Ohio State (OSU) (#6) vs. Notre Dame (#5): CFB Championship 2025 Prediction
OSU takes on Notre Dame in the CFB 2025 Championship... I think OSU wins
Tonight is the 2025 College Football (CFB) Playoff Championship between OSU (#6 ranked) & Notre Dame Fighting Irish (#5 ranked).
My gut tells me OSU wins… not something I’m betting on… don’t really see any edge here with the current odds.
I used AI to help me synthesize all the data (mostly o1-pro) and determine how this game is likely to go. (Could be way off and crazy things can happen in a 1-and-done championship game far removed from the regular season).
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame (2025 CFB Championship): Overview
Teams: Ohio State Buckeyes (13-2) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (14-1)
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA) — Indoors
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Current Line: Ohio State −8.5
Total (O/U): 45.5
Moneyline Range: Ohio State around -400 (implied 79%); Notre Dame +320 (implied 21–22%)
Both teams are Top 5 in scoring defense, and each is coming off impressive playoff runs.
Ohio State has been the more heavily favored side, thanks to a potent offense and the country’s top scoring defense (allowing 12.2 points per game).
Notre Dame has thrived on resilience, special teams, and a balanced offense featuring a mobile quarterback in Riley Leonard.
2025 CFB Championship Team Comparison: OSU (#6) vs. Notre Dame (#5)
A.) Ohio State Buckeyes
Record: 13-2
Balanced Offense: 35.8 PPG (8th nationally). QB Will Howard (3,779 yards, 33 TD) orchestrates an explosive passing attack featuring freshman sensation Jeremiah Smith (1,227 yards, 14 TD). The backfield of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins combines for nearly 2,000 rushing yards.
Dominant Defense (1st in scoring defense at ~12.2 PPG). The pass coverage ranks top two nationally, and the front four generates havoc (4th in havoc rate).
Key Injuries:
DE J.T. Tuimoloau (ankle) expected near full strength.
CB Denzel Burke (upper body) also close to 100%.
WR Jeremiah Smith has been spotted with a wrapped hamstring, but is likely to play.
X-Factor: A healthy Jeremiah Smith is a mismatch for almost any secondary. If his hamstring issue limits him, Ohio State still has ample talent at WR (Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate) to stretch the field.
B.) Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Record: 14-1
Physical Defense (2nd in scoring defense at ~14.3 PPG). Anchored by LB Jack Kiser and a ballhawking secondary (Xavier Watts leads with 6 INT), Notre Dame’s defense sparked upset wins over Georgia and Penn State.
Dual-Threat QB: Riley Leonard (2,600+ passing yards, ~866 rushing yards) extends plays and can punish defenders with his legs.
Balanced Scoring: 37.0 PPG (3rd nationally). The ground game behind Jeremiyah Love (1,122 yards) and Leonard has been especially lethal.
Key Injuries:
LT Anthonie Knapp (ankle) is out; redshirt freshman Charles Jagusah fills in.
RB Jeremiyah Love (knee) is playable but may not be 100%.
WR Beaux Collins (calf) declared himself 100%.
DL Rylie Mills and TE Cooper Flannigan remain out.
X-Factor: Whether a patchwork O-line (minus Knapp) can hold up against Ohio State’s fierce edge rushers. If Leonard has time, he can keep OSU’s defense off-balance with read options and scramble plays.
OSU vs. Notre Dame 2025: Key Matchups & Storylines
1. Ohio State’s Passing Offense vs. Notre Dame’s Secondary
Jeremiah Smith’s hamstring bears watching. If he’s near full speed, Notre Dame’s defensive backs must tackle well and avoid getting beat over the top.
The Irish lead the nation in turnover margin (+17 range). Can they force Will Howard into a costly interception or strip-sack?
2. Notre Dame’s Rushing Attack vs. Ohio State’s Front Seven
Riley Leonard’s dual-threat dimension and RB Jeremiyah Love have carried ND’s offense through the playoffs.
Ohio State just held Texas to 58 rushing yards in the semifinal. The Buckeyes’ run fits and linebacker play have been top-tier.
3. Injuries in the Trenches
Notre Dame losing LT Anthonie Knapp means a redshirt freshman is matched up against J.T. Tuimoloau or Jack Sawyer. That mismatch could be game-defining if OSU dominates at the line of scrimmage.
Notre Dame’s D-line is also missing Rylie Mills, a key interior pass rusher, which may open run lanes for Henderson/Judkins.
4. Special Teams & “Hidden Yards”
ND’s special teams coordinator, Marty Biagi, is aggressive: the Irish have multiple blocked punts/FGs, plus a 98-yard kick return vs. Georgia.
If Notre Dame can replicate a game-changing special teams play, it could shift momentum.
5. Championship Pedigree
Ryan Day has coached for the national title before (lost in 2020). This is Marcus Freeman’s first.
Notre Dame is seeking its first ring since 1988. Ohio State is chasing its first since 2014.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame 2025 CFB Championship Prediction
Final Score: Ohio State 31, Notre Dame 24
The Buckeyes’ defense is the most complete unit Notre Dame has faced, especially if Jeremiah Smith is healthy enough to occupy ND’s safeties. Even if the Irish secondary keys on Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate can produce chunk plays.
Notre Dame can stay competitive if it wins the turnover battle (as it often does), but offensive line injuries—especially at left tackle—make it tough to sustain drives.
Expect a one-score game for much of the evening, with Ohio State’s depth and pass rush wearing down Notre Dame in the fourth quarter.
Win Probability & Confidence
Odds of an Ohio State Victory: ~72–75%
Odds of a Notre Dame Victory: ~25–28%
The market (moneyline at ~-400 / +320) implies OSU at ~79–80%. This is slightly higher than our 72–75% range, so the market is more bullish on Ohio State than the model.
Who is the “smart money” for betting?
I don’t endorse gambling. If I were to bet I’d take OSU. However, just because I think OSU is likely to win doesn’t mean they’re actually the smarter bet.
Disclaimer: None of this is gambling/betting advice. Just speculation for fun.
Point Spread (-8.5)
Our projected final of 31-24 implies a 7-point difference, which is slightly less than the market’s 8.5-point spread.
Assuming we think the final margin will be within 1 TD, taking Notre Dame +8.5 could be a small lean. However, the difference between 7 points and 8.5 is not huge. We’d want at least a 2–3 point discrepancy for a strong edge.
O/U Total (45.5)
Our final (31-24) hits 55 total points. If we’re comfortable with both defenses, we might see a slightly lower total. However, the “mid-50s” combined is a bit above 45.5. That suggests a possible lean to the Over if we trust our final score prediction.
Net result: The difference between 45.5 and an expected ~55 is fairly large. That suggests a possible Over lean if your final is indeed 31-24. (If you trust the scoreboard to remain closer to the defensive nature many expect, you might pass.)
(If your final personal best guess is in the mid-to-high 40s rather than 55, ignore the above Over angle.)
Moneyline
Polymarket/other lines often price OSU around 79–80% to win.
Our model’s ~72–75% suggests ND is undervalued at +320 (implied ~22–23%). That means a small +EV if you believe wholeheartedly in our 25–28% ND probability. But remember, ND is still the underdog, and you’ll lose that bet more often than you win.
Verdict for Betting
If you trust the scoreboard to climb to the high 40s or low 50s, the Over (45.5) might offer some value.
If your confidence is unwavering that OSU is only a ~72–75% favorite (instead of 80%), then Notre Dame on the moneyline at +300 or more has some small positive expected value.
Spread wise, ND +8.5 is a mild lean if you see a 7–10 point OSU win, but not a massive edge.
Because the difference between our model and the market is modest, none of these angles scream huge alpha. The smallest mismatch might be the ND moneyline if you want to gamble on an upset at a theoretically underpriced line.
But from a pure probability standpoint, Ohio State is still the most likely winner.
Final Take: Ohio State Beats ND
Expected Outcome: Ohio State wins 31-24.
Confidence: ~70–75% in an OSU victory.
Betting Alpha: Slight lean on Notre Dame moneyline if you trust our model (ND’s implied odds are lower than the model’s). Spread value is mild at best, with ND +8.5 a possible small-play. Over/Under is subject to whether you believe the final will truly reach the low 50s or remain a defense-first battle in the 40s.
Either way, we should see a competitive, hard-fought national championship in Atlanta, with Ohio State looking to validate its top-ranked defense and Notre Dame aiming to end a decades-long title drought. Enjoy the game.