Dodgers vs. Blue Jays: World Series 2025 Prediction
A cookie cutter prediction from GPT-5 Pro.
I don’t really care who wins… but I’ve been watching the MLB Playoffs. Great matchups… Dumper and company probably would’ve won had Seattle left Kirby in the game longer (the whole game if necessary… gotta ride the hot hand).
Dodgers almost blew the Snell masterclass against Milwaukee by following the usual protocol or whatever… should’ve just let him go the full 9. But anyways… we have Dodgers vs. Jays in the 2025 final.
According to USA today… the #2 payroll of 2025 vs. the #5 payroll. Seattle #16 ($146.79 million) and Milwaukee #23 (~$115.1 million). Ranks don’t matter as much as the actual payrolls… Dodgers were well over 2x Milwaukee… Toronto well ahead of Seattle. Great seasons for SEA & MIL.
Dodgers: ~$321.2 million
Toronto: ~$239.6 million
What’s my prediction? Eyeballing and gutshot after watching: Dodgers… I’ll say in 6 (status quo pick). I’ll admit I’d like to see Toronto to win… not because I dislike LA, but because I like Toronto’s hitting. I hope they rip it… but it will be a challenge against Snell, Ohtani and co.
Why the Dodgers? Pitching. Mostly because of pitching… elite. And they should be able to hit Toronto. Freddie Freeman. Muncy. Ohtani. Snell. Mookie. Teoscar. Gonna be hard to beat… but the Jays will have home field (not sure how much that matters here… Seattle won in Toronto and nearly took the series.)
GPT-5 Pro Prediction? Same as me… the status quo pick: Dodgers in 6. I was hoping it would have something different… but it’s probably playing the odds. I had it consider injuries, depth, momentum, matchup dynamics, etc.
GPT-5 Pro: Dodgers in 6 Logic
Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers over Toronto Blue Jays, 4–2
Confidence (series probability): 64% LAD / 36% TOR
Why (short version):
Rotation depth & form: The Dodgers can roll four October‑sharpened starters (Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow) who are dominating this postseason. ESPN’s live postseason leaderboards show: Snell 3–0 with 28 K, Glasnow at 0.68 ERA, Ohtani 2–0, 2.25 ERA on the mound, and Yamamoto with a CG gem in the NLCS.
Late‑inning run prevention: With regular closers injured or ineffective during the year, L.A. stabilized October by turning Roki Sasaki into a 100‑mph closer (3 postseason saves, 1 run in 8 IP) and leaning heavily on starters in relief. That’s visible both in game recaps and analyses of their bullpen makeover.
Blue Jays strengths are real but thinner on the mound: Toronto’s lineup is the hotter October offense (postseason‑leading team AVG/HRs so far), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is on a heater (ALCS MVP; .442 with 6 HR in the postseason). But the Jays’ pitching plan is less certain beyond Shane Bieber and Kevin Gausman, with José Berríos ruled out and others used in flex/relief roles.
Health/context: Bo Bichette says he’ll be ready for the World Series after a knee sprain sidelined him all postseason; that’s a big boost if he’s truly close to full baseball activities. George Springer played through a knee bruise to win ALCS Game 7. Still, the Dodgers enter fresher after a sweep; Game 1 is Friday, Oct. 24, in Toronto (Jays have home‑field).
Parks/schedule: Rogers Centre and Dodger Stadium don’t suppress homers—the latter has trended near‑average or better for HRs for years—so run prevention (K’s, command, late‑inning matchups) looms large. The World Series schedule (Oct. 24–Nov. 1) gives L.A. the rest edge and room to use their four‑ace carousel optimally.
Series result: Dodgers 4, Blue Jays 2 (LAD win Games 1, 3, 4, 6; TOR win Games 2, 5).
Path logic: L.A.’s top‑4 SPs + a now‑trustworthy back end (Sasaki) win the run‑prevention battle most nights, even with Toronto’s hotter bats.
World Series MVP forecast
Primary pick: Shohei Ohtani — MVP probability ~30%. Rationale: Likely 2 starts (G1 & G5) plus daily DH at‑bats. Even with a modest October batting line so far, his pitching has been outstanding (2–0, 2.25 ERA), and voters gravitate to two‑way impact in a six‑game win.
Other live candidates (my probabilities): Tyler Glasnow 18% (can post a 7–12 IP, 1R type series), Blake Snell 14% (two strong starts seals it), Freddie Freeman 12% (run‑producing bat in tight games), Yoshinobu Yamamoto 10% (Game‑3 pivot point + potential relief cameo), Field 16%.
How I got to 64% (Dodgers) vs. 36% (Blue Jays)
Starting rotation (35% weight): Dodgers 60–40. Top‑end form and four reliable turns (Ohtani/Snell/Yamamoto/Glasnow) vs. Toronto’s quality but murkier depth after Bieber/Gausman, especially with Berríos ruled out.
Bullpen (25%): Dodgers 60–40. October usage pattern (starters soaking leverage) + Sasaki as closer has stabilized L.A.; Toronto’s best reliever has been Jeff Hoffman, but the pen has been volatile game‑to‑game.
Offense (25%): Blue Jays 55–45. TOR leads the postseason in AVG/HRs; Vlad Jr. is the hottest hitter left. Dodgers haven’t mashed to that level in October, but they’ve been just good enough around elite pitching.
Defense/baserunning (5%): Slight Dodgers 54–46 (Betts’ SS defense; cleaner October game in NLCS).
Home‑field & travel (10%): Blue Jays 54–46 (open at home; raucous Rogers Centre; two flights north‑south). Schedule still grants L.A. optimal rest.
The blended edge lands around 64–36 LAD—close enough that a few big swings (say, a Springer or Vlad Jr. homer with men on) flip a game.
Key health/matchup notes that move the needle
Bo Bichette’s availability: He says, “I’ll be ready,” but he hasn’t seen live game speed since Sept. 6. If he’s truly 90–100%, that’s a material bump to Toronto’s run creation and infield D.
Roki Sasaki at the back end is a real October development (3 saves; 1 run in 8 IP). That plus LA’s willingness to deploy starters in relief has muted their regular‑season bullpen issues.
Park context: Dodger Stadium has played near‑average or better for HRs in the Statcast era; Rogers Centre (post‑renovation) doesn’t suppress power. That shifts importance to K%/BB% and platoon edges—areas where L.A.’s SPs carry a collective advantage.
Where this could be wrong (Toronto path to the trophy)
Two Blue Jay starts land big: If Bieber + Gausman deliver 12–13 combined innings at ~2 ER with Hoffman fresh, TOR can steal a low‑scoring pair.
Vlad Jr. stays “best player in the series”: He just won ALCS MVP and has carried a .440+ October; add a healthy Bichette and Springer’s big‑moment DNA, and Toronto can out‑slug L.A. at home.
Snell’s volatility: If command wobbles (walks), TOR’s right‑handed core punishes mistakes in Rogers Centre.
Coin‑flip chaos: Best‑of‑7s between elite clubs rarely exceed a true ~65–35 edge.
What the books say (for context only)
Several shops opened Dodgers in the ~–215 to –220 range (implied ~68–69%). That’s slightly more bullish on L.A. than my 64%, largely because I’m giving a bit more weight to Toronto’s current offensive form and home‑field.
Final answer
Champion: Dodgers in 6 (4–2).
Game winners: LAD (G1), TOR (G2), LAD (G3), LAD (G4), TOR (G5), LAD (G6).
World Series MVP: Shohei Ohtani (my probability ~30%; runners‑up: Glasnow 18%, Snell 14%, Freeman 12%, Yamamoto 10%).
Series probability: 64% LAD / 36% TOR based on rotation depth, late‑inning run prevention (Sasaki + starter leverage), and current health/usage, vs. Toronto’s hot but top‑heavy offense.
Am I betting? I don’t typically bet… if you aren’t a shark you are shark food. Betting for fun is fine I guess. I just don’t usually do it.