2025 NCAA March Madness Pre-Tournament Injury Report: Key Injuries & Bracket Adjustments
Considering key player injuries and how they may impact odds of winning the NCAA championship in 2025...
The March Madness 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament starts tomorrow. I’ve filled out some brackets… seems as though everyone is picking Duke… also seems as though Duke is the smartest pick given their depth, consistency, momentum, and performance under pressure.
When making my picks I usually check out Kenpom to cut through a lot of the bullshit noise… focusing on the statistical rankings (rather than the “seeds” — though they are often mostly aligned).
Stats are nice, but completely irrelevant if teams are missing some of their key/best players and/or if teams are hobbled (major players at ~75% strength) or fragile (one little ding and they’re done for the tournament). Below are some variables to gloss over (don’t need to go crazy… just focus on the major injuries on key teams).
Variables to consider:
Key injuries: Are any of the starters injured or unavailable for the tournament? The absence of a starter can drastically alter a team’s chances of making a deep run.
Overall team injury impact: How many starters and total players are dealing with injuries? If players are available — are they performing significantly below 100%?
Severity & recovery status: What about the severity of recent injuries. Were they minor setbacks or serious enough to potential cripple performance? Are recovering players fully ready to play at their usual level?
Rust from recent return: Are any players returning from injuries that may have some lingering rust and/or conditioning issues? Players that return from extended injuries often need time to get back in the swing of things.
Fragility & risk of re-injury: How likely are previously injured players, even if reportedly “playing” or “near full strength” — to get re-injured. A minor setback could prematurely end their team’s tournament run — especially if the player is returning before it’s optimal to do so.
Bench depth & replacement quality: Does the team have good replacement players? Any studs on the bench? Or mostly garbage? Occasionally teams have surprises off the bench… immediately writing them off because a star player is injured isn’t always smart.
If you want an ultra-simple (borderline braindead) way to pick the tournament in 2025 — you can do something like:
Kenpom ranking chalk picks, revise a few team trajectories based on major injuries, and you’ll probably outperform many… you could also factor in momentum (pre-tourney), specific matchups/draw, SOS, size/tempo, personal favorites, and/or gut shots.
Key Injuries in the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament (March Madness)
I may have missed some injuries here… but below are some of the key injuries to consider for the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball tournament. This little cheat sheet will give you some things to think about when filling out your bracket.
Top Seeds Injury Updates
Duke Blue Devils (#1 East)
Injuries: Cooper Flagg (F) – sprained left ankle in the ACC semifinals; Maliq Brown (G/F) – shoulder injury.
Severity: Flagg hasn’t played since the injury last week, but head coach Jon Scheyer says the freshman phenom is “full steam ahead” to return in Duke’s first game Friday. Brown, a defensive stopper (1.3 steals per game), could miss significant time with his shoulder injury.
Impact: Flagg is Duke’s leading scorer and a National Player of the Year contender, so his absence would dramatically drop the Blue Devils’ offensive and defensive efficiency. Even though Duke managed to win the ACC Tournament without him, sportsbooks briefly lengthened Duke’s title odds from +325 to +375 after Flagg went down. He’s estimated to be worth 4-5 points on the betting spread when fully healthy. Brown’s loss slightly weakens one of the nation’s elite defenses.
Depth/Backups: In Flagg’s absence, fellow freshmen like Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach took on bigger roles, and Duke’s deep rotation helped them survive. Brown’s minutes will be picked up by reserve wings – Duke has enough depth to cover for one role player loss.
Bracket Outlook: With Flagg expected to play near full strength, Duke remains a top championship favorite (still +325-350 odds to win it all). If Flagg were limited, the Blue Devils’ Final Four chances would dim, but as is they should advance deep. Brown’s injury alone isn’t likely to derail Duke, but any setback for Flagg could alter a title run.
Houston Cougars (#1 Midwest)
Injury: J’Wan Roberts (F) – ankle sprain.
Severity: Roberts, Houston’s star forward, missed the last two games of the Big 12 tournament with an ankle injury. The team announced he is ready to go for the NCAA tournament.
Impact: Roberts is a key inside presence for Houston. Without him in the conference tourney, the Cougars weren’t quite as dominant, but they did finish 19-1 in Big 12 play. His return restores a top rebounder and paint defender to a squad already ranked 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Depth: Houston managed those games with others stepping up (Mylos Uzan and L.J. Cryer shouldering more scoring), but Roberts’ return means less lineup shuffling.
Bracket Outlook: Assuming Roberts is healthy, Houston is at full strength again and a bona fide title contender. The Cougars’ path in the bracket shouldn’t be adjusted downward – if anything, bettors can be confident in Houston knowing Roberts is available.
Alabama Crimson Tide (#2 East)
Injury: Grant Nelson (F) – leg injury.
Severity: Nelson, Alabama’s star forward (and last year’s Final Four breakout with 19 points in the semifinal), sustained a leg injury in the SEC Tournament semifinal loss. He is officially questionable for Friday’s first-round game vs. Robert Morris, and the team said the injury “might impact his playing time” going forward.
Impact: Nelson is a focal point of the Tide’s fast-paced offense (Alabama plays at the nation’s fastest tempo). If he’s limited or out, Alabama loses an inside-out scoring threat and a veteran leader. A shaky Crimson Tide defense would also miss his rebounding and rim protection. Alabama already struggled down the stretch (3-4 to end the regular season), so Nelson’s absence could further hurt their efficiency on both ends.
Depth: Guard Mark Sears (19.2 PPG) will shoulder even more of the scoring load. The Tide have other forwards, but none with Nelson’s versatile skill set. Freshman bigs will need to step up by committee if he can’t go.
Bracket Outlook: If Nelson can’t play in the opening rounds, Alabama becomes more upset-prone despite their #2 seed. They should still get past a 15-seed without him, but their Sweet 16 odds would shrink. With Nelson healthy, Alabama has Final Four potential; without him, downgrade the Tide’s ceiling to maybe the Sweet 16. Monitor his status – a fully active Nelson keeps Alabama as a dark-horse contender, whereas prolonged absence would justify picking an early upset.
Note: #1 seed Auburn (South), #1 Florida (West), #2 Tennessee (Midwest) and #2 St. John’s (West) have no significant injury concerns reported, so projections remain unchanged.
Key Injuries for #3, #4, #5 Seed Teams
Iowa State Cyclones (#3 South)
Injuries: Keshon Gilbert (G) – groin/muscle strain; Tamin Lipsey (G) – lower body (groin).
Severity: Head coach T.J. Otzelberger announced that Gilbert – an All-Big 12 guard – will miss the entire NCAA Tournament as he continues rehab. Gilbert had been dealing with a stubborn groin injury and sat out 4 of the last 7 games. On the positive side, starting point guard Lipsey (10.8 PPG) is expected to return for the tournament after missing the Big 12 tourney.
Impact: Losing Gilbert is a huge blow – he leads ISU in assists and minutes and is the 2nd-leading scorer (13.4 PPG). The Cyclones’ offense noticeably slipped late in the season as Gilbert battled injuries. They were a top-15 offense early on but fell to 69th in adjusted offensive efficiency after mid-January. Turnovers also spiked to an alarming 20% of possessions during that span. Without Gilbert’s playmaking and defensive tenacity, Iowa State is not the same team that started 15-1.
Depth: Lipsey’s return is timely – he will resume point guard duties and is a capable floor general (former all-conference selection). He, along with Curtis Jones (17.0 PPG), will have to carry the backcourt. The Cyclones have some bench guards, but depth is a concern – rotations were shuffled in the Big 12 quarterfinal loss with both Gilbert and Lipsey out.
Bracket Outlook: Iowa State’s ceiling is lowered significantly without Gilbert. As a 3-seed, they are still favored in Round 1, but a potential second-round matchup becomes much more dangerous. An Elite Eight run that looked possible in January now seems unlikely. Bracket pickers may consider ISU a candidate for a surprise early upset given this backcourt disruption, despite their high seed.
Kentucky Wildcats (#3 Midwest)
Injuries: Jaxson Robinson (G/F) – wrist (season-ending); Lamont Butler (G) – shoulder.
Severity: The Wildcats’ season has been marred by injuries. Robinson, a starting wing and one of Kentucky’s best shooters, suffered a wrist injury and is out for the season. Butler, a veteran point guard, missed time late in the year with a shoulder injury, returned, then aggravated it in the SEC tournament. The good news is Kentucky now reports Butler will be available in the NCAA tournament. He’s not 100% but is expected to start.
Impact: Robinson’s loss thins Kentucky’s rotation – he was a versatile 3-and-D player averaging double figures. Only four Wildcats played all 31 games this year, underscoring how banged-up the roster has been. Butler’s presence, however, is crucial: upon his initial return late in the season, Kentucky’s previously shaky defense dramatically improved, climbing into the top-40 nationally. He’s a floor leader (11.9 PPG, 4.4 APG) who stabilizes the offense. Kentucky without Butler again would have serious ballhandling and perimeter defensive issues.
Depth: In Robinson’s absence, wings like Otega Oweh (16.2 PPG) have stepped up as primary scorers. Koby Brea (44% 3PT) provides shooting to replace Robinson’s output. If Butler is limited, freshman DJ Wagner and transfer Antonio Reeves would share point guard duties – a drop-off in playmaking, as we saw during Butler’s injuries.
Bracket Outlook: Kentucky “might be short-handed, but it still has a high ceiling” when Butler plays. With their point guard in the lineup, the Wildcats are an Elite Eight-caliber team. If Butler’s shoulder acts up, Kentucky becomes upset-prone. As things stand (Butler active), you can keep Kentucky advancing in your bracket, but probably not beyond the Elite Eight. If any late setback occurs with his shoulder, consider downgrading UK’s prospects by a round.
Memphis Tigers (#5 West)
Injury: Tyrese Hunter (G) – foot/ankle injury.
Severity: Hunter, an all-AAC first team guard, injured his foot in the AAC tournament semifinals (reportedly by stepping on a teammate’s foot). He was in a walking boot during the AAC title game and is highly questionable to play in the NCAA first round. Coach Penny Hardaway called it a “difficult situation” and has not declared Hunter out officially, but it “doesn’t look good” for his availability.
Impact: This is a significant loss – Hunter is Memphis’s floor leader (and a former Big 12 starter). Along with AAC Player of the Year PJ Haggerty, he powered a Tigers offense that ranks top-50 in efficiency. Without Hunter, Memphis loses a primary ball-handler, a 15+ point scorer, and an experienced tournament guard (Hunter played in March Madness with Texas last year). The Tigers’ defense (top-50 nationally) will still fight, but offensively they could struggle to create shots in high-pressure moments without their point guard.
Depth: Memphis does have backcourt depth. Sophomore Jayden Hardaway and others will see increased minutes. Haggerty (the AAC POY) will have to do even more as a scorer and distributor. Freshman guards who saw limited action may be forced into the rotation. Still, no one truly replaces Hunter’s blend of experience and two-way play.
Bracket Outlook: Memphis’s upside takes a hit. With Hunter, this 29-5 team had Sweet 16 ambitions. If he cannot go, winning two games becomes much tougher – their first-round game becomes essentially a toss-up instead of a solid win. Bracket recommendation: If no definitive update comes, consider Memphis a risk to fall earlier than expected (perhaps in Round of 64 or 32) due to this injury. If somehow Hunter suits up, Memphis could still make a second-weekend run, but that appears unlikely as of now.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (#3 West)
Injuries: Darrion Williams (F) and Chance McMillian (G) – various injuries.
Severity: Both Williams and McMillian missed the Big 12 Tournament games due to injuries, but Texas Tech has indicated both will be ready for the NCAA Tournament. Neither injury is expected to limit them going forward.
Impact: Williams and McMillian are starters/rotation stalwarts. Williams is a versatile forward and one of Tech’s better rebounders, while McMillian provides backcourt shooting. The Red Raiders did fine in their absence (they still nearly won the Big 12 title), but having them back makes this already balanced team even stronger.
Depth: In their brief absence, other players filled in – but Texas Tech’s depth was tested. With them active, Tech can deploy its normal 8-9 man rotation. Star forward JT Toppin (18.1 PPG, 9.3 RPG) won’t have to carry quite as much of the load.
Bracket Outlook: Texas Tech actually enters the Big Dance at full strength now. The injuries shouldn’t scare anyone off the Red Raiders – if anything, the rest they got could have them fresher. Feel confident picking Tech according to its seed (they look every bit a Final Four dark horse when healthy). No bracket adjustment needed here, other than perhaps upgrading Tech’s chances knowing those two are back in the mix.
Notable Injuries on Lower Seeds
Creighton Bluejays (#9 South)
Injury: Pop Isaacs (G) – knee injury, out for season.
Details: Creighton suffered a major setback back in early December when starting point guard Pop Isaacs went down with a season-ending knee injury. This occurred just hours after he dropped 27 points in a Dec. 4 win over Kansas. Isaacs, a transfer and the team’s most promising new addition, was lost for the year only 8 games into the season.
Impact: Without Isaacs, Creighton lost a dynamic playmaker (he was averaging in the mid-teens and was a high-caliber ball-handler). The Bluejays had to regroup on the fly – their offense became more post-centric around big man Ryan Kalkbrenner and guard Steven Ashworth. To their credit, Creighton stabilized and still earned a tournament bid, but their ceiling likely dropped.
Depth: Coach Greg McDermott adjusted by giving more responsibility to Ashworth (16.5 PPG, 7.0 APG), a veteran PG, and leaning on Kalkbrenner’s inside presence. The backcourt depth behind Isaacs was young; they’ve grown over the season, but it’s a shorter rotation.
Bracket Outlook: Creighton is not as dangerous a giant-killer as they would have been with Isaacs. As a 9-seed, they still have upset potential in Round 1, but against top teams they might lack that extra creator. If you were eyeing Creighton for a Cinderella run, temper those expectations slightly – the roster they have now is solid but not at full strength compared to December.
Baylor Bears (#9 East)
Injury: Jeremy Roach (G) – nagging injuries.
Details: Baylor’s backcourt got a high-profile transfer in Jeremy Roach from Duke, but he has “dealt with injuries” throughout the season and has been inconsistent as a result. Roach even lost his starting job late in the year; he was limited to just 7 total points in Baylor’s final two games as his health and form faltered.
Impact: Roach was expected to be the veteran floor leader for the Bears. His injury issues (reportedly a toe and hamstring, per team reports) hindered Baylor’s offense – they never became the high-powered unit they looked like “on paper.” The Bears finished only 10-10 in Big 12 play, partly due to lack of backcourt continuity.
Depth: Baylor does have other guards – freshman Dantwan Grimes filled in admirably when Roach sat, and big man Norchad Omier (15.6 PPG, 10.7 RPG) carried a lot of load inside. But without Roach at 100%, the team’s projected strengths (guard play) became a weakness.
Bracket Outlook: Now a 9-seed, Baylor “snuck into the Dance” and isn’t expected to go far. If Roach were fully healthy and playing to his capability, this team would be far more dangerous. As is, Baylor’s odds of an upset run are lower – you might favor the 8-seed in their 8/9 matchup. Unless Roach suddenly rounds into form, Baylor likely bows out early, consistent with their underachieving, injury-plagued season.
Arkansas Razorbacks (#10 West)
Injuries: Boogie Fland (G) – broken hand (thumb); Adou Thiero (G) – knee injury.
Severity: Arkansas was hit by early injuries to its two leading scorers. Fland, a star freshman point guard (15.1 PPG, 5.7 APG), suffered a thumb fracture in January and was initially thought lost for the season. Remarkably, the school announced he has healed enough to return for the NCAA tournament, pending no setbacks in practice. He has missed the past 15 games but is expected to suit up. Thiero, a junior guard averaging a team-high ~16 PPG, has been dealing with a knee injury and missed the last six games of the season. His status for the tournament is uncertain – he’s day-to-day and was not guaranteed to play as of Selection Sunday.
Impact: These two accounted for a huge chunk of the Razorbacks’ offense. Without them, Arkansas struggled mightily, going 0-5 to start SEC play and only 8-10 in conference. John Calipari had assembled a roster of five-star recruits and transfers at Arkansas, but with injuries “decimating the roster” early on, the team never met expectations. If Fland can play, Arkansas regains a creative playmaker and floor general – a huge boost. If Thiero remains out, they still lack their go-to scorer and shooter on the wing.
Depth: In Fland’s absence, freshman Karter Knox took on more guard duties and showed flashes. Transfers D.J. Wagner and Johnell Davis have been the primary playmakers with Fland out. They’ll continue to carry the load if Thiero can’t go. Arkansas had to use multiple lineup variations the past two months, which at least means many role players have experience now.
Bracket Outlook: This is a tricky evaluation. With Fland returning, Arkansas is more dangerous than a typical 10-seed – he was a catalyst in big early wins (20 points, 7 assists vs. Michigan in December). However, if Thiero is still out, the Hogs still aren’t at full power. The recommendation: consider Arkansas a potential first-round upset pick if Fland looks sharp in practice reports – they could knock off a 7-seed if their point guard is back. But without Thiero, don’t expect a deep run. Any bracket advancement should be modest (Round of 32 ceiling) given the chemistry disruptions and lingering questions. In short, Arkansas is a high-variance team in the bracket – their outlook improves if Fland thrives, but remains capped without Thiero (adjust your picks accordingly).
Note: There are likely more injuries than those listed here… This list focuses on key injuries on teams that actually have a chance to win it or make deep runs (i.e. top 10 seeds). Lower seeded/less relevant teams were mostly ignored because I’m not picking them to go far.
Depth Chart Adjustments & Bench Players (2025)
Injuries force teams to adjust their rotations on the fly. Here’s how some contenders are compensating for key losses:
Duke: With Maliq Brown out, Duke loses its defensive anchor in the post. They’ll need other forwards (e.g. graduate center Ryan Young or freshman Sean Stewart) to fill the gap and protect the rim. The Blue Devils’ elite defense will be tested – Brown’s absence “will hurt Duke’s depth” on that end, so role players must step up. Offensively, if Flagg’s ankle limits him at all in the opening game, expect junior wing Mark Mitchell and freshman guard Jared McCain to shoulder more scoring until Flagg is full-speed. The ACC final showed Duke can survive short-term without Flagg, but over the long haul others must elevate their games to replace what he and Brown provide.
Alabama: If Grant Nelson can’t play (or is limited), the Crimson Tide must patch the frontcourt with their bench. Coach Nate Oats will likely turn to forwards like Nick Pringle and Mo Dioubate to absorb Nelson’s minutes at power forward. Alabama becomes a smaller, guard-oriented team without Nelson – we saw in the SEC semifinal that the Tide struggled to defend the paint and rebound after he went out. Freshman wing Jarin Stevenson (a capable scorer at 6’10”) could also see an increased role if available. In short, Alabama will lean on a “next man up” committee to replace Nelson’s ~12 points and 8 boards. The team’s style may shift to more perimeter play to compensate for the loss of their best interior presence.
Iowa State: The Cyclones are now without Keshon Gilbert, so the onus falls on sophomore guard Tamin Lipsey to run the offense. Lipsey, if healthy enough to play through his groin issue, becomes the primary ball-handler and will play heavy minutes at point guard. Iowa State literally cannot afford another backcourt injury – depth is thin. Senior transfer Curtis Jones (the next-best creator) and freshman Milan Momčilović may see expanded backcourt duties to help replace Gilbert’s 13+ points and leadership. Coach T.J. Otzelberger will likely slow the tempo and lean on ISU’s defense to manage without Gilbert. As SIC Analytics noted, Lipsey’s health is “paramount for Iowa State” now. Expect the Cyclones to use a shorter rotation; role players who were on the fringes will be called upon to handle significant minutes in the backcourt.
Kentucky: The Wildcats are improvising in the backcourt after losing two key guards. Point guard Lamont Butler’s return from injury is a relief – he will quarterback the offense and bring defensive intensity. However, Butler himself is just coming off a shoulder sprain, so Kentucky must monitor him closely. With Jaxson Robinson out, Kentucky loses a sharpshooter, so freshman guards DJ Wagner and Reed Sheppard will need to provide more scoring on the perimeter. Kentucky’s staff has likely elevated Sheppard (a capable three-point shooter) into Robinson’s spot in the wing rotation. Meanwhile, sophomore Adou Thiero and others may see more time to spell Butler at point, since Kerr Kriisa is gone. The “recent return of [Lamont] Butler is a much-needed boost”, but the Wildcats still have a thin guard corps. Coach Mark Pope may even deploy a bigger lineup – using forwards to initiate offense – to offset the lack of backcourt depth. Ultimately, Kentucky’s remaining stars (center Aaron Bradshaw, forward Justin Edwards, etc.) must take on heavier loads to compensate for the lost backcourt production.
Houston: The Cougars’ contingency plan for J’Wan Roberts’ ankle injury revolves around freshman center Joseph Tugler and a small-ball approach. During Roberts’ absence in the Big 12 tourney, Houston gave Tugler extended minutes – with mixed results. If Roberts is limited or tweaks the ankle again, Kelvin Sampson will either trust Tugler to man the paint or shift 6’8” forward J’Wan Roberts (if available – presumably meaning others like Ja’Vier Francis) to the 5 with a four-guard lineup. Houston’s depth at center is “lacking” beyond Roberts, so they may compensate with their depth on the wing. For example, swingman Tramon Mark and guard Jamal Shead might crash the boards more to help inside. The hope for Houston is that Roberts can play through it; if not, every forward on the roster will need to chip in to maintain the Cougars’ defensive identity inside.
Memphis: The Tigers are preparing to play without point guard Tyrese Hunter to start the tournament. In practices this week, coach Penny Hardaway likely shifted combo guard Caleb Mills into the starting point guard role (Mills has experience running an offense from his time at Florida State). Backup PG Jayden Hardaway (Penny’s son) will also see more minutes to spell Mills. Additionally, Memphis might initiate offense through wing DeAndre Williams (an excellent passer in the high post) to lessen the burden on the guards. Without Hunter, Memphis loses its fastest playmaker, so their tempo may drop a bit. They’ll rely on Mills, Hardaway, and senior SG Damaria Franklin to committee the playmaking duties. Defensively, Hunter was a steals leader, so Memphis may play more zone or conservative man-to-man to avoid foul trouble, since their guard depth is thinner. Hardaway described Hunter as the team’s engine – without him, the Tigers will try to compensate with collective effort and hope for a quick recovery if they advance.
Clemson: With Dillon Hunter sidelined, Clemson will tighten its backcourt rotation. Veteran guards Chase Hunter (no relation) and Alex Hemenway will likely play nearly the entire game now, as they did for stretches of the season. Coach Brad Brownell may move swingman Ian Schieffelin or point-forward Hunter Tyson (if still on roster as a super-senior) into more ball-handling situations to spell the guards. Essentially, Clemson loses one of its first guards off the bench, so an end-of-bench player like Josh Beadle could see minutes for the first time in high-leverage situations. Expect Clemson to stick with a 7-man rotation; Dillon Hunter had started 9 of the last 12 games, so his injury forces the Tigers to revert to their previous starting lineup and shorten the bench. The remaining backcourt must avoid foul trouble, as depth is now a concern.
Others: Arkansas, missing multiple scorers, has likely promoted bench players into starting roles – but the drop-off has been evident in their recent results. St. John’s and Michigan State, on the other hand, haven’t had to adjust rotations at all (no key injuries), which could be an advantage as they face potentially weakened opponents. For lower seeds dealing with injuries (like VCU or SDSU, if any minor injuries occurred), their coaches are in “all hands on deck” mode – every healthy player must be ready to contribute. In March, even a seldom-used reserve can become a hero when a teammate goes down.
Bracket Implications & Betting Odds Shifts
Injuries aren’t just medical storylines – they have real effects on how far teams are expected to go, and even on betting markets.
Duke’s Title Odds: Duke was the consensus championship favorite (+300) entering the tournament. When Cooper Flagg sprained his ankle in the ACC tourney, sportsbooks reacted – Caesars moved Duke’s odds from +325 to +375 once the injury news hit. In other words, Duke became a slightly less favored bet to win it all due to uncertainty about Flagg’s status. One bookmaker estimated Flagg is worth “4.5 to 5 points” to the point spread for Duke, underlining how impactful his absence would be. Now that Flagg is expected to play in the NCAAs, Duke’s odds have stabilized (a flood of money actually came in on Duke once the bracket was revealed). Still, that brief swing shows how a potential injury to a star immediately altered the championship outlook. If Flagg had been ruled out, Duke’s Final Four odds would have plummeted – as one analyst put it, Duke isn’t “Final Four good” without him. With Flagg healthy, however, the Blue Devils remain a top pick to reach the Final Four and beyond.
Alabama & East Region: Alabama’s path as a 2-seed in the East grew more perilous with Nelson’s injury. The Tide’s odds to make the Final Four were about +220 (roughly a 31% chance) prior to Nelson getting hurt. If Nelson can’t play or is limited, those odds will lengthen – bettors and analysts are wary of a team losing a senior leader. Alabama’s potential second-round opponent could be 7-seed Saint Mary’s, a disciplined team that could exploit Nelson’s absence inside. Furthermore, the East Region also contains Duke; any setback to Alabama arguably makes Duke’s road easier. In fact, Duke and Alabama were on a collision course for the Elite Eight – but if Alabama is at less than full strength, we might see a different team (say, Saint Mary’s or 3-seed Wisconsin) emerge to challenge Duke. In short, Nelson’s status has bracketologists reconsidering Alabama as a Final Four pick. The Tide are still dangerous, but their “championship chances” would take a hit if Nelson can’t suit up.
Iowa State’s Upset Risk: When the bracket came out, some analytics gave Iowa State a decent shot at a deep run (the Cyclones were around +400 to make the Final Four). All that changed with Gilbert’s season-ending injury. Now, many expect Iowa State to underperform their seeding. Their first-round matchup against 14-seed Yale suddenly isn’t a gimme, and if they survive, a Round of 32 game against (potentially) North Carolina becomes very dangerous. The consensus is that ISU is likely to fall earlier than originally thought – a Sweet 16 or Elite 8 appearance that seemed within reach pre-injury now would be a surprise. In the South Region bracket, this injury effectively “reshuffles” the balance of power: it opens the door for another team (perhaps 2-seed Michigan State or an underdog like UNC) to advance further than they might have if Iowa State were at full strength. Betting markets have reflected this by people fading Iowa State – many brackets now have the Cyclones bowing out in the first weekend.
Kentucky and the Midwest Region: Kentucky was a popular sleeper pick to make the Final Four out of the Midwest – until their injury report piled up. With two key guards out, Vegas and pundits downgraded Kentucky’s odds. The Wildcats are still talented, but losing Robinson and Kriisa has dropped them out of the top tier of contenders. This has bracket implications: the Midwest Region (with #1 Houston and #2 Tennessee) looks a bit more straightforward now. If Kentucky doesn’t make a deep run, it removes one threat that could have upset the higher seeds. Houston in particular benefits – a potential Sweet 16 matchup against Kentucky now appears easier on paper, and the Cougars’ path to the Final Four is clearer. In essence, Kentucky’s misfortune likely “significantly challenges” their chances of advancing far, tilting the region toward the healthier teams. Bettors have noticed – Houston’s odds to win the region have ticked up slightly, and Tennessee’s as well, while Kentucky’s odds lengthened. The Wildcats went from trendy pick to longshot in the span of a couple weeks of bad injury news.
South Region (Auburn’s Quarter): Auburn remains the overall #1 seed and favorite to win the South, but Johni Broome’s nagging injuries inject some uncertainty. The Tigers were roughly -140 to make the Final Four (implied ~58% chance), reflecting a lot of confidence in them. If Broome were fully healthy, many would pencil Auburn into the Final Four without hesitation. However, if you believe Broome might be slowed by his ankle/shoulder issues, you might look for upset candidates in Auburn’s path. An 8-seed like Louisville or a 4-seed like Texas A&M could exploit a less-than-dominant Broome. In fact, one could argue the South is the toughest region – and any weakness at the top could be pounced on. That said, Auburn’s camp has expressed optimism that Broome is nearing 100%. If he indeed plays at his usual All-American level, Auburn’s outlook doesn’t change – they’re still a leading title contender. But if his injuries flare up, “Auburn’s chances of making a deep run could take a major hit.” It’s a variable that bettors are keeping an eye on. So far, Auburn’s title odds haven’t moved much, indicating belief that Broome will be fine. But his health is a subplot that could swing the entire region.
Other Betting Notes: In the West Region, top seeds Florida and St. John’s have no injury concerns – accordingly, their odds haven’t budged, and that region’s outcome is viewed as more about talent than luck. Meanwhile, 1-seed Houston’s odds stabilized once J’Wan Roberts was cleared to return; any longer absence might have made bettors bearish on Houston. First-round point spreads have also been influenced by injuries: for example, as noted, Kansas became a stronger favorite against Arkansas due to the Razorbacks’ injuries. Another instance is Memphis’ opening game – the Tigers were favored by a smaller margin than typical for a 5-seed vs 12-seed, reflecting uncertainty about Tyrese Hunter’s availability. Sportsbooks and bettors are actively adjusting to every bit of injury news, which means lines and odds can swing even in the final hours before a game. It’s a reminder that in March Madness, depth and contingency plans can matter almost as much as seeding when it comes to predicting outcomes.
Estimated Injury Impact on March Madness Brackets (2025)
Big-picture, the landscape of the tournament has only subtly shifted as a result of these injuries – but those subtleties could prove crucial.
No top seed has been completely knocked out of contention by injury: all four No. 1 seeds still have their star players available, and the consensus favorites (Duke, Auburn, etc.) remain the same.
In that sense, the balance of power at the very top is unchanged. However, the field of realistic contenders has been narrowed at the margins. A few weeks ago, teams like Kentucky and Iowa State were on the list of “could make a deep run if things break right.”
Now, due to their bad injury luck, those teams are afterthoughts in Final Four discussions. For instance, Iowa State’s loss of Gilbert likely removes them from Elite Eight contention, altering the South Region’s dynamics. And Kentucky’s backcourt woes mean a potential spoiler is much less threatening in the Midwest – clearing the way for the favorites there.
Meanwhile, the healthiest teams have an even greater edge. Squads with depth and no key injuries (like Michigan State, St. John’s, Florida, Tennessee) can play at full throttle and exploit opponents who are short-handed.
We might see an upset or two specifically because one team was missing an important player. For example, if 11-seed UNC upsets 3-seed Iowa State, it will be hard not to point to Gilbert’s absence as a deciding factor.
Similarly, a team like Houston or Duke could cruise through a region more easily if a chief rival is weakened (imagine Duke facing an Alabama without Nelson – advantage Duke).
On the flip side, an injury can also derail a favorite – if Auburn’s Broome, for instance, aggravates an injury, the balance in that region would tilt toward the next-best team overnight. That’s the razor’s edge these top teams are on.
While the top contenders remain the top contenders, the pecking order right below them has shuffled. The pool of teams with a realistic shot at the Final Four or title is a bit smaller now, trimmed by these health setbacks.
No one has suffered an injury so catastrophic that we have a “new” favorite – but the chances of a dark horse crashing the Final Four have arguably risen (with Kentucky out of the picture, maybe a different underdog emerges; with Iowa State hobbled, maybe an extra double-digit seed sneaks through the South).
As of March 19, 2025, a few contenders are licking their wounds, and a few others are counting their blessings.
Sources:
Fox Sports – 2025 NCAA Tournament Injury Updates (2025 NCAA Men's Tournament injury updates: Cooper Flagg, J'Wan Roberts, more | FOX Sports)
ESPN – Viewer’s Guide: 10 Things to Know Before the Tournament (Viewer's guide to March Madness 2025 - ESPN)
Sports Illustrated – Injury News on Cooper Flagg and Others (Cooper Flagg, Nursing Sprained Ankle, Unlikely to Play Again in ACC Tournament)
Sports Injury Central (SIC) – March Madness Injury Guide (2025 March Madness Injury Guide: How Key Injuries Impact Tournament )
New York Post – South Region Analysis (Injuries and Upsets) (2025 March Madness South Region analysis: Auburn is in trouble)
ESPN Betting – Odds and Injury Impact Analysis (Men's March Madness betting storylines: Flagg's impact, revenge of underdogs and SEC dominance - ESPN)