AI Crypto Predictions (2024-2025-2026 Cycle): Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, & Chainlink

o1-pro predicts how the crypto cycle will play out from 2024-2025/2026

I compiled data from past crypto cycles and the current state of crypto (price increases, momentum, on-chain metrics, off-chain metrics) along with economic data, political & regulatory development info.

This data was then fed into the most advanced AI (o1-pro) for synthesis to predict what’s most likely to happen (highest odds) this “cycle” with Bitcoin, Ethereum, plus other altcoins like Solana and Chainlink - in the form of a blueprint.

The blueprint builds upon historical patterns while acknowledging new cycle-specific themes (e.g. AI, RWAs, etc.).

Disclaimer: All projections are probabilistic. Actual outcomes will likely differ due to unpredictable market conditions, macro shocks, or policy failures. None of this is financial or investment advice. Historical data may not align with this current cycle.

Note: This was written on December 16, 2024. If you are reading this months from now, you’ll have more clarity about where the cycle is headed.

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Macro Conditions & Policy Environment (2024–2026) for the Bitcoin/Crypto “Bull Run”

1. Post-Halving Dynamics (April 2024): Historically, Bitcoin halving events precede major bull runs, with mania peaks typically 12–18 months after the halving. With the halving in April 2024, the most probable mania phase and peak likely occur around late 2025.

• Confidence: ~70% that historical halving-driven timing patterns roughly hold.

2. Pro-Crypto U.S. Administration (Trump 2024–2028): Potential legislation and executive actions (e.g., S.4912 Bitcoin Act for strategic BTC reserve, FIT21 Act (H.R. 4763) for regulatory clarity, tax incentives) could boost institutional confidence.

• Odds pro-crypto policies materialize meaningfully by mid/late 2025: ~60%.

• If successful: Add ~5–10% higher probability to upper-range price targets and possibly extend mania duration slightly. This might also slightly reduce post-peak downside as a stronger baseline demand and regulatory clarity persists.

3. Global Liquidity & Rate Cuts: Mild rate cuts and stable inflation (~2.5–3%) by 2025 create a risk-friendly environment. With no immediate macro crisis indicated, risk assets (including crypto) may flourish.

• Confidence: ~70% in supportive macro conditions into 2025.

4. Stablecoin/Regulatory Shocks Risk (20%): There’s a ~20% chance a stablecoin crisis or unexpected regulatory clampdown short-circuits mania. If this occurs, peaks may underwhelm and appear earlier than anticipated.

Overall Backdrop Confidence: ~70%

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Crypto Cycle Timing & Probability Scenarios

1. Central Scenario (Peak in Q4 2025): Odds: ~60%.

• Aligns with historical halving lag (12–18 months post-halving), plus adequate time for ETFs, policies, and narratives (e.g., RWA, AI integration) to mature into mania.

• The presence of supportive policies and institutional capital is more likely to unfold steadily through 2025, climaxing in late Q4 2025 mania.

2. Earlier Peak (Q3 2025): Odds: ~20%.

• If policies are implemented quickly, U.S. BTC reserve accumulation starts early in 2025, and hyper-FOMO sets in sooner, mania could peak a quarter earlier.

3. Delayed Peak (Q1 2026): Odds: ~12–15%.

• If regulatory changes and institutional adoption roll out more slowly, maintaining bullish sentiment longer, mania might stretch into early 2026.

• Pro-crypto policies could keep optimism high, delaying the top.

4. Abnormal/Fizzled Cycle (Peak before mid-2025 or no big mania): Odds: ~10%.

• A macro shock, major regulatory setback, or stablecoin meltdown could prevent a robust mania, leading to an earlier, weaker peak or a rolling top without dramatic euphoria.

Confidence in Timing Ranges: ~70% that peak occurs in H2 2025, acknowledging ~30% total odds for earlier/later/abnormal scenarios.

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Price Targets & Probabilities for Major Cryptocurrencies (2024-2025/2026)

1. Bitcoin (BTC)

Current Reference (Late 2024): ~$105k.

• < $150k Peak: ~20% if cycle fizzles or macro shock hits.

• $150k–$180k Peak: ~20% for a moderately bullish but not explosive mania.

• $180k–$200k Peak: ~20% solid mania scenario aligning well with historical pattern and halving effect.

• $200k–$220k Peak: ~25% central bullish scenario with robust ETF inflows, supportive policies, and typical euphoric conditions.

• > $220k Peak: ~15% extreme mania scenario (unprecedented retail FOMO, strong policy success, global narratives like AI/RWA all catching fire).

Most Likely BTC Peak Range: $180k–$220k (~45–50% combined).

Confidence Level: ~60% in this broad range.