Hank Stram Super Bowl (LIX) Prediction: Eagles vs. Chiefs (2025)

The infamous Hank Stram model for Super Bowl predictions favors the Eagles (39.5 pts) over Chiefs (30 pts)

Since today is “Super Bowl Sunday” I wanted to reflect on a somewhat esoteric Super Bowl prediction formula/method that has circulated throughout various online betting circles for decades, but few know about it.

Some call it the “Stram method” or the “Stram system” because it’s attributable to the hall-of-fame (inducted 2003) NFL coach, Hank Stram.

Whether the method originated directly from Hank or was loosely based upon his coaching strategy/style remains unclear… most old references to the method strewn across the internet have been unarchived and/or wiped from the WaybackMachine and none of the AI tools were of any help.

It is possible that the method was created by Hank and leaked to select individuals… or perhaps various bettors studied Hank’s coaching strategy and engineered a novel prediction method specifically for “the big game” a.k.a. the Super Bowl… nobody really knows.

In addition to not knowing the full origin of the Stram method, its precise details (data points, scoring, etc.), intended use-case (straight up vs. ATS), and overall accuracy remain unclear… some believe it’s accuracy was historically very high (but that it may have faded a bit in the modern era).

Hank Stram: The HOF Coach Behind the Method

• Hank Stram (1923–2005) coached the Dallas Texans (AFL) and then the Kansas City Chiefs (NFL) from 1960 to 1974, leading them to a victory in Super Bowl IV (23–7 over the Vikings).

• Known for his innovative offensive concepts—including the “moving pocket,” pre-snap motion, and the two-tight-end set—Stram prioritized balance on offense, a strong run game, and disciplined execution.

• After his coaching career, he worked in sports broadcasting, where he continued to emphasize fundamentals like running the ball effectively, preventing opponent rushing success, avoiding penalties, and capitalizing on special teams.

The Emergence of the “Stram System”

There is no official document or book in which Stram definitively laid out a 17-step betting checklist. Instead, around the late 1970s and 1980s, sports-betting newsletters and newspaper columns began referencing a “Hank Stram formula” for predicting Super Bowl winners.

Over time, these references coalesced into a 17-category points-based system. Each category assigned a certain number of “Stram points” to the team with an edge in that stat (e.g., “Most offensive rushes” or “Better net penalty yards”).

Despite being called “Hank Stram’s Formula,” many suspect it’s an amalgamation of Stram’s coaching philosophy—rather than a formula he personally sat down to write out. Yet the name stuck, and the system spread throughout betting circles.

Why the Stram Method Caught On…

1.) Alleged/Rumored High Success Rates

• By the 1990s, some credited the Stram Method with a near ~80-85% success rate in picking the covering team for the Super Bowl (or in some versions, picking the straight-up winner).

• Numbers like 34–10–2 (through 2012) or 40–6–2 (through the mid-2010s) circulated, suggesting the system had outperformed typical “flip-a-coin” results.

2.) Old-School Fundamentals

• It rewarded run-heavy teams, strong run defense, discipline, and big-game experience. Traditional keys to victory in the NFL.

• This resonated with bettors who believed that flashy passing teams could choke in the “big game,” whereas physical, methodical teams thrived.

3.) Simple Points-Based Format

• The categories and assigned values are easy to use: gather stats, see which team “wins,” award the points.

• This no-frills approach appealed to many casual bettors.

Evolution into an NFL “Folk System”

Because no single, authoritative “Stram manual” ever existed, the system’s categories and exact point values were often passed around by word-of-mouth, secondhand references, or Internet forums.

Some versions tweaked or replaced certain categories (e.g., “Best net kickoff returns” vs. “Most special-teams touchdowns”), yet the general idea stayed consistent.

Over time, people began to question if the system still kept up with modern pass-heavy offenses and new rule changes. Others continued to swear by it as a reliable “Super Bowl tradition” from the run-dominant days of the NFL.

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Stram Super Bowl System (17 Categories)

While you might see small variations from one source to another, the most widely circulated version of Hank Stram’s system includes these 17 categories.

Each category confers a fixed point value to the team that leads or “wins” that statistic.