Bitcoin Price Predictions (2024-2025)

Will Bitcoin (BTC) finally hit $100K post-ETF?

How high will the price of Bitcoin (BTC) get in 2024? Not sure.

There are many catalysts that could push the BTC to new all-time highs, including: BTC ETF (massive inflows from big biz), bull market (strong economy), crypto mania (peak FOMO), Donald Trump endorsing crypto, ETH ETF approval (indirectly helps BTC), etc.

Bitcoin (BTC) already reached an ATH in 2024 months after the approval of a BTC ETF – and some think it will likely reach another ATH before EOY 2024.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Predictions (EOY 2024)

Below are some price predictions from major financial players re: Bitcoin (BTC)’s potential upside in 2024. Most don’t give much clarity in terms of an actual “high” target in 2024.

Understand that some may have more accurate predictions due to a timing advantage (some made predictions pre-2024 – others made them after BTC all-time highs).

·      JP Morgan: Up to $45,000

·      Standard Chartered: Up to $100,000

·      Robert Kiyosaki: Up to $120,000

·      Tim Draper: Up to $250,000

·      Tom Lee (Fundstat Global): Up to $150,000

·      Pantera Capital: Up to $148,000

·      Marcus Thielen (10X Research): Up to $70,000

·      Adam Beck: Up to $100,000

·      BitQuant: Up to $250,000

·      Crypto Con: Up to $149,000

·      Bit Mining: Up to $75,000

·      CoinShares: Up to $80,000

·      Carol Alexander: Up to $100,000

·      Matrixport: Up to $125,000

·      CoinFund: Up to $500,000

·      Mark Mobius: Up to $60,000

·      Max Keiser: Up to $200,000

·      Bitfinex Analysts: Up to $120,000

·      Bernstein: Up to $120,000

·      CoinPriceForecast: Up to $154,766

·      Ki Young Ju (CryptoQuant): Up to $112,000

·      Finder’s Expert Panel: Up to $87,875-$200,000

·      Laurent Benayoun (Acheron Trading): Up to $180,000

Everything considered, most of the predictions on this list seem fairly reasonable and logical compared to cycles of old.

Some predictions you’ll read on Twitter/X or from the likes of people like Cathie Wood (ARK Invest) are a bit outlandish – likely for the sake of marketing Bitcoin & crypto.

These generate more headlines – and this generates more FOMO from both retail investors and institutions (gotta buy in soon before it’s too late).

If you check crypto Twitter/X though, many are drunk on the Bitcoin/crypto Kool-Aid because they’ve made massive profits (BTC ATH, bull market, ETF approval, etc.) – they’re thinking “to infinity and beyond” (and they’re all reinforcing these outrageous claims in their crypto social bubbles).

“You’ll never see another BTC below $100,000.” (Common hype claims on Twitter/X. These claims were rampant in 2021 – and BTC dropped significantly after its ATH last cycle: over $60K down to $16K).

Most should know by now that most hype jockeys have been wildly inaccurate in the past… some were predicting $1,000,000 by 2022 (quite insane)… but if you own these coins you gotta love the free hype/marketing.

Note: These price predictions are just for highs in 2024 by EOY – not for the future. I think the upside for BTC is as high as any predictions here, but the timeline is much longer-term (not 2024).

Betting markets: What are they predicting for Bitcoin in 2024?

If you want serious price predictions for an Bitcoin (BTC) in 2024 – it’s worth evaluating prediction markets.

People who are putting their money and/or reputation on the line to accurately predict Bitcoin’s price are probably more trustworthy than some randoms on Twitter/X saying “BTC $500K 2024 guaranteed.”

If you are sure that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach a price much higher than the consensus betting market suggests – you can make money from the skeptics by participating in prediction markets.

Polymarket

Will Bitcoin hit $100K in 2024? (R)

Total bet: $200,995 (May 2024)

·      Yes: 41%

·      No: 59%

Will Bitcoin hit $250K in 2024? (R)

·      Yes: 12%

·      No: 88%

What price will $BTC dip below before June 2024? (R)

·      $55K: 3%

·      $50K: 2%

·      $45K: <1%

Kalshi

How high will Bitcoin get this year (2024)? (R)

Contracts: 178,582 (vol) (May 2024)

·      $80,000 or above: 77%

·      $90,000 or above: 53%

·      $100,000 or above: 44%

·      $150,000 or above: 8%

·      $250,000 or above: 4%

When will Bitcoin hit $100K? (R)

It seems as though some are fairly convinced BTC has a shot of hitting $100K before EOY 2024 (46%). My guess is that over 50% would predict that BTC hits $100K in Q1 or Q2 of 2025.

Contracts: 130,179 (vol) (May 2024)

·      Before Jan: 46%

·      Before Dec: 43%

·      Before Nov: 37%

·      Before Oct: 30%

·      Before Sep: 23%

How low will Bitcoin fall by EOY 2024? (R)

From this question (posted April 2, 2024) we can gather that 37% of individuals think BTC will drop below $50K by EOY 2024 and fewer think it’ll drop below $40K and $30K.

Most (56%) think BTC will stay above $50K through EOY 2024.

Contracts: 13,536 (vol) (May 2024)

·      Below $50K: 37%

·      Below $40K: 1%

·      Below $30K: 8%

Manifold Markets

Will Bitcoin reach $130K in 2024? (R)

·      Yes: 16%

·      No: 84%

Will Bitcoin reach $120K in 2024? (R)

·      Yes: 13%

·      No: 87%

Will Bitcoin reach $100K before EOY 2025? (R)

·      Yes: 80%

·      No: 20%

Will Bitcoin hit $100K in 2024? (R)

Total trades: 1K (May 2024)

·      Yes: 30%

·      No: 70%

Will Bitcoin hit $100K before EOY 2024? (R)

·      Yes: 35%

·      No: 65%

Will Bitcoin reach $100K in 2024? (R)

·      Yes: 36%

·      No: 64%

Will Bitcoin reach $100K by EOY 2024? (R)

·      Yes: 38%

·      No: 62%

Will Bitcoin exceed $100K in 2024? (R)

·      Yes: 29%

·      No: 71%

Will Bitcoin reach $100K before the end of 2024? (R)

·      Yes: 42%

·      No: 68%

Will Bitcoin reach $90K in 2024? (R)

·      Yes: 40%

·      No: 60%

Will Bitcoin hit $85K in 2024? (R)

·      Yes: 60%

·      No: 40%

Will Bitcoin hit $75K in June 2024? (R)

·      Yes: 44%

·      No: 66%

Price of Bitcoin at the end of 2024? (R)

·      50%: $50K-$100K

·      32%: $100K-$200K

·      14%: $20K-$50K

What will be the max price range of Bitcoin in 2024? (R)

·      30%: $80K-$89.99K

·      24%: >$100K

·      23%: $90K-$99.99K

·      22%: $70K-$79.99K

Considering the current BTC (Bitcoin) cycle, what is your prediction for its new all-time high price? (R)

As of May 2024:

·      $200K-$299K: 9%

·      $100K-$199K: 38%

·      $90K-$99.99K: 15%

·      $80K-$89.99K: 15%

·      $70K-$79.99K: 12%

Will Bitcoin hit $100K before it next hits $10K? (R)

·      Yes: 79%

·      No: 21%

Will Bitcoin ever go below $10,000 again? (R)

·      Yes: 48%

·      No: 52%

Metaculus

Metaculus doesn’t involve betting real money, but many take it extremely seriously (forecasting reputation) – so it’s worth taking into account.

Bitcoin extremes: Will 1 BTC be worth $100,000 or more before 2025? (R)

·      Total forecasters: >1,000

·      Community prediction: 26% (May 2024)

This question has been open for predictions since 2020 – and as of 2021 the community of 500 participants was at ~50% odds that BTC would crack $100K before 2025.

Since 2021 though, more people joined in on the prediction (forecast) and odds fluctuated between 15% (2023) and 30% (2024).

Exmateriae: “30% for this seems wild to me. The halving has happened, the bull run will make the price go higher because of the relation between the number of BTC created and energy prices.”

Aggregate consensus from betting markets re: BTC…

Based on data from various betting/prediction markets, there is a mixed but mostly optimistic outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) for the remainder of 2024.

More people think BTC has higher upside than downside from its current price (~$68.35K) – and the consensus suggests BTC is likely to reach $80K to $90K by EOY.

• Notably Above $100K (Unlikely): The odds that Bitcoin passes a significantly higher threshold than $100K are fairly low. Probabilities range from ~12% to ~29% across platforms for figures like $120K, $130K, and $250K in 2024.

• Hitting $100K (Maybe): There is significant belief that Bitcoin (BTC) might hit $100K in 2024. The consensus across different platforms indicates ~35% to ~46% probability. Contracts for BTC hitting $100K in 2024 are ~44% with similar figures across platforms.

• $80K to $90K (Likely): There is an optimistic consensus that Bitcoin will reach $80K to $90K in 2024. Kalshi suggests ~77% probability of BTC hitting $80K and ~53% probability of BTC hitting $90K. Manifold Markets shows reasonable confidence as well with ~40% to ~60% odds of BTC reaching $85K to $90K.

• Below $50K (Possibly): As of April 2024, ~37% of Kalshi participants believe Bitcoin will drop below $50K by the end of 2024. Most (~56%) think it’ll stay above $50K for the rest of 2024.

Note: Aggregate betting/prediction data may be misleading. A better way to use this data might be evaluating only the most accurate forecasters (e.g. super-forecasters) rather than considering the general consensus.

My Prediction for Bitcoin price in 2024-2025 & rationale…

I think that Bitcoin’s price may chop sideways (slightly up, slightly down, etc.) for a while or upwards from its current price of ~$68K – potentially reaching $80K to $90K by EOY 2024 but no guarantees.

The perfect storm of: (1) an already-approved BTC ETF, (2) newly approved ETH ETFs, (3) Trump announcing that he supports crypto holders (allegedly wants the U.S. to become a leader in crypto) – could set the stage for $100K+ Bitcoin by EOY 2024 (but this would be ultra-bullish).

Additionally, we should consider that: (4) the economy remains strong, (5) there was a recent Bitcoin halving (2024), (6) institutional demand is increasing (diversification strategy), (7) FOMO & marketing for crypto ETFs and projects is ramping up across social media (e.g. Twitter/X) & mainstream news sites, and (8) Argentina is considering BTC as a reserve currency.

• Bitcoin (BTC) ETF (approved): The approval of a Bitcoin ETF will likely be a significant driver of Bitcoin (BTC) price growth in 2024-2025. This legitimizes Bitcoin in the eyes of mainstream financial institutions, consumers outside of crypto who want easy exposure, and retail investors who want additional protection (vs. self-custody).

• Bitcoin halving (2024): The 2024 Bitcoin halving is expected to create a supply shock by reducing the block reward. Historically this has led to price increases due to the supply reduction and consistent or growing demand.

• Institutional demand: Institutions will likely continue adding Bitcoin ETF to their balance sheets for the sake of diversifying into a novel asset class (cryptocurrency). Some perceive Bitcoin as “digital gold” or as having the potential to become “digital gold” in the future.

• Market conditions (bullish): Current economic conditions support higher valuations and increased investment flows into assets like Bitcoin. Positive market sentiment and rising asset prices are conducive to Bitcoin price appreciation. (The ETF approvals, halving, Trump endorsement – all contribute.)

• Perceptions of BTC: Most perceive Bitcoin as the leader in crypto, digital gold, deflationary (only 21 million Bitcoins), a potential inflation hedge, and as having zero competition. Bitcoin also has the strongest network effects of any crypto asset.

• Trump & Biden (presidential race): Trump publicly announced a pro-crypto stance suggesting that he wants U.S. to lead in crypto innovation and that he’ll protect crypto holders from Elizabeth Warren and her goons. The Biden campaign has put “feelers” out re: crypto and may become more pro-crypto as well in attempt to not let Trump steal votes here. (That said, most crypto people don’t like Biden – as he had plenty of time to acknowledge crypto and put pressure on gov orgs for regulatory clarity but failed). Any presidential candidate who wants crypto people on their side should abolish taxes on staking rewards.

• Crypto sentiment (bullish): We are on a crypto bull run, ETH ETFs were unexpectedly approved (should increase crypto inflows – indirectly bullish for BTC), and institutions may start taking bigger positions in the crypto space. This combo of crypto price appreciation and positive sentiment may send BTC’s price to new ATHs.

• FOMO & marketing: The ramping up of FOMO and marketing of crypto on social media (e.g. X/Twitter), Reddit, TikTok, etc. and mainstream news organizations (TV & digital publications) can drive up retail interest and cause price spikes. The younger generations don’t want to miss out on memecoin gains and others don’t want to be left in the dust when institutions dive in.

• Foreign countries (reserve currency & balance sheets): Argentina is considering adopting Bitcoin as a reserve currency mostly because they believe BTC could be a hedge against its ~276% inflation rate. President Javier Milei has shown interest in Bitcoin and initiated discussions with El Salvador to learn from its adoption experience. There is a campaign underway to persuade the Swiss National Bank to add Bitcoin to its balance sheets.

• Betting markets & analysts: Professional analysts (financial/crypto) and betting markets suggest that Bitcoin is likely to increase in price over 2024-2025. These are individuals who are putting their money and/or reputations on the line to make these predictions. On average, they suggest “price go up.”

How high will the price of Bitcoin (BTC) go before EOY 2024 & into 2025?

Do you think Bitcoin (BTC) will reach another new all-time high by EOY 2024?

How high do you think the price of Bitcoin (BTC) will reach by EOY 2024?

What do you think are the most significant catalysts for the spike in Bitcoin (BTC) price?

Do you think the price of Bitcoin (BTC) will be higher in 2025 vs. 2024? (If so, how high do you predict the price of BTC will spike in 2025?)

What is the underlying rationale behind your price prediction? Did a number just pop into your head or do you have some specific methodology that you use? (Explain)