AI (GPT-4 & Claude 3 Opus) NBA Playoff Predictions (2024)
Comparing GPT-4 & Claude 3 Opus to my "gut shot" picks for the 2024 NBA Playoffs...
I consulted 2 of the leading AIs (GPT-4 & Claude 3 Opus) to determine how they’d make predictions for the 2024 NBA Playoffs.
I prompted them each to come up with an optimal formula to accurately predict NBA Playoff winners (round-by-round) before the start of the playoffs and told them that I would provide any requested data.
GPT-4 Formula (NBA Playoffs 2024)
“Creating an optimal prediction formula for the 2024 NBA playoffs involves identifying key performance metrics that historically correlate strongly with postseason success.”
Win-Loss Record (20%): This basic metric is a strong indicator of overall team performance and success. A team's ability to win games consistently during the regular season is often a precursor to playoff success.
Net Rating (20%): Net rating (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) provides a comprehensive measure of a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency.
Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of Key Players (15%): PER is a summary measure of a player's per-minute production. Since stars often determine playoff outcomes, the PER of the top three players on each team can be a crucial metric.
Injury Status (15%): The health of key players can significantly alter the capabilities of a team. Adjustments based on the injury status leading into the playoffs are essential.
Previous Playoff Experience (10%): Teams and players with deep playoff runs in previous seasons often have a mental and tactical advantage, particularly in high-pressure situations.
Defensive Efficiency Rating (10%): Defense tends to play a pivotal role in the playoffs. A team’s ability to limit opponents' scoring can be more crucial in the playoffs than during the regular season.
Three-Point Shooting Percentage (10%): This metric has become increasingly important in modern basketball. Teams that shoot well from beyond the arc spread the defense and typically perform better.
This predictive model assigns a total of 100% weight across these metrics, emphasizing overall team performance (net rating and win-loss record), individual player impact (PER and injury status), and strategic aspects (playoff experience and defense).
By focusing on these key areas, the model aims to capture the most influential factors in determining playoff success.
Formula Rankings
1. Denver Nuggets: 23.109
2. Philadelphia 76ers: 22.957
3. Oklahoma City Thunder: 23.005
4. Boston Celtics: 22.556
5. Milwaukee Bucks: 22.471
6. LA Clippers: 21.791
7. Phoenix Suns: 21.414
8. Minnesota Timberwolves: 20.437
9. New York Knicks: 20.314
10. Cleveland Cavaliers: 19.928
11. New Orleans Pelicans: 19.743
12. Los Angeles Lakers: 19.517
13. Dallas Mavericks: 19.206
14. Sacramento Kings: 18.922
15. Indiana Pacers: 18.645
16. Miami Heat: 18.351
17. Chicago Bulls: 18.074
18. Atlanta Hawks: 17.783
19. Orlando Magic: 17.506
20. Golden State Warriors: 17.214
East
Round 1
· Celtics (22.556) > Heat (18.351)
· 76ers (22.957) > Knicks (20.314)
· Bucks (22.471) > Pacers (18.645)
· Cavaliers (19.928) > Magic (17.506)
Round 2
· 76ers (22.957) > Cavaliers (19.928)
· Celtics (22.556) > Bucks (22.471)
Round 3
· Celtics (22.556) > 76ers (22.957)
West
Round 1
· Nuggets (23.109) > Lakers (19.517)
· Thunder (23.005) > Pelicans (19.743)
· Clippers (21.791) > Mavericks (19.206)
· Suns (21.414) > Timberwolves (20.437)
Round 2
· Nuggets (23.109) > Suns (21.414)
· Thunder (23.005) > Clippers (21.791)
Round 3
· Nuggets (23.109) > Thunder (23.005)
NBA Finals
· Celtics (22.556) vs Nuggets (23.109)
Champion: Denver Nuggets
Claude 3 Opus Formula (NBA Playoffs 2024)
This formula places emphasis on net rating, which captures a team's overall performance, and star power, which acknowledges the impact of top players in high-pressure situations.
The weights for offensive and defensive ratings are now equal, recognizing the importance of both scoring efficiency and defensive prowess in the playoffs.
Health remains a minor factor, as it can still influence a team's success.
Team Score = (0.40 × Net Rating) + (0.25 × Star Power) + (0.15 × Offensive Rating) + (0.15 × Defensive Rating) + (0.05 × Health)
Metrics & weights:
1. Net Rating (40%): The difference between a team's offensive and defensive ratings, indicating overall team performance.
2. Star Power (25%): The presence of top-tier players who can significantly impact the game, based on their regular-season performance (e.g., All-NBA selections, MVP candidates).
3. Offensive Rating (15%): A team's ability to score efficiently.
4. Defensive Rating (15%): A team's ability to limit opponents' scoring opportunities.
5. Health (5%): The availability and fitness of key players heading into the playoffs.
To use this formula:
Normalize each metric across all teams (scale them to a common range, e.g., 0-1).
Calculate the Team Score for each team using the normalized metrics and their respective weights.
Compare the Team Scores of the two teams in a matchup, and predict the team with the higher score to win the series.
Additional considerations
Recent performance: Consider giving slightly more weight to a team's performance in the second half of the regular season, as it may be a better indicator of their current form heading into the playoffs.
Head-to-head record: If the teams have a significantly lopsided head-to-head record (e.g., 3-1 or 4-0) during the regular season, consider this as a potential tiebreaker or slight adjustment to the prediction.
Injuries: If a key player is injured or expected to miss a significant portion of the series, manually adjust the prediction based on the anticipated impact of their absence.
Keep in mind that no formula can perfectly predict the outcome of every series, and upsets can always happen.
First Round
Celtics (0.973) > Heat (0.571)
The Celtics, with their league-best net rating and the star power of Jayson Tatum, are heavily favored to win this series. The Heat's strong defense will keep some games competitive, but the Celtics' overall talent should prove too much.
Knicks (0.831) > 76ers (0.771)
This series features a matchup between two strong teams, with the Knicks holding a slight edge due to their superior net rating and the presence of Jalen Brunson. The 76ers, led by Joel Embiid, will put up a tough fight, but the Knicks' balanced attack and home-court advantage should help them prevail.
Bucks (with Lillard, without Antetokounmpo) (0.560) > Pacers (0.557)
With Lillard playing most of the series and Antetokounmpo out, the Bucks have a slight advantage over the Pacers. Lillard's scoring and playmaking will be crucial for the Bucks, while the Pacers will rely on their balanced roster to make this a competitive series. The Bucks' experience and Lillard's presence should be enough to edge out the Pacers.
Cavaliers (0.634) > Magic (0.625)
The Cavaliers, with their strong defense and the star power of Donovan Mitchell, are favored to win this series. The young and talented Magic will put up a fight, but the Cavaliers' experience and superior net rating should help them advance.
Thunder (0.877) > Pelicans (0.674)
The Thunder, led by the impressive Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and their strong net rating, are predicted to win this series. The Pelicans, with their balanced roster and Zion Williamson's return, will make this a competitive series, but the Thunder's overall talent and home-court advantage should help them come out on top.
Nuggets (0.786) > Lakers (0.527)
The Nuggets, with the star power of Nikola Jokic and their high offensive rating, are favored to win this series. The Lakers, led by LeBron James and Anthony Davis, will put up a fight, but the Nuggets' superior net rating and overall team performance should help them advance.
Timberwolves (0.819) > Suns (0.686)
The Timberwolves, despite missing Karl-Anthony Towns, have a strong net rating and the emerging star Anthony Edwards. They are predicted to win this series against the Suns, who will rely on Devin Booker's scoring prowess. The Timberwolves' superior defensive rating and overall team balance should help them overcome the Suns.
Clippers (0.685) > Mavericks (0.591)
The Clippers, with the return of Kawhi Leonard and their strong offensive rating, are favored to win this series. The Mavericks, led by the incredible Luka Doncic, will make this a tough series, but the Clippers' superior net rating and Leonard's presence should help them advance.
Second Round
· Celtics (0.973) > Cavaliers (0.634)
· Bucks (0.893) > Knicks (0.831)
· Thunder (0.877) > Clippers (0.685)
· Timberwolves (0.819) > Nuggets (0.786)
Conference Finals
· Celtics (0.973) > Bucks (0.893)
· Thunder (0.877) > Timberwolves (0.819)
NBA Finals
· Celtics (0.973) > Thunder (0.877)
Champion: Celtics
Claude 3 Opus (Alternative Prediction Formula)
I told Claude 3 to come up with a second prediction formula/algorithm for the NBA 2023-2024 Playoffs with the intention of being as accurate as possible in picking winners.
It considered a combination of: regular season performance metrics, recent performance, and matchup-specific factors.
Variables & weights
Net Rating (25%): A team's overall efficiency, calculated as the difference between points scored and allowed per 100 possessions.
Recent Performance (20%): A team's record over the last 30 days of the regular season, indicating momentum and current form.
Playoff Experience (15%): The combined number of playoff games played by the team's core players, as experience is valuable in high-pressure situations.
Star Power (15%): The presence of top-tier players who can significantly impact the game, based on their regular-season performance (e.g., All-NBA selections, MVP candidates).
Defensive Rating (10%): A team's ability to limit opponents' scoring, as strong defense is crucial in the playoffs.
Head-to-Head Record (10%): The regular-season record between the two teams facing each other in a playoff series, indicating potential matchup advantages.
Home Court Advantage (5%): The higher-seeded team's advantage of playing more games at home in a playoff series.
The problem with trying to get Claude to use these variables and weights is that it needed head-to-head data for each round AND it generally failed to update its numeric scores for each team (round-by-round). It also failed to account for availability of stars.
With some revisions I had it on the right track, but my usage limits were reached – so couldn’t perform the round-by-round calculations (no way was I going to waste time doing this manually).
My Predictions (Gut Shot): 2024 NBA Playoffs
I’m just doing some gut-shot type predictions for the playoffs as well… I want to see how well I do in my pre-playoff predictions.
Without watching much NBA this year, I assume the Denver Nuggets will be back in the finals (after beating the Heat 4-1 in 2023).
Jokic, Murray, et al. are too difficult to stop in the playoffs, are backed by excellent coaching, and they basically have the same proven team of last year to get it done again.
I’m skeptical that the OKC Thunder make a deep run due to lack of experience – and essentially coming out of nowhere… but I hope I’m wrong.
I think Boston Celtics are the best team in the league this year – so it should be Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics – with Boston taking home the title.
Round 1
Celtics vs. Heat: The Celtics have the best team in the league (in my opinion) and should have no issue dominating the first round of the playoffs with home court advantage. Heat have been playing good ball lately. They barely lost to the 76ers in the “play-in” game (tightly contested) and could win a couple against Boston. Boston gets the job done unless “playoff Jimmy” goes bananas.
Bucks vs. Pacers: The Pacers gave the Bucks some issues earlier in the year – then fell off the map – then hopped back on the map. The Pacers have a legitimate shot to win this series with Dame dinged up and Giannis out for the month of April (minimum). I’ll take the Bucks on a gut-shot pick to get the job done. Unfortunately Giannis might return prematurely, aggravate his injury, then Bucks might be toast in the second round (though this could happen either way).
Cavs vs. Magic: I thought the Cavs would clean-up and make a serious run last season and was totally wrong (they got crushed). Magic are a good young team (haven’t watched much of them). Magic actually have the momentum in the past month (9-5) compared to the Cavs (7-10). The teams played each other 4 times and records were 2-2 (double digit wins in every game). This may be the toughest series of the first round to predict… Cavs flopped last year. I think the Magic get the job done on the basis of momentum.
Knicks vs. 76ers: Love what I’ve seen outta Brunson this season… Knicks are finally playing quality basketball. Randle is out – but Barrett, DiVincenzo, Anunoby, etc. should pick up the slack. I would take 76ers without second thought if Embiid were 100% - but he doesn’t look near 100%. 76ers roster with Embiid, Maxey, Harris, etc. and coaching from Nurse could give the Knicks some trouble… rolling the dice and going 76ers here.
Thunder vs. Pelicans: Thunder are the darkhorse nobody expected this season… shot out of a cannon from irrelevance to top seed. Gilgeous-Alexander is playing near MVP-caliber ball and is backed by Williams, Holmgren, Giddey, etc. I think there’s an outside chance of an upset due to inexperience of Thunder in the post-season, but think they get it done in the first round with home court advantage.
Nuggets vs. Lakers: This is arguably the worst possible draw for the Lakers in the first round. I honestly think they’d have rather played the Thunder. I’m taking the defending champs to get the job done – only because they have such a solid roster. I give the Lakers an outside chance here to put up a good fight and possibly pull off the upset… just think unlikely unless someone like Joker gets injured.
T-Wolves vs. Suns: Another extremely difficult series to predict. T-Wolves rank higher offensively since KAT’s injury (16 games) and have allowed 6.9 fewer points than the league average per 100 possessions… they’re playing lockdown defense. Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert are getting the job done. Suns have Durant, Booker, and Beal. I picked Suns to make a deep run last season based on KD/Book but they are top-heavy (too many iso/ball-centric scorers and poor defense). I’ll take the Suns in this series mostly because Suns won all 3 matchups against them this season by double digits (and 2 of them were recent).
Clippers vs. Mavs: I know the Clippers have been extremely consistent all year in the standings and that Doncic has had an MVP-caliber season for the Mavs. Mavs have been the league’s most improved team since the trade deadline in win percentage and point differential per 100 possessions. Mavs have also been the best team in the league in close games. Clippers beat them twice back in 2023 – but that’s irrelevant now. A coinflip type series on paper – will roll the dice and go Mavs due to momentum and star power.
Round 2
East
Celtics vs. Magic: Met 3 times this season… Boston won 2 of the 3. Boston has the better team and is more experienced. Good season for a young Orlando Magic team – but the road likely ends here… Celtics win at least by a game score of 4-2.
Bucks vs. 76ers: If the Bucks get healthy (big “if”) – they can win this series. The Bucks beat 76ers all 3 times they met this year (granted Embiid was sidelined). Bucks will have home court advantage in this series which will help. Embiid isn’t 100% and is injury prone… Bucks can probably pull this series off and advance, but they’ve been too inconsistent. I’m going 76ers again here for another upset.
West
Thunder vs. Mavs: Thunder have been among the most consistent teams in the NBA all season. Mavs are spearheaded by the 2-headed monster that is Luka & Kyrie on offense with Hardaway Jr. making some contributions. Mavs have been one of the hottest teams in the league lately, but the Thunder handled them easily in March and April… I think Thunder win this series.
Suns vs. Nuggets: The teams met 3 times this season, twice in March – and Suns took both (one was an OT win). Suns seem to match-up well with the Nuggets. I think Nuggets turn things up a notch and take the series in 7 games, mostly due to home court advantage.
Round 3
Celtics vs. 76ers: 76ers could give the Celtics a bit of trouble if Embiid’s health continues improving throughout the postseason. I’m skeptical that Embiid’s knee will “improve” though – and think it’s possible that it could actually worsen. 76ers will be softened up a bit for Celtics to crush them in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Thunder vs. Nuggets: Thunder won 3 of 4 matchups against Nuggets this season (with last meeting in January). Both teams have momentum entering the playoffs – and this series could go either way. I’m leaning Nuggets due to experience and the fact that they’ve proven they can get the job done postseason… Thunder are a bit too young to trust postseason. Nuggets in 7.
Championship: Celtics vs. Nuggets
These are the 2 betting favorites to make the finals – so it won’t surprise most people if this ends up being the NBA Finals for 2023-2024.
Celtics are favored to win – and I think they should be.
Both Celtics and Nuggets have been dominant this year – but the Celtics have been in an entirely different realm of dominance for most of the regular season.
The Celtics have a higher ELO score (1742) than the Nuggets (1663) and the highest point differential per game (Diff/G) at 11.3… the Nuggets are at 5.3.
That said, the Nuggets beat the Celtics in both meetings this year (2-0) once in January (102-100) and again in March (115-109) – so they might match up well with Boston.
Celtics: Tatum, Brown, Porzingis, White, Holiday, Pritchard, Hauser, Horford, etc.
Nuggets: Jokic, Murray, Porter Jr., Gordon, Jackson, Caldwell-Pope (KCP), Braun, Watson, etc.
Would I be surprised if the Nuggets won this series? Nope. But I’m sticking with my pre-season prediction and going Boston… no logical reason to pick against them… going Boston in 7.
Winner: Celtics
NBA Records (Past 2 months & 1 month)
I checked into the records of playoff-bound teams for the past 2 months and past 1 month – to determine which teams are “hot” with momentum.
Obviously we must consider strength-of-schedule (SOS) to some extent, but I don’t think it’s generally good to pick teams that have performed poorly over the past couple months.
Celtics and Nuggets are right on “cue” with what we’d expect from the favorites in each conference – the hottest teams (respectively) in the past 2-month span.
Past 2 months
Celtics (21-6)
Nuggets (21-6)
Thunder (20-8)
Mavs (18-9)
Warriors (19-10)
Lakers (17-9)
T-Wolves (17-10)
Knicks (17-10)
Magic (17-10)
Pacers (16-10)
Rockets (17-11)
Heat (16-11)
Suns (16-11)
Pelicans (16-11)
Bucks (14-12)
Kings (15-13)
76ers (15-13)
Past Month
Celtics (13-2)
Thunder (11-4)
Nuggets (11-4)
Mavs (11-4)
Pelicans (10-4)
Knicks (9-5)
Magic (9-5)
Lakers (9-5)
Kings (10-6)
T-Wolves (9-6)
Clippers (10-7)
Bucks (8-6)
2023-2024 NBA Championship Odds (Entering Playoffs)
Some predictable and unpredictable odds for bettors. Not much value on betting on the Celtics or Nuggets… sure they are favorites to win, but a lot of risk to take on.
Perhaps the most undervalued team to bet on would be the Thunder. Do I think they’ll win it? No, but they have home court advantage and have been consistently dominant all season – so gotta give them an outside chance.
1. Celtics (+145)
2. Nuggets (+300)
3. Clippers (+1200)
4. Bucks (+1600)
5. Mavericks (+1600)
6. Thunder (+1600)
7. 76ers (+1700)
8. Suns (+1900)
9. Lakers (+2000)
10. Timberwolves (+2500)
11. Knicks (+4000)
12. Cavaliers (+6500)
13. Heat (+9000)
14. Pacers (+10000)
15. Kings (+12000)
What are your round-by-round predictions for the NBA Playoffs (2023-2024)?
Please post in the comments so that we have them on record.
Which teams do you predict will meet in the championship?
Who wins the championship?