2024 NFL MVP Prediction: Josh Allen Wins Over Lamar Jackson
Although Lamar Jackson was statistically the best (followed by Burrow), Allen is a machine that carried a weaker team to #2 in the AFC
This year Josh Allen is my prediction to win NFL MVP… he’ll likely win and I have zero issue with that even if Lamar Jackson was objectively the best player.
The QB position is the most important and impactful position in the NFL, particularly with modern rules that favor offensive production, protect the QB, and make it difficult to play defense.
I’ve always been a fan of Josh Allen and think he’s an elite talent at QB. Allen lost both his #1 WR Diggs and #2 WR Gabe Davis in the offseason… and the Bills still: finished with a perfect 8-0 home record, a 13-4 overall record, won the AFC East, and secured the #2 playoff seed in the AFC.
The Bills also defeated both #1 seeds this year: KC Chiefs (30-21 in BUF) and the Detroit Lions (48-42 in DET)… showing that Allen can elevate his team against the highest level competition.
Allen had to overcome a subpar defense, ranking in the bottom-half of NFL teams (#17 in ypg allowed). Still a bit better than the likes of the Lions (riddled with injuries) and Bengals (atrocious), but a far cry from the Eagles, Chiefs, and Ravens.
Considering the Bills offense had to rely on Allen’s athleticism, decision-making, and leadership with a massively retooled receiving corps (Shakir: 821 yds, Coleman: 556 yds, Hollins: 378 yds) – it’s logical to predict that Allen will win the 2024 NFL MVP… betting odds reflect this (~77% chance).
What variables will the NFL MVP voters consider (2024)?
Below is an approximate ranking of the top factors that actual MVP voters (the Associated Press panel, influential media members, etc.) are most likely using in 2024 to determine their votes.
This is not a purely objective perspective but rather what truly influences the MVP electorate.
1. Team Success & Seeding (Weight ~ 30–35%)
Reasoning
Historically, the MVP almost always comes from a top-seeded or at least top-three-seeded team, especially at quarterback.
Voters look at overall record, whether the team locked up the division, and how crucial that QB (or other player) was to maintaining a high win total.
Example
Josh Allen’s candidacy is boosted by Buffalo securing the AFC’s #2 seed.
Joe Burrow’s near-league-leading passing totals suffer because Cincinnati failed to make the playoffs.
2. Narrative & Perceived “Value” (Weight ~ 25–30%)
Reasoning
Voters emphasize “How would this team fare without him?”
They love “overcoming adversity” stories: rosters with fewer Pro Bowlers, missing key skill players, big prime-time heroics, etc.
This intangible “wow factor” often tips close races.
Example
Allen is seen as carrying a less-talented roster.
Lamar Jackson already has two MVPs, so the narrative is “been there, done that,” hurting his case.
If a QB overcame injuries or lost star teammates and still thrived, that resonates.
3. Cumulative Stats (Weight ~ 20–25%)
Reasoning
Total yardage and total touchdowns—particularly for QBs—are still the quick reference points.
The “X passing yards” + “Y total TD” lines quickly show how prolific a season was.
However, pure volume stats can be overshadowed by seeding and “wow” moments if multiple candidates are close.
Example
Joe Burrow’s 4,918 yards / 43 pass TD headline.
Josh Allen’s ~40 total TD plus ~3,700 pass yards, ~500+ rush yards.
Lamar Jackson’s 4,000+ passing and ~900 rushing yard feat.
4. Efficiency & Turnovers (Weight ~ 15–20%)
Reasoning
Voters do take note of interception totals, completion percentages, passer rating, or near-historic pass-run combos.
But these advanced or per-play stats are typically secondary for many AP voters behind team success/narrative.
If there’s a tie in raw production, lower INT or high passer rating can be a tiebreaker.
Example
Lamar’s 41:4 TD–INT ratio is monumental, giving him a near-perfect passer rating.
Allen’s single-digit INT total (6) is also a big selling point.
But if one QB has better efficiency but the other leads a top seed, the seed tends to win out.
5. Head-to-Head & Prime-Time Moments (Weight ~ 5–10%)
Reasoning
Voters love highlight reels and signature wins.
They remember Sunday or Monday night matchups, plus direct showdowns between MVP contenders.
This factor is smaller overall, but can tip the scale in a close race.
Example
Allen’s highlight TD run vs. the Chiefs, or the “snow lateral” TD that dominated national coverage.
Lamar’s late-season blowouts or prime-time feats (e.g., a record night vs. the Giants).
If a candidate’s big game happened recently, “recency bias” can also bolster final votes.
6. Voter Fatigue & Prior Wins (Weight ~ 5%)
Reasoning
Not an official category, but a real phenomenon: if a player just won an MVP, voters subconsciously look for a new face.
Also influences how “close” a race can be—previous MVP winners must often be leaps ahead to overcome the “we want variety” vibe.
Example
Lamar Jackson has 2 MVPs; the media often references “he’s done it before,” hurting his 2024 candidacy.
Allen’s never won, so many voters are comfortable giving him the nod if it’s borderline.
Summary of Estimated Weights
Team Success & Seeding (30–35%)
Narrative / Perceived Value (25–30%)
Cumulative Stats (20–25%)
Efficiency & Turnovers (15–20%)
Head-to-Head & Prime-Time Moments (5–10%)
Voter Fatigue / Past MVPs (5%)
The sum can exceed 100% because these factors overlap and vary by voter. But roughly, team record and narrative remain the top two priorities, followed by raw yardage/TD, then advanced or per-play stats, plus big prime-time highlights and the intangible “has he won recently?” question.
This is how real-life MVP voters likely weigh things in 2024—even if it’s not the purely objective “best QB season” measure.
Why Josh Allen Wins the 2024 NFL MVP
1. He Elevated a “Reset” Roster to the #2 Seed
Expectations Were Low: Before the season, many analysts predicted Buffalo to miss the playoffs or finish behind the Dolphins/Jets in the AFC East. Diggs and Davis departed, multiple captains on defense were gone, and the offensive roster saw major turnover.
Outcome: Allen still steered the Bills to a 13–4 record and the AFC’s No. 2 seed (locking it up early), despite having one of the league’s least “star-studded” supporting casts (only two Pro Bowlers).
Implication: Voters typically weigh “value to the team” heavily. Allen’s ability to drag a roster short on top-tier talent to a division title and second seed is huge for MVP considerations.
2. Historic Offensive Efficiency (3 Points per Drive)
3.0 Points per Offensive Drive: A major advanced metric reveals that the Bills averaged about 3.0 points on each drive Allen led—top 5 in NFL history (along with the 2007 Patriots, 2018 Chiefs, and 2020 Packers).
None of those other squads lacked a 1,000-yard receiver and 1,000-yard rusher like Buffalo did.
Why It Matters: This stat encapsulates that, on a per-possession basis, the offense was historically effective because of Allen. Failing to have a “true #1” wide receiver or 1,000-yard back underscores how central Allen was in sustaining drives.
3. “Moments” in Prime-Time & Key Wins
Beating the No. 1 Seeds: Buffalo is the only team that defeated both the top-seeded Chiefs (AFC) and Lions (NFC) in the regular season. Allen’s signature 26-yard TD run on 4th-and-2 sealed the upset in Kansas City and remains one of the league’s iconic plays this year.
Highlight Reel Showcases: Whether it’s the “Lake Effect Lateral” (the pass-lateral-run TD vs. SF in the snow) or leading a 48-point explosion over the Lions, Allen repeatedly provided must-see TV. These big, memorable moments carry disproportionate weight for MVP voting.
4. Statistical Resume: 40+ TD, 6 INT, + Minimal Sacks
Total TD: Allen accounted for ~40 total touchdowns (28 pass, 12 rush). That’s massive, especially given Buffalo’s unheralded skill group.
6 Interceptions: Easily the fewest of his career. He vastly reduced turnovers while maintaining aggression.
Sack Avoidance: Allen was sacked just 14 times, the league’s lowest among top QBs—despite no All-Pro lineman. It shows quick decision-making, pocket awareness, and scrambles.
Historic Markers: 3rd straight year with 35+ total TD and under 10 INT—rare in NFL history. Became the first QB ever with multiple passing + receiving + rushing TDs in consecutive games.
5. Advanced “Value” Metrics
Expected Points Added (EPA): Although exact figures aren’t widely public, multiple advanced analytics sites (PFF, rbsdm.com) show Allen near the top in EPA/play. Buffalo’s offensive success leans heavily on him.
“No Other Star” Factor: Allen lacks a Pro Bowl skill player outside TE Dawson Knox (who is borderline) and overshadowed by other TEs in the AFC.
Pro Bowl Representation: The Bills have two Pro Bowlers total; the Ravens had nine. That’s a major talking point among MVP voters: “Allen is doing more with less.”
Estimated Odds (2024 NFL MVP): ~70–75% Allen Wins
While published betting lines might pin him around -300 to -470 (~75–81% implied), my own assessment—considering both the stats and the massive narrative momentum—puts him at a comfortable 70–75% chance.
Reasoning: Although Lamar Jackson’s numbers are arguably even more impressive in certain categories, the “fresh face” factor, mainstream media endorsement, and prime-time highlights push Allen well ahead in perceived “value.” Lamar also has prior MVPs (2), which historically hurts repeat chances unless he’s untouchably better.
2024 NFL MVP Runner-Up: Lamar Jackson
Why He’s 2nd (~25–30% Chance)
Jaw-Dropping Stats: 4,172 pass yards, 41 pass TD, only 4 INT, plus ~900 rush yards. That’s borderline historic. Highest passer rating (~119.6) in the league, fueling any pure stats-based argument.
“Voter Fatigue”: Jackson owns 2 recent MVPs (2019, 2023). Rarely does a QB rack up three so quickly unless it’s an undeniably unstoppable season.
Less “Adversity” Narrative: Right or wrong, some voters see Derrick Henry’s 2,000 scrimmage yards, Mark Andrews, a top-10 defense, etc. They interpret this as Lamar having “more help,” diminishing his “value” narrative.
Media Leaning Allen: Many prominent analysts say “Allen overcame more,” “He beat both #1 seeds,” or “Buffalo’s supporting cast is limited.” That argument is overshadowing Lamar’s raw statistical dominance in certain segments of sports media.
Takeaway: Jackson’s ~25–30% chance sits well behind Allen in public/voter sentiment. He remains a credible #2, but the momentum heavily favors Allen for the award.
Others in the NFL MVP Discussion (2024)
#3) Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Why He’s Third
Passing Volume: Led the league in passing yards (~4,918) and pass TD (43). Purely as a passer, he might top the chart in yardage.
Team Record/Playoffs: The Bengals missed the postseason at 9–8. Historically, MVPs almost always come from top-seeded teams, or at least strong playoff contenders.
Odds: +1,400 to +3,000. ~3–5% implied probability. Some love his stats, but lacking a postseason berth severely hampers his real chance.
#4) Saquon Barkley (Philadelphia Eagles)
Why He’s a Massive Long Shot
2,000 Rushing Yards: Only the ninth RB to achieve it—rare and impressive.
Positional Bias: A non-QB last won MVP in 2012 (Adrian Peterson). Barkley would need to break Eric Dickerson’s record for an award many treat as a QB race.
Odds: ~+5,000 to +8,000. Less than ~2% implied probability. Unless he’d shattered the 2,105-yard mark, voters are too QB-focused to pick him.
#5) Jared Goff (Detroit Lions)
Why He’s Fifth
Elite Efficiency: 72.4% completion, 8.6 Y/A—some of the best in the NFL.
Fewer Total TD & Less Hype: 37 passing TD, no rushing yards, overshadowed by Allen/Jackson’s highlight reels.
Odds: Very long (~+10,000 or further). Even though the Lions had a superb year (15–2), Goff’s lower raw TD total and less dramatic storyline hamper him in the voter mindshare.
Would it be smart to bet on Josh Allen?
Disclaimer: Nothing here is financial, investment, or gambling advice.
Maybe. Betting ~1% of one’s bankroll is a reasonable wager if doing it for entertainment value (EV)… By my conservative estimates nobody is getting an “edge” by betting on Josh Allen to win 2024 NFL MVP in January 2025.
I estimate that Allen has a ~70-75% chance of winning MVP (which is significant) but betting odds suggest he has a 77% chance to win it… so there isn’t a major mismatch for “smart money” or value.
If we followed the Kelly Criterion, we would probably avoid betting entirely.
If you had insider information (e.g. knew how many within the AP planned to vote) you could give yourself an edge… but we don’t have this.
My final prediction is that Josh Allen wins… but we should consider a surprise )(~25% odds) as Jackson finished with 41 TD, 4 INT, 900 rush yards and objectively the best stats.