Triple Lens Strategy for Bitcoin & Crypto Cycles: Indicators, Timing, Price Action
This strategy takes into account on-chain/off-chain indicators, timing, and price action
Many macro traders use a combination of historically reliable indicators (on-chain & off-chain) to determine ideal times to enter or exit positions in major cryptocurrencies (e.g. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, altcoins, etc.).
More conservative traders examine mean & median historical cycle durations - and factor in time-in-cycle (i.e. how many months we’ve been in an upward trajectory or in a specific stage of the bull run).
Ultra-conservative traders may consider price action such that if a cryptocurrency doubles in price, they sell a certain amount (e.g. 50%) to derisk - regardless of whether indicators are saying we are far from the peak and/or time-in-cycle suggests we have many months to go.
I think it’s probably ideal to employ (or consider) a triple lens strategy wherein we factor in:
Indicators (on-chain & off-chain): Things like MVRV-Z score, Puell Multiple, NUPL, inflation, M2, rate cuts, economic health, etc.
Time-in-cycle (considering historical data): Where are we in this cycle relative to historical data.
Price action (consider derisking at certain targets): Take profits at certain price targets (e.g. 25% when doubles, 35% when triples, 45% when quadruples) to de-risk because indicators and/or time-in-cycle may be inaccurate for any given cycle.
Disclaimer: None of this is financial or investment advice.
Triple Lens Strategy (Overview)
The objective is to maximize returns while mitigating risk using a combination of indicators, time-in-cycle, and price action.
1. Weighting & Hierarchy
It’s useful to think of these three dimensions as tiers in a decision-making process.
You are free to weight each of these however you see fit based on what you think is optimal, backtesting, and/or your own risk tolerance.
The assigned weights may be ideal for the “average” investor - but we are all different… it’s up to you to decide what best suits your preferences.
A.) On-Chain/Off-Chain Indicators (50% weight)
These are your most direct measure of market health and sentiment. If they strongly suggest mania or capitulation, they can override time or price-based rules.
Example on-chain metrics: MVRV-Z, SOPR, Puell Multiple, stablecoin inflows, whale distribution/accumulation, exchange reserves.
Example off-chain metrics: ETF inflows, macro environment (Fed policy, interest rates, Trump administration policy stances), regulatory climate, mainstream coverage (media hype, Google Trends, App store rankings).
Why 50%? Because even if price targets and historical timing suggest “wait for more upside,” if mania signals are red-hot, you do not want to miss the top. Conversely, if panic signals are triggered, you might buy earlier or hold through a time-based pivot.
B.) Time in Cycle (30% weight)
The halving-based cyclical pattern is well-documented (accumulation/pre-halving → having year’s slow rally → post-halving mania → midterm year crash).
Typically, mania peaks appear in Q4 of the post-halving year, with a smaller probability of earlier/later peaking. You can use that knowledge to calibrate your expectations about how long the bull run might last.
Why 30%? Because time provides context for when on-chain/off-chain metrics are most accurate. E.g., mania signals in the early post-halving year might be incomplete or “mid-cycle,” whereas mania signals in Q4 are more credible for an ultimate blow-off top.
C.) Price-Based Milestones (20% weight)
Use specific price triggers to maintain discipline and avoid emotional decision-making. Milestones like “sell 25–50% once I have a 2× from cost basis” ensure you always lock in profit.
Why 20%? Price is important but can be misleading (e.g., an early double might still only be mid-cycle if on-chain says mania is nowhere near). Or in mania, you could get 3×–4× from your entry. Strictly selling all at 2× leaves money on the table.
That said, a partial scale-out at certain price thresholds is a reliable safety measure.
Rationale for the Weightings
Indicators are your real-time fundamental status. They get the highest weight (50%).
Time is next because typical cycle patterns often determine when indicators are most reliable or ephemeral.
Price ensures you have baseline guardrails (no matter what, you lock in some gains if it doubles) but shouldn’t overrule strong signals or well-known time patterns.
2. Layering the Lenses (Dimensions)
Think of a layered approach:
Primary Filter – On/Off-Chain Health:
Track mania or capitulation signals.
If mania signals are extremely high (Fear & Greed Index 90+, exchange app hits #1, MVRV-Z extremely hot, stablecoin mania, mainstream euphoria) → prioritize scaling out soon, even if time suggests you might not be near the cycle’s “typical top.”
If capitulation signals appear mid-bull (e.g., whale wallets adding, exchange reserves dropping fast, stablecoin inflows remain high, no distribution pattern from long-term holders), you may ignore minor price signals or time-based friction and average down if a short-term correction hits.
Secondary Filter – Time in the Cycle:
Early Post-Halving (Q1–Q2): Usually, you see partial bull run but not yet mania. If you see moderately bullish on-chain signals here, you can keep holding or accumulate. Typically do not do a big scale-out.
Mid to Late Post-Halving (Q3–Q4): Historically, mania peaks have arrived in Q4. If you observe strong mania signals in Q4, weigh them heavily: likely the real top.
If a mania signal appears too early (Q2 or July for instance), you might say “Yes, scale out somewhat, but keep a chunk for potential Q4 blow-off.” Conversely, if mania signals still haven’t shown up by Q1 of the midterm year, you might scale out gradually anyway because you’re historically well past the typical top window.
Tertiary Filter – Price Milestones:
Use them to set baseline partial exit or entry rules:
Baseline Sell Rules: “If my position is up 2× from cost basis, sell 25–50%. Keep the rest. If 3× from cost basis, reevaluate on-chain metrics. If mania is raging, might sell another 25–50%.”
Baseline Buy Rules: “If I see a 25–30% price drop from recent local highs but on-chain signals remain bullish, add or open new positions.”
Price triggers require minimal subjectivity but should be flexible. E.g., if on-chain mania ignites at only +70% from your entry, consider partial scale-out earlier. Or if on-chain is super bullish but price is still near your entry, hold or even add more.
3. Example Flowchart (Step-by-Step)
Entering a Position
Check On/Off-Chain: Are we in a short-term correction (e.g., 20–30% drop), yet on-chain shows no major distribution from whales/LTH, stablecoin inflows remain healthy, and macro environment is stable or bullish?
Yes → High confidence to enter or add.
No (Indicators look bad) → Wait for clarity, even if price is tempting.
Time Check: If it’s early in the post-halving cycle and off-chain regulation/fed policy are neutral to positive, that’s typically a good window to accumulate dips.
Holding
If you’re mid-cycle, keep an eye on your baseline price-based partial profit thresholds. E.g., if you’re up 80%, but not yet at a double, and on-chain still bullish, hold. No mania signals, no partial scale-out.
If you cross a major price milestone (like 2× your entry) but mania signals remain subdued, maybe scale out 25% anyway—locking in a smaller guaranteed profit—then keep the rest if indicators remain bullish.
Scaling Out in Partial Chunks
Each time you hit a major price threshold (2×, 3×, etc.), reevaluate on-chain/off-chain mania signals.
If signals are neutral, stick to your partial scale-out plan (e.g., sell 25%).
If mania is raging (extreme hype across social media, MVRV-Z in red zone, stablecoin mania, mainstream coverage is euphoric, Fear & Greed consistently 90+), then scale out more aggressively (e.g., sell an extra 25–50%).
Also layer in time: If it’s Q4 of the post-halving cycle, mania signals are extreme, and price is well above your cost basis, that’s historically prime blow-off top territory → scale out big.
Late-Stage Decision
If it’s well into Q4, mania signals are off the charts, price is far above your initial threshold (e.g., 2–3× your entry) → You’re likely near the final top.
Scale out most or all. Keep only a small portion if you’re comfortable with potential further upside, but avoid the risk of riding it all back down.
Aftermath (Bear Market)
Once a big blow-off correction starts and on-chain signals capitulation, you can reaccumulate with fresh capital. Or rotate back from stable assets into BTC/ETH if you intend a new cycle rotation.
(Related: Bitcoin’s History of January Corrections)
Putting It All Together: An Illustrative Example
Weigh On-Chain/Off-Chain at 50%:
If MVRV-Z is in the mid-range and whales are accumulating, plus ETF news is bullish → Confidence is high.
If mania conditions exist (top-tier mania signals) → Priority to scale out no matter the timeline or price target.
Time in Cycle at 30%:
If it’s early (Q1–Q2 post-halving) and signals are bullish, accumulate or continue holding.
If Q4 of post-halving year is upon us and signals are at mania → strongly consider the final exit, even if you’re “only” at a 2× gain and hoping for 3×.
Price at 20%:
Always set partial exit rules. For instance, 25% out at 2×, 25% out at 3×.
If mania signals override, you can exit earlier/later. If time suggests you’re far from typical peak, you could skip the partial exit at 2× or reduce it.
By following this structure, you ensure:
You lock in some profit (price-based triggers).
You don’t exit too early or too late (on-chain mania signals + time guidance).
You remain flexible so that if the cycle drastically deviates from past patterns, you still have the real-time data from on-chain/off-chain to direct your moves.
Final Tips with Triple Lens Strategy
It is important to note that the optimal targets within each of the lenses are not objectively agreed upon… you may think MVRV-Z will matter more this cycle than interest rates and M2 supply whereas another may think Puell Multiple and Fear/Greed Index matter the most for indicators.
Some may think the cycle is going to last around 12 months, others may think 18 months, and another may think prolonged cycle that lasts 24 months or something… you need to come up with your own thesis.
Outsourcing your thinking means you’ll want to blame others rather than take personal responsibility for your choices. Think for yourself so you have nobody to blame but yourself if things go wrong - and you can take full credit if you are right.
Document Your Rules: Write down your planned thresholds for partial sells and your mania-checklist (top-tier on-chain/off-chain mania signals). This reduces emotional bias.
Allow for Some Deviations: If a double comes very quickly and on-chain mania is nowhere in sight, you could reduce your scale-out from 25% to 10–15%. Conversely, if mania signals appear but you’re not yet at a double, partial exit anyway.
Don’t Overfit to Strict Timelines: The 4-year cycle is a guidepost, not a law of physics. Let on/off-chain data have the final say (since it’s weighted 50%).
Reassess Macro: If a major macro shock or administration shift speeds or slows the cycle, you can pivot. For example, if the Fed unexpectedly extends rate cuts or Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve initiative speeds mania, plan to exit earlier if mania arrives sooner.
A tri-dimensional approach—heavy emphasis on real-time fundamental signals, moderate weighting of the historical cycle timeline, and a stable “floor” of price-based triggers—maximizes your chance of capturing significant upside while diligently locking in profits.
By layering each dimension properly, you avoid the pitfalls of being beholden to any single metric and retain enough flexibility to adapt to a rapidly changing cycle.
Triple Lens Strategy vs. Investor Types (Profiles)
It is important that you don’t just blindly follow the specific weights and/or examples set here… you need to know the strategy that you are most comfortable with based on risk.
If you are ultra-conservative, you may want to heavily weight price action and lightly weight indicators and time-in-cycle.
If you are ultra-aggressive you may want to give almost zero weight to price action and focus mostly on indicators and/or time-in-cycle.
I provide examples for each type re: how you may want to weight the 3 dimensions but you may want to tweak them further (e.g. 90% weight on price action if ultra-conservative, 5% indicators, 5% cycle timing).
The 3 Dimensions
On-Chain/Off-Chain Indicators (aka “Market Health” or Fundamental Signals)
Time-in-Cycle (Halving-based historical context)
Price Milestones (Profit-taking thresholds)
We previously discussed a baseline weighting for an “average” investor: roughly 50% weight on on/off-chain indicators, 30% weight on time, and 20% weight on price triggers.
Investor Profiles
Each investor profile—Ultra-Conservative, Conservative, Moderate, Aggressive, or Ultra-Aggressive—can tweak these weights and how they act on the signals to align with their goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon.
1. Ultra-Conservative Investor
The Ultra-Conservative investor treats crypto as extremely high risk. They prefer frequent, systematic profit-taking the moment a solid gain appears. They want minimal drawdowns and don’t mind missing big mania tops if it spares them any chance of a severe crash.
Key Traits
Primary Goal: Capital preservation over large gains; exit early to avoid losses.
Risk Tolerance: Very low—prefer to lock in smaller profits than risk a big drop.
Mindset: “I’d rather sell too soon than watch my gains vanish.”
Suggested Weightings
On/Off-Chain Indicators: ~30%
Time in Cycle: ~20%
Price Milestones: ~50%
They lean heavily on simple price targets to exit positions quickly.
Implementation Details
Price Trigger Priority (50%)
Sell a chunk (25–50%) when up just +30–50%.
May set tight stop-loss/trailing stop once in profit.
If the price doubles, exit the majority—don’t wait for full “mania signals.”
On/Off-Chain Indicators (30%)
If mania signals spike, they might fully exit on the first signs of euphoria.
If fundamental signals remain bullish but price has already jumped, they still reduce exposure “just in case.”
Time in Cycle (20%)
If it’s late post-halving (Q4 in a bull year), they exit with or without big mania signals.
If it’s early, they might keep a smaller percentage riding but still have tight triggers.
Example Scenario
Market up 40% from entry; mania signals mild. Ultra-Conservative sells 25–50% because the initial profit threshold was reached.
Mid-year mania: On-chain signals go hot. They quickly sell another large chunk—even if more upside is possible.
Late Q4 mania: They likely close out entirely; refusing to “gamble” on final blow-off upside.
Additional Considerations
Psychological Fit: Minimal stress on daily swings; they’ve locked profits fast.
Opportunity Cost: Often leave a lot on the table if the market continues rallying.
Portfolio Structure: Likely keeps a significant portion in stable assets or cash.
2. Conservative Investor
The Conservative investor aims to protect principal while still catching some upside. They do partial sells upon hitting moderate gains but also factor in on-chain signals and cycle timing to potentially hold a bit longer than Ultra-Conservatives.
Key Traits
Primary Goal: Preserve capital and lock in moderate gains early.
Risk Tolerance: Low—but slightly more open to waiting for bigger runs.
Mindset: “Better safe than sorry, but I’ll wait a bit if signals look good.”
Suggested Weightings
On/Off-Chain Indicators: 40%
Time in Cycle: 25%
Price Milestones: 35%
They rely strongly on price triggers for partial sells but do pay close attention to fundamental signals and where we are in the halving cycle.
Implementation Details
Price Milestones (35%)
Might sell 25% if a position is up +50–70%.
If it doubles (2×), scale out another 25–50%.
On/Off-Chain Indicators (40%)
If mania signals go extreme (MVRV Z-score, news mania), they’ll exit a large chunk quickly.
They can re-add a bit on dips, but usually in smaller increments.
Time in Cycle (25%)
If it’s late in the post-halving year (historically near tops), they’ll scale out more aggressively.
If earlier in the cycle, they might hold a bit longer but still keep partial profit-taking in place.
Example Scenario
Start of a strong rally: Price is up 70%, mania not confirmed. Conservative sells 25% to lock gains.
Mid-year mania signals rising: Sells an additional 25–50% to secure further profits.
Late Q4 mania: Usually fully exit or keep a small “moon bag” if truly convinced of a last leg up.
Additional Considerations
Psychological Fit: Reduced stress—some guaranteed profits, but still a chance to ride further.
Opportunity Cost: Can miss out on late-stage blow-off if they exit too soon.
Portfolio Structure: Likely holds safer coins (large caps) and keeps decent cash on hand.
3. Moderate Investor
The Moderate investor balances capital protection with upside participation. They use partial sells at clear price multiples but strongly weigh on/off-chain signals and typical halving-cycle timing to decide when and how much to sell.
Key Traits
Primary Goal: Capture large upside without riding a bubble down.
Risk Tolerance: Medium—comfortable with some volatility if it means bigger gains.
Mindset: “I’ll sell some at certain multiples, but if the on-chain data says more upside is likely, I’ll hold.”
Suggested Weightings
On/Off-Chain Indicators: 50%
Time in Cycle: 30%
Price Milestones: 20%
They’re flexible on price triggers if fundamental signals suggest a bigger rally is still ahead.
Implementation Details
On/Off-Chain Indicators (50%)
Big mania signals (extreme FOMO, media coverage, spiking MVRV) trigger heavier sells—even if price hasn’t hit a personal target.
If mid-run corrections appear but fundamentals still strong, they stay in.
Time in Cycle (30%)
Aware that Q4 post-halving is often the “blow-off zone.”
If mania surfaces in Q3, they start partial sells but not a full exit until deeper mania in Q4.
Price Milestones (20%)
Example: Sell ~25% at +100%, another ~25% at +200%.
Very open to overriding these if mania or time-based signals accelerate or delay the cycle.
Example Scenario
Mid-cycle (Q2 post-halving): Coin up 2× from entry, mania signals moderate, time suggests months left. They sell 25%, keep 75%.
Late Q4 mania: On-chain overheated, historically near top. They sell 50–75%, keep a small bag for a potential overshoot.
Additional Considerations
Psychological Fit: Balanced approach—less regret either way.
Opportunity Cost & Drawdown Risk: If mania never comes, they’ve at least sold some at profit but might still be holding some if a crash happens abruptly.
Portfolio Structure: A mixed bag of blue chips and some mid-cap alts.
4. Aggressive Investor
The Aggressive investor maximizes gains by riding out most of the cycle. They focus on on-chain mania signals and cycle timing, with only minimal reliance on price triggers.
Key Traits
Primary Goal: Capture as much of the bull run as possible.
Risk Tolerance: High—willing to weather big drawdowns if they believe mania is forthcoming.
Mindset: “I won’t exit early; I’ll wait for blow-off signals to cash out big.”
Suggested Weightings
On/Off-Chain Indicators: ~55–60%
Time in Cycle: ~35–40%
Price Milestones: ~5–10%
They set minimal price-based sales and rely more on mania signals (MVRV Z-score, stablecoin inflows, media hype) and historical halving patterns.
Implementation Details
On/Off-Chain Indicators (60%)
Rarely exit unless mania signals are off the charts or macro conditions turn severely negative.
If mania is not yet “confirmed,” they hold—even if 2–3× up.
Time in Cycle (35–40%)
Q4 post-halving is historically the biggest mania period. They specifically watch for that blow-off.
If mania arrives early but data suggests more upside, they stay in.
Price Milestones (5–10%)
Might sell 10% at +2× or +3× “just to lock something in.”
The bulk remains in play until fundamental mania signals scream “exit.”
Example Scenario
July (mid-cycle): Price up 2×, mania signals only moderate. Aggressive sells just 10%, holds 90%.
Q4 mania: MVRV Z-Score hits red, mainstream coverage everywhere. Aggressive sells 70–80% swiftly, leaving 20–30% if they suspect a final blow-off spike.
Additional Considerations
Psychological Fit: Must handle big swings and remain patient.
Downside: If the market crashes suddenly, they may give back huge unrealized gains.
Portfolio Structure: Often includes small-to-mid cap alts aiming for outsized returns.
5. Ultra-Aggressive Investor
The Ultra-Aggressive investor is all-in on riding the entire mania wave, often ignoring typical profit-taking triggers. They rely almost exclusively on on-chain euphoria and late-stage cycle timing to exit—and they’re willing to re-enter if they think the top isn’t in yet.
Key Traits
Primary Goal: Extract every bit of the final blow-off.
Risk Tolerance: Extremely high—prepared for severe drawdowns.
Mindset: “I’d rather risk losing big gains than exit before the true top.”
Suggested Weightings
On/Off-Chain Indicators: 60–65%
Time in Cycle: 35–40%
Price Milestones: 0–5%
They virtually ignore standard price-based selling, trusting only mania signals and Q4 timing.
Implementation Details
On/Off-Chain Indicators (60–65%)
Full conviction in mania signals: MVRV extremes, Google Trends mania, exchange signup booms.
If mania hasn’t clearly appeared, they hold—even at +3×, +4×, or +5×.
Time in Cycle (35–40%)
Historically, the biggest mania blow-off often hits Q4 post-halving. Ultra-Aggressive invests accordingly.
Only if multiple blow-off signals coincide with the typical top window do they exit a majority of the position.
Price Milestones (0–5%)
They may not sell at all until final mania.
Possibly offload a tiny 5% if the coin is up +5× or more, purely for psychological comfort.
Example Scenario
Mid-cycle (Q2): Already up 4×, mania signals moderate. They hold 100%.
Sudden crash in August: Price drops 30%. On-chain data shows whales still accumulating, so they hold (or even buy more).
Q4 mania: MVRV red-hot, news everywhere, Q4 historical top zone. They quickly exit 80–90%, might keep 10–20% for a last gasp higher.
Additional Considerations
Psychological Fit: Must be comfortable watching large swings in both directions.
Downside: Massive paper gains can evaporate if mania never materializes or a black swan event hits.
Portfolio Structure: Often heavily in mid- or high-volatility coins to maximize the upside.
Summary Table: Comparing 5 Investor Profiles
Triple Lens Strategy in Practice: Checklist for All Profiles
Are on/off-chain mania signals flashing?
Ultra-Cons/Cons: Sell heavily at first sign of euphoria.
Moderate: Partially exit, but remain open to further upside.
Agg/Ultra-Agg: May wait longer for even more extreme signals.
Where are we in the halving cycle?
Late Q4 post-halving is historically the mania zone—everyone pays attention.
Ultra-Cons/Cons likely exit earlier, Mods partial-sell, Aggressives wait for blow-off, Ultra-Aggressives wait until it’s “unquestionably mania.”
Have I hit my baseline price threshold?
Ultra-Cons: Sells heavily, sometimes 50% or more.
Cons: Partial sells (25–50%) at moderate gains.
Mods: ~25% at 2×, flexible afterward.
Agg/Ultra-Agg: Might ignore or do minimal sells unless mania signals align with late-cycle timing.
Macroeconomic or Policy Shocks
Positive (e.g., major institutional adoption) could accelerate mania → everyone may move up timeline.
Negative (e.g., regulation) → even Agg/Ultra-Agg might reduce exposure sooner.
Recap: Triple Lens Strategy vs. Investor Profiles
Ultra-Conservative: Price triggers first, small tolerance for drawdowns, happy to exit early.
Conservative: Systematically partial-sells on price gains, checks on-chain signals, but still limited risk appetite.
Moderate: Middle ground—some price-based sells, strong reliance on fundamental/time signals for final decisions.
Aggressive: Minimal forced selling, tries to hold through bigger uptrends, primarily reliant on mania signals and cycle timing.
Ultra-Aggressive: Ignores almost all typical price-based exits, risking large swings to catch the absolute mania top.
By selecting the profile that fits your risk tolerance and investment goals, you can harness the three dimensions—Indicators, Time, and Price—to navigate crypto cycles effectively, balancing upside capture with the risk of drawdowns.