10 Arkansas over #2 St. John’s.
That said, it was a bit overzealous with some first-round upsets and had some notable misses (e.g. picking #5 Clemson to Sweet 16 — they were ousted Round 1 by #12 McNeese St.).
Technically my “gut picks” (which I would consider my personal “best picks” if I had to submit only one bracket) are doing decent too.
o1-pro’s are doing better than my “best picks” by a bit. My “gut” picks: 89.3% correct; 490 points; Max: 1730.
(They are somewhat neck-and-neck and it’ll come down to who does well in the Sweet 16, Elite 8, Final 4, and the Championship). (My best performing bracket is beating o1-pro but I’m comparing my 1 bracket that I made to be my “best” vs. o1’s one bracket).
For women’s my “gut picks” or “best picks” are beating the o1-pro by quite a bit: 89.9% percentile; 550 points; max: 1830. That said, o1-pro has similar max remaining points and could beat me (I have UConn winning it and it has South Carolina).
There are ZERO “perfect brackets” remaining (should be fairly obvious). Who were the “perfect bracket killers” in 2025 for the Men’s NCAA Tournament?
Note sure how accurate this is though… who was picking #16 Alabama St.? Lol. The losses for #8 Louisville and #5 Clemson were predictably the largest “killers.”
Alright so onto the ESPN “Second Chance” bracket by o1-pro with Deep Research. I actually had to run it twice because it made significant errors. I had to specify that it should only use player/coaching/injury data as of March 24, 2025 or later and I had to specify that the: South plays the West & East plays the Midwest in the Final 4 and the winners meet in the Championship (it kept erring here thinking Duke was meeting Florida in the semifinal).
I will not share my exact prompt because I want to keep this bracket unique… you can get creative with your own prompt. I kept it somewhat open-ended and agnostic and let the AI decide what it thinks is best here (so I didn’t influence it too much). It had the right goal/aim.
Note: I haven’t compared prizes for Men’s vs. Women’s bracket challenges, but if they are the same/similar there is alpha in participating in the Women’s bracket challenges (barely any people do these). I don’t even watch women’s games here, but if you want lower competition in brackets… roll the dice on the ladies. From my research I think the prize pools at ESPN were $135K for Men’s and $135K for Women’s.
What to know about “Second Chance” (Sweet 16) brackets…
Unlike full March Madness tournament brackets (64/68 teams) and ~9.2 quintillion possible outcomes… achieving a “perfect” second-chance bracket via predicting the outcomes for the final 16 teams is far more possible.
With 32,768 possible outcomes (permutations of 16 teams), odds that someone achieves a perfect “Second Chance” bracket are good, especially in a year without major upsets and a lot of participation.
If there were ever a year where upsets were less likely than usual, it’s 2025 (based on the statistical gaps between the elite teams and others).
Assuming 1 million users submit 25 brackets each (like ESPN requests), we should expect ~763 perfect brackets by random chance alone.
I’m not sure how many users typically participate in ESPN’s Second Chance brackets… but if a lot do, it’ll likely come down to the “tiebreaker” in the championship (closest to total points).
That said, it’s still far from easy. We’re left with all teams that are “on a roll” after winning their first 2 games of the tournament and the talent gaps compress (top seeds can no longer coast against #16 seeds or #8/9 seeds).
The highest remaining seed is #10 Arkansas… and most would agree that they’re playing like a top #5 seed (minimum) after knocking out St. John’s… most knew they were underrated. Other “high seeds” are #6 BYU, #6 Ole Miss, #5 Michigan… all playing well and battle-tested.
AI ChatGPT: o1-Pro Deep Research “Second Chance” (Last 16 Team) Bracket (2025): Picks & Predictions
Creating a winning Second Chance bracket means leveraging fresh insights from the first weekend of March Madness while anticipating how the remaining games might unfold. Standard scoring awards more points in later rounds, so nailing the Elite Eight, Final Four, and champion is crucial. Below is a region-by-region breakdown from the Sweet 16 to the title game, with bold picks for each matchup and analysis of key factors: team performance so far, momentum, injuries, coaching, efficiency metrics, upset potential, and more. High-risk, high-reward choices are noted – these are the bold moves that could separate you from the pack in ESPN’s Bracket Challenge, even if they deviate from consensus picks.
All four No. 1 seeds (Duke, Florida, Auburn, Houston) survived the first weekend, so this Sweet 16 is loaded with top teams. However, a lack of early upsets doesn’t mean chaos won’t erupt in later rounds. With that in mind, here’s the optimal bracket to maximize your chances.
Note: I had to correct errors in players and coaching that o1-deep research continued making even after the most optimal possible prompts. It still muddies players/coaches from 2025 with players/coaches from 2024 despite explicit instruction to use only 2025 data/rosters etc. Hallucinations still an issue.
East Region (Newark, NJ – Prudential Center)
(1) Duke vs. (4) Arizona
Duke looks like a juggernaut. The Blue Devils are huge (tallest roster in D-I) and exceptionally balanced – they rank in the top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Freshman phenom Cooper Flagg and 7’1” Khaman Maluach give Duke NBA-level talent in the frontcourt, while veteran guards Tyrese Proctor and Tulane transfer Sion James provide experience and defense.
Duke has dominated so far, winning its first two games by a combined 65+ points, a historic margin matched only by the 1999 Duke squad in the modern era. (They dismantled No. 9 seed Baylor 89-66 in the Round of 32 behind Proctor’s 25 points and 8-of-9 three-point shooting.)
Arizona is no slouch – Tommy Lloyd’s Wildcats were here last year and are hungry after a heartbreaking Sweet 16 loss in 2024. Arizona boasts a high-octane offense (82.1 PPG, 19th nationally) and crashes the glass hard (15th in offensive rebounding rate).
They’ll need those second chances to upset Duke. One intriguing X-factor: Arizona guard Caleb Love (a UNC transfer) famously dropped 28 points to knock Duke out in the 2022 Final Four, ending Coach K’s career.
He won’t fear the moment. Still, this is a quick turnaround and a long flight east for Arizona after a late Sunday game, and Duke is playing at a potentially historic level.
Pick: Duke. The Blue Devils’ size, depth, and efficiency should overwhelm Arizona, though the Wildcats’ pace and experience could keep it close for a while. Duke’s blend of talent and experience makes them the popular title pick, and they should advance if they maintain their form.
(2) Alabama vs. (6) BYU
This game promises fireworks. Alabama boasts the No. 1 scoring offense in the nation at 91.1 PPG and likes to play blazing fast – Nate Oats’ squad is first in adjusted tempo and pushes the ball off makes and misses.
They’ve reached the Sweet 16 for a third straight year on the strength of that offense and depth. Senior guard Mark Sears (an All-American) keys the Tide attack, and Bama will try to run BYU out of the gym.
BYU, meanwhile, is one of the feel-good stories of the tournament. In their first Sweet 16 since 2011, the Cougars upset No. 3 seed Wisconsin 91-89 in a shootout, showing they can score with anyone.
First-year head coach Kevin Young (hired from the NBA’s Suns) has brought pro-style flair to BYU’s offense. Forward Richie Saunders has emerged as a go-to scorer (16 PPG after 9.6 last year) and freshman Egor Demin is a future NBA talent on the wing. The Cougars are riding momentum and playing freely.
The challenge for BYU will be defending Alabama’s multitude of weapons and controlling the pace. Alabama is deeper and more battle-tested (they made the Final Four last year), and they can throw fresh bodies at BYU to wear them down. Unless BYU can seriously slow the tempo and force the Tide into a half-court game, it’s hard to pick against Bama’s firepower.
Pick: Alabama. Expect a high-scoring affair, but Alabama’s speed and offensive depth should eventually outpace BYU. (If you’re hunting for an upset here, BYU would be a bold play – they’re a new-look team with nothing to lose – but Alabama’s track record and talent give them the clear edge.)
East Regional Final (Elite Eight): Duke vs. Alabama
If this matchup materializes, buckle up – it’s a clash of heavyweights with contrasting styles. Duke has the length and defense to challenge Alabama’s fast-paced offense, and Alabama has the athleticism to push Duke more than any team yet.
Tempo will be key: Duke can play fast or slow, but they might prefer a moderate pace to exploit their half-court efficiency and prevent Bama’s transition deluge. Look for Duke’s long defenders to close out on Alabama’s shooters and for 7-footer Khaman Maluach to protect the rim against the Tide’s drives.
On the other side, Alabama will try to turn this into a track meet and test Duke’s young stars in transition. Coaching is a factor: third-year coach Jon Scheyer (Duke) versus veteran Nate Oats. Scheyer has a loaded roster, but Oats has Final Four experience.
Ultimately, Duke’s balance (top-20 in 3PT, 2PT, and FT percentages) makes them less matchup-dependent – they can win shootouts or defensive battles. Alabama’s one Achilles’ heel is if their shots aren’t falling; Duke’s defense could make life hard for Mark Sears and company.
This game could be close deep into the second half. Many brackets will have Duke here, but a savvy contrarian might take Alabama’s elite offense to catch fire and pull it out. Still, given what we’ve seen, Duke is slightly more reliable on both ends.
Pick: Duke to the Final Four. The Blue Devils’ combination of size, defensive prowess, and multiple scoring options should allow them to prevail in a hard-fought game. (It’s worth noting that only 2 of the previous 18 teams with Duke’s level of early-round dominance went on to win the title – so a Duke loss could happen – but we’ll ride their talent to reach San Antonio.)
West Region (San Francisco, CA – Chase Center)
(1) Florida vs. (4) Maryland
Florida comes into the Sweet 16 as arguably the most balanced team in the West. They survived a war in the Round of 32, withstanding defending champion UConn in a heavyweight fight to advance. That battle-tested them and shows they can handle pressure.
Under second-year coach Todd Golden, the Gators feature a potent inside-out attack led by All-American guard Walter Clayton Jr. – one of the nation’s best backcourt players. Florida can beat teams in multiple ways: they have size in the paint, depth on the bench, and elite efficiency on offense.
In fact, they rank No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency and top-10 in defensive efficiency, with virtually no glaring weaknesses. Maryland, on the other hand, is a talented #4 seed that escaped the last round by the skin of their teeth – star freshman big man Derik Queen hit a fadeaway buzzer-beater to knock out No. 12 Colorado State 72-71.
That clutch win shows Maryland’s resilience, but also hints that the Terps can be vulnerable. Maryland’s starting five is among the best in the country: Queen and junior forward Julian Reese form a formidable frontcourt (both are walking double-doubles), and guards Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice, and Selton Miguel all average double figures.
Kevin Willard’s team can definitely put up a fight – they have size and scoring in every position. The concern is depth: Maryland ranks 314th in bench minutes, meaning they rely heavily on their starters. In a grinding game, or if foul trouble arises, that could bite them.
Florida’s depth and pace of play could tire out the Terps as the game wears on. Additionally, both teams traveled cross-country to San Francisco, but Florida’s momentum (beating a two-time champ) makes them feel like the team to beat.
Pick: Florida. The Gators’ efficient offense and deeper rotation should carry them past Maryland. Look for Walter Clayton Jr. to control the game and for Florida’s bigs to neutralize Queen/Reese inside. Maryland will need an A+ shooting night (and probably a little magic) to overturn Florida – a long shot given Florida’s consistency so far.
(3) Texas Tech vs. (10) Arkansas
This matchup features an established Big 12 contender versus a red-hot Cinderella out of the SEC. Texas Tech has reinvented itself under new coach Grant McCasland. Known previously for defense, McCasland’s Red Raiders are now an offensive force, ranking No. 5 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Tech’s roster was built through the transfer portal – 7 of their top 8 players are transfers – but the chemistry is clicking at the right time. Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin (a transfer from New Mexico) is a star forward who can score at all three levels and is NBA-bound.
They also shoot the ball exceptionally well as a team: ~37% from three and 55% from two, so they can punish any defense. Arkansas, meanwhile, is the last double-digit seed standing after upsetting No. 2 seed St. John’s. The Razorbacks had an up-and-down season but have caught fire in March.
Interestingly, this is John Calipari’s first year at Arkansas, and he’s already worked his March magic – this Sweet 16 run makes Arkansas only the second team in 20 years to start conference play 0-5 and still reach the Sweet 16. Calipari brought in a slew of talent (several players followed him from Kentucky or flipped their commitments to Arkansas), and it’s paying off now.
Arkansas is an elite shot-blocking team – they averaged 5.6 blocks (4th in the nation) thanks to their length and athleticism. That rim protection and defensive size can disrupt Texas Tech’s rhythm. The key here will be pace and poise.
Tech will look to execute in the half court, moving the ball to find good shots, while Arkansas may try to speed things up with their athleticism. Arkansas has the confidence of a giant-killer and the pedigree on the bench (Calipari vs. a first-time Sweet 16 coach in McCasland) – that could be a recipe for another upset.
It’s a true toss-up despite the seeding gap. Texas Tech is more efficient and has been more consistent, but Arkansas has that Team of Destiny vibe after turning its season around.
High-risk/high-reward move: Picking Arkansas to win here could bust a lot of brackets, but it’s not far-fetched. Their defense and tournament experience (a lot of these players have played in big games, whether at Kentucky or elsewhere) give them a real shot.
Pick: Arkansas (Upset). We’ll roll the dice on the 10-seed Razorbacks to keep their run alive. The reasoning: Arkansas’s defense can challenge Tech’s shooters for 40 minutes, and if TTU’s shots aren’t falling in the unfamiliar NBA arena backdrop, the Razorbacks can capitalize. Plus, Calipari’s tactical experience in Elite Eight games could shine through late. (If you prefer a safer pick, Texas Tech’s offense certainly could carry them instead – but in a pool setting, this is a spot to differentiate.)
West Regional Final (Elite Eight): Florida vs. Arkansas
If this bracket holds, the West final would pit Florida’s well-oiled machine against Arkansas’s scrappy underdogs. Florida would be the clear favorite as a No. 1 seed with a talent edge. They have multiple days to prepare for Arkansas’s style, and coach Todd Golden is a savvy strategist.
Look for Florida to lean on their size inside and disciplined offense to attack the Razorbacks. Arkansas ranks among the nation’s best in blocked shots, but Florida’s frontcourt and scheme can draw shot-blockers out of position (thanks to stretch bigs and great ball movement).
Offensively, Arkansas might struggle to score consistently on Florida – the Hogs were streaky all year, and Florida’s defense is top-10 caliber. By this point, Arkansas’s magical run could begin to falter, especially if their legs are tired from two big upsets.
It’s also worth noting the game is in San Francisco – neither fan base will have a huge homecourt advantage, though Florida’s recent success might draw more neutral support. The obvious pick is Florida, and sometimes obvious is correct.
Pick: Florida to the Final Four. The Gators’ depth and offensive execution should eventually wear down Arkansas. Expect Walter Clayton Jr. and the Gator guards to handle Arkansas’s pressure and for Florida to exploit the Razorbacks’ one weakness – a relatively short bench of their own – by pushing the tempo when possible. (Should Texas Tech advance instead, Florida vs. Tech would be a showdown of two elite offenses. Even then, Florida’s more complete defense and experience from the UConn game would make them the smart pick to win the region.)
South Region (Atlanta, GA – State Farm Arena)
(1) Auburn vs. (5) Michigan
On paper this is a 1-vs-5 game, but it has major upset potential. Auburn was dominant most of the season but hit a rough patch right before the tournament – the Tigers lost 3 of their final 4 games entering March Madness. No eventual national champion has ever limped in with a skid that bad, raising concerns about Auburn’s form.
Bruce Pearl’s squad nearly got bounced in the Round of 32, surviving a serious scare from Creighton to advance. The bright spot for Auburn is Johni Broome, their star big man and National Player of the Year candidate.
Broome anchors one of the country’s most efficient offenses – Auburn is No. 3 in adjusted offensive efficiency and top-five in taking care of the ball (only a 13.4% turnover rate). When the Tigers are clicking, they can score inside and out without beating themselves.
Michigan, however, matches up intriguingly well. The Wolverines are huge – they are the only D-I team that starts two 7-footers, Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin. That twin-tower lineup could neutralize Broome’s impact in the paint and make Auburn more perimeter-oriented.
Michigan’s stats paint a picture of a team that found itself in March: they rank 15th nationally in 2-point shooting (57.3% on twos) – thanks to feeding those big men – and they’ve developed a knack for winning close games. Michigan is 14–4 in games decided by 5 points or fewer, including 12 straight wins in such contests.
That clutch gene was on display as they edged a solid No. 4 seed in the last round. This is also a historic turnaround story – Michigan won only 8 games last year and now is in the Sweet 16, showing how far they’ve come.
The major weakness for Michigan is outside shooting (just 33.3% from three, ranked 200th). If Auburn jumps out ahead, can Michigan score quickly enough to catch up? Possibly not – but if this game stays tight, Michigan will believe it can pull it off.
Auburn will have a quasi-home crowd in Atlanta (SEC country, and Auburn fans will travel), which is a factor. But for an optimal bracket aiming to win it all, this is a spot to consider a big gamble.
High-risk/high-reward pick: Michigan. The matchup advantages and Auburn’s late struggles make the Wolverines a compelling upset choice. Auburn has more raw talent and the higher ceiling, but Michigan’s momentum and ability to win ugly could produce a shocker.
Pick: Michigan (Upset Special). We’re picking the 5-seed Wolverines to topple No. 1 Auburn in what would bust a lot of brackets. The twin 7-footers can frustrate Broome, and if Auburn’s shooting woes from late season resurface, Michigan can grind this out. (Many entries will stick with Auburn here; if Auburn plays to its peak, they certainly can advance. But we’re prioritizing the path to win the pool – not just tie – and that means taking a swing against a vulnerable 1 seed.)
(2) Michigan State vs. (6) Ole Miss
This matchup features a battle-tested Big Ten champion versus a surging SEC underdog. Michigan State under Tom Izzo is a fixture in second weekends – this is Izzo’s 16th Sweet 16 appearance at MSU. The Spartans were rock-solid all year, going 17–3 in Big Ten play to win the regular-season title, though they stumbled in the conference tourney final (lost to Wisconsin).
Sparty’s identity is tough defense and rebounding, as usual. They boast the nation’s No. 1 three-point defense, allowing opponents only 27.7% from beyond the arc, and rank 5th in adjusted defensive efficiency overall. Guards A.J. Hoggard, Tyson Walker, and Jaden Akins (assuming they’re the core – not explicitly given, but likely) form a veteran backcourt that sets the tone defensively.
The glaring issue for MSU is their own outside shooting – they hit only 31.1% of their threes (ranked 316th nationally). That’s extremely poor for a team at this level, and it means MSU sometimes struggles to pull away from teams (cold stretches can let opponents hang around).
Enter Ole Miss: Coach Chris Beard has quickly made his mark on the Rebels. Ole Miss hadn’t won an NCAA game in decades, and Beard just led them to two (over North Carolina and Iowa State) to reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2001. In doing so, Beard became only the 8th coach ever to win a March Madness game with four different schools – his knack for postseason success is well-known (remember his Texas Tech run to the title game in 2019).
This Ole Miss squad plays with discipline and tenacity. They’ve never reached an Elite Eight in program history, so they are already in uncharted territory. The key stat for the Rebels is their ball security: they have the third-lowest turnover rate in the nation at just 13%.
They do not beat themselves with mistakes, which is huge against a defensive team like MSU. If Ole Miss can take care of the ball and force Michigan State to shoot jumpers, they absolutely have a shot to win.
Players like senior guard Matthew Murrell and transfer center Jaemyn Brakefield (just guessing known Ole Miss players by 2025) will need to step up offensively. Atlanta is geographically closer to Ole Miss, but Michigan State’s fanbase travels as well as anyone, so expect a fairly even crowd.
In the end, Izzo’s experience and MSU’s defensive consistency make Michigan State the safer bet. It’s hard to bet against Izzo in a Sweet 16, especially with a week to prepare for a lower-seeded opponent. However, don’t be surprised if this one goes down to the wire – an Ole Miss upset would be their first Elite Eight ever, and they’ve shown they can handle close games.
Pick: Michigan State. The Spartans’ defense should limit Ole Miss’s scoring options, and while MSU’s shooting woes are real, they have multiple shot-makers (Walker/Akins) capable of hitting timely buckets when needed. Look for a relatively low-scoring, grind-it-out game. (If you’re feeling very bold, Ole Miss is an upset play here with Beard’s tournament savvy – but we’ve already taken a big swing with Michigan in this region. MSU is the more balanced team and gets the nod.)
South Regional Final (Elite Eight): Michigan vs. Michigan State
A rivalry game in the Elite Eight would be a thrilling (and unlikely) scenario – but our bracket has the two Michigan schools meeting in Atlanta for a Final Four berth. If it happens, expect intensity off the charts. MSU beat Michigan 2x convincingly, but this is a different time of year and atmosphere.
Key factors: Michigan’s size vs. MSU’s defense. The Wolverines’ dual-7-foot lineup will challenge MSU’s interior, but note that the Spartans faced big men all Big Ten season long and held their own. Izzo will have a game plan to double the post or front the bigs to deny easy entry passes, possibly forcing Michigan’s less reliable guards to make plays.
Conversely, Michigan State’s offense will be tested by Michigan’s length – those two 7-footers can clog the paint, so MSU must hit some outside shots to stretch the defense. This is where that 31% 3-point shooting could bite them; however, Michigan’s perimeter defense isn’t as renowned as their offense, so maybe the Spartans find a hot hand.
When it comes to coaching, Tom Izzo has been to eight Final Fours – he knows how to win this game. Dusty May is new to this stage (Michigan hasn’t been in the Final Four since 2018). The pressure might weigh heavier on Michigan, especially given their miraculous run – at some point, the magic could run out.
Additionally, playing an archrival with a Final Four on the line might actually favor the calmer, steadier team, which is Michigan State. They’ve been aiming for this all year; Michigan is playing with house money after such a turnaround season. In terms of bracket strategy, a lot of people will have Auburn or Michigan State coming out of this region.
We eliminated Auburn, and we have MSU in play – that sets us up to gain big if MSU delivers.
Pick: Michigan State to the Final Four. The Spartans’ defense and experience give them the edge in a close, physical contest. Michigan’s story is fantastic, but duplicating their clutch heroics game after game is a tall order. Izzo cuts down the nets in the South Region, sending a 2-seed (not a 1) to the Final Four – which is a nice moderate upset to differentiate your bracket. (Alternate scenario: If Auburn were to survive and face MSU here, that would be a battle of a great offense vs. great defense. Many would pick Auburn as the 1-seed, but note that Auburn’s late struggles and MSU’s March pedigree would still make the Spartans a savvy pick to pull the mild upset. Either way, we like Michigan State’s chances to emerge from the South.)
Midwest Region (Indianapolis, IN – Lucas Oil Stadium)
(1) Houston vs. (4) Purdue
This Sweet 16 matchup is loaded with storylines and contrasts. Kelvin Sampson’s Houston squad is a defensive powerhouse again – no surprise there – but what makes this Cougars team especially dangerous is their improved offense. Houston is holding opponents to minuscule scoring (ranked #1 in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency), yet they also shoot nearly 40% from three as a team.
In fact, at 39.8% from deep, Houston ranks No. 1 in the nation in 3-point shooting, a huge jump from last year when they were just average from outside. That added firepower, combined with their trademark toughness, has Houston in the top 10 offensively as well.
They play at a slow, grinding pace (third-slowest of any tournament team), which means they control tempo and force opponents to execute in the half court against their suffocating defense. On the other side, Purdue is back in the Sweet 16 and eager for redemption after coming up one game short of a title last year.
Matt Painter’s Boilermakers shook off that historic 2023 upset loss to a 16-seed by making a run to the 2024 title game, and now they’ve returned with a new-look squad. 7’4” Zach Edey, the two-time national Player of the Year, is gone to the NBA – but Purdue hasn’t missed a beat.
They’ve handed the keys to point guard Braden Smith, an All-American playmaker who averaged 8.6 assists (second in D-I) this year. Smith orchestrates the offense brilliantly, and Purdue still operates at a high level (#6 adjusted offensive efficiency).
One of the biggest surprises has been the emergence of forward Trey Kaufman-Renn, who jumped from a reserve role (6.4 PPG) to a star (20.2 PPG) with Edey gone. Kaufman-Renn’s ability to score inside and out gives Purdue a different dimension.
The Boilermakers also shoot 38.3% from three as a team (11th nationally), so both teams in this game can light it up from deep. The X-factor here is location and crowd. Indianapolis is squarely Big Ten country – expect a sea of black-and-gold Purdue fans, making this feel like a semi-home game for the Boilermakers.
How will Houston handle potentially hostile conditions? We saw Houston struggle in a regional final in San Antonio in 2022 (another quasi-road game) when their shooting went cold. If the Cougars aren’t hitting shots, Purdue has the discipline and skill to capitalize.
Still, from a matchup perspective, Houston’s physical defense will challenge Purdue’s guards more aggressively than they’ve seen in Big Ten play. Smith will face relentless pressure, and Houston has athletes on the wing to contest Purdue’s three-point looks.
Conversely, Purdue will have to execute in a slower tempo than they might like – Houston simply doesn’t allow many transition opportunities. This feels like a game that could come down to the final few possessions.
Many brackets will take Houston, the 1 seed, but this is a spot where a savvy player might pick an upset: Purdue has Final Four experience, a veteran point guard, and the hometown crowd. Don’t forget, Painter’s team nearly won it all last year, so they won’t be intimidated by Houston.
Upset watch: Purdue absolutely can win this. However, given Houston’s demonstrable improvement (they’ve looked dominant on both ends) and Sampson’s ability to game-plan, we’ll stick with the favorite in our base pick – albeit in a nail-biter.
Pick: Houston. Expect a low-possession, high-intensity game. Houston’s edge on defense (especially if they can disrupt Purdue’s rhythm) and their newfound 3-point shooting make the difference in crunch time. (If you need to take a swing in a larger pool, picking Purdue here is a reasonable gamble – their path to victory is clear, and a 4-over-1 upset in Indy isn’t far-fetched. In our bracket, though, we’ll keep Houston alive for bigger goals.)
(2) Tennessee vs. (3) Kentucky
It doesn’t get much better than an SEC rivalry in the Sweet 16 – and this one is a classic offense vs. defense showdown. Tennessee under Rick Barnes is defined by defense. The Vols rank No. 2 in adjusted defensive efficiency (just behind Houston) and are elite in several defensive categories – for example, they hold teams to 28.3% from three (3rd-best in D-I) and block 15.7% of opponents’ shots (6th in the nation).
Guards Zakai Zeigler and Jahmai Mashack are lockdown perimeter defenders who will harass Kentucky’s ball-handlers all game. Tennessee’s weakness is on offense, where at times they can go cold. Transfer guard Chaz Lanier has been a welcome addition as a “prolific scorer”, but the Vols often rely on grinding out wins with their starting five. (Like Maryland, they don’t use the bench much – only 25% of minutes come from reserves.)
On the flip side, Kentucky has transformed itself under first-year head coach Mark Pope. After legendary coach John Calipari departed (he’s now at Arkansas, ironically), Pope took over in Lexington and has quickly found success – this is Kentucky’s first Sweet 16 since 2019.
The Wildcats did suffer a major blow late in the season, losing star guard Jaxson Robinson to a season-ending injury. But they’ve adapted and still have plenty of talent. Kentucky’s calling card this year is perimeter shooting and spacing. They hit 37.4% from three (top 25 nationally) and derive a full third of their points from beyond the arc.
If sharpshooters like Koby Brea, Jaxon Robinson, and Otega Oweh get going, UK can put up points even against stout defenses. The Wildcats also have an experienced leader in guard Lamont Butler – the same Lamont Butler who was the heart of San Diego State’s Final Four run in 2023.
He transferred to Kentucky for his final year and brings defensive grit and clutch experience (he’s been playing through a heavily-taped shoulder injury, but is gutting it out). The key to this game will be pace and shot-making. Tennessee will try to make it a half-court slugfest, contesting every pass and shot. Kentucky will want to get some flow and hit a few early triples to loosen up the Vols’ defense.
The crowd in Indianapolis will be a factor – Big Blue Nation travels in droves, and you can bet Lucas Oil Stadium will have a heavy Kentucky lean. That energy could boost the Wildcats, essentially giving them a semi-home atmosphere.
So who wins? On one hand, Tennessee’s defense is the kind that wins championships – they can absolutely smother teams. On the other, Kentucky has the kind of offensive weapons and pedigree that can rise to the occasion (and Barnes’ teams have sometimes faltered in March). This is almost a 50/50 call.
Bracket strategy note: Many people might default to the 2-seed Vols here, but picking Kentucky (a 3-seed with a big brand name) isn’t that contrarian – a lot of folks love Kentucky in March. The truly contrarian move would’ve been having Kentucky upset a 1 seed, but they didn’t have to face one yet. Given our bracket construction, we’ll opt for the favorite in a close one.
Pick: Tennessee. The Volunteers’ defense has been so consistent that we trust it to get the job done. They can harass Kentucky’s shooters just enough to keep the Wildcats below their normal scoring output. Offensively, Tennessee might only need 65-70 points to win, and with Kentucky’s best defender (Butler) banged up and their best scorer (Robinson) out, the Wildcats may not have enough answers late. Look for a potential low-scoring affair, something like 64-60. (If Kentucky does pull the minor upset, it will be because they hit 8-10 threes and force Tennessee into catch-up mode. It’s a plausible outcome – so if you’re a Kentucky believer, don’t be afraid to take them. In our optimal play, though, we’ll ride the Vols’ D.)
Midwest Regional Final (Elite Eight): Houston vs. Tennessee
If it comes down to the top two seeds, expect an absolute rock fight – a showcase of defensive mastery. Houston and Tennessee ranking #1 and #2 in adjusted defense, respectively, says it all. Points will be hard-earned in this game.
Whichever team can string together a few baskets in a row might create an insurmountable lead. Let’s break it down: Houston has the edge in offense – they’re more efficient and have more reliable shooting. Guards like LJ Cryer or Jamal Shead (if they’re still around from 2023-24) know how to get buckets in tough situations, and this Cougars team is much better from deep than last year.
Tennessee, meanwhile, may have a small advantage in athleticism and size at certain positions (the Vols’ forwards are usually very physical), but Houston is never one to be out-toughed. One concern for Tennessee is that they rely so much on their starters – by the Elite Eight, fatigue can set in, especially if they had a hard game vs. Kentucky.
Houston typically goes deeper and can bring impact players off the bench for energy. There’s also a coaching angle: Kelvin Sampson has guided Houston to the Final Four before (2021) and consistently goes deep in March.
Rick Barnes has plenty of experience but hasn’t been to a Final Four since 2003 and has sometimes struggled in Elite Eight scenarios. In a tight, late-game situation, trust in Houston’s track record of making clutch defensive stands and knocking down timely threes.
The Cougars also will enjoy being back in their home state – the Final Four is in San Antonio, so a win here means a Texas homecoming. That extra motivation (and the possibility some Houston fans make the trip to Indy knowing what’s at stake) could give them a boost.
Pick: Houston to the Final Four. In a defensive duel, we’ll take the team that has a bit more offense. Houston finds enough scoring – perhaps a few big threes – to slip past Tennessee in a game where every possession counts. The Cougars’ composure and experience in these grinder games should shine through. (If Kentucky is here instead of Tennessee, a Houston-Kentucky game would be fascinating: Houston’s D against Kentucky’s shooters in front of what would be a very pro-UK crowd. Even then, we’d lean Houston – their perimeter defense and toughness could derail Kentucky’s rhythm. Either way, Houston is our pick to come out of the Midwest.)
Final Four (San Antonio, TX – Alamodome)
Our Final Four: Duke (East) vs. Houston (Midwest), and Florida (West) vs. Michigan State (South). Three 1-seeds advanced in this scenario, but we did knock off one top seed in Auburn.
This aligns with how 2025’s tournament has been relatively chalky so far, yet we still have a mix of blue-blood programs and newer powers. The national semifinals and final will come down to matchups and momentum. Here’s how we see it playing out:
Semifinal 1: (W) Florida vs. (S) Michigan State
Florida enters this game as a favorite thanks to their outstanding balance and the fact that they likely cruised in their Elite Eight, whereas MSU had to slug it out with a rival. The Gators also catch a break playing in Texas instead of, say, the East Coast – it’s neutral turf for both (no crowd edge like MSU might have enjoyed in the Midwest or South).
Expect Florida to push the pace a bit here; while they are comfortable in half-court sets, they’ll know that MSU’s half-court defense is elite. Florida’s guards, led by Walter Clayton Jr., will try to get out in transition off any Spartan misses. One huge factor: 3-point shooting.
Michigan State’s Achilles heel is shooting from deep, and in a dome setting like the Alamodome, sometimes shooters struggle with sightlines. If MSU can’t hit enough jumpers to keep Florida honest, the Spartan offense could bog down severely.
Florida’s defense (top-10 in efficiency) is good enough to contest MSU’s drives and mid-range shots, and without the threat of the three, they can pack the paint. On the other end, Florida’s offense (No. 1 efficiency) will be the best MSU has seen.
The Spartans will have to pick their poison: Do they collapse on Walter Clayton Jr. in the post and risk Florida’s shooters (who are solid) getting open looks, or do they stay home on shooters and let the frontcourt go 1-on-1 inside?
Given Florida’s low turnover style, MSU might not be able to generate the fast-break points they love. It’s hard to see a clear matchup advantage for MSU, other than just the intangible “Izzo in March” factor. Tom Izzo has pulled off Final Four upsets before with lower-seeded teams.
He’ll have his squad prepared and fearless. If the game turns into a rock fight in the 60s, MSU absolutely has a chance – they thrive in those games and have experience in close late-game scenarios. But if Florida gets into any kind of offensive rhythm, Michigan State likely won’t have the offensive punch to keep up.
In a bracket pool, a lot of entries might have a 1-seed (like Auburn or Duke) on this side of the bracket. We have Florida vs. MSU, which is already a bit different. Sticking with Florida here gives us the best odds of getting the finalist correct, since the Gators are the more dominant team.
Pick: Florida advances to the Championship game. The Gators break open a close first half with a run in the second, as their depth and superior shooting make the difference. Michigan State’s run ends as their offense finally sputters against a top-tier opponent. (If somehow our upset pick is wrong and Auburn is in this game vs. Florida, that would be a hellacious 1 vs 1 battle of offenses. Florida, with its recent form and All-American guard play, might still be favored given Auburn’s noted inconsistencies late in the year. Either way, we favor the West Region champion here.)
Semifinal 2: (E) Duke vs. (M) Houston
This is a dream matchup – the powerhouse talent of Duke versus the ferocious toughness of Houston, with a trip to the title game on the line. It’s also a rematch of sorts of the 2021 Final Four (where Houston lost to Baylor; Duke is standing in for that kind of team now).
Let’s consider the dynamics. Duke will arguably be the most talented team in San Antonio, with multiple future NBA lottery picks on the floor. By this stage, freshmen like Cooper Flagg will no longer play like freshmen – they’ll have five tournament games under their belt.
Duke also has the advantage of size – as noted, they’re the tallest team in the country. Houston, however, has something Duke might lack: experience and seniority. Many of Houston’s key players are upperclassmen who have been in the program and understand the moment.
The Cougars also have home-state advantage – expect a massive turnout from Houston fans, given that San Antonio is just a few hours drive from Houston. That could make the Alamodome feel like a semi-road game for Duke (though the Blue Devils have a national fanbase, the noise level might favor UH). Tactically, one big key will be rebounding.
Duke’s size translates into good rebounding normally, but Houston is perennially one of the best offensive rebounding teams (even if not explicitly noted, it’s been their identity). Second-chance points could swing this game. Duke, for all its talent, is somewhat young at key spots (Flagg, etc.), and Houston’s physical, relentless style could rattle them.
We saw Duke roll through earlier rounds, but recall that historically, teams with Duke’s level of early dominance don’t always win it all – sometimes they face adversity in the Final Four. This could be that moment. Houston’s defense will throw the kitchen sink at Tyrese Proctor and the Duke guards, pressing out on shooters and bodying the Duke big men.
On the flip side, Duke’s defense is also top-notch, so Houston will need to hit some contested shots. This might come down to a single play – a charge call, a loose ball, a big three. It’s truly a heavyweight bout. From a pool-winning perspective, many entrants will pick Duke to go to (and win) the championship – they’ve been hyped as a historic-level team.
By choosing Houston to upset Duke, we differentiate our bracket while still relying on a 1-seed (so it’s not a pure long-shot). Houston has the profile of a champion and the motivation of falling short in recent years.
Coach Kelvin Sampson might cook up a game plan similar to what beat Gonzaga in 2021 or other offensive powers: slow the pace to a crawl (remember, Houston plays very slow), be ultra-physical, and execute in the half-court better. Meanwhile, Duke’s youth could show if this becomes a half-court slugfest with every possession magnified.
Pick: Houston upsets Duke. In a mild surprise, the Cougars knock off the consensus favorite with stifling defense and clutch shooting. Perhaps L.J. Cryer hits a late three, and Houston wins a barn-burner by a few points. This is a high-risk, high-reward call – deviating from Duke here is what could win the bracket challenge if Duke indeed falls. We’re banking on Houston’s experience, defense, and yes, maybe a bit of Texas crowd mojo, to carry them into the title game. (If you think Duke’s talent wins out, by all means stick with Duke – but then you’ll need to differentiate elsewhere. We like making our stand here.)
National Championship 2025: (W) Florida vs. (M) Houston
It all comes down to this! Our title game features the Florida Gators vs. the Houston Cougars – a showdown between a premier offense and a premier defense, with each team capable on the opposite end as well.
How do they match up? Florida will have the best individual player on the floor in Walter Clayton Jr., a dynamic guard who can create his own shot and facilitate for others. But Houston will counter with perhaps the better collective unit and certainly the more experienced coach in Kelvin Sampson.
The Cougars will have also played in this same dome just two days prior, whereas Florida is coming from a different site (though teams usually adjust fine by the Final Four weekend).
Keys for Florida: Push the tempo when possible, use their bigs to battle Houston on the boards, and take care of the ball. Florida has been excellent in limiting turnovers all year, and that must continue against Houston’s ball-hawking defense. Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh will need to win his matchup inside – Houston doesn’t have a 7-footer like some teams, but they have strong, aggressive forwards who will try to front them and deny entry passes. If Florida’s outside shooters (e.g., wing Will Richard or others) can hit a few threes early, that could open things up.
Keys for Houston: Dictate the style – a half-court game in the 60s or low 70s favors Houston. They’ll want to make every Florida possession a grind. Houston’s guards must contain Clayton Jr. and prevent him from penetrating at will. Offensively, Houston should crash the offensive glass; even though Florida has size, second-chance points could tilt the scales. Also, Houston’s free-throw shooting and late-game execution will be critical – in a tight championship environment, those little things matter. In terms of efficiency, this is #1 offense (Florida) vs #1 defense (Houston) from the metrics.
Often in title games, defense has prevailed (think 2019 Virginia with defense and clutch shooting, 2021 Baylor out-defending Gonzaga, etc.). Both programs have championship pedigree of sorts – Florida won back-to-back titles in 2006-07, while Houston is seeking its first championship (they came close in the 1980s Phi Slama Jama era).
Motivation will be sky-high for both. At this stage, picking the champion is also a strategic play. If our bracket got this far with Houston and Florida, many entrants might lean Duke or another team to win it all. Houston, despite being a 1-seed, could be a slightly under-the-radar champion pick compared to a blue blood like Duke or a flashy team like Florida.
That means if we nail Houston as the champ, we have a great shot to win the pool. And we genuinely believe they have the goods to do it. Houston’s senior-laden team, with that lockdown defense and newfound shooting touch, feels like the kind of group that cuts down the nets. They’ve been knocking on the door for years; 2025 might be their time.
Pick: Houston Cougars – National Champions. In our bracket, Houston completes the job and wins the title, perhaps in a gritty game, something like 72-67. The Cougars slow Florida’s offense just enough and make key plays in crunch time (don’t forget, Houston has been in a lot of close games and plays with poise). Clayton Jr. will get his points, but Houston’s perimeter defense can limit the other Gators. On the other end, Houston’s balanced scoring (they might have 4 players in double figures) and ability to hit timely 3’s breaks down a solid Florida defense. It won’t be easy – Florida is as legit as they come – but in a one-game scenario, we lean toward the more battle-hardened defense to prevail. Cutting against the grain by not picking the trendy Duke or the explosive Florida and instead choosing Houston gives us a strong chance to leapfrog those who do. And given Houston’s top-10 ranks on both offense and defense, this is hardly a shot in the dark – they fit the profile of a champion.
Second Chance Bracket Strategy (2025)
This bracket balances sound logic with a few strategic gambles. We rode powerhouse teams like Duke, Florida, and Houston deep into the tournament (since later rounds score the most points) while also making calculated upset picks (Michigan over Auburn, Arkansas over Texas Tech, Houston over Duke) to differentiate our entry.
The result is a bracket that isn’t afraid to buck the consensus in key spots in order to maximize the probability of winning the pool. If these predictions pan out, you’ll be in prime position to take down ESPN’s Second Chance Bracket Challenge. Good luck, and enjoy the Madness.
Summary of Picks:
Championship: Houston over Florida (Houston cuts down the nets)
Final Four: Duke, Florida, Michigan State, Houston
Elite Eight: Duke, Alabama; Florida, Arkansas; Michigan, Michigan State; Houston, Tennessee.
References:
CBS Sports: "2025 NCAA Tournament bracket: Scouting each team in the Sweet 16 as March Madness rolls on"
Sports Illustrated: "2025 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16: Updated matchups, schedule, game times"