Romania Presidential Election 2025: AI Prediction & Betting Odds
Who does the hot shot AI (o3) think wins the Romania presidential election on May 4, 2025?
I don’t know much about Romania other than it’s become a fairly popular hotbed for “digital nomads” who want to live on the cheap in Eastern Europe.
Cities like Bucharest, Cluj-Napoca, Timisoara, etc. are common destinations. Romania offers good internet speeds, reasonable safety, high English proficiency, and low-to-fair cost of living — plus a 12-month residence for non-EU nationals earning above a certain monthly income threshold.
That said, Romania is far from an ideal place to live: (1) extremely high smoking rates (~37% of men smoke, 27-30% of adults smoke, nicotine haze most places); (2) shitty air quality (Bucharest annual PM 2.5 is 4x the WHO guideline); (3) second-worst road death rate in the EU (aggressive driving); (4) bad healthcare; (5) high corruption; and (6) high rates of cybercrime.
Over the past ~10 years (2015-2025), Romania has improved to some extent: income, internet, highway mileage, energy/power, and private-sector jobs — but remains stuck or regressing other ways: corruption, public healthcare, deadly driving.
I recently read that Romania had an upcoming presidential election. How does it work? It’s a 2-round system with the first vote on May 4, 2025. If a candidate secures more than 50% of the vote in the first round, he/she wins outright.
If no candidate secures more than 50% of the votes in the first round, a runoff is held in a second vote (May 18, 2025) between the top 2 candidates. Historically a winner in Round 1 almost NEVER happens… so we should probably expect the president to be decided May 18th.
Worth noting is that the Romanian election was supposed to occur in November 2024 — but results were deemed invalid due to Russian interference.
I had o3 “deep research” dissect all the nuance associated with the Romanian presidential election in attempt to accurately predict who wins and whether there’s any alpha or potentially favorable “bets” to be had on Polymarket. (Note: Nothing here is financial, investment, or gambling advice.)
I now summon the powers of o3 to take it away… the floor is yours. (Well I may need to make some corrections. At some point I may do a H2H comparison of o3 deep research to a thread of queries with o3 sans deep research — I think the outcome may be similar or better with pure o3 due to the higher concentration on each specific query.) I’ve already encountered many deep research errors via o3 — perhaps fewer errors with standard o3, but it’s not perfect.
Research details: 20m x 44 sources
Romania’s May 2025 Presidential Election: Forecast & Analysis
Background & Election Process
Romania’s president is elected through a two-round system. If no candidate receives over 50% of the vote in the first round (scheduled for May 4, 2025), a runoff between the top two candidates is held two weeks later, on May 18, 2025.
Historically, elections in Romania almost always go to a second round, where coalition-building and voter transfers are critical to determining the winner.
The 2025 election is notable because it is a re-run. The original first round, held in November 2024, was annulled due to alleged foreign interference. Just 48 hours before the scheduled runoff, the Constitutional Court invalidated the vote, citing evidence of a coordinated Russian online campaign that benefited the surprise first-round leader, independent nationalist Călin Georgescu.
Georgescu shocked the political establishment by finishing first with around 23%, ahead of both candidates from Romania’s main governing parties. The annulment sparked protests and political instability, but also led mainstream parties to regroup and unify heading into the re-run.
Romania’s two-round structure heavily shapes campaign strategy:
Round 1 typically features many candidates, fragmenting the vote.
Round 2 consolidates quickly, as parties and voters align behind whichever finalist they see as the lesser evil.
This pattern is especially important in 2025. With extreme and outsider candidates in play, several parties have already indicated they will unite in the second round to prevent any perceived anti-democratic or pro-Russian candidate from winning.
Thus, leading in the first round offers no guarantee of victory. The final outcome will depend on coalition-building, turnout, and voter transfers — especially from the diaspora and ethnic minorities, who could prove decisive.
Major Candidates & Alliances
1.) Crin Antonescu – Independent
(endorsed by PSD–PNL–UDMR Alliance)
Crin Antonescu is the joint candidate of Romania’s governing coalition, an unprecedented alliance between the center-left Social Democratic Party (PSD), center-right National Liberal Party (PNL), and the Hungarian minority party UDMR.
A former PNL leader and Senate president, Antonescu is a well-known figure within the political establishment. He was chosen on December 24, 2024, as the consensus nominee of the newly formed "Romania Forward Alliance" (A.Ro) — a strategic coalition created to unify moderate voters and prevent another political upset following the annulled 2024 first round.
In early January, amid ongoing political upheaval, Antonescu briefly suspended his campaign, but later re-entered the race and was formally validated by all coalition parties by February.
His campaign focuses on themes of pro-EU, pro-NATO stability, and promises a return to normalcy after the chaos of the 2024 election. As the candidate backed by the incumbent government, Antonescu benefits from the nationwide political machinery of both PSD and PNL, which has historically proven powerful in mobilizing voters.
However, he faces several challenges:
Public cynicism toward entrenched political elites.
Lingering rivalry between PSD and PNL bases, which may undermine full grassroots enthusiasm.
Some PSD voters are uneasy about supporting a longtime PNL figure, while some liberals remain critical of his past alliances with PSD.
Antonescu has acknowledged Romania’s political stagnation, noting that “the party rooted in the Communist era still runs the country.”
Strengths:
– Strong institutional backing
– Deep political experience
– A unifying, democratic message aimed at the center-left and moderate electorate
Weaknesses:
– Viewed as part of the old political class
– Must bridge historic tensions between coalition parties
– Faces skepticism from both PSD loyalists and liberal critics
His path to victory depends on high turnout among moderate voters, particularly centrists and the center-left, and on persuading undecided voters that he is the only candidate capable of blocking a far-right win in the runoff.
2.) George Simion – Leader of AUR
(Alliance for the Union of Romanians)
George Simion leads the ultra-nationalist, Eurosceptic AUR party and has emerged as the far-right’s standard-bearer following Călin Georgescu’s disqualification. In the annulled 2024 election, Simion also ran but polled only around 14%, as many of his supporters rallied behind Georgescu’s independent bid.
With Georgescu removed from the 2025 re-run (he was barred on March 7 amid criminal investigations tied to his 2024 campaign), Simion now stands as the undisputed champion of the protest vote.
He presents himself as an anti-system crusader, positioning AUR against what he calls the “corrupt cartel” of PSD–PNL. His rhetoric is staunchly conservative and nationalist, sometimes veering into anti-EU territory. He has been accused of harboring Moscow-friendly views, a charge he vehemently denies.
Simion’s campaign slogan — “Democrație” (Democracy) — frames the 2024 annulment as a theft of the people’s voice, fueling anger among Georgescu’s disenfranchised base. Many of these voters have joined ongoing anti-government street protests, and Simion is seeking to channel that fury into electoral momentum.
Recent polls show him leading the first round, with support estimates ranging from 25–35%, the highest of any candidate. He is favored to reach the runoff.
Strengths:
– A highly motivated and passionate voter base
– Momentum as the de facto opposition front-runner
– Strong name recognition and outsider appeal
Weaknesses:
– Deeply polarizing in a one-on-one runoff
– All major parties have signaled they will unite to block an AUR candidate
– Head-to-head polls against Crin Antonescu typically show Simion losing, e.g., 36–49% in one mid-April survey, though a few polls have shown him narrowly ahead
– Hostility toward mainstream media, with campaign events limited to friendly journalists
– Alleged ties to extremist groups, which could alienate moderate or undecided voters
To win the presidency, Simion would need a major surge in anti-establishment sentiment and low turnout from his opponent’s base, replicating or exceeding the populist backlash seen in the 2024 cycle.
3.) Nicușor Dan – Independent
(former USR, Mayor of Bucharest)
Nicușor Dan is a reformist independent and arguably the closest thing to a center-right outsider in the 2025 race. Originally the founder of the Save Romania Union (USR), he left party politics to become Mayor of Bucharest in 2020.
In the annulled 2024 election, USR ran its leader Elena Lasconi, who performed well — finishing second with 19.2%. However, for the 2025 re-run, the centrist opposition rallied around Dan as a more nationally recognized and unifying figure.
By April 2025, Dan secured endorsements from a wide range of pro-reform and center-right parties, including:
Forța Dreptei (FD)
People’s Movement Party (PMP)
DREPT
REPER
The Greens
USR itself (which controversially dropped Lasconi and endorsed Dan on April 9)
Lasconi refused to withdraw and remains on the ballot, but is running without official party backing.
Dan’s platform emphasizes anti-corruption, good governance, and pro-European values, with strong appeal to urban, educated voters — especially in Bucharest and other large cities.
Strengths:
– Perceived as honest and principled, with a clean image distinct from PSD–PNL elites
– Has an enthusiastic urban base
– Viewed as a capable reformer by younger and centrist voters
– Some polls place him second in the first round, narrowly trailing Antonescu
– In runoff matchups, he is projected to defeat Simion decisively (e.g., 58% vs 42%)
Weaknesses:
– Lasconi’s lingering candidacy could split the reformist vote, siphoning off a few percentage points
– Competes directly with Antonescu for the moderate, pro-EU electorate
– Low appeal among PSD/PNL voters in round one
– Mixed mayoral record, including ongoing infrastructure issues in Bucharest, which critics cite to question his executive ability
– Even in a runoff, there’s a risk some PSD voters might abstain rather than back a longtime anti-PSD figure like Dan
Dan has a plausible but difficult path to the runoff, especially if Antonescu’s support fractures or if Lasconi fades late. If he does reach the second round, he is favored to win against Simion — but turnout dynamics and voter loyalty shifts could still make such a contest volatile.
4.) Victor Ponta – Independent
(former PSD Prime Minister)
Victor Ponta, Romania’s former prime minister (2012–2015) and PSD’s 2014 presidential candidate, is attempting a political comeback as a nationalist-leaning independent. Running under the slogan “România pe primul loc!” (Romania First!), Ponta has distanced himself from PSD’s current leadership and the PSD–PNL alliance.
His candidacy appears aimed at capturing disaffected center-left voters — particularly those frustrated with the governing coalition or dissatisfied with Crin Antonescu as the PSD-endorsed nominee. In this sense, Ponta functions as both a spoiler and potential kingmaker.
Polling places Ponta between 8% and 18–23%, though most observers consider the higher figures outliers. His momentum may be limited by controversy — notably, recent public backlash over claims he diverted floodwaters from Serbia into Romanian villages in 2014, which he has denied. Still, his presence complicates the electoral math.
Impact on the race:
Even at ~10%, Ponta could significantly undercut Antonescu, siphoning off PSD loyalists and nationalists who might otherwise reluctantly back the coalition candidate.
The more support Ponta pulls from the center-left base, the more likely Antonescu slips to third, potentially behind both George Simion and Nicușor Dan.
Though highly unlikely, if Ponta were to reach the runoff (by leapfrogging both Antonescu and Dan), it’s expected that the entire PSD apparatus would realign behind him to block an AUR victory. In hypothetical head-to-head matchups, Ponta is shown defeating Simion comfortably (e.g., 61% to 39%).
More realistically, Ponta’s round-one performance positions him to negotiate a critical endorsement. He has not formally indicated who he would support in a runoff, but given his PSD roots, he would likely prefer Antonescu over Simion — despite past personal rivalries.
The behavior of Ponta’s voters in the second round may prove decisive. If they split or abstain, it would significantly benefit Simion.
Strengths:
– Longtime political figure with name recognition
– Appeal to disillusioned PSD supporters and nationalists
– Wild card potential to affect final matchups
Weaknesses:
– Carries political baggage (e.g., 2015 plagiarism scandal, past corruption charges, public controversies)
– Viewed as opportunistic by many on both left and right
– No clear institutional base or party machinery
– Ceiling is likely capped by his controversial past and outsider status
Overall, Ponta is not expected to win, but his role as a spoiler and dealmaker makes him a crucial variable in the 2025 first-round dynamics — particularly for Antonescu’s chances of advancing.
5.) Other Candidates
A total of 11 candidates qualified for the 2025 presidential re-run, but aside from the main four (Antonescu, Simion, Dan, Ponta), none are expected to break beyond the low single digits. A few notable names:
Elena Lasconi (USR) – Despite her party switching support to Nicușor Dan, Lasconi has remained in the race out of principle. As the only woman candidate and a strong anti-corruption voice, she could attract a small slice of the electorate. She previously earned nearly 20% in the annulled 2024 election, but most of those voters are expected to follow USR’s endorsement of Dan. Her refusal to withdraw highlights the split within the reformist camp, though she is unlikely to reach the runoff. In round two, her remaining supporters would almost certainly back Dan or Antonescu over any extremist.
Cristian Terheș (PNCR) – A nationalist MEP known for Eurosceptic and anti-vaccine rhetoric, running under a small Christian-Democratic banner. Polls place him around 1–3%. He appeals to the far-right fringe and endorsed Georgescu in 2024. Any votes he receives are votes that don’t go to Simion, but Simion has largely consolidated the far-right base, making Terheș’s impact marginal. In a runoff, his voters would almost certainly side with Simion.
Lavinia Șandru (PUSL) – Represents a small humanist party loosely tied to media mogul Dan Voiculescu. She polls around 1–2%, although some earlier surveys showed inflated numbers (~4–5%). PUSL often aligns with PSD, and Șandru is expected to endorse Antonescu in the second round. The party maintains a centrist slogan but has limited support.
Daniel Funeriu (Independent) – A former technocrat education minister, Funeriu is running on a technocracy and anti-corruption platform. His appeal is limited to intellectuals and diaspora voters, likely polling around 1%. If eliminated, his base — which leans ex-PNL and USR — would prefer Dan or Antonescu over Simion.
Hunor Kelemen (UDMR) – The longtime leader of Romania’s Hungarian minority chose not to run in 2025, after receiving ~4.5% in the 2024 election. Instead, UDMR has formally endorsed Antonescu, ensuring that the ~5% ethnic Hungarian vote will go to the governing coalition in both rounds — a key boost for Antonescu, especially in Transylvania.
Others (John Ion Banu, Sebastian Popescu, Silviu Predoiu) – These are fringe independents or minor-party candidates polling below 1%. They are not expected to influence the race meaningfully, beyond contributing to the overall “Other” vote.
Key Issues & Voter Concerns
This election unfolds amid a backdrop of political instability, economic pressure, and geopolitical uncertainty. Although Romania’s economy has grown in recent years, it now faces major headwinds: inflation spiked into double digits post-pandemic, and growth is forecast to slow to around 1% in 2024.
The country is also grappling with a large budget deficit (~7–8% of GDP), which will require fiscal reforms post-election. Yet these bread-and-butter issues — inflation, jobs, pensions — have been overshadowed by themes of identity and institutional trust.
1.) Democracy & Rule of Law
The annulment of the 2024 election — a first in modern Romanian history — has made the health of democracy itself a central issue. Simion and his supporters frame the annulment as an anti-democratic “trick” by the political establishment to exclude their candidate. The government counters that the move was necessary to protect Romania from foreign subversion.
This narrative clash has fostered deep distrust across the electorate. As of mid-April, nearly 40% of voters remain undecided, reflecting widespread skepticism and anxiety. Whether these voters stay home, split across candidates, or rally to block a feared outcome could decide the final result.
2.) Corruption & Governance
Corruption remains a deeply rooted concern in Romanian politics. In 2024, both Georgescu and Lasconi drew support from voters angry at entrenched elites. In 2025, Nicușor Dan and Lasconi continue to promote anti-corruption platforms, criticizing the PSD–PNL “National Coalition” for fostering cronyism.
Simion also targets “corrupt elites,” but critics argue his party lacks a clear or credible anti-graft agenda. Voters prioritizing integrity may back Dan or Lasconi in the first round. Ironically, even with PSD backing, Antonescu may be perceived as a cleaner alternative to Simion in a runoff, especially among moderates.
3.) Foreign Policy & Security
The war in Ukraine remains a key backdrop. As a NATO and EU member bordering Ukraine, Romania has hosted U.S. troops and Ukrainian refugees, and has taken a pro-Western stance.
Antonescu, Dan, and Ponta are all staunchly pro-NATO.
Simion, by contrast, has voiced skepticism toward Western sanctions on Russia and has echoed nationalist rhetoric that raises concern among Western allies.
The alleged Russian disinformation campaign supporting Georgescu in 2024 has elevated fears of foreign electoral interference. Romania’s security services have since declassified evidence of “hybrid attacks” — and this is likely to be used to paint Simion as a threat to Romania’s Euro-Atlantic orientation.
While Simion deflects with sovereignty messaging — accusing the establishment of being puppets for Brussels and Washington — the broader pro-EU vs nationalist divide frames this election as a pivotal moment for Romania’s direction.
Western observers and markets generally prefer Antonescu or Dan to keep the country anchored to the West. A Simion victory would signal a possible shift toward illiberal nationalism.
4.) Economic Pain Points
Despite Romania’s macroeconomic stability (low unemployment, manageable debt), inflation remains high, and rising energy costs have fueled discontent.
Many lower-income and rural voters feel left behind — a trend that fed the protest vote in 2024.
Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu has implemented social programs, but austerity may follow the election to reduce the deficit.
Key concerns include pensions, salaries for public workers, and healthcare access.
The government has avoided aggressive reforms during the campaign, wary of fueling Simion’s populist narrative. Meanwhile:
Simion promises populist measures like tax cuts and no pension age hikes — popular, but economically risky.
Ponta also criticizes austerity.
Dan and the technocrats emphasize fiscal responsibility, warning that reckless policies could threaten EU funds and long-term stability.
Geographic divides also matter:
Poorer regions like Moldova and Wallachia lean toward PSD’s redistributive approach, but without PSD’s main candidate in play, they could shift toward Simion or Ponta.
Richer regions like Transylvania and major cities care more about investment and EU integration, favoring Dan or Antonescu.
5.) Demographics & Identity
Romania’s electorate splits along urban–rural, young–old, and ethnic lines.
Diaspora voters (Romanians abroad) were crucial in electing center-right presidents in 2014 and 2019. Though they deeply distrust PSD, they likely oppose AUR’s extremism even more, suggesting they will turn out for Antonescu or Dan in a runoff.
The ethnic Hungarian minority (~6% of the population) is another key bloc. With UDMR backing Antonescu, he is expected to win overwhelming support from Hungarian-Romanians — potentially 300,000+ votes, critical in a close race.
Among younger voters, there is a divide: some are drawn to AUR’s nationalism, while others prefer progressive and tech-savvy reformists like Dan or USR.
Youth turnout could be decisive. AUR’s rise has been linked to youth engagement on TikTok, which played an unusual role in 2024. One campaign even admitted its social media outreach was hijacked and altered to benefit Georgescu — a scandal that damaged public trust.
This cycle, misinformation remains a live issue. Nicușor Dan has already reported fake AI-generated videos targeting him, and Romania’s relatively low digital literacy leaves it vulnerable to disinformation campaigns.
Romania’s 2025 election is a clash of visions:
Pro-European, institutional reformers (Antonescu, Dan)
Nationalist-populist challengers (Simion, Ponta)
And a backdrop of economic stress, foreign interference, and democratic fragility
The outcome will ripple beyond Romania’s borders — shaping its internal stability and its alignment within the EU and NATO.
First-Round Outlook: Fragmentation & Realignment (May 4, 2025)
Heading into May 4, we have essentially four candidates polling in double digits – Simion, Antonescu, Dan, and Ponta – with others far behind.
No one is anywhere near 50%, so a runoff is virtually certain. The central question is which two make the cut. Based on current signals:
George Simion (AUR) is very likely to finish first or second on May 4. All major polls show him leading or tied for the lead in round one. His base – drawn from 2024’s 23% Georgescu plus his own 14% – could theoretically reach into the 30s. It appears Simion will advance barring a last-minute collapse. His ceiling in round one might be limited by competition from Terheș on the far-right (small effect) and by Ponta appealing to some anti-system voters on the left. But given the fervor of his supporters and the narrative of a “stolen election,” Simion is expected to mobilize strongly.
Crin Antonescu (PSD–PNL) is in a fight for second place (or even first in some optimistic scenarios). The advantage of having PSD, PNL, and UDMR jointly backing him is that, on paper, their combined 2019 electorate is well over 50%. However, coalition voters don’t add up neatly due to defections. PSD’s core vote (especially in rural areas) can be split by Ponta’s presence and some apathy. PNL’s electorate too is restless – some liberals prefer Nicușor Dan’s anti-PSD stance over their own party’s alliance with PSD. Antonescu’s support has been polled anywhere from the high teens to mid-20s. Undecided moderate voters will determine if Antonescu scores in the 20s (danger zone) or pushes above 30%. The massive undecided rate (~40%) suggests many centrist voters have yet to commit – likely because they are uneasy about the PSD–PNL alliance but also fear AUR. We anticipate a chunk of these will “come home” to Antonescu in the final days as the lesser evil, boosting his total. Also, the machinery of local mayors (especially PSD’s strong rural network) will drive turnout for him. In 2019, PSD’s candidate Viorica Dăncilă polled ~23% in the first round; a similar figure for Antonescu is feasible, and he could top that if enough PNL voters comply. We project Antonescu to land around 25–30% and secure a runoff spot, though not guaranteed. His team will watch Ponta’s numbers nervously – if Ponta climbs into the teens, Antonescu could drop to third.
Nicușor Dan (Independent/USR) is the X-factor that could upset Antonescu. His polling has consistently been in the high teens or low 20s. Notably, polls taken after USR’s endorsement of Dan may show an uptick, as some Lasconi holdouts swing behind him. However, with Lasconi still on the ballot (she polled ~5–9% in April surveys), Dan’s maximum might be constrained. If Lasconi gets say 4–5% in the end (from hardcore USR members who dislike the switch), that effectively subtracts from Dan’s pool. Moreover, Dan might lose a few liberal votes to Antonescu strategically – some center-right voters could vote Antonescu in round one to ensure Simion doesn’t finish first by too wide a margin. (This kind of tactical voting is hard to gauge, but given the stakes, some moderate voters may prioritize eliminating Simion over their ideal first choice.) Overall, Dan is likely to finish third, with an estimated 18–22%. He has a non-trivial chance to overtake Antonescu if the latter’s campaign falters or if Ponta siphons a lot of PSD votes. For Dan to make the runoff, he would need a near-perfect consolidation of the anti-establishment center-right – meaning Lasconi falls to ~2% and a healthy number of disgruntled PNL voters defect to him. This is possible but not the most probable scenario as of now.
Victor Ponta (Independent) looks set for fourth place, but his vote share is a swing variable. Most polls put him in the high single digits to low teens. One outlier gave him 23%, which seems an oversample of PSD die-hards unwilling to support Antonescu. Realistically, Ponta may end up around 8–12%. That chunk could be decisive in knocking Antonescu below Dan, but likely it just reduces Antonescu’s first-round lead. We expect Ponta will not advance, and on election night all eyes will be on how big his vote is and where it came from. If certain PSD strongholds show low Antonescu and higher Ponta, it signals defection.
Others Combined: All minor candidates together might sum to ~5% or so. Lasconi’s few percent, Terheș ~2%, Șandru ~1%, Funeriu ~1%, plus micro-parties – collectively, these could be ~5–8%. High “Others” share typically means a very fragmented vote, which aligns with 2024’s pattern. One thing to watch: turnout. Turnout in the annulled round was ~52.5%, a bit higher than 2019. Given the heated climate, turnout could be robust again (>50%), but the confusion and protests might also dissuade some. If mainstream voters stay home out of disgust, that lowers Antonescu/Dan totals and boosts the relative share of AUR. Conversely, a strong mobilization campaign by PSD–PNL (for example, fear-mongering about “nationalists endangering Romania’s EU future”) could spur higher turnout among older and urban middle-class voters, helping Antonescu. Undecided voters breaking late could also inflate the top candidates’ numbers beyond current polls.
The most likely runoff pairing is George Simion vs. Crin Antonescu, a showdown between the far-right populist and the establishment elder. We assign roughly a 70–75% probability to this matchup. There is perhaps a 20% chance Nicușor Dan sneaks into the second round instead of Antonescu (most plausibly as Simion vs. Dan), and a very remote chance (<10%) of a Simion vs. Ponta runoff (which would require a collapse of both Antonescu and Dan). An Antonescu vs. Dan runoff (with Simion out) is extremely unlikely given Simion’s lead, so we can effectively rule that out barring a shock.
Runoff Scenarios & Likely Outcome (May 18, 2025): Both Rounds Complete
If, as expected, Antonescu and Simion advance to the May 18 runoff, the stage will be set for a classic “firewall election” – the Romanian equivalent of France’s 2017 scenario, where mainstream left and right unite to block the far-right.
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