Colts Playoff Odds without Daniel Jones: Ranking Every QB Option
What are the odds the Colts make the playoffs this year?
The Colts were having an unpredictably stellar 2025 NFL season… but Daniel Jones goes down with a torn achilles and is now out for the year. Absolutely brutal luck.
And the schedule to close out the season is relatively nasty.
@ Seahawks (10–3): Consistently crushing.
vs 49ers (9–4): Always tough when healthy.
vs Jaguars (9–4): Getting the job done.
@ Texans (8–5): Lethal defense.
Do the Colts have a shot at making a playoff run? Lets first think about whether they have a shot at the playoffs and not get too far ahead of ourselves.
Colts defense: Somewhat suspect (i.e. low mid-range) ~344.9 ypg (#23)
Colts offense: Great ~368.5 ypg (#6 to date)
What does AI think about the Colts?
They’re in real trouble, but not fully dead. If Jones was healthy, I’d ballpark Indy around 60–65% to make the playoffs.
After the Achilles + the current QB room, even with smart moves, I’d have them more like 25–35% to get in. So: they’re maybe 2/3 “fucked”, 1/3 alive.
Let’s set the stage and then rank the actual QB options with odds.
Where the Colts stand right now (Week 15)
Record: 8–5, losers of 4 of 5 after a crazy 7–1 start.
Division / AFC: 3rd in AFC South behind Jags (9–4) and Texans (8–5); currently 8th in AFC, just outside the wild card.
Remaining schedule (brutal):
@ Seahawks (10–3)
vs 49ers (9–4)
vs Jaguars (9–4)
@ Texans (8–5)
Those teams are 36–16 combined.
QB health:
Daniel Jones: Torn Achilles, done for year after a legit top-10-ish season (68% comp, 8.1 Y/A, 100.2 rating).
Anthony Richardson Sr.: Orbital fracture freak accident; on IR; team doesn’t know if he’ll be cleared at all in 2025 and explicitly says he’s not being activated right now.
Riley Leonard: Rookie, 6th-rounder; limited action (31 passes total), 56.5 rating so far, now with a Grade 1 PCL sprain, “hopeful he can play vs SEA.”
Brett Rypien: Practice squad vet; Tyler Warren (TE) is the emergency QB.
Front office reaction: They’re bringing in 44‑year‑old Philip Rivers for a workout/visit, openly exploring a comeback. (Reuters)
So we’re talking about 4 games, nasty schedule, no trade market (deadline’s gone), and a choice between: injured rookie, practice-squad journeyman, a very old retired dude, or whatever is left in free agency.
AI’s Ranking of QB Paths (for this season only)
Assumptions:
10–7 probably makes the playoffs; 9–8 is coin-flippy at best given tiebreakers.
Defense & run game are solid enough that if the QB is merely “non-disastrous,” they’re live in most games.
I’ll give each option:
“Playoff chance” = my rough % shot the Colts make the playoffs with that plan as their primary approach.
“Confidence” = how sure I am about that number (higher = less variance).
1️⃣ Start Riley Leonard, sign a real veteran backup (ideally Taylor Heinicke type)
Estimated playoff chance: ~30%
Confidence in that number: ~6/10
Why this is #1:
Leonard already knows the playbook and terminology, has been in the building all year, and is the only healthy-ish QB under contract who can actually move.
Grade 1 PCL is the mild end of the spectrum; it’s painful and limits mobility but is the kind of thing guys often play through with a brace and reduced designed runs, especially at QB. Reports already say the team is hopeful he plays in Week 15.
With Jones out and Richardson essentially a non-option, your best realistic path is: lean on run game + defense + play-action, ask Leonard to be a low-usage point guard, not a hero.
What it looks like schematically:
Run rate spikes: 55–60% neutral-situation runs with Jonathan Taylor & the ground game; RPOs and play-action off wide zone.
Pass game:
Quick game, half-field reads, bootlegs.
Limit five-step, pure dropback stuff vs Seattle/49ers pass rushes.
QB-designed runs drastically reduced the first week or two because of the PCL.
How good is that QB situation vs Daniel Jones?
I’d peg Leonard right now as maybe 60–65% of Jones’ 2025 level as a passer, and much less as a pre-snap operator.
That drops the offense from fringe top‑10 to something like league-average or slightly below, if the play-calling is appropriately conservative and Leonard protects the ball.
Win math (order-of-magnitude):
With Leonard playing at a “competent rookie game-manager” level, I’d roughly expect:
@SEA: 30–35%
vs SF: ~25%
vs JAX: ~45%
@HOU: ~40%
That gives something like a 30–35% shot to get at least 2 wins (10–7). That’s the whole ballgame.
Key: add an adult backup.
If Leonard’s knee worsens or he’s clearly overwhelmed, dropping straight to Rypien is how you go from “in the hunt” to “4-game losing streak.” The best use of a veteran is not to toss them out there cold in 5 days; it’s to have someone who can take over in Week 16/17 without burning the building down.
Who they should target for this plan:
From the actual unsigned QB list (guys currently on the street) (Sharp)
Taylor Heinicke – Top realistic target.
Has shown functional starting ability, can run a boot/play-action offense, can create outside structure when protection breaks.
You’re not winning because of him, but he keeps you live if Leonard goes down.
Desmond Ridder
High variance, but somewhat stylistically closer to Richardson/Jones in terms of mobility plus RPO familiarity.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson
Young and raw, but athletic and fits the movement/shot-play part of the playbook.
Those are “can survive” guys. Nate Sudfeld / Tim Boyle / Logan Woodside are break-glass-only.
My move if I’m Ballard/Steichen:
Start Leonard vs Seattle if medically cleared.
Sign Heinicke immediately as QB2.
Elevate Rypien to QB3.
Put Leonard on a short leash; if he looks completely underwater by halftime of the SF game, pivot to Heinicke.
2️⃣ Sign Philip Rivers as a backup / room adult, not as Week 15 savior
Estimated playoff chance (if he’s QB2 behind Leonard): Still ~30% (basically same as Plan 1)
Confidence: ~5/10 (huge variance)
If they insist on Rivers, this is the only configuration I like:
Pros:
He knows Shane Steichen from their Chargers days and has already played a season in Indy.
Elite mental processing, protection checks, and a quick release never really leave you.
As QB2, he raises the “break glass” ceiling more than Rypien.
Cons (big ones):
He is 44 and hasn’t played since 2020.
The league is faster, his arm was already declining at the end, and any lack of functional mobility will get punished behind a line that has had ups-and-downs.
Hall of Fame clock, conditioning, family, actually wanting to take hits in December… a lot has to go right.
If they actually start Rivers in Week 16+?
Then I’d downgrade this path to something like ~20% playoff odds. It probably looks like:
@SEA: Rypien/Leonard anyway (Rivers won’t be ready).
vs SF: maybe Rivers if he looks remotely ready.
vs JAX/@HOU: fully Rivers.
That’s asking a guy out of the game for five years to go 2–1 in a playoff race against 9–4/8–5 teams. There’s a reason most ex‑QBs and even current analysts are rolling their eyes at this.
Verdict:
Rivers as “veteran mentor + emergency QB2” is fine.
Rivers as “we’re pinning our season on him” is almost certainly a mirage.
3️⃣ Sign a vet and start him (Heinicke / Ridder / DTR tier)
Estimated playoff chance: ~25%
Confidence: ~7/10
This is the “we don’t trust Leonard’s knee or readiness, we want an adult in the room now” path.
Reality check: Installing a new QB in mid-December is brutally hard:
No training camp, no reps with receivers, only a few padded practices.
He has to learn protection calls and hot rules in a week.
On the other hand, these guys have started NFL games and have more reps than Leonard.
If they did it anyway:
Week 15 at SEA: You’re realistically still playing Leonard or Rypien that first week. Tossing Heinicke into Lumen Field with 4 days of install is begging for disaster.
Weeks 16–18: Vet starter, playbook compressed down to 60–70% volume, heavy run game.
I’d expect something like:
vs SF: ~30% with a functioning veteran
vs JAX: ~45%
@HOU: ~40%
Plus probably a loss in Seattle with whoever starts that first week. That’s still a narrow but real path to 2 wins.
Who specifically makes sense:
Taylor Heinicke: clearly the top “functional adult” in the true-FA pool.
Desmond Ridder: more variance, more mobility, but also more turnover risk.
DTR / Clayton Tune: lottery tickets; if you’re going to run a rookie, you might as well stick with the one who knows your offense already (Leonard).
Why I put this behind “Leonard + vet”:
Short-term disruption is huge.
Leonard already has the system; a rough rookie starter + Heinicke behind him is better than a rough Heinicke with a rookie behind him who doesn’t get reps.
4️⃣ Elevate Brett Rypien and just ride it out
Estimated playoff chance: ~10%
Confidence: ~7/10
You can do this. You probably shouldn’t.
Rypien is basically the definition of “replacement-level QB3”: bounced around, limited arm, knows some systems, but we’ve seen his ceiling and it’s “can maybe keep you afloat for a week.”
Over four games vs top‑10ish teams, you’re asking for 2015 Peyton brain with 2025 Rypien arm. That’s not happening.
The path here would be:
Titans-era Mariota Falcons-level run game: massive rush volume, boot, screens, PRAY.
Defense has to be lights-out and win you 2 low-scoring coinflips.
I’d give them maybe:
@SEA: 20–25%
vs SF: 20%
vs JAX: 35%
@HOU: 30–35%
You can still luck into 10–7 if you win two ugly ones, but mathematically that’s ~1 in 10.
When is this defensible?
If Leonard’s knee is worse than they’re letting on and they absolutely whiff on every veteran target.
Or if the front office quietly decides, “we’re playing the long game, not selling our soul for a 1‑and‑done wildcard.”
As a deliberate choice to “salvage the season,” though, it’s basically waving the white flag.
5️⃣ Pray for a surprise Anthony Richardson clearance
Estimated playoff chance because of this specific plan: ~5%
Confidence: ~4/10 (medical uncertainty)
I’m including this because fans will talk themselves into it, but the actual reporting is very bleak:
Multiple outlets say the Colts don’t know when or if Richardson will be cleared to return this year after orbital fracture surgery.
Team has explicitly said there’s no plan to activate him this week even after Jones’ Achilles tear. (KNBR)
So the “plan” would look like:
Survive Weeks 15–16 with Leonard/Rypien/some vet at maybe 1–1.
Richardson gets a surprise clearance before JAX or HOU.
He plays at something like 80–90% of his old self immediately.
Any one of those is shaky; all three together is lottery-ticket territory.
So… how fucked are the Colts?
Let’s quantify it relative to a healthy Jones baseline.
Before injury (8–4, Jones playing like a top‑8 QB): Playoff odds (per my read + public models): ~60–70%. (NFL.com)
Now, best realistic path (Leonard + Heinicke/Rivers as QB2, run-heavy, defense holds up):
I’d give them ~30–35% to make the playoffs.
~10% to actually win the division (they basically need to beat JAX and HOU and steal one vs SEA/SF).
Super Bowl chances are rounding error (<2%), but that was true even with Jones.
In crude terms:
They’re about 2/3 “screwed,” 1/3 live dog.
What AI recommends for the Colts…
If AI is running the Colts and its only goal is “maximize playoff odds in 2025” without mortgaging the future… this is what it would do:
Declare Riley Leonard starter, assuming medical clear. Publicly frame it as: “We believe in Riley, we’re going to lean on our run game and defense, and we’ll tailor the offense to him.”
Sign Taylor Heinicke tomorrow as QB2 or Ridder/DTR as backup choices if Heinicke isn’t available. (Sharp)
Consider Rivers if ownership wants the nostalgia hit, but sign him to the practice squad / QB3 role unless he looks freakishly good in the workout.
Offensive adjustments: 55–60% run rate, tons of play-action, deep shots only off max protect. Go heavy personnel, make games shorter, lean into field position and special teams. Leonard’s job is “don’t lose the game in the first 3 quarters.”
Aggressively manage QB leash: If Leonard looks totally lost vs SEA + SF, you flip to Heinicke down the stretch vs JAX and HOU. If he’s merely “rookie-average,” ride with him – the reps actually matter for 2026 too.
That’s the blend that keeps your best-case scenario alive (Leonard hits, you sneak to 10–7) while minimizing the “we completely crater and lose the locker room” downside.
Final take: Dismal outlook for Indy
Many Colts fans wish Ryan Tannehill were available. He was reasonably good for Tennessee and is now 37 years old.
Yet he’s satisfied in retirement and probably doesn’t want the heat/pressure of being front/center in Indy. They’d likely have to roll out the Brink’s trucks to get him out of retirement… and even that might not be enough. Titans have been horrendous since his departure.
Other QBs that the Colts might want are signed… and you can’t sign another team’s QB in December. Flacco (Bengals) would be an ideal option… no dice. Walk-it-to-em Wentz… Vikings IR. Brissett is on the Cards. Jameis is on the Giants. Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, Tom Brady… nope.
The menu is basically:
Taylor Heinicke
Desmond Ridder
Dorian Thompson‑Robinson
Clayton Tune
Nate Sudfeld
Tim Boyle
Bryce Perkins
Logan Woodside
A couple “maybe available depending on PS / release” guys like CJ Beathard (Lions PS) or practice‑squad kids like Kyle McCord, Sam Hartman, etc.
TL;DR
Colts are absolutely in trouble, but not done. I’d call it ~1-in-3 that they still make the playoffs.
Best path: Riley Leonard as a protected starter in a run-heavy offense, plus a legitimate vet backup (Heinicke-type) signed immediately.
Rivers is fine as a backup/mentor, risky as a starter.
Rypien-only or “wait for Richardson” plans are basically surrendering this season.