2024 NFL MVP Race: Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen - All-Pro Twist, Odds, Predictions
Allen was heavy favorite to win the 2024 NFL MVP for most of the year... odds instantly shifted when Jackson was named AP First-Team All-Pro
Last weekend the top 2 NFL MVP candidates for 2024 faced off: Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) in a highly competitive bout, landing the Bills a home win 27-25 (and perfect home record for the 2024-2025 season)… would’ve gone OT had Mark Andrews secured the final 2-PT conversion (sloppy weather likely a factor).
I hadn’t checked the NFL MVP race since early January when Josh Allen was a heavy favorite (~82%) vs. Jackson (~16%) and assumed that Allen would likely win 2024 MVP based on a combo of: record, betting odds, media sentiment, narrative (lacking star-power & losing key pieces), and never winning before (Jackson won 2 recently… possible voter fatigue).
Though signs suggested Allen would likely win, I made the case for Lamar Jackson as 2024 NFL MVP. I thought he was the best player and should not be downgraded as a result of his: surrounding talent, prior 2 MVPs, or slightly worse record.
On Jan 10th, Jackson was named AP’s 2024 NFL First Team All-Pro QB (Allen was second-team). The historical rate (1970-2023) of First Team All-Pro QBs winning MVP is ~64.82% and the modern era rate (last 10-15 years) is ~90-100%.
The last time a player was named AP NFL First Team All-Pro QB but failed to win the MVP was Peyton Manning 2012 (Adrian Peterson won the award). And the last time a player was named AP NFL First Team All-Pro QB but lost MVP to another QB was 1987 (All-Pro: Joe Montana vs. MVP: John Elway).
The reason it’s so uncommon for these to differ is that the exact same 50 AP voters who select First Team All-Pro QB also vote for the MVP.
This is why Polymarket odds abruptly tanked for Allen (~25% dog) and surged for Jackson (~73% favorite) on Jan 10th (post AP 1st Team All-Pro QB reveal). Odds have shifted a bit since this adjustment (Allen ~38% vs. Jackson ~61%).
It is still possible that AP voters might view things for 2024 as follows: (1) throw Jackson a bone (First Team All Pro QB) for his statistically elite season & (2) give Allen the MVP for his better record, overcoming more adversity, etc.
While historically rare, an outcome like this wouldn’t surprise me this season… so I wouldn’t bet on a winner. It all comes down to whether a bulk of the 50 AP voters think there is any meaningful differentiating criteria between First-Team All-Pro and MVP.
The 2024 NFL MVP Race: Ebbs & Flows
Throughout September and October, the MVP odds swung modestly between Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) and Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens).
1. Early-Season Momentum Swings
Lamar’s Hot Start (Weeks 1–3)
Weeks 1–3: Lamar’s rushing prowess immediately grabbed headlines (e.g., 122 rushing yards in Week 1 vs. Kansas City). Although the Ravens lost two of their first three games, Lamar’s big rushing totals and efficient passing (including a near 80% completion game in Week 3) positioned him as an MVP frontrunner in many early discussions.
Narrative Factor: Pundits emphasized Lamar’s continued evolution as a passer while still producing video-game-level rushing stats. Early lines began favoring Lamar in the top 2–3 candidates for MVP.
Allen’s Steady but Less Spectacular Start (Weeks 1–3)
Weeks 1–3: Allen opened strongly with high efficiency (78.3% completions in Week 1) and a few highlight rushing TDs. However, he had two relatively quiet games—one by design (Week 2 vs. Miami) and a blowout win in Week 3 vs. Jacksonville—meaning fewer gaudy passing numbers than Lamar.
Impact on Odds: While Allen was recognized as a contender, Lamar’s early-season explosiveness (especially on the ground) garnered more media buzz. Allen’s odds hovered in the second tier behind Lamar and possibly a couple of other big-name QBs.
2. Mid-Season Fluctuations
Lamar’s Statistical Domination (Weeks 4–10)
Week 4: Lamar destroyed Buffalo (35–10 win), notching 3 total TDs (2 passing, 1 rushing), which created a direct comparison overshadowing Allen (who struggled that game).
Weeks 5–7: Lamar posted a 4-TD passing game against Cincinnati (Week 5) and a career-best 5-TD outing against Tampa Bay (Week 7). These performances catapulted him to the top of most MVP leaderboards.
Week 9 & 10: Back-to-back games with 3+ passing TDs (Denver and Cincinnati) reaffirmed his lead in raw passing stats. By this point, many sports books had Lamar as the clear favorite (some with implied MVP probabilities near 50% or higher).
Allen’s Ups & Downs (Weeks 4–10)
Week 4: Allen’s struggles in the head-to-head matchup with Lamar (zero TDs in a blowout loss) hurt his MVP case.
Week 5: A 30% completion performance in a narrow loss to Houston further damaged his odds; many started questioning Allen’s consistency.
Weeks 6–9: Allen rebounded with solid outings (especially a 3-TD game vs. Miami in Week 9), closing the gap. By Week 10 (@ Colts), he did throw 2 INTs, but the Bills still won, and Allen’s rushing TD partly redeemed the performance.
Odds Trend: Allen’s MVP probability dipped during Weeks 4–5 but climbed back slightly after each win. Still, through Week 10, Lamar’s statistical lead—especially in passer rating and total TDs—kept him ahead in most discussions.
3. Lamar Maintains Edge, Media Quiet (Weeks 7–12)
Despite continuing to post elite numbers:
High Passer Rating, Low INTs: Lamar hovered near a 40:4 TD–INT ratio by the end of Week 12.
Overshadowed by Henry and Others: Derrick Henry’s rushing milestones and a bit less national media fanfare for the Ravens caused some watchers to question whether Lamar was getting the same spotlight.
Betting Odds: Lamar still had a sizable share of MVP odds (somewhere around 40–50%) heading into December, but the next phase—Allen’s December explosion—would shift the narrative dramatically.
4. Allen’s December Explosion (Weeks 13–16)
Weeks 13 & 14: Record-Setting Performances
Week 13 (@ 49ers): Allen showed near-perfect efficiency, throwing for 2 TDs and rushing for another in a decisive win. Although modest yardage totals, his Red Zone dominance was clear.
Week 14 (vs. Rams): A 6-TD game (3 passing, 3 rushing) became one of the season’s top highlight reels. This turned heads nationally—Allen not only accounted for massive yardage (342 passing, 82 rushing) but showcased historic dual-threat feats that few QBs have ever matched.
Week 15: High-Scoring Win Over Detroit
48–42 Victory: Allen threw for 362 yards, 2 TDs, and tacked on 2 more rushing scores. Coming off the Rams game, it solidified the perception that he was unstoppable in big, high-scoring matchups.
Impact on MVP Race
Public & Media Narrative: With back-to-back monstrous outings, Allen’s implied MVP probabilities skyrocketed—jumping to the 60–70% range within just two weeks.
Clean Football: He reduced interceptions in December and consistently converted in the red zone, fueling the idea that he was carrying the Bills (amid injuries to receivers) to a 13–4 record.
5. Late-Season Comparisons: The Final Shift (Weeks 17–18)
Lamar’s Continued Excellence but Quieter Spotlight
Weeks 15–18: Lamar posted another 5-TD game vs. the Giants (Week 15) and broke Michael Vick’s career rushing record. Statistically, he remained on fire (still leading in passer rating by season’s end).
Media Perception: Yet, these achievements happened alongside Allen’s highlight-factory games in December. Some believed Lamar’s consistent brilliance was overshadowed by Buffalo’s “wow factor” wins.
Allen Solidifies Betting Lead
Week 16 & 17: Although Allen’s numbers cooled slightly (e.g., only 1 TD pass in Week 16), the Bills kept winning. By Week 17, he logged another 3 total TDs. The team success plus personal heroics narrative carried him into the final week with MVP odds in the 70–80% range.
Sitting Out Week 18: With the Bills locked into playoff seeding, Allen’s regular season ended on a high note—no final-week slump or risk of a bad game.
Why the Odds Fluctuations? How Allen Became the Betting Favorite vs. Lamar…
Head-to-Head Games and Timing: Lamar dominated Allen’s Bills in Week 4, temporarily placing Lamar in front. However, by December, Allen strung together consecutive statement wins—particularly on national stages—shifting momentum dramatically.
Highlight Performances vs. Consistent Excellence: Lamar’s efficiency and dual-threat prowess were consistent all year, but Allen’s monster multi-TD games in December created huge media waves. Voters often sway toward peak moments late in the season.
Team Context and Narrative: Allen was credited for “keeping Buffalo afloat” amid injuries, especially at receiver, and for pulling out tight, high-scoring victories (e.g., vs. Detroit). Lamar’s success, while undeniable, was partially overshadowed by other storylines (Henry’s rushing feats, the Ravens’ up-and-down record, etc.).
Interceptions & Red Zone Efficiency: Lamar’s low INT total was impressive, but Allen’s near-flawless December (few turnovers, massive red-zone success) fed a narrative of unstoppable momentum—exactly when MVP talk hits its peak.
December Momentum in Betting Markets: Betting lines typically react to big, memorable performances. Allen’s multi-TD rampage from Weeks 14–15 sent his implied odds soaring (from ~40–50% into the 60–80% territory).
Timing of Media Coverage: As the season neared its conclusion, more national prime-time coverage focused on Allen’s highlight plays. These late surges often weigh heavily on MVP voting.
In short, the MVP race fluctuated largely due to:
High-impact, prime-time performances driving media and betting sentiment.
Narrative-driven context—who was “carrying” their team more effectively.
The timing of big statistical outputs—with Allen’s colossal December overshadowing Lamar’s steady brilliance, ultimately tipping the scales toward Allen as the season ended.
AP 2024 NFL First-Team All-Pro QB: Flipping the Script
Many were clearly banking on Allen winning the MVP until the AP (Associated Press) announced their selection for AP’s 2024 NFL First-Team All-Pro - with Lamar Jackson getting First-Team QB (Allen as the Second-Team selection).
Jackson Named All-Pro QB
Despite Allen’s end-of-season surge, the final tally for First-Team All-Pro QB went to Lamar Jackson. Reports indicated ~30 votes for Jackson, ~18 for Allen (with a few votes for others).
Historically, if a QB is first-team AP All-Pro, that highly correlates to that same QB winning MVP—if a QB is indeed the MVP that year. Exceptions are extremely rare.
PFWA All-NFL
Similarly, the PFWA (Professional Football Writers of America)—some of whom also have AP votes—named Lamar as their top QB in the 2024 PFWA’s 2024 All-NFL Team. Another major sign that many high-profile voters favored him over Allen.
Markets Immediately Flip
The AP First-Team All-Pro announcement stunned many bettors, as Allen had been the pronounced fav @ ~70–80%.
Polymarket lines jolted in Lamar’s favor—somewhere around 70% or more. Observers cited the near-ironclad historical rule that “All-Pro QB = MVP in a QB season.”
How is the 2024 NFL MVP Award Determined?
The 2024 NFL MVP Award is determined by a selection of 50 media members (the specific members change each year) - such as national beat writers, analysts, etc.
Since the same 50 media members select AP’s 2024 All-Pro Team (and Jackson was First-Team All-Pro), many logically assume that Jackson should win 2024 MVP… a difference would indicate distinct criteria for “best player” vs. “MVP” (this could happen though).
AP Voting Panel (50 Media Members)
The Associated Press employs 50 selected media members—national beat writers, analysts, etc.—for all major awards: MVP, Offensive & Defensive Players of the Year, Rookies of the Year, etc.
Crucially, these same 50 people also determine AP All-Pro Teams.
Voting Deadline
All ballots (MVP, All-Pro, etc.) were submitted by the end of the regular season. For 2024, that date was January 9 (some variations might exist depending on scheduling, but essentially it’s all locked in before playoffs).
No playoff performance can affect the MVP outcome.
MVP’s New Points System (Since 2022)
Each voter ranks 5 players for MVP. First place = 10 points, second = 5, third = 3, fourth = 2, fifth = 1. (This voting system was introduced in 2022).
In theory, a QB could lead the first-place votes but still lose if second-place votes are distributed in a particular way. Ties, though rare, have happened historically (e.g., 1997, 2003).
Could Josh Allen still win the 2024 MVP?
Yes. The AP announced the 2024 NFL MVP Finalists on Jan 23, 2025 as follows (alphabetical order by last name):
Josh Allen
Saquon Barkley
Joe Burrow
Jared Goff
Lamar Jackson
This is exactly who my top 5 finalists would be too. Although it is historically uncommon for a player to win the MVP without being named First-Team All-Pro - it has happened.
For the past 11 seasons (2013-2023) the same winner of First-Team All-Pro also won the MVP (Manning, Rodgers, Newton, Ryan, Brady, Mahomes, Jackson, Rodgers, Rodgers, Mahomes, Jackson) - 100% hit rate over the past decade.
The last time there was a discrepancy was 2012: Manning won All-Pro QB (First-Team) and Adrian Peterson (RB) won the MVP with 2,097 rush yards. Prior to that LaDanian Tomlinson (RB) won MVP and Brees won All-Pro First-Team QB.
So evidence suggests that a running back (RB) is more likely to steal the MVP thunder from First-Team All-Pro QB than another QB… this year that could end up being Saquon Barkley (carried the Eagles offense much of the year).
Saquon racked up 2,005 yards and 13 TDs on 345 total attempts - leading the Eagles to first-place in the NFC (14-3 record). Most still think the race is between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson (this is logical).
If Josh Allen wins the MVP it is likely due to voters’ subjective/psychological perception of what constitutes the “MVP.” They may think that Allen was more valuable than Jackson this season (given the adversity and fewer weapons). This is reasonable, so it wouldn’t stun me if Allen still wins MVP (despite odds flipping Jackson).
Reasons Allen might still win MVP…
1. Straw Poll (December 12, 2024)
Dave Birkett stated that the Detroit Free Press polled 12 MVP voters, allegedly revealing a 10–2 edge for Allen. There was still plenty of season left though, but Allen crushed it in December.
This indicated a strong pro-Allen bloc among the same 50 AP members, possibly weighting “value” or intangible leadership more than pure pass-run dominance.
2. Voter Fatigue
Lamar is going for a third MVP (already has 2019 and 2023). Some borderline voters might prefer awarding Allen his first if they see a small margin.
This is the key intangible that could cause a chunk of All-Pro supporters to pivot away for MVP or vice versa.
3. Tie-Break
If the final MVP vote ends in a tie on total points, some betting markets (like Polymarket) have a specific alphabetical rule awarding “Allen” > “Jackson.” Ties, though historically rare, are not impossible (see 1997, 2003 for co-MVPs).
Rare Precedent: 1987 Montana vs. Elway
1987 is the most recent case where a first-team All-Pro QB ended up not winning MVP and losing to another QB.
Joe Montana was All-Pro, while John Elway took the MVP.
This was a strike-shortened, irregular year, but it stands as proof that such a mismatch can happen (albeit rarely).
That example sets the upper bound for “Allen might still upset Lamar” talk, but we’re dealing with a once-in-decades scenario.
Cases before this (QB wins All-Pro loses MVP to another QB) were: 1978 (Bradshaw MVP vs. Staubach All-Pro), 1976 (Bert Jones MVP vs. Ken Stabler All-Pro), 1975 (Fran Tarkenton MVP vs. Ken Anderson All-Pro).
Betting Odds (January 2025): Any Edge?
Market Lines After AP All-Pro
Lamar soared near 70–80% immediately post-announcement, only to settle around 60–65% after rumors of straw polls and “last-minute flips.”
Pure Probability
Summing up everything: a majority of AP voters labeled Lamar the “best QB.” Usually that would push him ~80–90% for MVP.
But the rumored partial poll favoring Allen and “fresh face” factor reduce that.
A balanced estimate might be Lamar ~60–70% vs. Allen ~30–40%.
Any Edge?
If you see Lamar significantly >70%, you’d buy him at 60–65%.
If you think Allen is ~45–50% (trusting the straw poll strongly), you’d back him at 35–40%.
Realistically, the margin is small, so neither side is a monstrous +EV.
Chris Simms “Slip”?
Former QB Chris Simms referred to Lamar as a “three-time MVP” in a TV rant, leading some to speculate that its a hint or he knows something through NFL circles. (Freudian slip? Or just a random mistake?)
I wouldn’t put too much into this… could have easily been an accidental hiccup rather than leaking info. It’s also possible Simms thinks Jackson will win but doesn’t actually know the full vote.
My take: Not something I’d bet on. Generally the 1st Team All-Pro QB easily claims the MVP award (this indicates Jackson), but there’s a non-trivial chance of an upset from Allen. Since we don’t know which specific media members have the votes, it’s tough to determine.
Final Take: High Drama, Limited Certainty
The 2024 NFL MVP showdown between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson has delivered some of the biggest swings in recent memory.
Tight Start → Allen surges in December, finishing the regular season as a ~70–80% favorite on January 5.
All-Pro Reveal: Lamar is named First-Team AP QB (and PFWA All-NFL). Historically, that’s nearly a guarantee—since 1987 is the only modern example of a first-team All-Pro QB losing MVP to another QB.
Straw Poll Rumors: A 12-voter sample favored Allen 10–2, fueling speculation that enough AP voters might differentiate between “best QB performance” (All-Pro) and “most valuable QB” (MVP)—especially with Lamar chasing a 3rd MVP so soon.
Locked Ballots: All 50 votes were due by January 9, unaffected by playoff performances. The results will be unveiled at NFL Honors on February 6.
January Betting Market: Lamar ~60–65%, Allen ~35–40%. A tie in total points is improbable but would go to Allen on Polymarket’s alphabetical tiebreak.
In short, this has gotta be one of the least predictable MVP finishes in decades—Allen banked on intangible “value” momentum, while Lamar has near-historic stats and the coveted All-Pro label.
The 1987 Montana–Elway mismatch looms as a reminder that even improbable outcomes happen. Ultimately, while Lamar is a favorite, the final ballots remain sealed, ensuring maximum suspense in the lead‐up to the NFL Honors.
When is the 2024 NFL MVP Announced?
On February 6, 2025 the NFL Honors will reveal which of these two star quarterbacks the 50 AP voters crowned as MVP.
The unique 2024 season saw Josh Allen open as a favorite near 73% by the regular season’s end, only for Lamar Jackson to surge after All-Pro and PFWA distinctions.
Today, with Lamar ~60–65% and Allen ~35–40% at Polymarket, any real “alpha” rests on your personal read of the contradictory All-Pro synergy versus a rumored voter shift. (Unless you have insider info.)
It’s one of the tightest and most drama-filled MVP races in recent memory.