Jeopardy Masters 2024 (Season 2): Predictions

Can anybody beat James "High Roller" Holzhauer?

Jeopardy Masters is back for the second year.

It’s basically the “highest level” Jeopardy tournament besides the “Greatest of All Time” tournament – in which Ken Jennings obliterated the competition and made it look effortless.

Although the competitors on Jeopardy Masters want Ken Jennings to compete for fun – I think Jennings would crush them all again…

He’s on an entirely different level than the rest (and they are really good… it’s just that there’s not really competition… maybe in the future he’ll come out of retirement).

UPDATE: Big W for Victoria Groce… as good as it gets. Highly impressive. (R)

Jeopardy Masters 2024: Payouts ($$$)

1. Winner (1st Place): $500,000, the Trebek Trophy, invitation to the next Masters competition.

2. 2nd place: $250,000 & invitation to the next Masters competition.

3. 3rd place: $150,000 & invitation to the next Masters competition.

4. 4th place: $100,000

5. 5th place: $75,000

6. 6th place: $50,000

Who are the contestants on Jeopardy Masters (Season 2)? (2024)

• James Holzhauer (defending champ): 2023 Jeopardy Masters Champion. Known for winning 32-straight games between April-June 2019. Runner-up in the GOAT tournament (to Jennings). Holds all top 10 single-game score records. Total winnings: $3,462,216.

• Yogesh Raut (new): Winner of the 2024 Tournament of Champions (beat Troy Meyer & Ben Chan in a series of games). Total winnings: $348,403.

• Victoria Groce (new): Winner of the 2024 Jeopardy: Invitational Tournament (beat Amy Schneider & Andrew He). She also is the first female “chaser” on the show The Chase. Total winnings: $123,801.

• Matt Amodio (finalist): 2023 Jeopardy Masters finalist. Won 38 straight games July-October 2021. Third-longest winning streak & third-highest cash winnings in regular play. Total winnings: $1,668,601.

• Mattea Roach (finalist): 2023 Jeopardy Masters finalist. Won 23 straight games April-May 2022. Total winnings: $810,983.

• Amy Schneider (returner): Jeopardy Invitational Tournament finalist. Appeared in the 2023 Jeopardy Masters. Qualified as a wildcard contestant by producers. Total winnings: $1,682,800.

I like the contestants – but would’ve preferred a different method for determining who qualified for the Jeopardy Masters tournament.

I would’ve liked Troy Meyer in the tournament given his high skill and the fact that he led in 4/6 episodes going into Final Jeopardy in the Tournament of Champions – heck even Ben Chan would’ve been a good addition.

I would also give all of the contestants from the previous tournament a chance to qualify (Amodio, He, Schneider, Buttrey) in a mini-tournament leading up to the Masters.

Predicting who will win Jeopardy Masters (2024)…

What are my thoughts on each contestant in Jeopardy Masters: Season 2?

All quality contestants – but only one really “jumps out” as the clear-cut favorite to me: James Holzhauer.

The rest will need to prove to me that they can play with the remaining big dog now that Jennings isn’t playing.

1. James Holzhauer: Should be the odds on favorite to win Jeopardy Masters as the champion from last year. He’s proven that he can beat Amodio, Roach, and Schneider. It’s unlikely that they suddenly get a lot better (e.g. GPT-3 to GPT-5) at Jeopardy. James should be dialed in from his rapid-fire competing on The Chase as well.

2. Yogesh Raut: Gotta think that Raut will do alright given that he’s already proven himself in a high-level tournament (won the Tournament of Champions for 2024) against 2 quality opponents. Proficient in fast buzzer pressing and is clearly ready to compete.

3. Matt Amodio: Played fairly well in last year’s Jeopardy Masters (3^rd in the quarters, 2^nd in the semis, then kind of getting unlucky a bit in the finals finishing 3^rd of 3). Not convinced Amodio has a strong chance to win the tournament given last year vs. Holzhauer etc. but he has a decent shot at advancing to the semis/finals.

4. Victoria Groce: Well-practiced from time as the new female “chaser” on the show The Chase. Winner of the Jeopardy Invitational tournament (beating Andrew He & Amy Schneider). Both He and Schneider are quality opponents – so Victoria should be able to hold her own here.

5. Mattea Roach: A very high-level Jeopardy contestant – clearly far better than average (hence her appearance on Masters). However, I’d have to rank her 5^th place for odds of winning the tournament based on the fact that she only played James 2x in the quarters, won 1 fewer game than He in the quarters, and Amodio laid a goose-egg in the semis. Will likely be more focused this year.

6. Amy Schneider: A very high-level Jeopardy contestant – but not quite on the same level as Holzhauer. Last year finished with the lowest number of correct responses and lowest overall score of the Masters Season 1 contestants. I think Schneider should do better this year.

Would I bet on the tournament?

Might place a small wager on Holzhauer if the odds were favorable – but I haven’t found any place that allows betting on Jeopardy.

Someone on Reddit asked whether any books offer Jeopardy Masters odds – I think they should… would be a fun thing to bet on.

The poster said “would like to ride James to an early retirement.” (LOL)

More thoughts on Yogesh Raut…

Could be a force on the Masters given that he’s mentally focused/dialed (I’m wondering if any of these contestants are on optimized doses of stimulants e.g. amphetamine or modafinil).

Buzzer pressing: Raut seems to be one of the best buzzer pressers I’ve ever seen… he dominated the buzzer pressing against Troy Meyer & Ben Chan (ChanGPT). I suspect he took James’ advice (back when James suggested practicing buzzer pressing – which can yield a major gameplay advantage). Many times they all just press the buzzer and think of the answer a few seconds after they’re called upon. Basically buzzer first brain/response second mentality.

Psychological tactics: Some think that Yogesh may be using various psychological tactics to his advantage, including: (1) exaggerated button pressing (basically looking like he’s getting an intense workout mashing that buzzer) – this may be distracting in the peripheral of the other contestants and/or (2) wager amounts (sometimes uses reverse psychology like he did against Troy Meyer with unpredictable wagers in Final Jeopardy).

What is the format for Jeopardy Masters: Season 2?

1-hour episodes: 9 total, 2 games per episode. (It’s the same as Season 1 except there are 2 fewer games in the initial quarterfinals round-robin).

• Quarterfinals (12 games: “round-robin” format with 6 contestants)

• Semifinals (4 games: “round-robin” format with 4 contestants)

• The Finals (2 games: best cumulative score wins)

What was the format of Jeopardy Masters for Season 1? (Recap)

1-hour episodes: 10 total, 2 games per episode.

• Quarterfinals (“round-robin” format with 6 contestants & 14 games)

• Semifinals (“round-robin” format with 4 contestants & 4 games)

• The Finals (2 games, best cumulative score wins)

Round #1: Round-Robin Style (Quarterfinals)

Here is a list of each contestant's rank finish & points in the round robin round:

1.     Holzhauer: 18 points (6 wins. 247,805 points)

2.     He: 13 points (3 wins. 121,800 points)

3.     Amodio: 9 points (3 wins. 112,800 points)

4.     Roach: 8 points (2 wins. 86,400 points)

5.     Schneider: 5 points (0 wins. 70,800 points)

6.     Buttrey: 3 points (0 wins. 80,600 points)

Who played who in the round-robin (each 7 games)?

As you can see based on quarterfinal opponents – some played Holzhauer 3 times, others played Buttrey 3 times, etc.

Holzhauer opponents (RR)

• Roach: 2

• Buttrey: 3

• Schneider: 3

• He: 3

• Amodio: 3

Roach opponents (RR)

• Holzhauer: 2

• Buttrey: 3

• Schneider: 1

• He: 2

• Amodio: 4

Schneider opponents (RR)

• Holzhauer: 3

• Buttrey: 3

• Roach: 2

• He: 3

• Amodio: 3

Amodio opponents (RR)

• Holzhauer: 3

• Buttrey: 1

• Schneider: 3

• He: 3

• Roach: 4

He opponents (RR)

• Holzhauer: 3

• Buttrey: 3

• Schneider: 3

• Roach: 2

• Amodio: 3

Buttrey opponents (RR)

• Holzhauer: 3

• Roach: 4

• Schneider: 3

• He: 3

• Amodio: 1

Round #2: Semifinals

7 round-robin matches of 2 games each. In each round, 3 contestants play each other in the first game and the remaining 3 play in the second game.

The winner of each game receives 3 match points, runner-up receives 1 match point, and the third-place player receives zero points.

The second game of each round except for the first pairs up the winners from the previous round against another randomly-selected contestant who has not already played against both winners.

List of contestants and rankings in second-round:

1. James Holzhauer: 9 points (3 wins. 70,000 points)

2. Matt Amodio: 3 points (1 win. 46,200 points)

3. Mattea Roach: 2 points (0 wins. 44,400 points)

4. Andrew He: 2 points (0 wins. 37,600 points)

What were the game scores?

• Game 1: Holzhauer (30,401) vs. He (22,000) vs. Amodio (15,201)

• Game 2: Holzhauer (24,700) vs. He (12,484) vs. Roach (15,999)

• Game 3: Holzhauer (24,292) vs. Roach (10,886) vs. Amodio (0)

• Game 4: Roach (5,799) vs. He (15,199) vs. Amodio (32,800)

Round 3: The Finals

1. James Holzhauer (34,315 + 9,481): 43,795 (Champion)

2. Mattea Roach (24,800 + 16,885): 41,685 (2^nd)

3. Matt Amodio (12,000 + 3,200): 15,200 (3^rd)

What I dislike about the format… (potential suggestions for change)

• Finals: Should be 3 games minimum. 2 games has a bit too much emphasis on luck for my liking – after extensively whittling the contestant pool down. (14 games to go from 6 to 4; 4 games to go from 4 to 3; then 2 games to go from 3 to 1). Should either be 3 total games with scores totaled OR first to win 3 games.

• First-round (round-robin): Should ensure that everyone plays everyone else at least 2x if 14 total games. This is just for balance. Some may match up better against other players and/or there might be one person that gets stuck with the clear juggernaut or poorest performer than the rest (this could be an unfair advantage or disadvantage).

• Pre-tournament invitational: Should have all Jeopardy Masters alumni, finalists from Jeopardy Tournament of Champions (top 3 each year), and anyone from the Jeopardy GOAT tournament. Troy Meyer, Ben Chan, etc. should’ve been in the invitational.

Ideas for alternative Jeopardy Masters formats…

Could do a combination of these things too… cumulative points or earnings through the first 2 rounds and first to win 3 games in the finals.

• Cumulative points (1^st vs. 2^nd vs. 3^rd): Could just do aggregate points through the entire tournament or through the quarters/semis. (1^st = 3 points; 2^nd = 1 point; 3^rd = 0 points).

• Cumulative Jeopardy earnings: Could consider cumulative earnings through entire tournament or through quarters/semis. This would incentivize greater risk-taking on “Final Jeopardy.”

• First to win a certain # of games: Could make the finals first to win 3 games (similar to what they did in Tournament of Champions). This at least rewards skill a bit more than someone lucking out and winning the only game they play.

What are your thoughts on Jeopardy Masters tournament?

Are you satisfied with the contestants that were selected? Or were you hoping for some more new blood vs. 4 contestants from last year?

It should be a fun tournament with Yogesh Raut and Victoria Groce… and I suspect Amodio, Roach, and Schneider will be a bit more focused this year.

I’d bet on James to win it, but maybe someone will pull off a surprise upset… Mattea almost won the entire thing last year despite having the lowest score in the quarterfinals of all 6 contestants and 3^rd lowest (of 4) in the semis.

Who do you think will win the tournament? Do you think there’s any significant potential for an upset?

Would you make any changes to the format? Or do you think its sufficient for determining who actually played the best “Masters tournament”?

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