Predicting Trump vs. Biden (April 2024): 13 Keys Method (Allan Lichtman)

According to the "13 Keys" who is favored to win the presidential election in March 2024?

Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University, has developed a prediction model called “13 Keys to the White House” to predict U.S. presidential elections since 1984.

This model was co-developed with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981 – adapting prediction methods that were initially designed for earthquake prediction.

What are the “13 Keys to the White House”?

The "13 Keys to the White House" is a forecasting system developed by American historian and political scientist Allan Lichtman.

The keys are a checklist of true/false statements that Lichtman suggests can predict the outcome of the presidential election in the United States.

According to Lichtman, if five or fewer of the statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election. If six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win.

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Lichtman's keys are based on a historical analysis of elections from 1860 to 1980, and he has used them to predict the outcomes of presidential elections with a high degree of accuracy since their development.

The model emphasizes the performance and perception of the party holding the White House rather than the specifics of policies or campaign strategies.

How accurate has Allan Lichtman been in the past in presidential predictions (1984-present)?

9/10 (90%)

Since 1984, Lichtman's system has had a strong track record, correctly predicting the outcome of nearly every presidential election through 2020 – with the notable exception of the 2000 election where the winner of the popular vote (Al Gore) did not win the presidency.

In his 1988 book, Lichtman argued that his prediction model was designed specifically to predict the popular vote winner – but he failed to remind people this when he made his prediction for 2000, simply stating that Gore would win.

Lichtman argues that Gore was the rightful winner of the 2000 election and lost due to ballot counting errors in Florida (which would’ve led him to win the electoral college) – I’ll give Lichtman a pass here.

In 2016, Lichtman predicted that Donald Trump would win the presidential election – and he did win (despite losing the popular vote)… Lichtman stated that after the 2000 election he stopped predicting the outcome of the popular vote.

Limitations of the “13 Keys” in the Modern Era of Elections

Applying Allan Lichtman's "13 Keys to the White House" to the potential 2024 election scenario involving Donald Trump versus Joe Biden—or any future election, for that matter—carries inherent limitations and considerations.

• Evolving Political Landscape: The American political landscape has been undergoing significant changes, with increased polarization and shifts in voter behavior. These changes could affect the relevance or interpretation of certain keys.

• Social Media & Information: The rise of social media and the digital information era have transformed how campaigns are run, how scandals are exposed, and how successes are broadcasted. This could influence the impact of keys related to scandals, social unrest, and the charisma of candidates.

• Unprecedented Events: The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated how unforeseen global events could dramatically impact the economy, social stability, and governance. Future events of a similar scale could challenge the predictive power of the keys, especially those related to economic performance and social unrest.

• Third-party Influence: While historically third-party candidates have not won presidential elections, their role in shaping the outcome by influencing the major party vote split is significant. The increasing dissatisfaction with the two major parties could potentially amplify the impact of a third party or independent candidate, challenging the assumption behind the third-party key.

• Demographic Shifts & Electoral Dynamics: The changing demographics of the United States, characterized by increasing racial, ethnic, and generational diversity, could significantly influence electoral outcomes and the applicability of the "13 Keys to the White House." As the electorate evolves, so do its priorities, values, and the issues that drive voter turnout and party loyalty.

• Incumbency & Charisma: The keys related to incumbency and candidate charisma may be subjective and open to interpretation, especially in a highly polarized environment. For example, perceptions of charisma and leadership qualities can vary significantly among different voter demographics.

• Globalization & Foreign Affairs: The interconnectedness of global politics and economics means that foreign affairs and economic performance are influenced by a complex array of factors beyond the control of any single administration. This complexity could diminish the predictive power of keys related to economic performance and foreign/military success.

• Historical Basis: The keys are based on historical data that, while extensive, may not fully account for new dynamics in 21st-century politics. The model's ability to adapt to these new dynamics without losing its predictive accuracy is a key consideration.

• Subjectivity & Interpretation: Some of the keys involve subjective judgments, such as determining whether a candidate is charismatic or whether an administration has achieved a major policy change. Different analysts could interpret these keys differently, leading to varied predictions.

The "13 Keys" model has shown remarkable resilience and accuracy in past elections, but like all predictive models, it is not infallible. It's essential to consider these limitations and the unique circumstances of each election cycle when applying the keys to future elections.

How does this compare to standard betting odds & polls?

Similar accuracy (9/10)

Betting odds (i.e. Vegas odds) have been historically very accurate in predicting winners of presidential elections.

The only major “miss” for betting odds was in 2016 when Hillary Clinton was favored to win the presidential election (Trump won).

Providing the odds for every presidential election since 1984 in terms of who was favored to win versus who actually won requires a look into historical betting markets, polls, and, where available, prediction markets.

The landscape of betting and prediction on U.S. presidential elections has evolved, with more sophisticated and publicly accessible data in recent years compared to earlier elections.

1984: Ronald Reagan vs. Walter Mondale

·      Favored: Ronald Reagan was heavily favored to win reelection.

·      Winner: Ronald Reagan won in a landslide victory.

1988: George H.W. Bush vs. Michael Dukakis

·      Favored: George H.W. Bush became the favorite by the summer, after trailing in early polls.

·      Winner: George H.W. Bush won the election.

1992: George H.W. Bush vs. Bill Clinton

·      Favored: Bill Clinton became the favorite by the fall, despite early polls suggesting a close race or a lead for Bush.

·      Winner: Bill Clinton won the election.

1996: Bill Clinton vs. Bob Dole

·      Favored: Bill Clinton was favored to win reelection.

·      Winner: Bill Clinton won reelection.

2000: George W. Bush vs. Al Gore

·      Favored: This was a very close race with fluctuating odds, but George W. Bush had slight favor in many betting markets by Election Day.

·      Winner: George W. Bush won the election, though Al Gore won the popular vote.

2004: George W. Bush vs. John Kerry

·      Favored: George W. Bush was generally favored to win reelection.

·      Winner: George W. Bush won reelection.

2008: Barack Obama vs. John McCain

·      Favored: Barack Obama became the clear favorite by the fall.

·      Winner: Barack Obama won the election.

2012: Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney

·      Favored: Barack Obama was favored to win reelection, though some polls suggested a close race.

·      Winner: Barack Obama won reelection.

2016: Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

·      Favored: Hillary Clinton was heavily favored to win in polls and betting markets.

·      Winner: Donald Trump won the election, though Hillary Clinton won the popular vote.

2020: Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

·      Favored: Joe Biden was favored to win in most polls and betting markets.

·      Winner: Joe Biden won the election.

Will the 2024 election follow the standard “13 keys”?

The economy is doing well – which favors the status quo (Biden).

However, people have some concerns with: illegal immigration, crime, forced DEI, and age (cognition, longevity, potential Kamala Harris as president).

Trump also recently took his “Trump Media & Technology Group” company public which trades under the ticker symbol “DJT” (Trumps initials) – and it went viral akin to “meme stocks.”

Trump is barred from selling shares until a 6-month lockup period expires… but if he can somehow cash out a significant amount of money to spend on marketing – he may win.

Most people think Trump would’ve won in 2020 if no COVID & COVID-related economic decline… as well as if he wasn’t so polarizing (many voted Biden just because they hate Trump).

However, many people predicted Republicans would dominate mid-term elections in 2022 – but this didn’t happen… and Trump-backed candidates got smoked.

It’s difficult to say whether this election will follow the “13 keys” formula presented by Litchman.

Who would win the “13 Keys to the White House” if the 2024 presidential election were today (April 2024)?

As of the latest analysis and information available from a January 2024 publication from Allan Lichtman. (R)

1. Party Mandate: False. Democrats lost seats in the 2022 midterm elections.

2. No Primary Contest: True. No significant challenge to Biden within the Democratic Party.

3. Incumbent Seeking Re-election: True. Joe Biden is seeking re-election.

4. No Significant Third Party: Leans False. RFK Jr. has exceeded the 10% threshold in early polling.

5. Strong Short-term Economy: Leans True. The economy is not in recession, indicating positive short-term economic conditions.

6. Strong Long-term Economy: Leans True. Indications of real per capita economic growth matching or exceeding previous terms.

7. Major Policy Change: True. Significant policy changes have been enacted during Biden's term.

8. No Social Unrest: Leans True. No sustained social unrest during the term, although this is subject to change.

9. No Scandal: Leans True. No major scandals directly impacting the Biden administration.

10. No Foreign/Military Failure: Leans False. Various international challenges could be considered as failures.

11. Major Foreign/Military Success: Leans False. No significant universally recognized foreign or military successes.

12. Incumbent Charisma: False. Biden is not considered charismatic in the manner defined by Lichtman's keys.

13. Challenger Charisma: False. Trump's charisma does not have the bipartisan appeal necessary to fit Lichtman's criteria for this key.

For an incumbent to lose, according to Lichtman's model, 6 or more keys would need to be False.

In this scenario, the count is close, with the potential for the incumbent party to either just secure or lose the election depending on how the leaning keys ultimately fall.

Based on the provided assessment and assuming all "leans" become definitive, the model would suggest a highly competitive scenario that marginally favors the challenging party (Donald Trump) to win the 2024 presidential election, based on the threshold of six or more false keys being met.

What is my prediction for the 2024 presidential election?

I’m leaning slightly towards Trump for the 2024 election, but think making a prediction here is difficult for a variety of reasons.

In the 2020 U.S. election, Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump 306 to 232 (electoral votes).

For the popular vote: Biden received 81,282,916 total votes (51.3%) vs. 74,223,369 (51.3%) for Trump.

Obviously if Biden has a major medical emergency prior to the election (which is possible given his old age) – this would significantly increase odds of a Trump win.

Many people thought Ron DeSantis had a chance to beat Trump for the Republican nominee in 2024 – but DeSantis got smoked… Republicans love Trump.

• Biggest positives for Biden: Not Trump; excellent economy; non-isolationist (maintains relationships with other countries); less polarizing than Trump; boring; effective at getting things done (or at least his team is).

• Biggest negatives for Biden: Age (would be the oldest president ever); cognition (clear deficits – possible Parkinson’s); forced DEI (diversity-equity-inclusion) & discriminates against whites/males; illegal immigration; global conflicts; COVID over; might die (old age).

• Positives for Trump: seeds of doubt (many believe he won the last election); cult-like following (in Republican party); good economy pre-COVID; probably would’ve won if no COVID (last election); younger than Biden; better cognition than Biden; has plans to target illegal immigration, clean up crime, cut taxes, etc.

• Biggest negatives for Trump: Ineffective at passing legislation (even with majority – zero useful plans); isolationist (U.S. will lose influence and global power); demographic changes (tend to skew democrat/liberal); lawsuits; compulsive lying & conspiracies; unable to handle serious event (COVID); supports abortion ban.

What do you think about the 2024 election?

Who do you think will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election? (Explain)

Do you use any specific methods in attempt to accurately predict the presidential election winner? (If so, what are they?)

Do you think the “13 Keys to the White House” is as reliable as just checking betting odds and/or prediction markets?